The Playoff Chase

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TBpup

TBpup

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Whether it is with a record we have come to expect from a 'playoff' team or not, the Blazers find themselves just a 1/2 game out of the #8 Playoff spot with likely their easiest stretch of games for the rest of the season starting this week.

When we all prognosticated records back before the season, even those projecting wins in the 30's didn't think that would get them anywhere close to a post-season berth. However, outside of the Top-2, the West seems to have declined significantly and for the first time in years, the East owns the advantage against the West in terms of conference versus conference wins.

Portland is on pace for 35 wins which is right about where the #8 seed has tracked for much of the season. Now Portland may go on a nice run here in the next week or so playing the Sisters of the Poor but outside of Atlanta at home, there are not very many games against quality opponents. After Atlanta, the next 5 teams have a combined winning percentage of .402 and Portland should be favored in every one of them.

If the Blazers go 5-1 in that stretch, that would put them at 24-26 and should firmly put them in the #8 Playoff spot with a projected match-up against the #1 seeded Warriors. At least their record would closer to .500 but would easily be the lowest percentage record in years in the West.

  • How would you feel in the Blazers made the Playoffs but then won just one game like in the last two playoff series against Memphis and San Antonio?
  • Is that lopsided of a series still a learning process and if so, how?
  • How much of this roster will still be around to learn from whatever Playoff experience there is?
  • What did the Blazers learn from the Houston series a couple years ago that translated forward?

The Blazers beat Houston but then in their next two Playoff series won a total of 2 games. How did that experience help? I'm not saying it didn't but what tangible things can we point to? Now as you know, I’ve been more in favor of keeping the Lottery pick this season and giving up the pick next season when they are a better team and likely a playoff team with some development and additional assets. Now they are #10 but because the West is worse than the East, you could go from the #10 Lottery pick to the Playoffs because the non-playoff teams in the East have better records and will take picks #11-14.

So is the experience worth the #10 pick? That is essentially what it boils down to. If this roster has enough future, long-term pieces, then you go after the Playoffs full force and build on that process and experience for whatever it is worth. If not, has the West fallen so much we may make the Playoffs anyhow in a season it really wasn’t deserved like passed years in the East? If that were the case, it will then cost the Blazers that asset and one more year of Damian’s prime part of his career.
 
  • How would you feel in the Blazers made the Playoffs but then won just one game like in the last two playoff series against Memphis and San Antonio?
  • I'd be a little upset if we weren't more competitive than that, but the season would have been a resounding success.

  • Is that lopsided of a series still a learning process and if so, how?
  • Absolutely. If we can reach the playoffs with this roster, it will show just how strong a leader Lillard is, and regardless of other circumstances, Playoffs > Lottery, and it ain't even close.

  • How much of this roster will still be around to learn from whatever Playoff experience there is?
  • My guess would be between 9 and 12 players would return to a playoff team. Between 5 and 8 would return to a lottery team.

  • What did the Blazers learn from the Houston series a couple years ago that translated forward?
  • That roster learned a LOT about the difference in how the game is played between regular season and the playoffs. Much more physical, much different refereeing, much less margin for error.
 
TBpup said:
  • How would you feel in the Blazers made the Playoffs but then won just one game like in the last two playoff series against Memphis and San Antonio?
  • Is that lopsided of a series still a learning process and if so, how?
  • How much of this roster will still be around to learn from whatever Playoff experience there is?
  • What did the Blazers learn from the Houston series a couple years ago that translated forward?
Click to expand...

Dismayed that we lost an asset just for the privilege of keeping GSW's legs warm while they wait for a more legitimate opponent.
No. At best it shows that Dame is able to duplicate the past two seasons without Wes/Nic/LMA. And maybe it'll further stoke Dame's competitive fire, but I'm not concerned about that.
Dame, CJ, Plumlee, Aminu, Davis, Crabbe, Vonleh...maybe Leonard. All of whom have some amount of experience already except for Plumlee (?). Although hopefully we'd see a trade, which surely would have to include at least 2 of those players.
Nothing. As great as that HOU victory was, it was fools gold. Two miracle games from LMA, topped by a miracle shot from Dame.
 
Great responses and I enjoy the explanations and different viewpoints.

