The subtle brilliance of Portland (and PISS)

[B-Roy]

http://www.basketballanalyticsbook.com/2016/02/25/the-subtle-brilliance-of-portland/

Awesome write up,

Previously, we introduced “painfully ill-advised shots” (PIS). These are contested pull-up mid-range jump shots that are taken with at least 5 seconds on the shot clock. These are not good shots, and it’s hard to justify a team or player’s choice to ever take a PIS.
We let PIS selection or PISS be the player or team’s percentage of shots taken with at least 5 seconds on the shot clock that are PIS. So, if a player had a PISS of 10%, 1 in 10 of that player’s shots with at least 5 seconds on the shot clock were PIS.
It turns out that some defenses induce more PISS than others.

How does a team induce PISS? Is it personnel dependent?
Inducing PISS is less about the perimeter defender’s ability and more about the team’s system and the interior defenders. In 2015, the top two in opponent PISS were Steve Blake (27.8%) and Damian Lillard (27.0%). Both played for Portland. Two of the next three in opponent PISS played for Chicago (Aaron Brooks and Derrick Rose). Two other Chicago guards, Tony Snell and Kirk Hinrich, were in the top 20. (Tom Thibodeau was the NBA’s catheter.) San Antonio’s two point guards Tony Parker and Cory Joseph were 7th and 8th with nearly identical opponent PISS. (In 2014, Parker and Patty Mills were both in the top 5.)
Meanwhile, certain guards that changed teams saw significant changes in their opponent PISS. For example, Mo Williams went from a PISS of 19.2% in Portland in 2014 to 14.8% last season with Charlotte and Minnesota. Steve Blake saw a drop from 27.8% in Portland in 2014 to 16.9% last season with the Warriors and Lakers.

I thought this was really interesting. A lot of the Dame is a bad defender talk can be explained by Portland's schemes. This is what a lot of us have been saying for a long time and now we have evidence that it is not only by design, but that it is also a good design?!

Warning: There is a lot if PISSing involved.

 

[BBert]

It has been my non-statistically supported observation that Gerald Henderson takes a lot of PISSes, and more and harder PISSes per minute than any other Blazer, many of which are just inside the three point line (aka: the worst shot in basketball). Like he thinks he's Kobe or something.

What say yea?

 

[BBert]

And speaking of No Mo, that was one of the reasons I couldn't stand his play.

And I'm not bagging on Henderson. I'll take Gerald, his size, his athleticm, and his somewhat streaky shooting over No Mo every day.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

It has been my non-statistically supported observation that Gerald Henderson takes a lot of PISSes, and more and harder PISSes per minute than any other Blazer, many of which are just inside the three point line (aka: the worst shot in basketball). Like he thinks he's Kobe or something.

What say yea?

True. But I'd also say that aside from CJ, he's easily the best and most effective PISSer on the team, even ahead of Dame.

 

[B-Roy]

True. But I'd also say that aside from CJ, he's easily the best and most effective PISSer on the team, even ahead of Dame.

Dame is not a good PISSer though. He takes them out of necessity when the offense breaks down.

 

[B-Roy]

I was also looking at their explanation for PISS-ing and check out the graph. Our very own Gerald Henderson is one of the biggest PISSers in the league. Our own 2014 No Mo is on there as well (Hey BBert!).

Also, look at 2015 Udrih, 28% of his shoots were PISS but he hit 50% of them! With Portland allowing one of the largest % of PISS shots in the league it's no wonder Beno was an absolute Blazer killer!

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Dame is not a good PISSer though. He takes them out of necessity when the offense breaks down.

Exactly. I worded my response as I did simply because it's often unpopular to not put Dame at the top of any shooting/scoring list of this team, but Dame is a terrible PISSer. His PISSes piss me off, often.

 

[BBert]

True. But I'd also say that aside from CJ, he's easily the best and most effective PISSer on the team, even ahead of Dame.

When you can PISS for both distance and accuracy like they can, I guess you go with it.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

When you can PISS for both distance and accuracy like they can, I guess you go with it.

Hey, if you have the tools to PISS effectively, why not use them, right?

 

[B-Roy]

When you can PISS for both distance and accuracy like they can, I guess you go with it.

Once it goes past the three point line, it doesn't become a PISS-sy shot anymore, so keep tossing them up from 40 Dame!

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Exactly. I worded my response as I did simply because it's often unpopular to not put Dame at the top of any shooting/scoring list of this team, but Dame is a terrible PISSer. His PISSes piss me off, often.

Remember that a PIS is a shot that is (a) contested and (b) with more than 5 seconds left on the clock. When he shoots quick, it's often with space, and when he shoots with coverage it's usually late in the clock. So I don't know if he's actually a PISSer per se.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Remember that a PIS is a shot that is (a) contested and (b) with more than 5 seconds left on the clock. When he shoots quick, it's often with space, and when he shoots with coverage it's usually late in the clock. So I don't know if he's actually a PISSer per se.

Damn you. Good point.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Damn you. Good point.

Now, let's talk about Al Farouq "Fast Break Doesn't Have To Mean Broken, Dammit" Aminu...

 

[riverman]

We just need more piss3s

 

[B-Roy]

They are more like piss2s.

 

[rasheedfan2005]

i'm kind of pissed after reading this thread

 

[BBert]

We just need more piss3s

Hahaha.

I would argue we need fewer

 

[jlprk]

If you're going to shoot a PIS, extend your range and shoot a long one.

 

[B-Roy]

If you're going to shoot a PIS, extend your range and shoot a long one.

LaMarcus says

"Well you know, that's just like, you know, your opinion, you know...."

 

[Wizard Mentor]

This season, Aminu is averaging 10 points per game and he’s doing so with an eFG% that’s better than Isaiah Thomas, DeMarcus Cousins, John Wall, and Carmelo Anthony. That’s not to say he’s a better offensive player than these others. Instead, it says that Portland has found a way to optimize his offensive contributions.

 

[BrianFromWA]

how is PISS even a statistic if they don't bring up Tex's contribution in the PISS category? Without looking at stats, in this particular case (as "contested" and "outside 5 seconds" are not variables I've used before in this context), I would think that, after K*be, Tex is the Poster Child for PISS-poor shooting decisions and results.