The Race for Eighth

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Its crazy that the 538 predictor has NOP with a 7% chance of the playoffs but PHX with 3%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-predictions/

It seems like they are setting the probablity of a win based on opponents attributes that lead to its season record.... thats totally worthless with all the resting and tanking for position going on. It would be more accurate to just list every game as 50/50 chance of each team winning.
 
NOP needs to win out, have Phoenix lose a game, and either;

Memphis go 0-3 or
PDX go 1-3

I don't see how there is a 7% chance of that all happening... seems more like 1 out of 100



Phoenix needs to win out and have either;
Memphis go 0-3 or
PDX go 2-2

That seems much more likely... probably 15% or such.
 
Correct me if I'm wrong: we can eliminate Sacramento with a win tomorrow. Also- if NO loses tonight, we can eliminate them too. Because our record the worse we could be is 33-41 and the best they could be is 32-40. Pretty cool. Go Blazers!
 
Sacramento cannot catch Memphis. They would need to win out 3-0, have all three of;
us go 0-4
Phoenix go 2-2
Spurs go 1-2

I consider them eliminated... thats probably a 1 in 1000 chance of all happening.
 
KSF-ERIC said:
Correct me if I'm wrong: we can eliminate Sacramento with a win tomorrow. Also- if NO loses tonight, we can eliminate them too. Because our record the worse we could be is 33-41 and the best they could be is 32-40. Pretty cool. Go Blazers!
Click to expand...
788C1aT.png
 
Omg this thread is spinning my head around so fast.
Someone let me know when we are a lock or out mathematically. Lol.
I do appreciate the efforts to keep it straight though!
 
brooklynballer said:
I don’t think the Blazers have the tiebreaker with Memphis. The Blazers went 1-1 in the head-to-head matchups this season so the next tiebreaker would be conference record given that they’re not in the same division. As of right now, Memphis has a better conference record at 20-26 (to Portland’s 19-26).
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It doesn’t matter. It’s impossible for us to tie them since we played a different amount of games before restart.
 
So are we rooting for Spurs or the Pelicans tomorrow? I think we root for Spurs.
 
B-Roy said:
You root for the Pelicans because we own the tiebreaker over them. We are essentially an extra game ahead of them.
Click to expand...
But they have an “easy” schedule after the Spurs game. Need them to lose this one, I think.
 
Wow. Suns. Mad respect for them. They're only a half game behind us now.
 
KSF-ERIC said:
But they have an “easy” schedule after the Spurs game. Need them to lose this one, I think.
Click to expand...

They need to win out and we need to go 0-3 for them to pass us.
 
B-Roy said:
They need to win out and we need to go 0-3 for them to pass us.
Click to expand...
I don't think so.

If NO wins out, they are 33-39
If we go 1-2, we are 33-41. So we don't have to lose out for them to make play-in.

Remember- when we have a tie with them isn't we have the same amount of wins. It's the same GB. 33-39 beats 33-41. We need to win 2 of our games to stop a NO team that wins three straight.
 
I've decided that I can't concern myself with these other teams trying to get into that eighth seed. Our team just needs to take care of business. If our guys play the next 5 games (maybe it will only have to be 4) with intensity for every minute, with intent every play on both ends of the court and if we will just use the fucking Dame/Nurk pick and roll more often, then we are more than capable of winning all of those games. Just look at the Houston game and add in some more pick and roll action with Dame and Nurk. That would put us in the playoffs and set a precedent for how the team will play during the playoffs.
 
blazerkor said:
I've decided that I can't concern myself with these other teams trying to get into that eighth seed. Our team just needs to take care of business. If our guys play the next 5 games (maybe it will only have to be 4) with intensity for every minute, with intent every play on both ends of the court and if we will just use the fucking Dame/Nurk pick and roll more often, then we are more than capable of winning all of those games. Just look at the Houston game and add in some more pick and roll action with Dame and Nurk. That would put us in the playoffs and set a precedent for how the team will play during the playoffs.
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I second this. Great post.
 
KSF-ERIC said:
I don't think so.

If NO wins out, they are 33-39
If we go 1-2, we are 33-41. So we don't have to lose out for them to make play-in.

Remember- when we have a tie with them isn't we have the same amount of wins. It's the same GB. 33-39 beats 33-41. We need to win 2 of our games to stop a NO team that wins three straight.
Click to expand...
You're right, brain fart. But 2-1 gets us in over them winning out. So we ideally just need to split one of the next two, then beat Brooklyn.
 
Interesting thing to follow too: if Mavs lose tonight, they'll have nothing to play for against us. Sixers unfortunately have a lot to play for and the Nets might too.
 
What if we are tied with Suns or either Spurs or Pelicans ?
 
Labinot41 said:
What if we are tied with Suns or either Spurs or Pelicans ?
Click to expand...
There are no ties, we can't end up with the same record as any of the teams that are vying for the play-in. We'll have played more games than all of them.
 
Labinot41 said:
What if we are tied with Suns or either Spurs or Pelicans ?
Click to expand...
You probably don't need this extra explanation but usually at the end of the season you just look at what team is either more games above .500 or in this case less games below .500 but this season is different because different teams had played more or less games coming into the bubble and every team only got eight more games in the bubble. So if we are the same amount of games below .500 as NOLA or Sac because they will end with an even amount of games and so will we, (SA and PHX can't be the same amount of games below .500 as us because they will end with an odd amount of games) then we will be ahead of NOLA and/or Sac by percentage points because we have played more games, so we would be ahead of them not tied with them.
 
blazerkor said:
You probably don't need this extra explanation but usually at the end of the season you just look at what team is either more games above .500 or in this case less games below .500 but this season is different because different teams had played more or less games coming into the bubble and every team only got eight more games in the bubble. So if we are the same amount of games below .500 as NOLA or Sac because they will end with an even amount of games and so will we, (SA and PHX can't be the same amount of games below .500 as us because they will end with an odd amount of games) then we will be ahead of NOLA and/or Sac by percentage points because we have played more games, so we would be ahead of them not tied with them.
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It was a real advantage for us because all the teams are sub .500. Thank you, Adam Silver!
 
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