The Narrative that Trent is a Good Defender is False

[Minstrel]

I kind of see Will Barton in Trent. Not that they're clones of each other, but going by Barton when he was young, both seemed like they had potential as microwave scorers (rather than first option types) and the potential for defense that wasn't yet realized. Since going to Denver, Barton has been considered a solid defender and he's been a useful scorer for them. That's kind of what I think Trent can be.

 

[handiman]

Maybe people are confusing intensity and effort with results.

Crabbe 2.0

 

[wizenheimer]

Crabbe 2.0

that may be a good comp because for a while there, Crabbe sure did get a lot of undeserved credit for being a good defender.

and before Crabbe, and Trent, another wing who got way overrated as a defender was Martell Webster

 

[Hoopguru]

I remember that, but what I recall was that people seemed to be reacting on a curve; one based upon what they were used to seeing on defense from Portland guards. Trent looked engaged and he was intense and working hard. He'd have a decent defensive game and that was noticed. Much less noticed were the lapses he had on defense in other games

in other words, the defensive standards for a Portland guard over the previous 5 seasons had been set by Dame, CJ, Crabbe, Connaughton, Stauskas...bad defenders like that. Napier and Curry were a little better but their size limited their defensive versatility. The taller Trent coming along after 5 years of those other Blazer guards looked a lot better than he really was. When the gauge was what Blazer fans were used to, yeah, he looked good. But when the gauge is the rest of the NBA, he appears to be average, at best, and even that requires some homer imagination

I remember that, but what I recall was that people seemed to be reacting on a curve; one based upon what they were used to seeing on defense from Portland guards. Trent looked engaged and he was intense and working hard. He'd have a decent defensive game and that was noticed. Much less noticed were the lapses he had on defense in other games

in other words, the defensive standards for a Portland guard over the previous 5 seasons had been set by Dame, CJ, Crabbe, Connaughton, Stauskas...bad defenders like that. Napier and Curry were a little better but their size limited their defensive versatility. The taller Trent coming along after 5 years of those other Blazer guards looked a lot better than he really was. When the gauge was what Blazer fans were used to, yeah, he looked good. But when the gauge is the rest of the NBA, he appears to be average, at best, and even that requires some homer imagination

He's got a ways to go but he's one guard on the team that guards muti positions. Yeah, his 5 steals and two blocks against the Grizz in the bubble got everyones hype up.

 

[Pinwheel1]

I don't think Trent is a good defender. He's not as bad as his numbers tend to indicate either, but he's certainly got an undeserved reputation as a good defender. Maybe people are confusing intensity and effort with results.

So essentially what you are saying is those who suggested starting Trent over CJ based on his defense was not the brightest idea.

 

[Hoopguru]

Klay Thompson has been a touchstone of controversy in NBA defensive statistics, due to his strong defensive reputation in the eyes of many in and around the league despite uninspiring steal rates. The majority of defensive metrics, including Individual Defensive Rating and Defensive BPM, portray Thompson as a subpar defender. ESPN’s version of Real Plus/Minus estimates that Thompson cost his team 1.82 points per 100 possessions last season. Historically, the same model has rated him at +0.13 points in 2018, -0.45 points in 2017, -0.61 points in 2016, -0.72 points in 2015, and -0.17 points in 2014.

Chris Victorio | Special to S.F. Examiner
The Matchup-Based Defense model also does not identify Klay as a player who forces a lot of turnovers – 22 of the 25 high-load shooting guards forced more turnoers per 100 possessions than Klay’s 1.91. His Shooting Defense, on the other hand, was elite. Last season, Klay Thompson saved the Warriors 11.7 points per 100 possessions by forcing misses – the third highest mark among high-load shooting guards.

While models that rely on box score defensive statistics (steal, blocks, fouls, rebounds) report that Thompson’s data is unremarkable, Matchup-Based Defense inspects the performance of the players he guards. When we follow this methodology, we find a substantial and recognizable impact caused by Klay’s defense that comports with his film but does not appear in other defensive metrics. In fact, if you sort the table above by total Points Saved, you will find that Klay Thompson saved more points over the course of the season than any other shooting guard last year.

 

[Natebishop3]

What I have noticed over the years is that there are people who have a good reputation as a defender and there are people who have a bad reputation.

