Exclusive The Blazers Offense is Stepping Up Without McCollum & Nurkic

[swish3]

Meyers ORtg has been the best for the Blazers all season and seems to be because of his leading 3P%, TS%, and points/FGA. The combination of Enes and Meyers at Center can and should be bringing more than 30 points per game, is what we need in the absence of Nurk, and can translate into wins. Let's see it happen now and through the Playoffs!

 

[tlongII]

Meyers ORtg has been the best for the Blazers all season and seems to be because of his leading 3P%, TS%, and points/FGA. The combination of Enes and Meyers at Center can and should be bringing more than 30 points per game, is what we need in the absence of Nurk, and can translate into wins. Let's see it happen now and through the Playoffs!

I disagree. The combination should be Enes and Zach at Center.

 

[swish3]

I disagree. The combination should be Enes and Zach at Center.

No. The combinations should include Zach at Forward with both Enes and Meyers, played to maximize scoring talent and defense. Without Meyers, you are overlooking the leading scoring talent on the Blazers (notice the 129 ORtg) who together with Enes can provide wins to finish off with 4 wins for the season and winning in the Playoffs.

 

[andalusian]

Meyers ORTG is as good as it is because the Blazers coaching staff know enough to play him only when he is effective. He is not a guy that you throw for tons of time and expect the results to stay the same.

When the Blazers last tried to feature him (2015-2016) his ORTG was not good. He is good in spots, not as a general purpose C.

 

[swish3]

I disagree Andalusian. Meyers ORtg of 129, swish3 shooting of 45%, and TS% of 65.4 along with his excellent play in the Jan 30 win over UTAH Jazz are why Meyers ought to be playing 20+ min per game and having at least 6 assist passes to him per game. Meyers should be averaging 12+ PPG to complement Enes 12+ PPG and aiming to increase the Center total to 30+ per game that will mean increased offensive power that can win the Championship.

 

[tlongII]

No. The combinations should include Zach at Forward with both Enes and Meyers, played to maximize scoring talent and defense. Without Meyers, you are overlooking the leading scoring talent on the Blazers (notice the 129 ORtg) who together with Enes can provide wins to finish off with 4 wins for the season and winning in the Playoffs.

No. Zach is needed at center for defensive purposes. By playing Zach at center we maximize our ability to achieve playoff success with the ultimate goal of winning the championship!

 

[swish3]

Zach at Forward will give the same blocking power, and along side of Enes or Meyers gives us a potent and improving defense. Meyers and Enes are showing defensive improvement, and can be coached to increasing performance they learn from playing with and communicating with Zach. As all 3 of them step up to win these games in honor of Nurk, let's look for his helpful influence in the improved Blazers who can win the Playoffs.

 

[bobf]

In terms of offensive rating, I believe there is a different calculation for player ORTG and team ORTG, this is just going over the team's offensive rating with Kanter. Like I said not taking a side, for one we should see them face some more teams actually trying...

Ah, I see. Well still I think it's a small sample size and perhaps against weaker than average teams.

 

[wizenheimer]

I just did this quickly, so maybe my numbers are off a smidge ....

in the last 10 games without CJ, Portland is averaging 25.4 assists a game. With CJ, Portland averaged 22.8 assists a game. With CJ, Portland ranked 25th in the NBA in assists/game. Without him they would rank 13th. Considering that Nurkic missed the last 6 of those games, Portland's assist number, with Nurk & without CJ, could be around 27 which would rank them in the 3rd thru 5th range

obviously, assists/game isn't a guaranteed correlation to wins; New Orleans ranks 3rd and Washington ranks 5th, but 7 of the top 10 teams in assists are playoff teams with Golden State and Denver leading the league. Also, Portland has had a fairly soft schedule over those 10 games and it's usually the better teams that offer more defensive resistance to an opponent running their offense. Still, those assist numbers tend to buttress what our eyes have seen in terms of the improved ball and player movement without CJ's ball-stopping offense. And the fact that the Blazers are 9-2 this year without CJ seemingly supports the notion

 

[e_blazer]

I just did this quickly, so maybe my numbers are off a smidge ....

in the last 10 games without CJ, Portland is averaging 25.4 assists a game. With CJ, Portland averaged 22.8 assists a game. With CJ, Portland ranked 25th in the NBA in assists/game. Without him they would rank 13th. Considering that Nurkic missed the last 6 of those games, Portland's assist number, with Nurk & without CJ, could be around 27 which would rank them in the 3rd thru 5th range

obviously, assists/game isn't a guaranteed correlation to wins; New Orleans ranks 3rd and Washington ranks 5th, but 7 of the top 10 teams in assists are playoff teams with Golden State and Denver leading the league. Also, Portland has had a fairly soft schedule over those 10 games and it's usually the better teams that offer more defensive resistance to an opponent running their offense. Still, those assist numbers tend to buttress what our eyes have seen in terms of the improved ball and player movement without CJ's ball-stopping offense. And the fact that the Blazers are 9-2 this year without CJ seemingly supports the notion

In the last ten games the Blazers have played a lot of lower tier teams. Last night was an example of what the Blazers and Dame will see in the playoffs: constant double-teaming to try to limit Lillard from going off. That’s where CJ’s value comes into play.

