The super Melo to Portland thread + The Big Blockbuster

[BonesJones]

Curry is such a freak though.... he is significantly more efficient than Dame in terms of shooting. For everything that I love about Lillard, he's nowhere near the shooting percentages that Curry has put up. His numbers dipped a bit last season, but in 2015-2016 he shot over 50% from the floor and over 45% from three, while averaging 30 ppg. That's just insane. Dame is gonna have to really step up his efficiency if he hopes to match Curry.

Another reason why your comparison makes no sense.

 

[BonesJones]

We won't. At best you can hope Nurkic develops into one or that Collins becomes one. Barring that, you start thinking about what takes to compete in a few years and structure your roster, contracts and assets to take advantage of the eventual Golden State decline.

Which is why, if PA is willing to pay a shit ton of tax to get an all-star in the draft, I'd support it.

 

[Destroyer of Worlds]

How the fuck do we blow up the team? Jeez dude. I made a suggestion 4 days ago involving a 4 for 2 and you changed it to a 6 for 1 and made shit up. You're yet another homer that overvalues what we have.. I'm not even gonna participate with you rook. Bye now.

That is most certainly not what happened. You started with a very lop-sided trade in which we had way more going out than coming in, then you said you wanted to clear cap space on top of that by attaching draft picks, so you could make room for Jeremy Lin, Booker and a free agent to be named later (whom I told you to come up free agents.)

In the end, I believe your end goal was to trade

Meyers/Crabbe/V0nleh/Turner/Future 1st/Aminu and Davis for

Cap space (which you believed would be James Johnson, which I said its more likely we would get someone like Tucker, who took a discount to play with OKC), Lin and Booker.

That's just from my memory though, you're welcome to check the stats, rook.

 

[dviss1]

@Natebishop3 You have a huge amount of basketball knowledge, experience, and wisdom, and outside a few wacky trade proposals, you're usually spot on. But here, you're just wrong, and you should change your tune. Trading CJ or Dame would be a historic mistake. Why? Lamarcus Aldridge, Paul George, and especially Gordon Hayward for starters...

There are 3 mechanisms to improve your team: draft, trades, and free agency. For the most part, 2nd tier small market teams are shut out of big time free agency. Many here have criticized Neil when they have no clue of what has actually happened, but even I admit that overpaying ET was his greatest mistake. So, even though we attempted to get into Free Agency, it was a mistake. Thus, for us and other teams, there's only 2 avenues to improvement: draft and trades. Building through the draft, especially under the current CBA, is not only appropriate, but essential for us and other small market teams. Sprinkle in a few good trades and some patience, and if you're a bit lucky, you can contend.

HOWEVER, this whole line of team building is dependent on your best players not leaving. When LMA left, it fucked our whole plan. With Gordon Hayward leaving, the jazz team that they've been patiently building is screwed - years of work somewhat down the drain (though they may be able to mitigate their problems if they can agree to a sign-and-trade). So, if you're going to be building through the draft, you REALLY, REALLY, REALLY want your star players to commit to the organization. Dame has committed - even to the point of forgoing a player option in the last year of his contract for zero benefit to himself. CJ has just written an article professing his love for Portland on the Player's Tribune. Trading either of these players for a player, NO MATTER HOW GOOD, who might leave would be foolish.

Dame and CJ were on ESPN's "2nd West all-star team." They're both VERY good, but yes, they have their warts. They're not perfect, but they're OURS. We need to get complementary pieces. We filled our gaping hole with Nurkic. We just need to keep improving our team, but not by trading CJ or Dame.

@Wizard Mentor You have a huge amount of basketball knowledge, experience, and wisdom, and outside a few wacky trade proposals, you're usually spot on. But here, you're just wrong, and you should change your tune.

Overpaying ET was not his greatest mistake. Re-signing Butters was.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Which is why, if PA is willing to pay a shit ton of tax to get an all-star in the draft, I'd support it.

I've yet to see a guy make an all-star team before getting drafted.

