I like my chances as a Dubs fan. I know the Nugs only lost 3 at home all year. But they preyed a lot on tired teams on long road trips and back to backs. The W's BARELY lost the first game and whooped ass in Denver in the second game. Its a bad matchup for Denver for a few reasons. Firstly, Denver is highly successful because they're a very good rebounding team. However the Warriors are the #1 defensive rebounding team. They're not going to get killed too bad on the offensive glass and it takes away part of Denver's strength. Lee's absence hurts, but Faried being injured/out neutralizes that.
Secondly, Denver loves to run. GS doesn't have athletes like Denver, but I've yet to see a team this year whose strategy was to run, run, run against us. Golden State is a jump shooting team, but its not necessarily a condemning trait like it may normally be because they're just so fucking good at jumpshooting. GS shot 65% tonight partly because they sprung their outside shooters on the break. Typically the opposition tries to muddle the game, if Denver wants to run because thats "their game", thats perfectly fine by me.
The Warriors shot great tonight, but IMO the elite defensive teams wouldn't let them shoot that well. This was a road game in Denver. They're a great shooting team, but they're not that good. Denver wants to run, and that plays to GS's advantage just as much as theirs. They think they can still pound us in the paint, but so far that has not been the case at all. We'll see if they do any better in Oakland.