The people who have a good reputation get away with a TON of fouls because the refs think of them as good defenders. Chris Paul is a perfect example of this. So is Pat Bev. They foul the shit out of Dame every time he has the ball and none of it gets called. They slap and body and they're able to get away with it because they have a good reputation.

Rookies get shitted on by the refs. It's funny because I thought Wenyen did a good job defending Davis last year in the playoffs, but the refs called literally any contact. How the hell are you supposed to defend if you can't have any contact at all? It's impossible.

 

[wizenheimer]

So essentially what you are saying is those who suggested starting Trent over CJ based on his defense was not the brightest idea.

I didn't notice too many people saying that, but I might not have paid enough attention

I did notice some people saying Portland could trade CJ and allow Trent to step into the starting role. IIRC, some were comparing it to the Monta Ellis/Klay situation in Golden State. I thought that comparison was way premature. I think CJ should be traded but that's because of the awkward Dame/CJ fit, not because of Trent

 

[Natebishop3]

I didn't notice too many people saying that, but I might not have paid enough attention

I did notice some people saying Portland could trade CJ and allow Trent to step into the starting role. IIRC, some were comparing it to the Monta Ellis/Klay situation in Golden State. I thought that comparison was way premature. I think CJ should be traded but that's because of the awkward Dame/CJ fit, not because of Trent

I think we can trade CJ because Trent/Simons/Hood can fill in well enough that we could use CJ to acquire a similar talent at a much more needed position, like power forward.

I think Trent has shown that he could get us 16-20 ppg a night on decent three point shooting, and he's a decent enough defender that it's an upgrade over CJ in that category. If we were able to get someone like Ben Simmons and if RoCo could actually start hitting shots, we could roll out a starting unit of

Dame
Trent
RoCo
Simmons
Nurk (when he comes back)

And then use Simmons as the backup point guard.

 

[wizenheimer]

I think we can trade CJ because Trent/Simons/Hood can fill in well enough that we could use CJ to acquire a similar talent at a much more needed position, like power forward.

I think Trent has shown that he could get us 16-20 ppg a night on decent three point shooting, and he's a decent enough defender that it's an upgrade over CJ in that category. If we were able to get someone like Ben Simmons and if RoCo could actually start hitting shots, we could roll out a starting unit of

Dame
Trent
RoCo
Simmons
Nurk (when he comes back)

And then use Simmons as the backup point guard.

well sure, if Portland could get Simmons for CJ and spare change they'd be insane to turn that down. And of course, Olshey would refuse for just about certain

but yeah, Simmons at PF could mesh really well with Dame. But I'm not sure about RoCo as the SF. Blazers would need spacing with Simmons on the floor and RoCo has never been a good enough shooter from three to force defenses to cover his shooting threat. I think Portland would need a SF like Joe Ingles or Cam Johnson or Jerami Grant, etc. (although RoCo's defense is nice)

 

[Natebishop3]

RoCo has never been a good enough shooter from three to force defenses to cover his shooting threat.

This isn't really true. He has been a solid three point shooter in his career. He's a career 35% three point shooter, but unfortunately that has been trending downward the past couple years. He only shot 31% last year.

 

[wizenheimer]

This isn't really true. He has been a solid three point shooter in his career. He's a career 35% three point shooter, but unfortunately that has been trending downward the past couple years. He only shot 31% last year.

but that's my point...I don't believe any decent NBA defense will significantly flex to cover a 35% three point shooter. Not when Dame is on the floor and Trent/Hood are at SG. And especially when the opponent doesn't have to worry about Simmons lighting them up

 

[Tince]

Here's his draft profile after his year under Coach K. It actual appears we've got more out of him defensively than expected. That doesn't mean he's a good defender.

