The map is shrinking.

[maxiep]

This news is huge in terms of the campaign and where they'll spend their money: http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/10/17/four_states.html

 

[SlyPokerDog]

I blame Global Laming.

 

[barfo]

Too bad CO, NC, VA, and FL still isn't enough for Romney to win. Otherwise this news would actually matter.

barfo

 

[Denny Crane]

Too bad CO, NC, VA, and FL still isn't enough for Romney to win. Otherwise this news would actually matter.

barfo

Those 4 states would put Romney at 257.

Ohio would put him over the top at 275. Romney may also end up winning New Hampshire.

Oddly, you posted Suffolk University did something somehow wrong by announcing they weren't going to poll in NC, VA, and FLA anymore (looks like they were right).

 

[julius]

Those 4 states would put Romney at 257.

Ohio would put him over the top at 275. Romney may also end up winning New Hampshire.

Oddly, you posted Suffolk University did something somehow wrong by announcing they weren't going to poll in NC, VA, and FLA anymore (looks like they were right).

and if monkeys flew out of my butt, I'd be in a lot of pain.

 

[Denny Crane]

And...

 

[Denny Crane]

and if monkeys flew out of my butt, I'd be in a lot of pain.

Romney's ahead in those four states.

Obama's up 2.2 in Ohio. He was up 5.5 two weeks ago.

 

[barfo]

Romney's ahead in those four states.

Obama's up 2.2 in Ohio. He was up 5.5 two weeks ago.

Heh. Only another 20 days or so until we hear how the voting machines in Ohio were rigged, etc etc. Giant Liberal Conspiracy, LLC strikes again!

barfo

 

[barfo]

Oddly, you posted Suffolk University did something somehow wrong by announcing they weren't going to poll in NC, VA, and FLA anymore (looks like they were right).

Oh? You know the election results, do you? Do tell.

barfo

 

[Denny Crane]

Oh? You know the election results, do you? Do tell.

barfo

Obama will win California, do you agree?

 

[barfo]

Obama will win California, do you agree?

RCP average CA: Obama +17
RCP average VA: Obama +0.8

Kind of a fundamental difference between calling CA for Obama and calling VA for Romney at this point.

barfo

 

[Denny Crane]

RCP average CA: Obama +17
RCP average VA: Obama +0.8

Kind of a fundamental difference between calling CA for Obama and calling VA for Romney at this point.

barfo

And what's the trend in VA?

 

[MARIS61]

Trends don't matter.

 

[barfo]

And what's the trend in VA?

What was the trend 2 weeks ago? How many weeks away is the election?

barfo

 

[MARIS61]

Trends don't matter.

Facts matter.

 

[barfo]

Trends in polls only matter when they are going your way. Otherwise, they are "skewed".

barfo

 

[Denny Crane]

Trends in polls only matter when they are going your way. Otherwise, they are "skewed".

barfo

They are skewed, and they're still for Romney.

http://www.sacbee.com/2012/10/16/4916387/new-mirror-image-gallup-poll-shows.html

A new poll (using Gallups' party affiliation in Virginia) reveals that Romney now holds a commanding 11 point advantage over President Obama (54% to 43%) according to Kimball Political Consulting. The earlier Gallup poll revealed that Virginia's demographics are 35% Republican, 34% Democrat and 30% Independent.



As for trends:

Polls moved (for Romney) +1 in rasmussen (10/4 and 10/11)
+3 NBC/WSJ/Marist
+3 ARG
(that's recent poll vs. last poll by the same pollster)

 

[Denny Crane]

Trends don't matter.

Facts matter.

Let me know when you discover a fact.

 

[Denny Crane]

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Govern...y-7?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

According to a McLaughlin & Associates poll that had an R+.02 sample, Romney leads Obama in Virginia 51%-44%.

Among independents, Romney beats Obama by 11 points, 50%-39%.

If these numbers hold for Romney, Romney could be free to expand the electoral map and more aggressively make plays for states like Michigan and Pennsylvania that were considered "reaches" just two weeks ago.

(My note: seems Obama campaign is defending the map as if Romney is indeed free to expand the electoral map and make plays for states considered reaches)

 

[Denny Crane]

According to HuffPost's pollster.com, Virginia has gone from Obama +8.6 (on March 1) to Obama +3.9 (Sept. 21) to Romney +.1 and it's been that way since Oct. 8

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-virginia-president-romney-vs-obama

 

[MARIS61]

President Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney by 3 in Ohio in a poll from SurveyUSA.
The automated poll, conducted Oct. 12-15 on behalf of Columbus-based NBC affilaite WCMH-TV, shows Obama leading Romney among likely Buckeye State voters, 45 percent to 42 percent. Nine percent said they remain undecided. Obama's lead over Romney swells among Ohio voters who have already cast their ballots, 57 percent to 38 percent.

Obama led by only a point in SurveyUSA's previous poll of Ohio, conducted the first weekend of October. The PollTracker Average shows the president with a tiny lead there.

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

Let me know when you discover a fact.

That isn't made up.