 

[PCmor7]

There's middle ground to this debate: You only trade C.J. if you are getting a similar star talent back at a position that better balances the Blazers.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Well there you go..... but why hang your hat on being pioneers?

Because it's probably our best bet at competing for a title.

How many titles do you think GSW would have right now if they hadn't been pioneers? When Mark Jackson was coaching them, he was forcing Steph Curry to play as a traditional PG. Forcing him to be both the #1 option on offense and the #1 distributor was wearing him down. He was using Draymond Green as a traditional, undersized, back up 4, averaging just 1.9 APG. They were a 51-win first round exit team.

Along comes Steve Kerr, he moves Curry off the ball and starts running the offense through a 6'7" PF/small ball center. With the same roster, they jump to 68 wins and an NBA championship. Prior to that no one had ever won a championship with their PF leading the team in assists. They were pioneers.

If the current paradigm isn't working for you, change the paradigm. Just because no one else has done it doesn't mean you can't.

Dame and C.J. are the best thing to happen to this franchise since the 3rd quarter of the 2000 WCF. They are both very talented, intelligent, hard working and want to be here. Are they perfect? No, but few players are and the one's that are aren't walking through that door. Build a roster around them that compliments their strengths and compensates for their weaknesses. Nurk was a GREAT first step. The team plays so much better at both ends with him on the floor. He could be our Draymond - not the same type of player, but the type that makes it so much easier for the rest of our players to excel at what they do best - the way Draymond allows Curry to play off the ball and just do what he does best. Steph Curry would have never won a scoring title an MVP or a championship with Mark Jackson's traditional system in place.

If Zach Collins can become an above average 2-way player at the 4, that's the next step. Then we need to get an above average SF. Doesn't need to be a superstar, but someone who keeps the opposing defense honest and plays above average defense. With Nurk, we potentially have our Big 3. It's not the same as anyone else's Big 3, but we also don't have a LeBron James or Kevin Durant to build around. Trying to replicate those teams success/systems is wasted effort. Don't be an inferior copy of something else, be the best you you can be.

Long live the pioneers!

BNM

 

[BBert]

Sounds like the deals going down.

Link?

 

[BonesJones]

That is most certainly not what happened. You started with a very lop-sided trade in which we had way more going out than coming in, then you said you wanted to clear cap space on top of that by attaching draft picks, so you could make room for Jeremy Lin, Booker and a free agent to be named later (whom I told you to come up free agents.)

In the end, I believe your end goal was to trade

Meyers/Crabbe/V0nleh/Turner/Future 1st/Aminu and Davis for

Cap space (which you believed would be James Johnson, which I said its more likely we would get someone like Tucker, who took a discount to play with OKC), Lin and Booker.

That's just from my memory though, you're welcome to check the stats, rook.

I suggested trading Meyers, Aminu, Turner, Vonleh and a future 1st for Lin and Booker. Nowhere did I include Davis or Crabbe. That's what I'm saying, you're making shit up. We have too many rotation players as is, and trading 3 rotation players for 2 isn't lopsided and doesn't DESTROY the team (you sure do love the word destroy).

I also brought up the type of players that it would be nice to try and Sign and Trade for (which is only possible if we're under the Luxery Tax) or guys we could've pursued with a full MLE (that we get if were under the luxery tax. I was also talking about the type of players we could go after with the cap space we would recieve next summer.

Your memory fails you, and I tried pointing this out at the time and you didn't reply, just too come back with the same BS.

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

I guess I really like the idea of CJ and Lillard playing out their careers together. The one thing that could help them the most to be successful would be to replace Crabbe with a two way guard who is tremendous defensively. It's really sad that we couldn't have got Avery Bradley somehow. It seems that someone like him could play with either CJ or Lillard 30 minutes a game and help cover up for their defensive deficiencies..

 

[BonesJones]

I've yet to see a guy make an all-star team before getting drafted.

