Blaz06Draft
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The Blazers added Evan Turner as the starting small forward. His excellence as a perimeter defender is important, but it is his offensive impact that will bring the most rewards to the Blazers. You might ask, how can a poor 3 point shooter have a transformational impact on an offense? The answer: his passing will create more catch and shoot opportunities for our volume shooters.
Look at these statistics:
Player/Catch and Shoot EFg%/Pull Up EFg%/Catch and Shoot Advantage/Catch and Shoot Ratio
Lillard/ 58.2%/ 45.5%/ 12.7%/ +28%
McCollom/ 63.5%/ 49.9%/ 13.6 %/ +27%
Crabbe/ 60.3%/ 42.6%/ 17.7%/ +42%
Aminu/ 54.5%/ 40.3%/ 14.2%/ +35%
Our four leading scorers shoot much better in catch and shoot situations than on pull ups: their EFg% are around 15% greater. Since EFg% can be converted to points per possession by multiplying by 2, this means that points per possession is maybe 30% greater for catch and shoots. For example, Lillard scores 1.16 PPP on catch and shoots, but only 0.91 on pull ups. Clearly, the more catch and shoots, the better. He scores 28% more points for every pull up that can be converted to a catch and shoot.
How do you do this? Get the ball out of his hands, and let someone else pass to him in a catch and shoot situation. This is were Evan Turner comes in. Last year in Boston, he had 10.4 assist points created in 28.0 minutes per game. Per minute, he was essentially equal to Draymon Green and LeBron James in creating assist points. Each of them has about 0.37-0.38 assist points created per minute, much higher than all forwards except Tyreke Evans.
For the Blazers last year, our third assist man was Mason Plumlee, at 5.5 assist points created in 25.3 minutes. This was 0.22 assist points created per minute. So Turner should help Dame, CJ, and our other shooters have more catch and shoot opportunities.
Compare our back court to the Splash Brothers, who benefit from Draymon Green playing the forward-distributor role. Steph Curry took 58% as many catch and shoot shots as pull up shots. Klay Thompson took twice as many catch and shoots as pull ups. For the Blazers, Lillard took 37% as many catch and shoots as pull ups, and McCollom took 59% as many catch and shoots as pull ups.
So the Blazers can improve their overall offensive performance by increasing the catch and shoot opportunities for Dame and CJ. When looking at the Splash Brothers, you can see that there is certainly a lot of room for a greater share of catch and shoot opportunities.
Adding an assist oriented forward to Portland's guard corps should convert pull ups into catch and shoots, which are much more productive, with around a 25% to 33% gain in shot efficiency. This is why adding Evan Turner was a brilliant move by Neil Olshey. Perhaps it is not a mere coincidence that the two teams in the finals had the two best assist oriented forwards feeding their guards with catch and shoot opportunities.
Look at these statistics:
Player/Catch and Shoot EFg%/Pull Up EFg%/Catch and Shoot Advantage/Catch and Shoot Ratio
Lillard/ 58.2%/ 45.5%/ 12.7%/ +28%
McCollom/ 63.5%/ 49.9%/ 13.6 %/ +27%
Crabbe/ 60.3%/ 42.6%/ 17.7%/ +42%
Aminu/ 54.5%/ 40.3%/ 14.2%/ +35%
Our four leading scorers shoot much better in catch and shoot situations than on pull ups: their EFg% are around 15% greater. Since EFg% can be converted to points per possession by multiplying by 2, this means that points per possession is maybe 30% greater for catch and shoots. For example, Lillard scores 1.16 PPP on catch and shoots, but only 0.91 on pull ups. Clearly, the more catch and shoots, the better. He scores 28% more points for every pull up that can be converted to a catch and shoot.
How do you do this? Get the ball out of his hands, and let someone else pass to him in a catch and shoot situation. This is were Evan Turner comes in. Last year in Boston, he had 10.4 assist points created in 28.0 minutes per game. Per minute, he was essentially equal to Draymon Green and LeBron James in creating assist points. Each of them has about 0.37-0.38 assist points created per minute, much higher than all forwards except Tyreke Evans.
For the Blazers last year, our third assist man was Mason Plumlee, at 5.5 assist points created in 25.3 minutes. This was 0.22 assist points created per minute. So Turner should help Dame, CJ, and our other shooters have more catch and shoot opportunities.
Compare our back court to the Splash Brothers, who benefit from Draymon Green playing the forward-distributor role. Steph Curry took 58% as many catch and shoot shots as pull up shots. Klay Thompson took twice as many catch and shoots as pull ups. For the Blazers, Lillard took 37% as many catch and shoots as pull ups, and McCollom took 59% as many catch and shoots as pull ups.
So the Blazers can improve their overall offensive performance by increasing the catch and shoot opportunities for Dame and CJ. When looking at the Splash Brothers, you can see that there is certainly a lot of room for a greater share of catch and shoot opportunities.
Adding an assist oriented forward to Portland's guard corps should convert pull ups into catch and shoots, which are much more productive, with around a 25% to 33% gain in shot efficiency. This is why adding Evan Turner was a brilliant move by Neil Olshey. Perhaps it is not a mere coincidence that the two teams in the finals had the two best assist oriented forwards feeding their guards with catch and shoot opportunities.
