The Case for Standing Pat

[Scalma]

Here’s the thing you stupid idiots, if Olshey is actually following the Spurs model, we should prepare ourselves for this exact scenario. He will take someone at 25 and keep him. He will replace Curry with Simons. He will replace Kanter with Collins. He will replace Collins on the second unit with Skal. He will replace Skal with a vet on a minimum contract cough KOQ cough. And finally, for the BIG SPLASH, he will replace Hood with a veteran that will take part, or all of the tax MLE. Someone like Garrett Temple, Hezonja, etc.

If we prepare ourselves for this now, we may find a way to accept it then.

 

[glazeduck]

I go back to my original point. Losing 3 key rotation players is NOT standing pat.

I tend to agree, but also think it's a bit of semantics and relativity... "Standing pat" suggests some sort of influential action on behalf of the Blazers, when in reality, they have absolutely zero control over losing Curry, Kanter, and Hood and will be really against it with Aminu and possibly Layman.

As much as anything else, this could just be that the term "standing pat" sounds better than "shit out of luck" or "completely fucked" or "absolutely powerless to change..."

Important to remember too that these articles aren't being written for the super fans on message boards, but for the less-in-the-know masses, so you could argue that dissecting the semantics of "standing pat" is also somewhat unfair to Tokito...

 

[Pinwheel1]

I go back to my original point. Losing 3 key rotation players is NOT standing pat.

Its not that his point is good for the Blazers, it is "good" in the fact that it may be true/inevitable that we lose all three. I would focus on keeping Hood if possible and start hm at SF along with Collins at PF. If we can use our expiring contracts now to improve the PF spot we need to do it. But that is a big IF.
Worse case scenario is we have to wait until the deadline and pray we get lucky.

 

[hoopsjock]

I tend to agree, but also think it's a bit of semantics and relativity... "Standing pat" suggests some sort of influential action on behalf of the Blazers, when in reality, they have absolutely zero control over losing Curry, Kanter, and Hood and will be really against it with Aminu and possibly Layman.

As much as anything else, this could just be that the term "standing pat" sounds better than "shit out of luck" or "completely fucked" or "absolutely powerless to change..."

Important to remember too that these articles aren't being written for the super fans on message boards, but for the less-in-the-know masses, so you could argue that dissecting the semantics of "standing pat" is also somewhat unfair to Tokito...

Nah, I don't agree with that. If you're arguing that this team made it to the WCF and just needs to have better health and should stand pat that doesn't account for the loss of 3 rotation players. It's not semantics. Standing pat would be retaining at least 2 of the 3 between Curry, Hood, and Kanter and running back the same team with hopes that young players step up and injuries are less impactful.

 

[BrianFromWA]

View attachment 26552

Fuck that

I was expecting this to be a picture of a warm apple pie...missed opportunity, imo.

 

[e_blazer]

Nah, I don't agree with that. If you're arguing that this team made it to the WCF and just needs to have better health and should stand pat that doesn't account for the loss of 3 rotation players. It's not semantics. Standing pat would be retaining at least 2 of the 3 between Curry, Hood, and Kanter and running back the same team with hopes that young players step up and injuries are less impactful.

I think Pinwheel’s take is most on point. Losing three rotation players would hurt, but the Blazers may be able to patch things together until a trade can be made at the deadline using one or more of the expiring contracts. I hope it doesn’t come to that, but I think it’s the fallback plan. Olshey doesn’t have much money to work with.

 

[Ripcity4life77]

The only reason to stand pat is to clear cap space for next summer and hope Dame and CJ can lure a top of the line FA to Portland since i believe they will have some money to burn after the bad contracts come off the books this is the ONLY reason to do this and maybe to get a lotto pick to use for a trade next summer. Any other reason like let's just let this team meld together and get better naturally is a complete crap answer since Dame and CJ are in a win SOON mode so waiting for next summer might be an ok play that is a gamble but at this point it might be the best play unless a sweet heart of a deal falls into NeO's lap this summer.

