It really is a classic staring contest. Melo wants out and NYK want him gone. Who blinks first?
Melo has the most leverage, but the Knicks would rather keep him for another year and let him walk for nothing than take back HOU's crap.
HOU has zero leverage. Morey blew his wad in the CP3 trade and is finding out the hard way that acquiring two disgruntled stars in the same off season is a lot harder than it looks, even when those stars specifically want to play for you and nobody else but you.
Trading for a disgruntled star usually guts a team of tradeable assets and kills your depth. You lose valuable role players, young players on cheap rookie contracts and future draft picks. The Rockets gave up all three to land CP3. After that trade, their cupboard was bare. What they have left, no one wants.
Morey swings for the fences and treats his non-star players as currency - disposable income. He did the same thing three summers ago when he gutted his roster to clear cap space to offer Chris Bosh a max contract. At that time, the top teams in the West were stacked at PF. The Spurs had Duncan, the Mavs had Dirk, MEM had ZBo, POR had Aldridge (who had just DESTROYED the Rockets in their first round series), LAC had Blake. Hell, even MIN had Kevin Love. Morey went all in that Bosh was the missing piece that would get them over the hump.
At the time, I was giddy that Bosh spurned the Rockets and re-signed with MIA. In the end, Bosh's decision saved Morey from himself. Morey simply used the cap space he had cleared to offer Bosh a max deal to restock his roster. In hindsight, due to Bosh's health problems, had he actually accepted that max contract from HOU, the Rockets would have been fucked. They would have gutted their roster for a star player who couldn't play and not had the cap space or tradeable assets to restock.
This summer Morey went all in to land CP3, and now he has nothing, and I mean nothing, of any value to offer to land Carmelo Anthony. Melo is trying to force NYK's hand, but why would they take on assets that have negative value just to grant his wish to play with his buddies in HOU? It makes no sense for a rebuilding team to take on 29-year old, often injured Ryan Anderson's contract and the other players HOU could possibly offer (Eric Gordon and Tevor Ariza) do not make sense for a rebuilding team.
Getting a 3rd or 4th team involved doesn't seem to solve the roadblock of HOU having nothing of value to offer in a trade. Any other rebuilding team will have the same objections as the Knicks. Any contending team, that might value Ariza or Gordon isn't going to want to do the Rockets any favors - plus they would also need to give up assets the Knicks would want. POR, with Harkless, who is a relatively young player the Knicks covet, other young players, their own future picks and big contracts to match salaries is the most logistically practical 3rd party, but helping out a conference rival for the "honor" of taking on Ryan Anderson's toxic contract never made sense from POR.
So, it will be interesting to see how this Melo Drama 2.0 plays out. The last time Melo was traded, the drama continued to swirl right up to the trade deadline, and there wasn't even a no trade clause involved. I don't think it will last that long this time, but you never know. I think Melo blinks and eventually expands his list of acceptable destinations. It may, or may not, include POR, but most likely will include CLE, OKC, POR and possibly SAS.
Recent events have tipped the scales in POR's favor - and I don't just mean C.J. playing pick up with Melo. Kyrie's trade demand weakens CLE's appeal. Melo was willing to waive his trade clause to go to CLE when he thought he was going to be part of a Big 3 consisting of him, LeBron and Kyrie. The Knicks would LOVE to get a young star like Kyrie in change for the disgruntled Anthony, but losing Kyrie would be a big deterrent to Carmelo waiving his NTC to go to CLE.
I think trading Crabbe to BRK may have been a calculated move give POR a leg up on landing Carmelo, should he be willing to accept POR as a destination. First, it obviously cleared a ton of dough off our payroll, which lessens the luxury tax implications of absorbing Melo's contract. We would still be paying a ton of luxury tax, but less than the shit ton had we kept Crabbe and landed Antony. After signing Tim Hardaway Jr. to a massive offer sheet, including Crabbe in a package to the Knicks, made no sense.
Moving Crabbe to BRK for Andrew Nicholson and a $12.9 million TPE also ate up BRK's cap space and removed them as a possible 3rd party in any Melo to HOU scenario. The Nets taking on Ryan Anderson's contract never made much sense, but it's the Nets, so you never know. Sean Marks inherited a team that had pissed away all of their own future 1st round picks and has shown he's willing to take back other teams' shit contracts if they come bundled with a pick. Had he been able to pry future picks from HOU and NYK, BRK could have possibly been that 3rd team, HOU is desperately seeking. But, by eating up BRK's cap space in the Crabbe trade, Neil Olshey bent Daryl Morey over and said fuck you if you if you think you're getting anyone to help you in your quest for the third piece of your Big 3.
So, Melo to POR is still a bit of a long shot, but much more likely now than it was a month ago. If Melo does end up in POR, Neil and C.J. deserve to share the credit, but Crabbe (for waiving his trade kicker) and Kyrie (for wanting out of CLE) also get hockey assists.
BNM