 

[wizenheimer]

In the last ten games the Blazers have played a lot of lower tier teams. Last night was an example of what the Blazers and Dame will see in the playoffs: constant double-teaming to try to limit Lillard from going off. That’s where CJ’s value comes into play.

yeah...I know...that's the theory at least; CJ will "carry" the team when Dame is being pressed and doubled and jumped. Except, it seems the only thing CJ can elevate is his numbers, not the team. CJ had a great series against the Pels last year; so did Aminu for that matter. But it didn't make a difference because CJ doesn't make any teammate better or open up things for them on offense. His numbers look good, but the team...not so much

this Achilles heel was exposed in the playoffs last year and it sure doesn't seem realistic to think that Hood and Curry are the solution when Napier and Connaughton weren't

 

[e_blazer]

yeah...I know...that's the theory at least; CJ will "carry" the team when Dame is being pressed and doubled and jumped. Except, it seems the only thing CJ can elevate is his numbers, not the team. CJ had a great series against the Pels last year; so did Aminu for that matter. But it didn't make a difference because CJ doesn't make any teammate better or open up things for them on offense. His numbers look good, but the team...not so much

this Achilles heel was exposed in the playoffs last year and it sure doesn't seem realistic to think that Hood and Curry are the solution when Napier and Connaughton weren't

Okay, I was buying most of what you were selling until that last sentence. Napier and Pat do not equate to Seth and Hood in any basketball universe.

I’m not a diehard CJ fan. I appreciate his amazing offensive skills, but he certainly has his shortcomings. This summer, if NO can make a deal that includes CJ for someone the caliber of AD, I’m down with that. The obsession that some have for trading him for just about anyone I don’t get. Right now, though, he’s a talented player and the Blazers’ odds of winning in the playoffs go up if he’s able to play and contribute at something close to full power.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

yeah...I know...that's the theory at least; CJ will "carry" the team when Dame is being pressed and doubled and jumped. Except, it seems the only thing CJ can elevate is his numbers, not the team. CJ had a great series against the Pels last year; so did Aminu for that matter. But it didn't make a difference because CJ doesn't make any teammate better or open up things for them on offense. His numbers look good, but the team...not so much

this Achilles heel was exposed in the playoffs last year and it sure doesn't seem realistic to think that Hood and Curry are the solution when Napier and Connaughton weren't

CJ didnt have a great series against the pels last year he was pretty subpar and then had one good game at the end. Also for what its worth Hood and Curry are better then Pat and Napier.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

yeah...I know...that's the theory at least; CJ will "carry" the team when Dame is being pressed and doubled and jumped. Except, it seems the only thing CJ can elevate is his numbers, not the team. CJ had a great series against the Pels last year; so did Aminu for that matter. But it didn't make a difference because CJ doesn't make any teammate better or open up things for them on offense. His numbers look good, but the team...not so much

this Achilles heel was exposed in the playoffs last year and it sure doesn't seem realistic to think that Hood and Curry are the solution when Napier and Connaughton weren't

Also in my opinion while we all know they really stifled the Blazers offense the thing that doesnt get talked about as much is the pelicans punked the Blazers guards on defense, Holiday, Rondo, Moore all of em basically said we can get whatever shot we want they cant stop it and they were right.

 

[blue9]

CJ didnt have a great series against the pels last year he was pretty subpar and then had one good game at the end. Also for what its worth Hood and Curry are better then Pat and Napier.

I think Hood is a significant upgrade over Pat. Seth is kind of a sideways move from Shabazz - a better shooter, but worse elsewhere. With Terry's offense I think Seth is a moderately better fit, but overall they're roughly equal in their level of play.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

I think Hood is a significant upgrade over Pat. Seth is kind of a sideways move from Shabazz - a better shooter, but worse elsewhere. With Terry's offense I think Seth is a moderately better fit, but overall they're roughly equal in their level of play.

I think Seth is better at knowing his role, Shabazz would come in at times and try to do things CJ / Dame can do. He wasnt able to do that. You’re overall assessment is probably right though.

 

[Pinwheel1]

this Achilles heel was exposed in the playoffs last year and it sure doesn't seem realistic to think that Hood and Curry are the solution when Napier and Connaughton weren't

So what is your solution? I am not disagreeing with you, just wondering what your suggestion is.