Weaknesses: Average run/jump athlete … Lacks explosiveness … Does not possess quick feet or lateral quickness… Plays mostly below the rim … Does not have an ideal combination of size, length, and leaping ability, which can make it hard for him to fight for rebounds or make plays at the rim at the next level … Can be a streaky shooter … Spotty shot selection at times … An inefficient scorer from inside the arc … Lacks an elite first step off the dribble … He’s not overly creative or explosive with the ball in his hands … Would rather bulldoze his way through opponents on his way to the basket … Lacking great speed, he relies heavily on his strength … Does not create for his teammates as much as you’d like to see … Can be categorized as a reluctant (or even bad) passer, often becoming too focused on scoring on offense … Decent, but not elite, ball-handler … Does not project as a great perimeter defender at the next level … Lacks fluidity in his movements for a wing player … Gives inconsistent effort on the defensive end of the floor … May struggle to guard quicker and more athletic players in one-on-one situations …Will need to show that he can consistently excel on defense … Prone to gamble for steals …

WEAKNESSES -Average athlete in terms of quickness and explosiveness -More of a shot-maker than a pure shooter. Very streaky, partially due to his poor shot-selection. Career 33.5% 3P% on over 450 attempts in DX database -Doesn't have much wiggle to his game. Wants to bulldoze his way through opponents. Relies heavily on his strength. Needs to add polish as a ball-handler. Ball slows him down. Wants to pull-up off the bounce at the first glimmer of daylight. -Reluctant passer. Never met a shot he didn't like. -Insistence on shooting long 2s, and below the rim style inside the paint makes him fairly inefficient scoring inside the arc -Inconsistent in his approach defensively. Doesn't always put enough pride in on this end of the floor. Doesn't have standout lateral quickness, so will get roasted at times off the bounce. Likes to gamble for steals - Source: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Gary-Trent-82914/ ©DraftExpress

 

[Natebishop3]

but that's my point...I don't believe any decent NBA defense will significantly flex to cover a 35% three point shooter. Not when Dame is on the floor and Trent/Hood are at SG. And especially when the opponent doesn't have to worry about Simmons lighting them up

35% should be good enough to keep defenses honest. Obviously he's not hitting that right now though.

With that said, if you have Simmons you can play Dame off the ball more, which would work really well.

 

[wizenheimer]

35% should be good enough to keep defenses honest. Obviously he's not hitting that right now though.

With that said, if you have Simmons you can play Dame off the ball more, which would work really well.

Aminu shot 35.3% from three for Portland and he never kept defenses honest. And when Turner was playing with Aminu, defenses packed the paint and doubled Dame, and Turner was a better shooter from the perimeter than Simmons. Essentially making 1 out or 3 FGA's from 3 just isn't going to stress a defense IMO. That's only 1 point per shot. Last year, Portland averaged 1.26 points/shot. This season they are averaging a shade under 1.26 points/shot. I don't believe any smart defense will worry about an opposing offensive option that averages 20% less points/shot than the team

 

[Natebishop3]

Aminu shot 35.3% from three for Portland and he never kept defenses honest. And when Turner was playing with Aminu, defenses packed the paint and doubled Dame, and Turner was a better shooter from the perimeter than Simmons. Essentially making 1 out or 3 FGA's from 3 just isn't going to stress a defense IMO. That's only 1 point per shot. Last year, Portland averaged 1.26 points/shot. This season they are averaging a shade under 1.26 points/shot. I don't believe any smart defense will worry about an opposing offensive option that averages 20% less points/shot than the team

Trent is a better three point shooter than CJ. At least by averages. He has shot above 40% the past two seasons and he's shooting 42.5% right now. Teams knew that CJ wasn't really a spotup shooter and would just dribble until he had a shot, not unlike Dame, so they could just shift from Dame to CJ. But if you spread the floor with Trent/RoCo and have Simmons run the point with Dame playing off the ball, you now have three good shooters to keep defenses honest.

If we had a center with even a remotely decent outside shot, it would really help with that. Really tempted to just trade for LMA and have him play the five.

 

[James lamphear]

If really look at we really don't have lock down defenders matter of fact there not to many lock down defenders in this league. Players get paid if they shoot the ball well especially from the 3. Good defending team defense make the player invidual defense looks good. There also lots going into defense stats for individual. Nurk has 110 defense rating has he been steller on the defense not really but when you get some blocks and double figures defense rebounds and maybe steal here and there that helps that stat. Kanter if you look at his stat he one better defender on the court for us but really how many people thinks that. Stats can be deceiving at times. Do you think Trent is better this year then he was in the bubble.

