The race for Home Court Advantage (1 Viewer)

[Chris Craig]

And I remember you saying we were going to CRUSH them. Easy win, they were a garbage team.

They are a garbage team

 

[Boob-No-More]

Well, I would assume that MEM has the toughest. Followed by PHX, DAL, SAC, LAL, LAC, DEN...or some variation of that group - the suckier you are, the tougher your schedule?

Strength of Schedule is based on the quality of your opponents, not the quality of you. Otherwise, it would just be the standings in reverse order.

BNM

 

[Chris Craig]

Well, I would assume that MEM has the toughest. Followed by PHX, DAL, SAC, LAL, LAC, DEN...or some variation of that group - the suckier you are, the tougher your schedule?

not really...the sucker teams are already out of the playoffs, they have nothing to play for. no stress. easy street. If the win amazing. If they lose, oh well.

 

[blue9]

Strength of Schedule is based on the quality of your opponents, not the quality of you. Otherwise, it would just be the standings in reverse order.

BNM

I figured SoS was a combo of the team's "strength" vs their opponents "strength". Like, there's a much larger disparity between PHX and HOU than us and HOU, which I thought would be reflected. Eh - whatever. It matters not.

 

[Boob-No-More]

I figured SoS was a combo of the team's "strength" vs their opponents "strength". Like, there's a much larger disparity between PHX and HOU than us and HOU, which I thought would be reflected. Eh - whatever. It matters not.

No, strength of schedule is only based on how good your opponents are. So, strength of schedule for remaining games is an average of the strength of all your remaining opponents.

FiveThirtyEight also publishes game-by-game odds, as well as expected margin. This, I believe, is what you are looking for, and you can find it here:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-nba-predictions/games/

So, for example, tonight, BRK plays @TOR, and here's FiveThirtyEight's prediction:

Nets 7%

Raptors -15.5 93%

So, they predict TOR will have a 93% of beating the Nets and the expected margin of victory is 15.5 points.

BNM

 

[crandc]

Timberwolves beat Knicks

 

[Destroyer of Worlds]

You don’t believe back to backs and 4 games in 5 nights don’t take a toll? All that travel?

That’s not what I said. I said if that is the difference between us beating teams that are barely .500, I (as in, my opinion,) believe that the Blazers will not do very well in the playoffs.

 

[Destroyer of Worlds]

You think we are a “great or very good team?”

Once again, if you read the whole thing, I said... in my opinion, we aren’t very good or great if we go 6-6 heading into the playoffs, as suggested. No point in judging based on my opinion, because it doesn’t mean jackshit. That’s why I said I’ll wait to see what happens in the playoffs because my opinion isn’t changing the future. My opinion is, we look good right now, but if we finished the season 6-6, I wouldn’t be surprised by a first round loss.

 

[Destroyer of Worlds]

No, apparently the consistently observed tendency of role players to play more effectively at home, and the universally understood impact of travel weariness are not legitimate factors to be considered when projecting or evaluating games, but are nothing more than excuses voiced by the weak-minded.

Or so I'm told.

When you are that much better than the team you are playing, those factors are vastly mitigated.

If the Cavs ended the season vs Wizards, Pacers, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Orlando, Pacers... all road games, say they are back to backs, and went 3-3... do you honestly think Cavs fans wouldn’t be worried?

Fact is, they are the better team, and if they went 3-3, I doubt they’d be a threat in the playoffs.

 

[TBpup]

Blazers were by far the better team last night and from the tip, I didn't like the way they were playing and was worried the Celtic game could be a loss. Still figured they would pull it out in the end. They beat us without their Dame, CJ, Turner and Harkles.....WOW!

 

[blue9]

They beat us without their Dame, CJ, Turner and Harkles.....WOW!

Coaching matters.

 

[tykendo]

You know what OKC, Nawlins, SA, Houston, Denver, and Utah all have in common? They all face the unsavory task of playing the Trailblazers. Go Get'em Blazers.

 

[KingSpeed]

Blazers were by far the better team last night and from the tip, I didn't like the way they were playing and was worried the Celtic game could be a loss. Still figured they would pull it out in the end. They beat us without their Dame, CJ, Turner and Harkles.....WOW!

They don't have a Dame, CJ, Turner, or Harkless.

 

[TBpup]

The Blazers need to at least split the first tow games on this road trip or things are going to get awfully tight around the collar. They should go 4-0 in the games after that but they are going to need some space in the standings because after that, there are probably two more losses in the final 4 games.

6-4 should get them the #3 spot which is what I want but that is leaving the door open for someone else.

 

[TBpup]

HUGE win for the Blazers after giving away one to Boston. Beating the Thunder and combined with the Spurs losing, this was a good night for Blazer fans in the standings.

GO BLAZERS!!!!!!!!!!

 

[KingSpeed]

HUGE win for the Blazers after giving away one to Boston. Beating the Thunder and combined with the Spurs losing, this was a good night for Blazer fans in the standings.

GO BLAZERS!!!!!!!!!!

YES YES YES, MAN

 

[BonesJones]

So we would have the tiebreaker with New Orleans even with a loss, as the division leader gets the tiebreaker, even over head-to-head record.

However, we beat New Orleans, we'd be tied head to head, which is the 2nd tiebreaker, and we'd hold the 3rd tiebreaker removing benefit of the doubt (3rd tiebreaker for teams that aren't in the same division is conference record).