 

[hoopsjock]

I think Pinwheel’s take is most on point. Losing three rotation players would hurt, but the Blazers may be able to patch things together until a trade can be made at the deadline using one or more of the expiring contracts. I hope it doesn’t come to that, but I think it’s the fallback plan. Olshey doesn’t have much money to work with.

I'm not arguing the strategy. I'm saying using "patches" is not the same as standing pat and running the same team back next year.

 

[ripcity67]

Jazz did not stand pat

 

[e_blazer]

I'm not arguing the strategy. I'm saying using "patches" is not the same as standing pat and running the same team back next year.

I probably should have used a different title for the thread, but does any NBA team ever “stand pat” in the sense you’re using it? Even the Warriors added Boogie last year. Everyone wants to get better or drastically worse for a rebuild.

 

[Scalma]

Nah, I don't agree with that. If you're arguing that this team made it to the WCF and just needs to have better health and should stand pat that doesn't account for the loss of 3 rotation players. It's not semantics. Standing pat would be retaining at least 2 of the 3 between Curry, Hood, and Kanter and running back the same team with hopes that young players step up and injuries are less impactful.

By definition standing pat could be defined as being “stubbornly conservative.” Staying internal to replace pending free agents would fit that definition imo.

 

[glazeduck]

Nah, I don't agree with that. If you're arguing that this team made it to the WCF and just needs to have better health and should stand pat that doesn't account for the loss of 3 rotation players. It's not semantics. Standing pat would be retaining at least 2 of the 3 between Curry, Hood, and Kanter and running back the same team with hopes that young players step up and injuries are less impactful.

That's not at all what I'm arguing.

I'm saying that they have very little, if any say in the matter of whether or not they CAN retain those guys. I agree that standing pat would mean keeping them -- it would mean having the ability to choose to keep the same roster as last year.

I'm also saying that we're picking apart Tokito's use of the phrase "standing pat" when what he really means is "helpless to control the roster this offseason and as a result will ultimately do very little".

 

[Scalma]

That's not at all what I'm arguing.

I'm saying that they have very little, if any say in the matter of whether or not they CAN retain those guys. I agree that standing pat would mean keeping them -- it would mean having the ability to choose to keep the same roster as last year.

I'm also saying that we're picking apart Tokito's use of the phrase "standing pat" when what he really means is "helpless to control the roster this offseason and as a result will ultimately do very little".

And that’s a realistic take imo. Hood settling for the tax mid level seems like a fantasy (for blazers fans) Kanter is more likely just because of the market for centers, but that’s unlikely as well. Curry probably wants a bigger role and I can’t see Olshey giving him the MLE when he has Simons anyway.

Our expiring contracts have value, but they’d probably have even more value around the deadline, so I wouldn’t be surprised at all if we held onto those guys until then.

So short of a trade, the tools with which Olshey has to upgrade the roster becomes very limited. I’m preparing myself to hear a lot about internal development again this offseason. Anything else would be a pleasant surprise, but I’m not setting myself up for disappointment again.

 

[glazeduck]

And that’s a realistic take imo. Hood settling for the tax mid level seems like a fantasy (for blazers fans) Kanter is more likely just because of the market for centers, but that’s unlikely as well. Curry probably wants a bigger role and I can’t see Olshey giving him the MLE when he has Simons anyway.

Our expiring contracts have value, but they’d probably have even more value around the deadline, so I wouldn’t be surprised at all if we held onto those guys until then.

So short of a trade, the tools with which Olshey has to upgrade the roster becomes very limited. I’m preparing myself to hear a lot about internal development again this offseason. Anything else would be a pleasant surprise, but I’m not setting myself up for disappointment again.

Agreed. I think our best hopes for not standing pat are either:

1. 1-year "prove-it" deals (ala Seth last year)
2. Olshey finding another under/off the radar value
3. Guys whose market collapse due to big money above them...