For me the solution has nothing to do with CJ.....or any other guard who would replace CJ at SG. For me it has to come from the forward position. There has to be a 3rd guy on the floor who can break down the defense and attack the basket (and finish) And it really shouldn't be a 3rd guard, but if that is all we have then Hood is the likely candidate as he can cover some SFs. If we are playing the Jazz for example I think Hood can cover Ingles. Joe takes 7-10 3 pointer a game so a big part of his game is on the perimeter.

It hurts not having Nurk because he is a big target for Dame to pass to, and a good passer who can then get it to he 3rd option if CJ is covered.

 

[hoopsjock]

So what is your solution? I am not disagreeing with you, just wondering what your suggestion is.

For me the solution has nothing to do with CJ.....or any other guard who would replace CJ at SG. For me it has to come from the forward position. There has to be a 3rd guy on the floor who can break down the defense and attack the basket (and finish) And it really shouldn't be a 3rd guard, but if that is all we have then Hood is the likely candidate as he can cover some SFs. If we are playing the Jazz for example I think Hood can cover Ingles. Joe takes 7-10 3 pointer a game so a big part of his game is on the perimeter.

It hurts not having Nurk because he is a big target for Dame to pass to, and a good passer who can then get it to he 3rd option if CJ is covered.

This is one of the examples of where Stotts is frustrating to me. The Blazers usually run pick and roll on the top out past the 3 point line. It is their go to play and they run it a lot. It's pretty effective most of the time during the regular season and can be effective in the post season. The problem is that when it isn't effective and the other team is selling out to stop Dame, we keep running it. I've even heard Stotts say "Well, we aren't going to go away from what got us here" or things like that.

Now what can we do to combat that?

Have Dame try to get by his defender without a pick? He can do this against most teams. It's also more obvious if they still try to send a double team so Dame has more time to react and maneuver around it. In theory this should lead to one person being unguarded.

Initiate the offense through Kanter? I felt like Kanter was scoring in just about every post up situation last night but for some reason didn't get a lot of post touches in the 2nd half. This was also effective with Nurk in the 4th quarter of game 4 in the Pelicans series. This option is even better if the other team has to start doubling Kanter in the post.

This may sound funny, but what about just getting shots up? When Kanter is in the game he is dominant on the offensive glass. We had 14 turnovers last night, many of which were just throwing bad passes or dropping the ball off a good pass. Limiting turnovers and getting a shot attempt every possession, even if it's a bad shot allows Kanter a chance at an easy put back.

Of course there are lots of other options too. Playing Dame more off the ball. Running him through picks like a JJ Redick would. Have someone like Layman or Collins be the screener and if their man overplays they dive to the basket for an easy 2. Wait to play pick and roll on the side where it's harder to trap and defend instead of the top of the key. How about pushing the ball up the court faster so the defense is scrambling and doesn't get set every time?

 

[tester551]

In the last ten games the Blazers have played a lot of lower tier teams. Last night was an example of what the Blazers and Dame will see in the playoffs: constant double-teaming to try to limit Lillard from going off. That’s where CJ’s value comes into play.

That's where his value SHOULD come into play. However, I don't think CJ is good enough to propel Portland into the second round.

 

[e_blazer]

That's where his value SHOULD come into play. However, I don't think CJ is good enough to propel Portland into the second round.

With Nurk down, it's certainly going to be tougher than it would have been. Still, are you going to argue that the team is better without CJ? It seems to me that the chances of success increase with a healthy CJ McCollum.

 

[BonesJones]

I just did this quickly, so maybe my numbers are off a smidge ....

in the last 10 games without CJ, Portland is averaging 25.4 assists a game. With CJ, Portland averaged 22.8 assists a game. With CJ, Portland ranked 25th in the NBA in assists/game. Without him they would rank 13th. Considering that Nurkic missed the last 6 of those games, Portland's assist number, with Nurk & without CJ, could be around 27 which would rank them in the 3rd thru 5th range

obviously, assists/game isn't a guaranteed correlation to wins; New Orleans ranks 3rd and Washington ranks 5th, but 7 of the top 10 teams in assists are playoff teams with Golden State and Denver leading the league. Also, Portland has had a fairly soft schedule over those 10 games and it's usually the better teams that offer more defensive resistance to an opponent running their offense. Still, those assist numbers tend to buttress what our eyes have seen in terms of the improved ball and player movement without CJ's ball-stopping offense. And the fact that the Blazers are 9-2 this year without CJ seemingly supports the notion

We've played a very easy schedule without C.J. though, so that's a big part of it.