You know what I'm saying, but fine, I'll add "a realistic chance at an All-Star" from now on to help with context.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

@Wizard Mentor You have a huge amount of basketball knowledge, experience, and wisdom, and outside a few wacky trade proposals, you're usually spot on. But here, you're just wrong, and you should change your tune.

Overpaying ET was not his greatest mistake. Re-signing Butters was.

LOL

 

[BonesJones]

LOL

LMAO

 

[Boob-No-More]

I guess I really like the idea of CJ and Lillard playing out their careers together. The one thing that could help them the most to be successful would be to replace Crabbe with a two way guard who is tremendous defensively. It's really sad that we couldn't have got Avery Bradley somehow. It seems that someone like him could play with either CJ or Lillard 30 minutes a game and help cover up for their defensive deficiencies..

Yep, plus they both seem to like and respect the guy. That would have been a great 3-guard line up.

Again, don't blow up the Dame and C.J. combo, surround them with players that compliment their strengths and compensate for their deficiencies (Exhibit A: Jusuf Nurkic). Those guys don't grow on trees, but they are still a lot easier to obtain than an all star or superstar.

BNM

 

[dviss1]

We have a shit ton of guards. Someone like Paul George would have been perfect. There is a lot of balance to a Dame/George/Nurk franchise. Unfortunately that didn't work out, and I wouldn't have offered CJ anyway under the current circumstances.

Sending out CJ for PG with no guarantee of an extension, is a fools errand.

 

[Natebishop3]

Sending out CJ for PG with no guarantee of an extension, is a fools errand.

Which is why I specifically said I wouldn't have done it under the current circumstances.

 

[KeepOnRollin]

Which is why, if PA is willing to pay a shit ton of tax to get an all-star in the draft, I'd support it.

I am at work and don't have time unfortunately but I would love to see someone take every single top 5 pick in the last 15 or so years and then tell me what percentage of them ever went to even 1 all star game. My guess would be around 30-40%. So 60-70% shot you don't get one (in this hypothetical scenario). I would love to be wrong though since it is just a guess.

 

[BBert]

So are we getting Ryan Anderson or is this trade cooling? I wish I could see Neil phone screen.

According to the previous two pages of this thread, what we need is defense. I concur. So no. I hope.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

I am at work and don't have time unfortunately but I would love to see someone take every single top 5 pick in the last 15 or so years and then tell me what percentage of them ever went to even 1 all star game. My guess would be around 30-40%. So 60-70% shot you don't get one (in this hypothetical scenario). I would love to be wrong though since it is just a guess.

Another interesting question: how many top 5 picks re-sign with the team that drafted them?

 

[BigGameDamian]

 

[42N8Bounce]

You know what I'm saying, but fine, I'll add "a realistic chance at an All-Star" from now on to help with context.

The draft is exciting, with a lot of hope and optimism for the new guys. But in reality, it's a lot more difficult to get an All-Star than most think.

Here are the percentages from the 1990 thru 2010 drafts:

Unless you have that #1 pick (or #3), you have less than 50% chance of grabbing an all-star. If you draft after #3, your odds get pretty slim very quickly.

 

[Hobbesarable]

I guess I really like the idea of CJ and Lillard playing out their careers together. The one thing that could help them the most to be successful would be to replace Crabbe with a two way guard who is tremendous defensively. It's really sad that we couldn't have got Avery Bradley somehow. It seems that someone like him could play with either CJ or Lillard 30 minutes a game and help cover up for their defensive deficiencies..

I agree. Earlier today I mentioned a 3-guard rotation consisting of Dame, CJ, and a defensive guard. I wanted our team to draft a defensive guard like Donovan Mitchell so he could play extensive minutes with Dame and/or CJ depending upon match-ups and in-game adjustments.

 

[KeepOnRollin]

The draft is exciting, with a lot of hope and optimism for the new guys. But in reality, it's a lot more difficult to get an All-Star than most think.

