The Case for Jake

[PtldPlatypus]

Messed around on Shamsports a bit.

If we:

- let Aminu walk,
- re-sign Jake for a 3yr, 30 mil deal,
- re-sign Rodney for tax payer MLE,
- sign our 1st round draft pick to rookie scale (#23 pick)
- sign 2 minimum players
- let Seth walk
- let Skal walk

We'd be at a tax payment of about 12 mil. It's not that bad.

I wonder if Neil is going to try to get Hood to stick around here without using the MLE.

If he likes it here and wants to stick around, we could theoretically give him 17.9M/4y using his non-bird exception. Or he could sign an $8.5M 1-&-1 deal, and if he opted out the summer of 2020, we could theoretically offer a 31.3M/4y deal on early bird rights 16 months from now.

Hood would have to really like the culture and his role here in order to take that gamble, but I'd hope Neil tries to make that happen.

 

[Scalma]

Messed around on Shamsports a bit.

If we:

- let Aminu walk,
- re-sign Jake for a 3yr, 30 mil deal,
- re-sign Rodney for tax payer MLE,
- sign our 1st round draft pick to rookie scale (#23 pick)
- sign 2 minimum players
- let Seth walk
- let Skal walk

We'd be at a tax payment of about 12 mil. It's not that bad.

If I had to make a conservative guess I think we’re going to package one or two expirings along with our pick for a rotational player with multiple years left.

Some possibilities

Aaron Gordon
Robert Covington
Will Barton


And some bigger, more unlikely names

Love
G. Hayward
B. Griffin

 

[PtldPlatypus]

If I had to make a conservative guess I think we’re going to package one or two expirings along with our pick for a rotational player with multiple years left.

Some possibilities

Aaron Gordon
Robert Covington
Will Barton


And some bigger, more unlikely names

Love
G. Hayward
B. Griffin

Knowing Neil's track record, is that really a conservative guess? That would be an outlandishly impressive move for him in comparison to the majority of his efforts in Portland.

 

[B-Roy]

Knowing Neil's track record, is that really a conservative guess? That would be an outlandishly impressive move for him in comparison to the majority of his efforts in Portland.

I don't think there's a team out there that would trade a quality player for our trash and a first. A bad team with cap may absorb one though....

 

[hoopsjock]

If I had to make a conservative guess I think we’re going to package one or two expirings along with our pick for a rotational player with multiple years left.

Some possibilities

Aaron Gordon
Robert Covington
Will Barton


And some bigger, more unlikely names

Love
G. Hayward
B. Griffin

If we wait until the draft we could select a player for another team and include our 2020 1st too. I'm rooting for things to end poorly for Detroit this season as I think an offer of Turner, either Leonard or Harkless, the rights to our 2019 pick, and our 2020 1st is pretty solid if they don't want to continue building around his contract.

 

[dviss1]

Guys. Exactly what can’t Jake do??

Play on the ball defense.

He gets crossed regularly.

 

[Reep]

Play on the ball defense.

He gets crossed regularly.

Do you think that is lack of experience or a physical limit? He seems quick and long enough to do better.

 

[Scalma]

I don't think there's a team out there that would trade a quality player for our trash and a first. A bad team with cap may absorb one though....

Meyers, Turner, and Moe stop becoming anchors the minute the season ends and turn into assets. The market may be flooded with expirings, but that doesn’t necessarily mean every team is willing to move them. And unlike a lot of unwanted players on expirings, they can actually contribute to a team.

For example, Denver owes Barton $40M after this season. Trading him for Meyers or Moe would save them *roughly* $20M if they keep the first they’d get from Portland, and $30M if they don’t. They can replace Barton with Malik Beasley who’s six years younger and arguably a superior player. If you’re Denver, why wouldn’t you consider that?

 

[dviss1]

Do you think that is lack of experience or a physical limit? He seems quick and long enough to do better.

Experience. Fundamentals.

He also needs to sit down in his stance better.

His hips are to high.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Experience. Fundamentals.

He also needs to sit down in his stance better.

His hips are to high.

That was my thought as well, but I don't get to watch enough games to know how legit that thought was.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

Experience. Fundamentals.

He also needs to sit down in his stance better.

His hips are to high.

eh but do they lie?
I agree I think his natural defensive stance is a little awkward, I feel like he's getting better though.

 

[B-Roy]

Meyers, Turner, and Moe stop becoming anchors the minute the season ends and turn into assets. The market may be flooded with expirings, but that doesn’t necessarily mean every team is willing to move them. And unlike a lot of unwanted players on expirings, they can actually contribute to a team.

For example, Denver owes Barton $40M after this season. Trading him for Meyers or Moe would save them *roughly* $20M if they keep the first they’d get from Portland, and $30M if they don’t. They can replace Barton with Malik Beasley who’s six years younger and arguably a superior player. If you’re Denver, why wouldn’t you consider that?