BlazerWookee said:
  • Is that lopsided of a series still a learning process and if so, how?
  • Absolutely. If we can reach the playoffs with this roster, it will show just how strong a leader Lillard is, and regardless of other circumstances, Playoffs > Lottery, and it ain't even close.
  • What did the Blazers learn from the Houston series a couple years ago that translated forward?
  • That roster learned a LOT about the difference in how the game is played between regular season and the playoffs. Much more physical, much different refereeing, much less margin for error.
Click to expand...

Normally I'd agree with reaching the Playoffs > Lottery....but as of right now, Portland should be nowhere near the Playoffs and only is because much of the West has declined so much. So is making the Playoffs with a historically low win total the same as being the #8 seed with 50 wins a couple of years ago?

I would also submit they already knew the Playoffs would be more physical with different refereeing etc. We as fans all know that and we've never been in a similar Playoff series at that level. Perhaps it was more imprinted on them but it didn't seem to help against SA or MEM afterwards.
 
blue9 said:
Nothing. As great as that HOU victory was, it was fools gold. Two miracle games from LMA, topped by a miracle shot from Dame.
Click to expand...

Not true; we learned that LMA wants the spotlight and holds a grudge if someone else takes it. If Dame hadn't hit 0.9 and we still won the series, and were singing LMA's praises all the next season, he might have been happier. But NOOOooOOOOoooOOOO... he was overshadowed by a better play.
 
Dave Deckard of BlazersEdge had a brilliant statement that I'll try to quote as closely as possible to what I can remember he said.

"There is a big difference between competing FOR the Playoffs and competing IN the Playoffs."

Outstanding!! I would love for the Blazers to be competing for the Playoffs in a season they would be competing IN the Playoffs. I don't believe that is where we are at so that is a lot of preferring a good Lottery pick....which is not where we are at either. In the middle is that nefarious 'purgatory' position in the middle.
 
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  • How would you feel in the Blazers made the Playoffs but then won just one game like in the last two playoff series against Memphis and San Antonio?
  • Pretty much what Wookee said. I'd like to have the team win at least a couple of games, but the season still would have been successful.
  • Is that lopsided of a series still a learning process and if so, how?
  • Sure. Players have to learn to play in the kind of intense atmosphere that the playoffs bring. They have to learn how to make adjustments between games and learn that the way the game is played is different in terms of pace and defensive intensity.
  • How much of this roster will still be around to learn from whatever Playoff experience there is?
  • Hard to say for sure because it depends on what free agents may be willing to sign here and what trades may occur. Regardless of that, playoffs are a chance for players to show their games on a bigger stage and improve their values, either to the Blazers or as trade assets. It also shows management which players can step up their games in response to playoff pressure and may help in making roster decisions.
  • What did the Blazers learn from the Houston series a couple years ago that translated forward?
  • I agree with what Wookee posted on this one. It was a step that needed to be taken in order to take the next step.
My overall position is that the Blazers aren't going to finish with a poor enough record to have a realistic shot at anything better than a 7-10 pick in the draft and there's not likely to be an asset available in that range that can't be obtained by other means.
 
TBpup said:
Whether it is with a record we have come to expect from a 'playoff' team or not, the Blazers find themselves just a 1/2 game out of the #8 Playoff spot with likely their easiest stretch of games for the rest of the season starting this week.

When we all prognosticated records back before the season, even those projecting wins in the 30's didn't think that would get them anywhere close to a post-season berth. However, outside of the Top-2, the West seems to have declined significantly and for the first time in years, the East owns the advantage against the West in terms of conference versus conference wins.

Portland is on pace for 35 wins which is right about where the #8 seed has tracked for much of the season. Now Portland may go on a nice run here in the next week or so playing the Sisters of the Poor but outside of Atlanta at home, there are not very many games against quality opponents. After Atlanta, the next 5 teams have a combined winning percentage of .402 and Portland should be favored in every one of them.

If the Blazers go 5-1 in that stretch, that would put them at 24-26 and should firmly put them in the #8 Playoff spot with a projected match-up against the #1 seeded Warriors. At least their record would closer to .500 but would easily be the lowest percentage record in years in the West.

  • How would you feel in the Blazers made the Playoffs but then won just one game like in the last two playoff series against Memphis and San Antonio?
  • Is that lopsided of a series still a learning process and if so, how?
  • How much of this roster will still be around to learn from whatever Playoff experience there is?
  • What did the Blazers learn from the Houston series a couple years ago that translated forward?
Click to expand...