 

[swish3]

The Apr 5 DEN game is the example of what to avoid because we stopped using the Center for shots, distribution, screens, and PNRs. In this game in which more swish3 scoring would have won it, we failed to use the best Blazer swish3 talent, which was critical in the 4th Q when we missed all 5 swish3 attempts. What should have been the decision, and should be for a win in the Apr 7 DEN game, is to game plan for 6 or more swish3 attempts by Meyers, who has the leading swish3, TS%, ORtg, and points/FGA to score an additional 9-12 points.

The problem is that there were 0 swish3 attempts, and there have been 0 passes to Meyers for catch and shoots on the arc, in that game, and only 1 shot each in the ATL, DET, and MIN games. When we take advantage of the scoring talent for scoring swish3s, we would have 9+ more points and the wins. The decision to have Simons, at 14% the lowest 3P% Blazer, shoot the swish3 just before the half instead of having 46.5% Meyers shoot it is the kind of coaching mistake that can and will result in losses instead of wins. For the next 2 games and the Playoffs, let's game plan for Dame, Rod, Chief, Mo, Evan, and Seth to look for Meyers who should be running the floor pattern of the early season and Jan 30 Jazz game to accomplish scoring, screens, spacing, and passing that has been successful, and to allow for fresh legs and hustle on the floor in the 4th Q to get these wins.

 

[wizenheimer]

Okay, I was buying most of what you were selling until that last sentence. Napier and Pat do not equate to Seth and Hood in any basketball universe.

I think you're overstating your case. Curry may fit better in the Stotts offense than Napier did, although Napier has a broader set of skills and was probably better on defense. Sure, Hood is better than Connaughton, but when you compare their advanced numbers, Hood isn't that much further ahead of Pat to talk about alternate universes. He can get some of his own offense though and that's catnip to Stotts

but that all misses my point and sorry if I wasn't clear: take Curry and Hood and replace Napier & Pat on last year's team and the Blazers still lose that series, and it still may have been a sweep. Teams don't win a playoff series with the 6th or 7th players in the rotation. They might win a game from that level, or not, but won't win a series. It has to happen at the top of the rotation. Dame-CJ-Nurk-Aminu needed to play better than AD-Holiday-Mirotic-Rondo but they didn't come close. The E'twaun Moore's and Ian Clark's and Rodney Hood's and Seth Curry's don't make up for what happens on top

So what is your solution? I am not disagreeing with you, just wondering what your suggestion is.

this year? without Nurkic there isn't a lot of hope. Having a healthy CJ for the playoffs should help some, but it won't be enough IMO

the solution last summer and this summer was/is pretty simple: add a high level talent; an all-star level talent and try and build a big-3 that complements each other with a minimum of redundancy. Portland needs an all-star level talent at the wing, a player who is consistently good on both ends of the floor, either at SG or SF. They don't have that but they do have redundancy in the Dame/CJ pairing and that's not optimal at all

now, I can't know absolutely for certain what the front office was doing and what was available to them. But we do have lots of circumstantial 'evidence' that Olshey has been trying to add that high-level talent with low-ball offers. we hear the Blazers offered their three 1sts in 2017 for Paul George but was holding CJ untouchable. It's likely he was trying the same scheme when Kawhi and Butler were available. Basically, those are offers going nowhere, not real offers because Portland's 'other' assets just aren't attractive. We've even heard that Zach is nearly untouchable too.

what wins in the playoffs is high-level talent and Portland only has one of those. Nurkic may have been getting there, but the Blazers need somebody at the wing, or maybe even at PF. CJ ain't it. PG13 would have been great; so would have Kawhi; maybe Blake Griffin. Maybe Portland has to take a step back before they can take two steps forward. Even healthy, this Blazer team was/is a pretender.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

yeah...I know...that's the theory at least; CJ will "carry" the team when Dame is being pressed and doubled and jumped. Except, it seems the only thing CJ can elevate is his numbers, not the team. CJ had a great series against the Pels last year; so did Aminu for that matter. But it didn't make a difference because CJ doesn't make any teammate better or open up things for them on offense. His numbers look good, but the team...not so much

this Achilles heel was exposed in the playoffs last year and it sure doesn't seem realistic to think that Hood and Curry are the solution when Napier and Connaughton weren't

Didn't the starters play pretty well in the 4/5 Denver loss? Wasn't it the bench who had everybody with a negative plus/minus? Why are we pinning that loss on how the offense responds to Dame being doubled if we outscored the Nuggets during the time he was on the court?

 

[Orion Bailey]

If Aldridge really wants to come back and be a Blazers I have no problem with him coming back.

I truly believe if we could swap aminu with lma, and we were ‘pre- nurk injury’ healthy, we would be a contender this year.