Because even if everything you said is true it's much less risky to wait until the trade deadline to do something like that.

 

[Scalma]

Because even if everything you said is true it's much less risky to wait until the trade deadline to do something like that.

How so? What if Barton gets injured?

 

[dviss1]

eh but do they lie?
I agree I think his natural defensive stance is a little awkward, I feel like he's getting better though.

Turner's is even more horrible with how he bends over so there's hope for Jake.

 

[TBpup]

He's jumping at pump fakes a little lest and when a shot does go up, he has the length to really contest. Not a lot of shots that he is flying at going in lately.

 

[rotary111]

He reacts so quickly once his man has beaten him. Each time he gets beat I am surprised at how fast he is able to recover and try to make a good defensive move. I really think he will improve his D significantly with experience.

This kid could be a stat stuffer with his skill set.

 

[Scalma]

I wonder if Neil is going to try to get Hood to stick around here without using the MLE.

If he likes it here and wants to stick around, we could theoretically give him 17.9M/4y using his non-bird exception. Or he could sign an $8.5M 1-&-1 deal, and if he opted out the summer of 2020, we could theoretically offer a 31.3M/4y deal on early bird rights 16 months from now.

Hood would have to really like the culture and his role here in order to take that gamble, but I'd hope Neil tries to make that happen.

What happens to the MLE if we use the non bird exception?

 

[PtldPlatypus]

What happens to the MLE if we use the non bird exception?

They're unrelated. If we were able to re-sign Hood with the non-bird exception, we would still have the full (taxpayer) MLE available for another free agent.

 

[Scalma]

They're unrelated. If we were able to re-sign Hood with the non-bird exception, we would still have the full (taxpayer) MLE available for another free agent.

Hmm, I wonder how much Kanter is going to get, considering the center market.

 

[illmatic99]

Think I found the perfect comparison.

 

[BonesJones]

They're unrelated. If we were able to re-sign Hood with the non-bird exception, we would still have the full (taxpayer) MLE available for another free agent.

I'd imagine we'd trade Meyers and maybe Moe to open up the Full MLE for Kanter.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I'd imagine we'd trade Meyers and maybe Moe to open up the Full MLE for Kanter.

If Layman gets 8 figures this summer, full MLE might not be an option.

 

[BonesJones]

If Layman gets 8 figures this summer, full MLE might not be an option.

Even if he makes $12M all wed have to do is trade one of Meyers/Moe and let Aminu walk.

 

[twobullz]

Even if he makes $12M all wed have to do is trade one of Meyers/Moe and let Aminu walk.

So still willing to let Aminu walk so you can Pay Jake $12M?

 

[Orion Bailey]

Question.

Does anyone think there is a chance that NO actually has a really good relationship with the guys he drafted/tried to sign, then brought in to us? AMinu? Kanter?
He took Moe from being a castaway into a starter. (Not him specifically). Combine that with how open everyone is about how great it is here, I seriously think NO might be able to get these guys to sign for less to stay.
I actually think NO might be able to maneuver and tweak things, so that he finds the funds enough to keep these guys and they will help by signing for less to bring back a contender next year with a healthy Nurk.

 

[wizenheimer]

Question.

Does anyone think there is a chance that NO actually has a really good relationship with the guys he drafted/tried to sign, then brought in to us? AMinu? Kanter?
He took Moe from being a castaway into a starter. (Not him specifically). Combine that with how open everyone is about how great it is here, I seriously think NO might be able to get these guys to sign for less to stay.
I actually think NO might be able to maneuver and tweak things, so that he finds the funds enough to keep these guys and they will help by signing for less to bring back a contender next year with a healthy Nurk.

we're all guessing from the blind because we really don't know now much luxury tax JA is willing to pay. We do know that even PA was concerned enough that Noah Vonleh and Ed Davis are on other teams, and either or both of those guys would be better in backup roles than what Portland has had so far in these playoffs, IMO

the first question will be Aminu. Say he's re-signed for 8M...Blazers will already be over the tax line.

Those 8 figure estimates for Layman are likely out the window; a player who ends the season & playoffs with a bunch DNP-CD's isn't going to be getting 10M a year offers and if he did, it would be loopy to match (hello Allen Crabbe). Say 4M...Blazers are now 6-8M over the tax line

Hood? don't forget that Olshey paid 2 second round picks for Hood. That's a rather significant price to pay for a 30 game rental. Would he re-sign for his 4.1M non-Bird? Maybe, especially considering how poorly he has played in the playoffs, and if so, Blazers are now 10-12M over the tax line

that leaves their tax-MLE and the decision between Curry & Kanter. Backup SG or backup C? At SG, Portland would have CJ, Hood, Simons, & Trent. At C, Portland would have Meyers, Zach, & Skal with no certainty on Nurkic. To me, that's an easy call since I think the inconsistency and situational issues at C are a bigger problem. But would Kanter re-sign for 5.5M? Say he does (or it's Curry if that's who you want), Portland is now 15-18M over the tax line and facing a luxury tax in the 29-35M range. That's pretty steep.