 

[handiman]

Aminu shot 35.3% from three for Portland and he never kept defenses honest. And when Turner was playing with Aminu, defenses packed the paint and doubled Dame, and Turner was a better shooter from the perimeter than Simmons. Essentially making 1 out or 3 FGA's from 3 just isn't going to stress a defense IMO. That's only 1 point per shot. Last year, Portland averaged 1.26 points/shot. This season they are averaging a shade under 1.26 points/shot. I don't believe any smart defense will worry about an opposing offensive option that averages 20% less points/shot than the team

I mostly agree, but an apples to apples comparison would require tweaking down that 1.26 pps to account for FT's, either on the shot itself or after the rebound with no resulting shot attempt. It would probably still have a healthy margin over Aminu/RoCo's ~1.05 pps.

 

[Minstrel]

Aminu shot 35.3% from three for Portland and he never kept defenses honest. And when Turner was playing with Aminu, defenses packed the paint and doubled Dame, and Turner was a better shooter from the perimeter than Simmons. Essentially making 1 out or 3 FGA's from 3 just isn't going to stress a defense IMO. That's only 1 point per shot. Last year, Portland averaged 1.26 points/shot. This season they are averaging a shade under 1.26 points/shot. I don't believe any smart defense will worry about an opposing offensive option that averages 20% less points/shot than the team

I think the only nit I'd pick with that is that that 35% mark is on all three-point shots, including the defended ones. The expectation is that the wide open ones would likely be knocked down at a greater rate--someone who shoots 35% overall probably shoots more like 40%+ when left wide open (and someone like Curry will shoot 50-60% if left wide open).

All that "respecting the shot" means is that they need to be guarded on the perimeter. I think Covington shoots well enough in general that defenses aren't going to want to leave him alone for three-point shots. 40% shooting on a wide open three is 1.20 points and, as an additional factor, defenses don't like letting teams nail open threes in particular, because a team finding a stroke from three can turn into a nightmare.

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

I think the only nit I'd pick with that is that that 35% mark is on all three-point shots, including the defended ones. The expectation is that the wide open ones would likely be knocked down at a greater rate--someone who shoots 35% overall probably shoots more like 40%+ when left wide open (and someone like Curry will shoot 50-60% if left wide open).

All that "respecting the shot" means is that they need to be guarded on the perimeter. I think Covington shoots well enough in general that defenses aren't going to want to leave him alone for three-point shots. 40% shooting on a wide open three is 1.20 points and, as an additional factor, defenses don't like letting teams nail open threes in particular, because a team finding a stroke from three can turn into a nightmare.

I just saw this; I don't know if it's pertinent: “Though nearly 60% of Covington’s long-range looks have qualified as open (defender between four and six feet away) or wide-open (defender six-plus feet away), he’s downing just 29.2% (19-of-65) of his above-the-break triples. His efficiency from the corners is somehow even worse, checking in at 21.4% (3-of-14)."

 

[Minstrel]

I just saw this; I don't know if it's pertinent: “Though nearly 60% of Covington’s long-range looks have qualified as open (defender between four and six feet away) or wide-open (defender six-plus feet away), he’s downing just 29.2% (19-of-65) of his above-the-break triples. His efficiency from the corners is somehow even worse, checking in at 21.4% (3-of-14)."

Well, yeah, that's relevant. If Covington is actually bricking his open shots, that would (eventually) cause defenses to ignore him. But, unless he's gotten the basketball version of the yips, that doesn't really make sense--that he'd be worse on easier shots. It's possible that it's a mental issue, but it's more likely (IMO) that it's just a weird sample size artifact. I don't think missing easy shots over this early stretch of games will be enough to end his reputation as a three-and-D guy with defenses, but at some point it will, if it continues.

 

[Natebishop3]

Well, yeah, that's relevant. If Covington is actually bricking his open shots, that would (eventually) cause defenses to ignore him. But, unless he's gotten the basketball version of the yips, that doesn't really make sense--that he'd be worse on easier shots. It's possible that it's a mental issue, but it's more likely (IMO) that it's just a weird sample size artifact. I don't think missing easy shots over this early stretch of games will be enough to end his reputation as a three-and-D guy with defenses, but at some point it will, if it continues.

I will say that his shooting wasn't particularly good last year either, so he went to a really consistent three point shooter to..... not really very good in just two years.

 

[wizenheimer]

I think the only nit I'd pick with that is that that 35% mark is on all three-point shots, including the defended ones. The expectation is that the wide open ones would likely be knocked down at a greater rate--someone who shoots 35% overall probably shoots more like 40%+ when left wide open (and someone like Curry will shoot 50-60% if left wide open).