Unmentioned in this thread is the ability for the front office to continue their development as well... Whether he'd ever admit it or not, Olshey, it would appear, learned a great deal after signing ET, Moe, Meyers and AC to those ridiculous contracts and subsequently signed Nurk to arguably one of the best deals in the entire league. Hopefully he truly has learned to let the market come to him, instead of the opposite... His talent clearly lies in finding undervalued commodities, so it's not inconceivable that what we all perceive to be minor pieces brought in, could possibly have greater potential than we give them credit for... Somewhat grasping at straws here, but again -- I see this as basically the best we can hope for.

 

[THE HCP]

Look at the way he's guarded. Steph didn't do shit against that same type of defense. People need to open their eyes.

That was just that dudes opinion.

 

[Labinot41]

Guys there is so much money for the Players in free agency, Scalma is right, only in our wildest dreams Hood accept the tax mle, i expect Hood. Players like barnes or horford rejected big money for more big money. Kanter and Seth are gone, we dont have the money to pay these guys, and in reality, this is not a Western Conference team after they leave. We can only hope Simons becomes like a 6th man of the year candidate and we get some cheap quality player for the tax mle. Maybe guys like Temple or whoever. And nurkic is likely out for a long part of the season. The only thing we can do is hope that we do fine till the All Star break and by the time Nurk comes back and our expiring contracts become assets at the trade Deadline

 

[THE HCP]

blaming injuries is part of it but a shitty excuse imho. losers always can blame injuries or refs or the weather or...
portland was not good enough. period.

I disagree sir. I laugh when people blame the refs, but injuries are the one real excuse you are allowed to use in my book. It changes everything. For the good or bad it does. I don’t think we beat the Clips a few years ago had CP3 and Griffin don’t go down and who knows what happens if OKC had anything near a healthy PG13 this spring.

 

[Hoopguru]

I disagree sir. I laugh when people blame the refs, but injuries are the one real excuse you are allowed to use in my book. It changes everything. For the good or bad it does. I don’t think we beat the Clips a few years ago had CP3 and Griffin don’t go down and who knows what happens if OKC had anything near a healthy PG13 this spring.

agree, injuries change everything in playoffs. No way Toronto beats GS if they have Durant & Thompson.
Us not having Nurk & a healthy Kanter effected our play and potential.
If Tom Brady doesnt suit up for the super bowl, Rams win!

 

[Mediocre Man]

Injuries can be blamed, for sure. However, even with Nurk and Kanter I don't think we get by GS

 

[Hoopguru]

Injuries can be blamed, for sure. However, even with Nurk and Kanter I don't think we get by GS

If they have Durant , probably not...

 

[THE HCP]

Injuries can be blamed, for sure. However, even with Nurk and Kanter I don't think we get by GS

I agree with you in this one unfortunately.

 

[Scalma]

agree, injuries change everything in playoffs. No way Toronto beats GS if they have Durant & Thompson.
Us not having Nurk & a healthy Kanter effected pour play and potential.
If Tom Brady doesnt suit up for the super bowl, Rams win!

Injuries are even more magnified in basketball because there are only five guys on the court. You lose one and it has a domino effect. It’s almost like having five quarterbacks. You just can’t lose them.

 

[Reep]

Injuries can be blamed, for sure. However, even with Nurk and Kanter I don't think we get by GS

Not without huge jumps from Nurk and Collins, and CJ improving on the defensive end. I Collins could earn the starting spot by defending as he does without fouling out, and was more aggressive on his threes, and Nurk could do what he was doing with the possible improvement on % from 12-18 feet, then I could see us being a difficult matchup. Without Nurk for most of next season, I guess I'm really thinking of the season after this next one. That is a lot of "if"s.

 

[Cugel]

Of course injuries matter, but is a team that makes the finals ever 100% healthy? I don't know but I would imagine somebody on the Raptors was not 100%. Somebody is always banged up to some extent and there is nothing you can do about it except have depth and coaching adaptation to counter the injury.