The Case for Jake (1 Viewer)

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Still working on that 'Bowen' thing. However, Hayward in a comparison of the same last 19 games:

Hayward
76-159 = .478 from the field
19-55 = .345 from 3-pt range
11.16 PPG

Layman
97-168 = .577 from the field
27-69 = .391 from 3-pt range
15.93 PPG

That is not to compare the two at all because it's still too small of a sample size. But you have to like the direction it is trending.
 
So here is the hypothetical. If Jake continues playing like this, he's gonna get paid. Especially if he plays like this in the playoffs.

What is the maximum you would match for Jake? There are 15 teams with significant capspace this offseason and not really that many good free agents to go around.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/cap/2019/

Of the teams with significant capspace here I can see these teams have a need at SF:

Jazz
Pelicans
Magic
Suns
Pacers
Hawks
Clippers
Knicks

Some of these teams have high aspirations (max FAs), some will need to sign their own guys. But as we've all seen in the past, all it takes is one crazy team to royally fuck another. Of these teams I'd be most worried about the Jazz. They have 16 million to spend and Jingles isn't getting any younger. We've also screwed them in the past multiple times with Matthews and Millsap.

For reference I'd put Jake at around ~30th best FA according to this list but some of the guys ahead of him have player options that they will not decline:

https://hoopshype.com/2019/02/08/nba-free-agency-2019-the-top-players/

The Blazers have the 4th highest payroll, and it's gonna stay that way unless they can offload one of the three albatrosses. Sneaky move may be to move CJ for picks and young player. That would help a lot as well.

Personally, I'm really hoping Jake doesn't get an offer above 10 million. Max MLE I can see him getting, and I would be willing to match. Anything more than 12-13 gets dicey...
 
B-Roy said:
So here is the hypothetical. If Jake continues playing like this, he's gonna get paid. Especially if he plays like this in the playoffs.

What is the maximum you would match for Jake? There are 15 teams with significant capspace this offseason and not really that many good free agents to go around.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/cap/2019/

Of the teams with significant capspace here I can see these teams have a need at SF:

Jazz
Pelicans
Magic
Suns
Pacers
Hawks
Clippers
Knicks

Some of these teams have high aspirations (max FAs), some will need to sign their own guys. But as we've all seen in the past, all it takes is one crazy team to royally fuck another. Of these teams I'd be most worried about the Jazz. They have 16 million to spend and Jingles isn't getting any younger. We've also screwed them in the past multiple times with Matthews and Millsap.

For reference I'd put Jake at around ~30th best FA according to this list but some of the guys ahead of him have player options that they will not decline:

https://hoopshype.com/2019/02/08/nba-free-agency-2019-the-top-players/

The Blazers have the 4th highest payroll, and it's gonna stay that way unless they can offload one of the three albatrosses. Sneaky move may be to move CJ for picks and young player. That would help a lot as well.

Personally, I'm really hoping Jake doesn't get an offer above 10 million. Max MLE I can see him getting, and I would be willing to match. Anything more than 12-13 gets dicey...
Click to expand...


the first 'issue' is not knowing what Jody Allen and the Vulcans want. Will they agree to substantial tax next season? And the answer to that may very well depend on how Portland does in the playoffs. Another 1st round exit may get a no-tax edict delivered to Portland's front office

Portland will have 126M in guarantees for 10 players. If they use their 1st round pick to add a player, they'll be at 128M. Jake's cap-hold puts them at 130M, and that likely takes them out of the full-MLE, leaving them with the tax MLE. The cap-holds for Aminu, Hood, and Curry combine for about 23M

the 2016 spending spree will really catch up to Portland this summer. And all it would take is one team looking at Jake the way Brooklyn looked at Crabbe to monkey-wrench the entire shit-show
 
A couple PHX comps come to mind. Dan Mejerle. Shawn Marion. No idea how the stats stack up, but Layman's game reminds me of both these dudes - but with a much prettier shot than Marion!
 
blue9 said:
A couple PHX comps come to mind. Dan Mejerle. Shawn Marion. No idea how the stats stack up, but Layman's game reminds me of both these dudes - but with a much prettier shot than Marion!
Click to expand...
If you look at actual skillset, he is basically Paul George without the elite defense and less perfected ball handling skills. He can pretty much do all of the other things though.

