The Race for Eighth

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Nothing really matters below us. The cushion we had for 9 is gone., but the good news is if we win out, we're at least No. 9.
 
I hope this isn't already discussed. I did some crunching of #s, and I think it plays out like this.

Grizzlies can be:

33-40 (0-3) for .452
34-39 (1-2) for .465
35-38 (2-1) for .479
36-38 (3-0) for .493

Portland can be:
32-42 (0-3) for .432
33-41 (1-2) for .445
34-40 (2-1) for .459
35-39 (3-0) for .472

Suns can be:
31-42 (0-3) for .424
32-41 (1-2) for .438
33-40 (2-1) for .452
34-39 (3-0) for .465

Spurs can be:
30-41 (0-3) for .422
31-40 (1-2) for .436
32-39 (2-1) for .450
33-38 (3-0) for .464

Pelicans can be:
30-42 (0-3) for .416
31-41 (1-2) for .430
32-40 (2-1) for .444
33-39 (3-0) for .458

Kings can be:
29-43 (0-3) for .402
30-42 (1-2) for .416
31-41 (2-1) for .430
32-42 (3-0) for .444

So if my math is right IF:

If Portland goes 0-3, they end up at .432 winning %. To pass them, the Spurs would need to go 1-2, same with Phoenix. The Pelicans would need to go 2-1 and the Kings would need to go 3-0.

If Portland goes 1-2, the Spurs and Suns need to go 2-1 to pass them, and Pelicans need to go 3-0, and the Kings couldn't pass them.

If Portland goes 2-1, the Spurs and Suns need to go 3-0 to pass them and the Pelicans can't.

If Portland goes 3-0, no one can pass them.

To get the #8 seed outright (yay?), the Blazers need the Grizzlies to go 0-3 (.452) or 1-2 (.465), and the Blazers HAVE to go 2-1 (.459) and 3-0 (.472) respectfully.

It seems to me that the Grizzlies have the best chance at staying the #8 seed, because all of their opponents (Raptors, Celtics and Bucks) have zero motivation to win those games. They each could go 0-fer and their standing in the Eastern conference is not changed at all.

I just realized there are too many variables for my brain to comprehend...so in a nut shell, the Blazers need to win 2 games and hope for a Suns and Spurs loss. So root for the Pelicans tomorrow, and the *puke* Thunder on Monday and hope Portland can get their shit together against the 76ers tomorrow and the Nets, or hope the Mavs rest their entire team.
 
Chris Craig said:
Not when the Suns win out
Click to expand...
The Suns can win as many games as they want to but they'll still be below .500. If you are saying it will no longer be an advantage to us because they will have passed us then I'd have to disagree. Our team is completely capable of playing better than they did against the Rockets going forward and I think that kind of effort will easily win us all of our remaining games and the play-in games or game.
 
Suns will play Okc, 76ers and Dallas. They have to lose at least one game, i mean c'mon it's the freaking suns, how do they play like the 97 Bulls all of sudden? It seems like they can not lose right now, so crazy
 
Great post, Julius. 15 years ago, I used to post with energy and imagination like that on ESPN. I used to be a numbers guy.

That post makes me realize how old I got.

That post really sucks.
 
jlprk said:
Great post, Julius. 15 years ago, I used to post with energy and imagination like that on ESPN. I used to be a numbers guy.

That post makes me realize how old I got.

That post really sucks.
Click to expand...
Wait, was it a "great post" or was it that "that post really sucks."?
 
julius said:
I hope this isn't already discussed. I did some crunching of #s, and I think it plays out like this.

Grizzlies can be:

33-40 (0-3) for .452
34-39 (1-2) for .465
35-38 (2-1) for .479
36-38 (3-0) for .493

Portland can be:
32-40 (0-3) for .432
33-39 (1-2) for .445
34-38 (2-1) for .459
35-37 (3-0) for .472

Suns can be:
31-41 (0-3) for .424
32-40 (1-2) for .436
33-39 (2-1) for .450
34-38 (3-0) for .464

Spurs can be:
30-41 (0-3) for .422
31-40 (1-2) for .436
32-39 (2-1) for .450
33-38 (3-0) for .464

Pelicans can be:
30-42 (0-3) for .416
31-41 (1-2) for .430
32-40 (2-1) for .444
33-39 (3-0) for .458

Kings can be:
29-43 (0-3) for .402
30-42 (1-2) for .416
31-41 (2-1) for .430
32-42 (3-0) for .444

So if my math is right IF:

If Portland goes 0-3, they end up at .432 winning %. To pass them, the Spurs would need to go 1-2, same with Phoenix. The Pelicans would need to go 2-1 and the Kings would need to go 3-0.

If Portland goes 1-2, the Spurs and Suns need to go 2-1 to pass them, and Pelicans need to go 3-0, and the Kings couldn't pass them.

If Portland goes 2-1, the Spurs and Suns need to go 3-0 to pass them and the Pelicans can't.

If Portland goes 3-0, no one can pass them.

