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This was just posted on ESPN insider.
Five players to avoid trading for
Josh Smith among those to pass on at the NBA trade deadline
NBA trade season is finally here.
Memphis and Cleveland officially got things rolling this week with the first deal of 2013, and you can count on plenty of more trade rumors to surface in the weeks ahead as we approach the league's Feb. 21 trade deadline.
Just remember, there are many layers to every trade that go well beyond a player's value on the court today.
In many cases, it's the other factors that weigh more heavily: the contracts involved, salary cap and luxury tax implications, depth chart changes, team chemistry, winning now versus winning later. The list goes on and on.
Considering all of the factors above, here is a look at five players whom teams should avoid on the trade market this season.
Josh Smith | PF | Atlanta Hawks
As fun as it is to watch the high-flying lefty play the game, and as much as he could provide a big lift to a contender in need of an athletic power forward who can score and defend, the 27-year-old brings a big element of risk for a number of reasons. Smith's at an age where he should be in the prime of his career, yet his scoring and rebounding numbers are down this season and his player efficiency rating has plummeted almost four points to 17.35. That's alarming. Throw in the fact that he'll be an unrestricted free agent this summer, and you can see why trading for him would be a huge gamble.
Smith
ESPN Insider Kevin Pelton pointed out last week that "whoever deals for Smith should have the upper hand in re-signing him because they can offer an additional year and larger raises on his next contract," which make sense, but that team will probably also have to include some promising players to get him -- without any guarantee that he'll be more than a three-month rental. On top of that, Smith told the Atlanta Journal Constitution on Friday that he "sees himself as a max player," which begs the question whether any team can actually win it all in the age of LeBron James and Kevin Durant with Smith as its No. 1 option. Any team that trades for him probably has to look at him through that prism.
Courtney Lee | SG | Boston Celtics
Lee has become redundant in Boston with the return of Avery Bradley, a younger and much more affordable shooting guard who has quickly established himself as one of the league's top on-ball defenders. As such, Lee's name is one that often comes up in trade rumors regarding the Celtics.
Lee
Unless he's simply a smaller part of a big package that lands Boston a big-name player, though, it's difficult to see what other teams would see in Lee based on how he's performed this season. His 11.87 PER is the lowest it has been since his rookie season, he's turning the ball over at the highest rate of his career (11.4 percent of his possessions) and his scoring (12.8 points per 40 minutes) has never been lower. At age 27, these are scary trends that could conceivably lead to Lee becoming a deeper reserve in the years ahead, whether in Boston or elsewhere. Considering that he's guaranteed more than $5 million for three more seasons after 2012-13, teams would be wise to demand other options from Boston in trade talks.
Andrea Bargnani | PF | Toronto Raptors
Toronto would love to unload the two years and $23 million owed to Bargnani beyond this season -- and it has a number of strong frontcourt options in Amir Johnson and Ed Davis to fill his void -- but finding a taker could prove to be difficult. It will take a team with a lot of cap space in the years ahead and one that also covets a big man who can stretch the floor. Might it be time to revisit the Bargnani and Jose Calderon for Pau Gasol trade rumor?
Bargnani
The No. 1 overall pick in 2006 has the rare skill set of a 7-footer who hits 3s consistently, but it's increasingly difficult to overlook his deficiencies as a defender and rebounder. He is averaging just 5.8 rebounds per 36 minutes over the course of his career, a number that had sunk to a career-worst 4.8 in the 21 games he played prior to his injury this season. Making matters worse is that the Raptors have played considerably better without Bargnani (12-11) this season than with him (4-17), and it really isn't even close. He's due to come back from his elbow injury in the near future, but it's safe to say his trade value has never been lower.
Tayshaun Prince | SF | Detroit Pistons
Prince has long been considered one of the league's top "glue guys," and his name is sure to come up as a possibility for contending teams looking to add a savvy wing defender. Teams such as Milwaukee, Golden State, Utah and maybe even Houston all fit that description.
Prince
The problem is that Prince is still playing big minutes (32.5 per game) in his 11th season in the league and will turn 33 next month. That isn't to say he's washed up. In fact, thanks in large part to Prince, Pistons small forwards have a PER 1.8 points higher than their opponents this season, according to 82games.com. The problem is that Prince is guaranteed $7.23 million next season and $7.70 million in 2014-15 (when he turns 35), which is a lot of money to be wrapped up in a veteran who has logged a ton of minutes in his career and has seen his scoring (11.9 PPG) dip to its lowest point since the 2003-04 season.
Tyreke Evans | PG/SG/SF | Sacramento Kings
Evans is enjoying his best offensive season in his fourth year in the league, and at age 23 he certainly still has room for growth (particularly as a shooter). For that reason, any team looking to add offense in the form of a big swingman who can penetrate and finish at the rim has to have Evans on its radar.
Evans
Problem is, with his size and rare skill set, Evans has proved to be a matchup problem not only for opponents but also for his own coaches. Finding a position where he can excel remains a major question; much like Tony Wroten in Memphis, he's at his best with the ball in his hands, but he's also a poor shooter and not always a willing passer. Any team that trades for him (Boston, Minnesota, Phoenix and Memphis all rank in the bottom 11 in terms of offensive efficiency and could be interested) has to be willing to give back a high draft pick or a solid package of players, and more importantly has to also be prepared to spend money over the summer, when Evans is set to become a restricted free agent.