Jake seems to be a hard worker, so he can still get better. Crazy.
 
wizenheimer said:
the first 'issue' is not knowing what Jody Allen and the Vulcans want. Will they agree to substantial tax next season? And the answer to that may very well depend on how Portland does in the playoffs. Another 1st round exit may get a no-tax edict delivered to Portland's front office

Portland will have 126M in guarantees for 10 players. If they use their 1st round pick to add a player, they'll be at 128M. Jake's cap-hold puts them at 130M, and that likely takes them out of the full-MLE, leaving them with the tax MLE. The cap-holds for Aminu, Hood, and Curry combine for about 23M

the 2016 spending spree will really catch up to Portland this summer. And all it would take is one team looking at Jake the way Brooklyn looked at Crabbe to monkey-wrench the entire shit-show
Click to expand...
Yeah, we're fucked if Jody gives a no tax demand to Olshey. We'd either have to do what Denver did last year and give a team a 2020 1st to take on Leonard/Harkless or we'd have to do something big like trade CJ for lesser salary coming back from a team with cap space.

I do believe (hope) that when they got under the tax line the previous 2 seasons at the deadline that they were doing so knowing that during the 2018-19 and 2019-20 seasons that the tax would for sure have to be paid. Getting Nurk on a decent contract made it much less than it could've been but hopefully if Jody is following Paul's wishes that she knew going in the tax was planned for.
 
theprunetang said:
If you look at actual skillset, he is basically Paul George without the elite defense and less perfected ball handling skills. He can pretty much do all of the other things though.

Jake seems to be a hard worker, so he can still get better. Crazy.
Click to expand...

I just realized that this poor version of PG I just talked about is similar to the man that Paul George took over for in Indiana: Danny Granger pre-injury.
 
yuyuza1 said:
lmao. then that's not Paul George then.
Click to expand...
Definitely. But, Jake still has room to grow on defense and dribbling and a nice work ethic. I'm guessing he never hits that lofty plateau, but there is nothing in the universe that says he CAN'T.
 
theprunetang said:
I just realized that this poor version of PG I just talked about is similar to the man that Paul George took over for in Indiana: Danny Granger pre-injury.
Click to expand...
Even Granger created a lot on the iso.

Jake's whole offensive repertoire (right now, anyway) is based on off-ball movement. I think Marion is an apt comparison. .
 
Based on his contributions over the past 15-20 games, I'd be more than happy to buy a celebratory case for Jake.
 
yuyuza1 said:
Even Granger created a lot on the iso.

Jake's whole offensive repertoire (right now, anyway) is based on off-ball movement. I think Marion is an apt comparison. .
Click to expand...
Mostly true. He has shown the ability though to create for himself after closeouts and such on the perimeter.
 
Hard to run a stat comp on a player who has only just cracked the rotation against a finished career, so I just ran their 3rd seasons against each other and this is what came out:

Screen Shot 2019-02-14 at 11.25.50 AM.png




Screen Shot 2019-02-14 at 11.28.32 AM.png
 
B-Roy said:
Personally, I'm really hoping Jake doesn't get an offer above 10 million. Max MLE I can see him getting, and I would be willing to match. Anything more than 12-13 gets dicey...
Click to expand...
I think this is the wrong approach.

With Jake, I think you be proactive with him & tell him you want him here long term. Try to get a verbal agreement before he officially hits RFA on $10M-$12M per year.

I think that would go a long ways for him.
 
tester551 said:
I think this is the wrong approach.

With Jake, I think you be proactive with him & tell him you want him here long term. Try to get a verbal agreement before he officially hits RFA on $10M-$12M per year.

I think that would go a long ways for him.
Click to expand...
So what we did with Nurk. I'm down.
 
tester551 said:
I think this is the wrong approach.

With Jake, I think you be proactive with him & tell him you want him here long term. Try to get a verbal agreement before he officially hits RFA on $10M-$12M per year.

I think that would go a long ways for him.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I don't think they're ready to tack on a guaranteed $10 on top of what we have already. Seems like a lot.
 
B-Roy said:
Yeah, I don't think they're ready to tack on a guaranteed $10 on top of what we have already. Seems like a lot.
Click to expand...
Messed around on Shamsports a bit.

If we:

- let Aminu walk,
- re-sign Jake for a 3yr, 30 mil deal,
- re-sign Rodney for tax payer MLE,
- sign our 1st round draft pick to rookie scale (#23 pick)
- sign 2 minimum players
- let Seth walk
- let Skal walk

We'd be at a tax payment of about 12 mil. It's not that bad.
 
B-Roy said:
Yeah, I don't think they're ready to tack on a guaranteed $10 on top of what we have already. Seems like a lot.
Click to expand...
Think of it as giving Aminu a $3M raise - and "Aminu" instantly becomes 2x better than he was. Money well spent, IMO.
 
yuyuza1 said:
Messed around on Shamsports a bit.

If we:

- let Aminu walk,
- re-sign Jake for a 3yr, 30 mil deal,
- re-sign Rodney for tax payer MLE,
- sign our 1st round draft pick to rookie scale (#23 pick)
- sign 2 minimum players
- let Seth walk
- let Skal walk

We'd be at a tax payment of about 12 mil. It's not that bad.
Click to expand...
Skal has a guaranteed contract next season.
 
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