Here are the percentages from the 1990 thru 2010 drafts:
View attachment 15056
Unless you have that #1 pick (or #3), you have less than 50% chance of grabbing an all-star. If you draft after #3, your odds get pretty slim very quickly.

So my 40% guess wasn't too bad. 30% was too low though. Now @Wizard Mentor question comes into play. How many of those starts in the All Star game were with another team then the one that drafted the player? Because if a percentage over 50 was the case then that doesn't help the top 5 team much either.

 

[Natebishop3]

I don't think we're gonna have an All-Star for a while unless we win some games.

 

[RR7]

I am at work and don't have time unfortunately but I would love to see someone take every single top 5 pick in the last 15 or so years and then tell me what percentage of them ever went to even 1 all star game. My guess would be around 30-40%. So 60-70% shot you don't get one (in this hypothetical scenario). I would love to be wrong though since it is just a guess.

2002: 1 of 5
2003: 4 of 5
2004: 2 of 5
2005: 2 of 5
2006: 1 of 5
2007: 2 of 5
2008: 3 of 5
2009: 2 of 5
2010: 2 of 5
2011: 1 of 5
2012: 1 of 5
2013: 0 of 5
2014: 0 of 5
2015: 0 of 5
2016: 0 of 5

I'll drop off the last 4 years, it's a 38% all star rate.

 

[riverman]

We won't. At best you can hope Nurkic develops into one or that Collins becomes one. Barring that, you start thinking about what takes to compete in a few years and structure your roster, contracts and assets to take advantage of the eventual Golden State decline.

and in the mean time you play them tough and contribute to their decline with depth and young legs

 

[riverman]

I don't think we're gonna have an All-Star for a while unless we win some games.

So you don't think David Lee or Jeremy Lin will sign here?

 

[Destroyer of Worlds]

I suggested trading Meyers, Aminu, Turner, Vonleh and a future 1st for Lin and Booker. Nowhere did I include Davis or Crabbe. That's what I'm saying, you're making shit up. We have too many rotation players as is, and trading 3 rotation players for 2 isn't lopsided and doesn't DESTROY the team (you sure do love the word destroy).

I also brought up the type of players that it would be nice to try and Sign and Trade for (which is only possible if we're under the Luxery Tax) or guys we could've pursued with a full MLE (that we get if were under the luxery tax. I was also talking about the type of players we could go after with the cap space we would recieve next summer.

Your memory fails you, and I tried pointing this out at the time and you didn't reply, just too come back with the same BS.

I stopped responding because you have an aggressive tone with everyone you interact with that doesn't share your opinion or you try and e-bully them. I noticed a couple others point it out, which is why I left no comment at all.


Still, you trade 4 players and a pick for 2 players. We then have very little maneuverability in regards to accumulating more talent, as we would still be in a disadvantageous position in regards to the cap. That is when you stated trade more players to get a free agent. I asked who, you gave examples...

I said it destroys the team because Evan Turner specifically is integral to this team moving forward and you're changing a lot of rotations. Having someone like him who could play with Dame/CJ collapse the defense and kick to them, Collins, or Nurk is a massive advantage. He can also play 3 positions and can play alongside both of them, one of them or neither of them.

Not interested in this conversation with you though - have a good one.

 

[riverman]

2002: 1 of 5
2003: 4 of 5
2004: 2 of 5
2005: 2 of 5
2006: 1 of 5
2007: 2 of 5
2008: 3 of 5
2009: 2 of 5
2010: 2 of 5
2011: 1 of 5
2012: 1 of 5
2013: 0 of 5
2014: 0 of 5
2015: 0 of 5
2016: 0 of 5

I'll drop off the last 4 years, it's a 38% all star rate.

Shows how brutal the west is...half of the Warriors roster is guaranteed an allstar slot and the other half will be the Rockets

 

[BlayZa]

TBH this thread has been great.

There's been a great mix of quality analysis, shit talking, and history discussion/debate/correction.

When we click, we really click.

Good work everyone.