To get the #8 seed outright (yay?), the Blazers need the Grizzlies to go 0-3 (.452) or 1-2 (.465), and the Blazers HAVE to go 2-1 (.459) and 3-0 (.472) respectfully.

It seems to me that the Grizzlies have the best chance at staying the #8 seed, because all of their opponents (Raptors, Celtics and Bucks) have zero motivation to win those games. They each could go 0-fer and their standing in the Eastern conference is not changed at all.

I just realized there are too many variables for my brain to comprehend...so in a nut shell, the Blazers need to win 2 games and hope for a Suns and Spurs loss. So root for the Pelicans tomorrow, and the *puke* Thunder on Monday and hope Portland can get their shit together against the 76ers tomorrow and the Nets, or hope the Mavs rest their entire team.
Click to expand...
Don't think your Portland numbers are right. We already have 39 losses. And I think some of your Suns percentages are wrong -- they too have 39 losses already. But your final conclusions are the same, we win all our games, we make the play in.
 
illmatic99 said:
Don't think your Portland numbers are right. We already have 39 losses. And I think some of your Suns percentages are wrong -- they too have 39 losses already. But your final conclusions are the same, we win all our games, we make the play in.
Click to expand...
yeah, think I did some transferring of #'s incorrectly...I'll finish up the post Im doing right now and re-calculate. Not sure how that happened other than my handwriting is small and bad.
 
julius said:
yeah, think I did some transferring of #'s incorrectly...I'll finish up the post Im doing right now and re-calculate. Not sure how that happened other than my handwriting is small and bad.
Click to expand...
check out @WesleyMatthews post a few pages back. he had all this calculated. good effort, tho.
 
julius said:
I hope this isn't already discussed. I did some crunching of #s, and I think it plays out like this.

Grizzlies can be:

33-40 (0-3) for .452
34-39 (1-2) for .465
35-38 (2-1) for .479
36-38 (3-0) for .493

Portland can be:
32-42 (0-3) for .432
33-41 (1-2) for .445
34-40 (2-1) for .459
35-3 (3-0) for .472

Suns can be:
31-42 (0-3) for .424
32-41 (1-2) for .438
33-40 (2-1) for .452
34-39 (3-0) for .465

Spurs can be:
30-41 (0-3) for .422
31-40 (1-2) for .436
32-39 (2-1) for .450
33-38 (3-0) for .464

Pelicans can be:
30-42 (0-3) for .416
31-41 (1-2) for .430
32-40 (2-1) for .444
33-39 (3-0) for .458

Kings can be:
29-43 (0-3) for .402
30-42 (1-2) for .416
31-41 (2-1) for .430
32-42 (3-0) for .444

So if my math is right IF:

If Portland goes 0-3, they end up at .432 winning %. To pass them, the Spurs would need to go 1-2, same with Phoenix. The Pelicans would need to go 2-1 and the Kings would need to go 3-0.

If Portland goes 1-2, the Spurs and Suns need to go 2-1 to pass them, and Pelicans need to go 3-0, and the Kings couldn't pass them.

If Portland goes 2-1, the Spurs and Suns need to go 3-0 to pass them and the Pelicans can't.

If Portland goes 3-0, no one can pass them.

To get the #8 seed outright (yay?), the Blazers need the Grizzlies to go 0-3 (.452) or 1-2 (.465), and the Blazers HAVE to go 2-1 (.459) and 3-0 (.472) respectfully.

It seems to me that the Grizzlies have the best chance at staying the #8 seed, because all of their opponents (Raptors, Celtics and Bucks) have zero motivation to win those games. They each could go 0-fer and their standing in the Eastern conference is not changed at all.

I just realized there are too many variables for my brain to comprehend...so in a nut shell, the Blazers need to win 2 games and hope for a Suns and Spurs loss. So root for the Pelicans tomorrow, and the *puke* Thunder on Monday and hope Portland can get their shit together against the 76ers tomorrow and the Nets, or hope the Mavs rest their entire team.
Click to expand...
Great post. Another thing to pay attention to is the Mavs still have a shot at the 6th seed and if that remains possible, they will do all they have to do to get it. IF Sixers want 5 seed (I'm not sure they d0), they have something to play for. And Nets may be playing to avoid Bucks in first round.

Oh wait. Your numbers aren't right for Blazers. We have 39 losses. Suns have 39 losses too. Recalculate.
 
Really love Toronto as a team. They just grind you down with the correct possession play after play.
 
B-Roy said:
Really love Toronto as a team. They just grind you down with the correct possession play after play.
Click to expand...

Agreed, this Nick Nurse character is quite the coach. I'd really hoped they'd come out today and put it on Memphis, after getting blown-out by Boston on Friday night. Need a T-Dot 'W' right here!
 
And Tolliver puts the game away for the Grizzlies. Thanks Tolli!
 
Good loss by Memphis. Now we need to finish our job tonight.

Go Blazers!
 
Wow, Redick takes two charges in a row. We really need a guy like that on our team.
 
The Pelicans are playing too well now; it's better if Spurs beat them, I think.
 
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