 

[Orion Bailey]

we're all guessing from the blind because we really don't know now much luxury tax JA is willing to pay. We do know that even PA was concerned enough that Noah Vonleh and Ed Davis are on other teams, and either or both of those guys would be better in backup roles than what Portland has had so far in these playoffs, IMO

the first question will be Aminu. Say he's re-signed for 8M...Blazers will already be over the tax line.

Those 8 figure estimates for Layman are likely out the window; a player who ends the season & playoffs with a bunch DNP-CD's isn't going to be getting 10M a year offers and if he did, it would be loopy to match (hello Allen Crabbe). Say 4M...Blazers are now 6-8M over the tax line

Hood? don't forget that Olshey paid 2 second round picks for Hood. That's a rather significant price to pay for a 30 game rental. Would he re-sign for his 4.1M non-Bird? Maybe, especially considering how poorly he has played in the playoffs, and if so, Blazers are now 10-12M over the tax line

that leaves their tax-MLE and the decision between Curry & Kanter. Backup SG or backup C? At SG, Portland would have CJ, Hood, Simons, & Trent. At C, Portland would have Meyers, Zach, & Skal with no certainty on Nurkic. To me, that's an easy call since I think the inconsistency and situational issues at C are a bigger problem. But would Kanter re-sign for 5.5M? Say he does (or it's Curry if that's who you want), Portland is now 15-18M over the tax line and facing a luxury tax in the 29-35M range. That's pretty steep.

That could be cut in half by just shipping Turner out with a pick to a team with space though correct? (might have to be two picks now with his playoff performances).

If thats what it takes, im game.

 

[wizenheimer]

That could be cut in half by just shipping Turner out with a pick to a team with space though correct? (might have to be two picks now with his playoff performances).

If thats what it takes, im game.

sure...Blazers can do what they've refused to do before and that's use a 1st to unload some salary. I think Turner is too shitty a contract to send him away without getting substantial salary back. Meyers, maybe, probably, but without Nurkic for who knows how long next season, that would leave the C-PF rotation as Zack & Skal....yikes!! Even adding Aminu to that doesn't make it comforting. The 2016 chickens are coming home to roost this summer

 

[hoopsjock]

sure...Blazers can do what they've refused to do before and that's use a 1st to unload some salary. I think Turner is too shitty a contract to send him away without getting substantial salary back. Meyers, maybe, probably, but without Nurkic for who knows how long next season, that would leave the C-PF rotation as Zack & Skal....yikes!! Even adding Aminu to that doesn't make it comforting. The 2016 chickens are coming home to roost this summer

The Nuggets traded over $21 million in salary to the Nets last summer for a lottery protected 1st and a future 2nd. The Nets ended up waiving both eventually. I don't think it matters what the skill level of the player being traded is in these type of situations. The timing of it would have to be a 2020 1st though, not this year's pick so you're right that it will come down to whether or not the Blazers do something they haven't been willing to do and another team willing to use cap space.

 

[wizenheimer]

The Nuggets traded over $21 million in salary to the Nets last summer for a lottery protected 1st and a future 2nd. The Nets ended up waiving both eventually. I don't think it matters what the skill level of the player being traded is in these type of situations. The timing of it would have to be a 2020 1st though, not this year's pick so you're right that it will come down to whether or not the Blazers do something they haven't been willing to do and another team willing to use cap space.

that's not entirely accurate. Nets didn't waive Darrell Arthur; they traded him for Jared Dudley and a 2nd round pick from the Suns

meaning their 'haul' for taking on those contracts was Jared Dudley, a first round pick, and 2 second round picks. Nothing too substantial but certainly an indication that the Blazers would have to give up considerably more that just a 1st to dump Turner. It's also the case that the trade happened more than a week into the off-season, an off-season when there wasn't much in the way of either cap-space or free agents....

http://www.prosportstransactions.co...ndDate=&PlayerMovementChkBx=yes&Submit=Search

...meaning that in this coming off-season, arranging a salary dump trade might take significant time in which teams determine whether or not their cap-space could fetch more than just an unattractive pick package for taking on bad salary. I'm not sure that delay on top of uncertainty will work in Portland's favor this summer.

I'd also wonder, looking at what Portland "needs" to accomplish, if the full-MLE is that much better than the tax-MLE (5.5M vs 9M) that the Blazers need to mortgage even more future picks to gain that extra 3.5M. Sure, if JA insists on minimal tax that might have an impact. I'd also wonder if paying 8-9M a year for either Curry or Kanter is wise. I wouldn't pay it for Curry and maybe not for Kanter.

still seems to me like the best option might be offering Meyers and the 25th pick to Atlanta before or during the draft. It would give the Blazers the breathing room for a full-MLE, but sure leave Portland crazy thin at C and PF