Truth. I thought we would win 38 games and end up with like 7th or 8th.

How would you feel in the Blazers made the Playoffs but then won just one game like in the last two playoff series against Memphis and San Antonio?
Excellent. Making the playoffs would be a huge success based off the standards this team was held to coming into the season. So far they have pretty much out preformed expectations, probably even what they expected of themselves prior to the season. You got the sense that they knew they had a solid crew, just based off their attitudes after Dame gathered them together and started getting to know one another on and off the court. I remember Ed Davis saying something about how they were really confident in the group because they all had the same goals.

Dame won't learn anything from getting bounced in the first that he hasn't already learned from the playoffs.

For the most part I think that Dame, CJ, Meyers, Crabbe...all know enough that they wouldn't benefit singularly from a first round clobbering. That being said I think those guys, especially Dame and CJ could use a first round clobbering to show some of the other guys what they are talking about.

How much of this roster will still be around to learn from whatever Playoff experience there is?
I think if they make the playoffs then everybody stays around. Maybe we let Gerald and Kaman walk, but re-sign Meyers, Harkless, Crabbe and Frazier. I'm sure there's a number that they are willing to offer all of those guys, and that number allows all of them to come back. It's up to these guys to decide whether or not they like the atmosphere enough to stay here, when they might get a few more million from another team. It's that kind of team first mentality that championship contenders are almost required to have in today's league. I doubt that many of the players on the Warriors, Cavs, or Spurs are CTC.

What did the Blazers learn from the Houston series a couple years ago that translated forward?
I'm not sure that they learned as much from the Houston series as they did from the Spurs series. But that must have been a big lesson for Dame. To go from King of the Hill after making the shot, to getting whooped by the Spurs in the next round... Ultimately they will learn how to play their style of basketball in a playoff environment. Be it for 4 games, or 16-20, they will get some much needed time playing together in that situation.
 
Thoughts:

We learned a lot from the Memphis series. I don't think any of us realized how good CJ and Meyers could be until we watched them thriving in the playoffs. This year, we'll learn more about how the others react to the pressure of the playoffs. Aminu had a great playoffs last year. Let's see how he and Plumlee and Vonleh perform in the playoffs. Stars can be born in late April and early May.

The 2007-08 Hawks were 37-45 and faced the 66-16 Boston Celtics and this happened:



The 2006-07 Mavericks were 67-15 even though they lost their first four games of the season and this happened:



It was a blowout. Anything can happen. The Sonics destroyed the Nuggets in the first two games of the 1994 Playoffs and then the Nuggets won three straight and advanced.
 
I do appreciate rare examples... heck, three people just split the Lottery. But the odds were still not in their favor and its not a good way to plan.
Also, what good did most of those upsets do going forward?
 
TBpup said:
I do appreciate rare examples... heck, three people just split the Lottery. But the odds were still not in their favor and its not a good way to plan.
Also, what good did most of those upsets do going forward?
Click to expand...
man some of you guys act like if it doesn't result in a ring then it's no good. You'll never be happy as a fan at all thinking that way
 
I think too many people look at this team as a short term thing, when they should be looking at it as 5 year plan. Five years being how long until Dame is due for his next contract. I think Dame believes in the future of the team and he trusts Neil to put the team in a winning position. It's possible that Olshey would evaluate the team after 3 seasons if they have bottomed out two years in the playoffs. But until then I think the belief is that if this team has enough raw talent to make the playoffs with only one season together, then in 2 years it's possible you might not need to make any trades.

Ask yourself how long until you think these guys should really be ready as a group to compete for a championship. I feel if you say anything less than 3 years then you are holding way too high of expectations.

Also keep in mind that Dame is the player with the most playoff experience on this team now. Other players like Aminu, Davis, Plumlee have made the playoffs but not in the same role they are in now.
 
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Overall if you get what you want I don't think you should be disappointed with where it takes you. You want these guys to grow and develop as a group, and buy into the unselfish team style of play that the staff is trying to build here. Part of becoming that place is letting players grow and develop in the system. It's what makes the Spurs so successful over the years, and keeps players wanting to go there. They take a guy like Patty Mills and have him as a role player for a handful of seasons until Tony Parker leaves, and then he knows the system and can take over without a big transition at that position. Then they find someone nice later on in the draft who can fill that role, just like they are doing with Kyle Anderson right now.

