The Race for Eighth (1 Viewer)

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DDolla said:
Any status on Lazy Hassan’s so called Hip injury? Is he going to play or did he already quit on us?
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There really is no reason to think that Hassan is sitting due to him having to come off the bench. When he had attitude problems in the past he wasn't coy about it. He was complaining and the media knew it. He hasn't complained at all that I've seen, have you seen anything? I think his sluggish play at the beginning of the bubble was due to this injury and I think they've been trying to get him right for these last, most important games, so he can contribute. I wouldn't be surprised to see him back and playing hard like he did before the stoppage starting tomorrow. That is unless the injury is really serious and then we might not see him back. I just don't think he would risk the money he stands to make by playing hard, for his ego. If he's doing what you're implying he's doing and teams call Neil which they will (and Hassan knows this), Neil will tell them that Hassan quit and Hassan's value will tank.
 
julius said:
If I'm dallas, I rest my guys. They can't move up, they can't move down. Plus, with the way Portland seems to play with teams when they're short-handed, they'll probably still win!
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Oh no, Dallas definitely can move up. If they beat us and the Spurs beat the Jazz then the Jazz move to the 6th seed and don't have to play the Clippers. Edit: Dallas has to beat us and the Suns but if they do that and the Jazz lose their last game, they'll pass the Jazz.
 
julius said:
If I'm dallas, I rest my guys. They can't move up, they can't move down. Plus, with the way Portland seems to play with teams when they're short-handed, they'll probably still win!
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Dallas can move up to 6th since they won today. Tomorrow will be our toughest game.
 
Dallas can move to 5th actually if OKC and Utah lose out and Dallas go to 2-0.
 
julius said:
If I'm dallas, I rest my guys. They can't move up, they can't move down. Plus, with the way Portland seems to play with teams when they're short-handed, they'll probably still win!
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Bro, the mavericks dont want the 7th seed and play the Clippers, they gonna play their best players tomorrow to win.
 
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Rastapopoulos said:
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Looking at this I am going to stand by what I said before and say we need to just handle business and win out but I think if we did lose one of the last two we would still end up in the eighth spot. The Grizz are going to lose out in my opinion and I think the Suns and Spurs will both lose their last game especially if we lose to the Mavs. I think we will get that eighth spot and win one of the two play-in games to get that eighth seed. Everyone start thinking about how we could possibly beat the Lakers. Unless you are someone on the Blazers payroll, all of you have to take this one game at a time... even you @THE HCP .
 
KSF-ERIC said:
Dallas can move up to 6th since they won today. Tomorrow will be our toughest game.
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I hate how the standings are updated quickly, thats what threw me off.
 
Mediocre Man said:
I can’t remember who said it, but they were right.......ONCE AGAIN, when they said it doesn’t matter what anyone else does, all we have to do is take care of our wins.
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Yeah if we win out and so does everyone else, we are in a good spot because we can beat the Grizz two times in a row. If we win out and the Suns or Spurs sneak in, I think we can definitely take one of two from either of them. Obviously best case scenario is that we win out and the Grizz lose one... then we just have to beat the Grizz once and I think we'd do that pretty handily in the first game, then have a day to rest before the playoffs start.
 
There's 8 games left in the battle for 8th/9th seeds. Thus 2 to the power of 8 permutations of possible win loss outcomes. This comes out to 256 distinct outcomes. I ran out all of these possible outcomes in excel. Then calculated ending record, win percentage, ranked for seed, and adjusted for Memphis having tiebreaker over Phoenix.

The result is as follows, I'll explain for Memphis then list percentages for each team.

Memphis was the 8th seed in 169 possibilities, the 9th seed in 65 possibilities, out of the playin in 22 possibilities. Thus memphis is the 8th seed 66.0% of the time, the 9th seed 25.4% of the time, out of the playin 8.6% of the time.

Team% 8th 9th out
Mem 66.0 25.4 8.6
Pdx 25.8 33.6 40.6
Phx 4.7 25.0 70.3
SAS 3.5 16.0 80.5

Now these probabilities effectively are based on each game bring 50/50 of who would win. I think the actual odds are way different but accounting for that variance would make my 256 outcomes exponentially more complicated to calculate. I do think this is a better method than Kevin Pelton using real plus minus though.
 
WesleyMatthews said:
There's 8 games left in the battle for 8th/9th seeds. Thus 2 to the power of 8 permutations of possible win loss outcomes. This comes out to 256 distinct outcomes. I ran out all of these possible outcomes in excel. Then calculated ending record, win percentage, ranked for seed, and adjusted for Memphis having tiebreaker over Phoenix.

The result is as follows, I'll explain for Memphis then list percentages for each team.

Memphis was the 8th seed in 169 possibilities, the 9th seed in 65 possibilities, out of the playin in 22 possibilities. Thus memphis is the 8th seed 66.0% of the time, the 9th seed 25.4% of the time, out of the playin 8.6% of the time.

Team% 8th 9th out
Mem 66.0 25.4 8.6
Pdx 25.8 33.6 40.6
Phx 4.7 25.0 70.3
SAS 3.5 16.0 80.5

Now these probabilities effectively are based on each game bring 50/50 of who would win. I think the actual odds are way different but accounting for that variance would make my 256 outcomes exponentially more complicated to calculate. I do think this is a better method than Kevin Pelton using real plus minus though.
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Crazy how all that works. One loss by any team and it all changes radically.
 
We can clinch a spot in the play-in if we win and SA/PHX both lose. Come on, basketball Gods. You owe us after Saturday. MEM losing would be even bigger if we want #8.

Spurs-Rockets at 2 pm EST
Suns-Sixers at 4:30 pm EST
Grizzlies-Celtics at 5 pm EST
Blazers-Mavs at 6:30 pm EST


How the hell am I supposed to get any work done today?
 
I have a feeling Dallas is really going to try to beat us today, then when they play Phoenix, they will give them the win just because reasons.
 
So at the moment it's still possible we could be facing any of Memphis, Phoenix or San Antonio? (Or is it impossible for the Spurs to finish above Memphis?)

Whom would we want most? I say Memphis, obviously. Phoenix would be pretty scary given how well they've clicked in the bubble, and the Spurs are always insanely well-prepared.
 
Rastapopoulos said:
So at the moment it's still possible we could be facing any of Memphis, Phoenix or San Antonio? (Or is it impossible for the Spurs to finish above Memphis?)

Whom would we want most? I say Memphis, obviously. Phoenix would be pretty scary given how well they've clicked in the bubble, and the Spurs are always insanely well-prepared.
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Also still possible the Blazers don't make it at all. I would rather they worry about that first but if there was a choice give the Blazers the 8th spot vs Memphis.
 
Gah! All these potential scenarios are overwhelming my senior citizen brain!

If we lose today, are we officially eliminated, or just realistically screwed ?
 
oldmangrouch said:
Gah! All these potential scenarios are overwhelming my senior citizen brain!

If we lose today, are we officially eliminated, or just realistically screwed ?
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screwed, but not eliminated. Especially if PHX and SA also lose.

Rules of thumb to simplify:
Root for MEM, SA, PHX to lose.
 
James Harden is not playing today. Wow, that loss against the Clippers trying to tank is REALLY going to come back to haunt us.
 
B-Roy said:
James Harden is not playing today. Wow, that loss against the Clippers trying to tank is REALLY going to come back to haunt us.
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i hate having to rely on other teams. Ya we control our own destiny for now, but we have essentially 0 margin for error.

Today is just reinforcing my hate for Houston and even Westbrook. dude is absolute trash when he has the ball in his hands 24/7
 
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