 

[Denny Crane]

Nate Silver is the gospel.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...r-debate-strong-swing-state-polls-for-romney/

The FiveThirtyEight forecast did show a clear shift toward Mr. Romney on Friday, giving him a 15.1 percent chance of winning the Electoral College — up from 12.9 percent on Thursday.

(That was Oct 5, today it's 35.2% chance, you figure it out)

 

[Denny Crane]

And here's a terrific analysis of the possible electoral college outcomes. It seems Obama has to win Ohio, period, to get to 270.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/what-s-next-in-the-obama-romney-duel-20121017

According to RealClearPolitics, Obama currently has 201 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win. But that doesn't give Obama electoral votes from Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), or Wisconsin (10). Of these three, Romney advisers believe that only one, Wisconsin, is even theoretically winnable. Obama advisers believe they will win all three. That would put Obama at 247 electoral votes. If Obama wins Ohio (18), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), and New Hampshire (4) he would claim 281 electoral votes. That means he could afford to lose New Hampshire and Nevada and still eke out a razor-thin victory of 271 electoral votes.

Romney, according to RCP, has 191 electoral votes. If you add Florida (29), North Carolina (15), and Virginia (13), that brings his total to 248 electoral votes. Add Colorado (9) --which neither campaign is prepared to claim or concede--and Romney's total rises to 257 electoral votes. If Romney wins Ohio (18) in addition to these states, he would have 275 electoral votes. If Romney loses Ohio, he would need to win Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire to reach 273 electoral votes. There is a scenario where Romney could lose Ohio and New Hampshire but win Iowa and Nevada and one electoral vote from the 2nd Congressional District in Maine (the state allocates electoral votes by district vote) and capture the bare minimum of 270 electoral votes.

"I really don't see a path for Romney without Ohio," Plouffe said. "And we feel very good about where we are in Ohio with voter contacts, messaging, and early voting. Our early voting is ahead of where we were in 2008."

"God bless them in the Obama campaign," said RNC Communications Director Sean Spicer. "We are gaining in Ohio, and they can say all they want about early vote. We are way, way ahead in early voting in Ohio compared to 2008, and what matters are residual voters after the early vote. We believe we will have enough to win."

---

http://blogs.ajc.com/kyle-wingfield/2012/10/17/is-the-election-coming-down-to-four-states/

Ohio on its own could swing the election to Romney, but not to Obama, who would also need to win Iowa or Nevada. At the same time, this scenario means Romney doesn’t have to win Ohio — but Obama does; he can’t get to 270 with his current leaning/likely/solid states plus Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire.

 

[MARIS61]

Nate Silver is the gospel.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...r-debate-strong-swing-state-polls-for-romney/

The FiveThirtyEight forecast did show a clear shift toward Mr. Romney on Friday, giving him a 15.1 percent chance of winning the Electoral College — up from 12.9 percent on Thursday.

(That was Oct 5, today it's 35.2% chance, you figure it out)

Since Nate Silver is a psephologist, does he have to register as a dangerous sex offender?

 

[Denny Crane]

Nate Silver is a cheerleader for the Democratic Party candidates. I follow him on twitter and read his stuff daily (at least). He may well end up being very wrong.

 

[Denny Crane]

Anyhow, it really boils down to ~20 days left in the campaign, how many $$$ each campaign has left, and that both would ideally spend all they have on trying to win Ohio. Obama really should contest Colorado, in case he does lose Ohio.

I think there's a chance Romney wins Nevada. Iowa is going to be tough for him to win - MUCH tougher than Ohio would be.

 

[Further]

In a few days we will see if this debate moved the polls at all. My guess is there will not be any big movement, but just a point or two could have big consequences.

 

[mook]

I think polls will move quite a bit. My informal poll of "women I know" tells me they weren't that impressed with Romney's response to a number of women's issues. The "binder full of women" answer seems pretty tone deaf on several levels when you actually ask women what they thought of it. It made it seem like Romney was saying, "We'll grow jobs so much even a woman could get hired," as well as the idea that "Yeah, I know it sucks hiring women, but if you make a lot of exceptions for their needs to cook and clean and raise kids and stuff, they'll be ok. But that's what you get with hiring women." As though a lot of men don't also have to deal with those same issues.

Obama also hammered home birth control and Planned Parenthood, and Romney had no effective response. My wife remembers going to a Planned Parenthood center and being told she was pregnant with our first son. It's not something she takes lightly.

Romney, and I suspect most of the people who want to see Obama lose on this board, think that social issues don't matter and it's just about the economy. The majority of voters are women, and they care about birth control, abortion, sexism, and Planned Parenthood too.

But maybe the women I know are different from the women you know. I encourage you to ask the women around you what they thought of the debate and report back.

 

[barfo]

Nate Silver is a cheerleader for the Democratic Party candidates. I follow him on twitter and read his stuff daily (at least). He may well end up being very wrong.

Denny Crane is a cheerleader for the Republican Party candidates. I follow him on S2 and read his stuff daily (at least). He may well end up being very wrong.

barfo