If we could beat them, we'd be 4 ahead of them in the loss column. Even if they WON OUT, if we finished 4-4 afterwards, we'd still beat them out for the 3 seed.

We beat NOP on Tuesday, and I see no way that they or OKC can pass us for the 3 seed. I am slightly worried about SAS and MIN. SAS probably has the most realistic chance, but MIN has a very easy schedule down the stretch and right now, would win the tiebreaker with us (division record).

 

[BonesJones]

If we could've beaten Boston, It would've meant tonight would've all but locked up the 3 seed. Too bad.

 

[KingSpeed]

If we could've beaten Boston, It would've meant tonight would've all but locked up the 3 seed. Too bad.

Gotta move on. We got this. Like you said, win tomorrow and we're pretty much good.

 

[BonesJones]

Gotta move on. We got this. Like you said, win tomorrow and we're pretty much good.

Just wish we could clinch it early. I don't think it'll happen. Need to go 4-1 in the next 5 games because the last 4 are tough, and we could definitely fall 1-3. We need 50 wins for the 3 Seed.

 

[TBpup]

Blazers - - 45-28 next @ Pelicans
Thunder - 44-31 next @ Spurs
Pelicans - 43-31 next vs Blazers
SA Spurs - 43-31 next @Wizards
TWolves - 42-32 next vs Grizzlies
Utah Jazz- 41-32 now @ Warriors

A win @ the Pels would go a long ways towards helping to lock up that #3 spot with tie-breakers. If they could do that with a game or so left and get the starters some rest or at least short minutes would be huge.

 

[TBpup]

Jazz destroying the Warriors who basically sat or without all of their 4 main starters for tonight's game.

 

[TBpup]

Warriors have lost so many games that by the time the Blazers play the Rockets, they may not need to win to keep the #1 seed.

 

[Pinwheel1]

Warriors have lost so many games that by the time the Blazers play the Rockets, they may not need to win to keep the #1 seed.

Yeah they won't need to. They are already up 5 games now in the loss column. But my guess is they play hard against us and OKC at home , then take it easy in their last 2 games of the season which are on the road against the lakers and Sac. (back to back)

 

[Sarni]

We've got the 3rd seed I think. Being 3 games better in the loss column with just 9 to go is enough of a cushion to get us over the line. We also have a few easy games coming up after Pelicans, teams below us are all going to still lose a few games so realistically nobody that is below us will finish with less than 33 losses. We won't lose 5 more games from here.

 

[Chris Craig]

This how I think the season ends

Blazers 5-4 rest of Season for 50-32 3rd place

Twolves 6-2 rest of season for 48-34 4th

Pelicans 5-2 rest of season for 48-34 5th

Jazz 6-2 rest of season for 48-34 6th

OKC 4-3 rest of season for 48-34 7th

Spurs 4-4 rest of season for 47-35 8th


So 1st rnd playoffs:

1.) Rockets
8.) Spurs

2.) Warriors
7.) OKC

3.) Blazers
6.) Jazz

4.) Twolves
5.) Pelicans

 

[Sarni]

This how I think the season ends

Blazers 5-3 rest of Season for 50-32 3rd place

Twolves 6-2 rest of season for 48-34 4th

Pelicans 5-2 rest of season for 48-34 5th

Jazz 6-2 rest of season for 48-34 6th

OKC 4-3 rest of season for 48-34 7th

Spurs 4-4 rest of season for 47-35 8th


So 1st rnd playoffs:

1.) Rockets
8.) Spurs

2.) Warriors
7.) OKC

3.) Blazers
6.) Jazz

4.) Twolves
5.) Pelicans

I hate this. If it works out this way I want us to drop a couple of games on purpose to play Pelicans instead of Jazz.

 

[H.C.]

This how I think the season ends

Blazers 5-3 rest of Season for 50-32 3rd place
Twolves 6-2 rest of season for 48-34 4th
Pelicans 5-2 rest of season for 48-34 5th
Jazz 6-2 rest of season for 48-34 6th
OKC 4-3 rest of season for 48-34 7th
Spurs 4-4 rest of season for 47-35 8th


So 1st rnd playoffs:

1.) Rockets
8.) Spurs

2.) Warriors
7.) OKC

3.) Blazers
6.) Jazz

4.) Twolves
5.) Pelicans

Portland has 9 games left btw. You're record is right, but 5-3 isn't.

I have Portland closing 6-3
51-31, 3rd seed.
I have OKC closing 5-2
49-33, 4th/5th/6th
I have Jazz closing 7-1
49-33, 4th/5th/6th
I have Spurs closing 6-2
49-33, 4th/5th/6th
I have Pelicans closing 4-4
47-35
I have Minn closing 3-5
45-37

I don't know the tiebreakers between the three tied teams. Nor do I really want to look them up.

 

[Sarni]

Just wish we could clinch it early. I don't think it'll happen. Need to go 4-1 in the next 5 games because the last 4 are tough, and we could definitely fall 1-3. We need 50 wins for the 3 Seed.

We don't need 50 wins for 3rd seed. 49 is going to be enough, maybe even 48 with a bit of luck.

The best anyone below us can do is 51. Few of those teams will even go above 48, let alone reach 50.

 

[BonesJones]

We don't need 50 wins for 3rd seed. 49 is going to be enough, maybe even 48 with a bit of luck.

The best anyone below us can do is 51. Few of those teams will even go above 48, let alone reach 50.

I bet someone else gets at least 49