All that "respecting the shot" means is that they need to be guarded on the perimeter. I think Covington shoots well enough in general that defenses aren't going to want to leave him alone for three-point shots. 40% shooting on a wide open three is 1.20 points and, as an additional factor, defenses don't like letting teams nail open threes in particular, because a team finding a stroke from three can turn into a nightmare.

I'm really not following you because those percentage comparisons I made between RoCo and Aminu were based upon a few thousand FGA's. So both the undefended and defended attempts are accounted for. Very few players only take shots when nobody is near.

and I never said that defenses wouldn't pay attention to RoCo. They'll generally know where he is...just like they did for Aminu, or Harkless for that matter. All I'm saying is that defenses won't flex toward RoCo enough when Simmons would be on the floor because they'll be leaving Simmons open, which would in turn keep defenders closer to RoCo.

and another factor we'd have to account for is the Stotts offense. We're already seeing that defenses have no regard for RoCo when Jones is on the floor, and Jones is a better shooter from the edge than Simmons. I think in order to take advantage of a Dame/Simmons pairing, Portland's SF and SG need to be a lot closer to 40% on three's than 35%. Being around 35% is not enough of a threat to a defense

Don't get me wrong...I'd love to see a Dame/Simmons team in Portland. I just don't believe RoCo is a good SF for it. In fact, the Simmons/RoCo thing didn't really work that well in Philly so there's some precedent there

 

[Hoopguru]

If Simmons is such a difference maker why would Philly trade him?

 

[Minstrel]

I'm really not following you because those percentage comparisons I made between RoCo and Aminu were based upon a few thousand FGA's. So both the undefended and defended attempts are accounted for. Very few players only take shots when nobody is near.

I wasn't saying the stats were underestimating Covington or making a point in relation to Aminu. I was saying that while 35% three-point shooting isn't hugely efficient itself, it's the shooting percentage of someone defenses don't want to leave open because someone who shoots 35% on all shots is likely to hit 40% or better if left alone.

and I never said that defenses wouldn't pay attention to RoCo. They'll generally know where he is...just like they did for Aminu, or Harkless for that matter. All I'm saying is that defenses won't flex toward RoCo enough when Simmons would be on the floor because they'll be leaving Simmons open, which would in turn keep defenders closer to RoCo.

You were disputing that Covington can "keep defenses honest," which to me means that the player's defender can't leave them to zone up or drift into a soft double-team elsewhere on the court. I think Covington definitely merits enough defensive attention that his defender isn't generally going to leave him--when he's shooting at his career norms, anyway.

I think in order to take advantage of a Dame/Simmons pairing, Portland's SF and SG need to be a lot closer to 40% on three's than 35%. Being around 35% is not enough of a threat to a defense

I think 35% is sufficient threat for the reason I mentioned above--35% overall means a very efficient three-point shooter if left open. For spacing, you need guys who can't be left. I think that Covington actually needs to get back to being that guy, as his slump is killing the team. Now, if somehow Covington has simply lost the ability to shoot permanently, then he's a pure liability.

 

[Natebishop3]

If Simmons is such a difference maker why would Philly trade him?

Because like us, they're stagnant.

 

[Hoopguru]

Because like us, they're stagnant.

Then why not trade Embid? Because, he a very good two way player. If they traded Simmons, it would be for a knock down shooter from 3, which he isn't.
We need wings that can score inside out and play D.

 

[boredinsalem]

I wonder what Trent's trade value is, and if we could acquire someone that's a better fit next to Simons for him? I'm curious about Ntilikina (value probably less than Trent) and Lu Dort (value probably way higher than Trent). It seems like both would fit in a 4 guard rotation with Dame/CJ/Simons and be able to play some minutes at the 3.

 

[Natebishop3]

Then why not trade Embid? Because, he a very good two way player. If they traded Simmons, it would be for a knock down shooter from 3, which he isn't.
We need wings that can score inside out and play D.

From what I understand, Simmons was all but traded for Harden when the Rocket owner said fuck you to Morey.

They want to pair a really good guard with Embiid.

 

[Hoopguru]

From what I understand, Simmons was all but traded for Harden when the Rocket owner said fuck you to Morey.

They want to pair a really good guard with Embiid.

Though he was a really good point guard?