You get to this point by relying on young players to develop, and as long as they are showing more and more potential, and continue to develop, then there isn't too much of a reason not to see how far they can go. If that happens to be a 4-0 pounding to the Warriors, then you come back next season and maybe you see a few guys playing a bit harder to get home court.
 
Fonzthecpt1 said:
Overall if you get what you want I don't think you should be disappointed with where it takes you. You want these guys to grow and develop as a group, and buy into the unselfish team style of play that the staff is trying to build here. Part of becoming that place is letting players grow and develop in the system. It's what makes the Spurs so successful over the years, and keeps players wanting to go there. They take a guy like Patty Mills and have him as a role player for a handful of seasons until Tony Parker leaves, and then he knows the system and can take over without a big transition at that position. Then they find someone nice later on in the draft who can fill that role, just like they are doing with Kyle Anderson right now.

You get to this point by relying on young players to develop, and as long as they are showing more and more potential, and continue to develop, then there isn't too much of a reason not to see how far they can go. If that happens to be a 4-0 pounding to the Warriors, then you come back next season and maybe you see a few guys playing a bit harder to get home court.
Click to expand...

The Spurs somehow sign players at half what they're worth, like Duncan. For us, we'll have to eventually break up the best players because payroll will add up to too much.
 
jlprk said:
The Spurs somehow sign players at half what they're worth, like Duncan. For us, we'll have to eventually break up the best players because payroll will add up to too much.
Click to expand...
The Spurs sign everyone to contracts that allow them to put these things in place. They were able to keep a winning culture in place without going through a lengthy rebuild, which kept the players wanting to be there. Once they finally put a team together which won a championship they kept the group together which constantly stayed competitive in the West, until eventually players in their prime from other teams are willing to take a pay cut to play there, because they want the stability and chance to win.
 
Tim Duncan and David West took huge paycuts to bring back teammates...Dirk did it.. when Parsons got overpaid..it's rare but it happens. Pops has an amazing knack for talking players into things like that
 
Fonzthecpt1 said:
I think too many people look at this team as a short term thing, when they should be looking at it as 5 year plan. Five years being how long until Dame is due for his next contract. I think Dame believes in the future of the team and he trusts Neil to put the team in a winning position. It's possible that Olshey would evaluate the team after 3 seasons if they have bottomed out two years in the playoffs. But until then I think the belief is that if this team has enough raw talent to make the playoffs with only one season together, then in 2 years it's possible you might not need to make any trades.

Ask yourself how long until you think these guys should really be ready as a group to compete for a championship. I feel if you say anything less than 3 years then you are holding way too high of expectations.

Also keep in mind that Dame is the player with the most playoff experience on this team now. Other players like Aminu, Davis, Plumlee have made the playoffs but not in the same role they are in now.
Click to expand...

dontdie.gif
 
BonesJones said:
man some of you guys act like if it doesn't result in a ring then it's no good. You'll never be happy as a fan at all thinking that way
Click to expand...

Getting into the playoffs is no good unless you make the WCF.
Getting a pick in the draft is no good unless you can get the next Durant\Anthony Davis.

etc etc...
 
Like jinxspeed said. I remember rooting for the warriors when the beat the top seeded Mavs. Don nelson was pure genius coaching wise. I think that is the big key if we face the warriors 1st round. Can stotts come up with a game plan that at least makes us competitive? Or do we just lay down and get steam rolled?

If he can pull out 2 well executed wins and not get blown out in the 4 loses id be comfortable with him as head coach going forward. If we got blown out 4 in a row and make no adjustments id want new coach.
 
For anyone wanting to lure free agents, how great would it be to steam roll the warriors who are likely to beat the regular season record? Id like to see the media try to hide that shit and not talk about blazers then. Im sure refs would never allow it but I can dream.
 
Blazers Roy said:
Getting into the playoffs is no good unless you make the WCF.
Getting a pick in the draft is no good unless you can get the next Durant\Anthony Davis.

etc etc...
Click to expand...
Seriously haha.. Some dude said on this forum today that Lillards shot to beat Houston was fools gold and didn't mean anything...
 
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