Notice This feels like it's one of those moments

[Whyachi]

And as Captain Obvious, the Blazers need to be prepared for Nurkic’s next injury. The Bruce-Brown type could be a backup center/forward, or just a journeyman that’s better than Eubanks.

Nurk played 1391 minutes
Eubanks played 1584 minutes

sure, there was ~200m bonus tank run for Drew, but numbers cannot tell a lie. Eubanks and Nurkic split time 50/50 as starting Center for Portland. It's an incredible accomplishment for Eubanks. Succesfully utilizing a G-league PF/Center (aka bench grunt) as a full time starter for an NBA team is moneyball GM'ing at it's finest.

 

[Labinot41]

We are kinda fucked either way value wise. I don’t think we will get the value we should if we trade Dame or the 3rd pick.

We will get the value the Jazz got for Rudy, absolutely

 

[SharpesTriumph]

Nurk played 1391 minutes
Eubanks played 1584 minutes

sure, there was ~200m bonus tank run for Drew, but numbers cannot tell a lie. Eubanks and Nurkic split time 50/50 as starting Center for Portland. It's an incredible accomplishment for Eubanks. Succesfully utilizing a G-league PF/Center (aka bench grunt) as a full time starter for an NBA team is moneyball GM'ing at it's finest.

The issue isn't Eubanks having some backup minutes. Its without Nurk then Eubanks was the sole big so we had 25-30mpg that Eubanks sits with Grant or Watford at center.

 

[blazerfan11]

The issue isn't Eubanks having some backup minutes. Its without Nurk then Eubanks was the sole big so we had 25-30mpg that Eubanks sits with Grant or Watford at center.

Exactly.

 

[Pinwheel1]

We will get the value the Jazz got for Rudy, absolutely

Wouldn't you agree that contending teams have a smarter GM than Minnesota? I don't see a lot of teams in a position to trade for Dame, and the few that are probably are not dumb enough to give up four first-round picks, one first-round swap, and the draft rights to Rookie of the Year candidate plus 4 vets. That was a crazy dumb trade

 

[SharpesTriumph]

We will get the value the Jazz got for Rudy, absolutely

It's funny, some posters talk about how the Blazers shouldn't trade Dame no matter what because he's so valuable.

Then they simultaneously claim the Blazers could only get mediocre starters or mediocre picks for Dame. Meanwhile we see tons of players with similar or worse value than Dame traded for huge hauls. Makes no sense.

Maybe they are trying to force this invalid "low return" argument to bolster their Dame is even more untradable mantra.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

Wouldn't you agree that contending teams have a smarter GM than Minnesota? I don't a lot of teams are in a position to trade for Dame, and the few that are probably are not dumb enough to give up four first-round picks, one first-round swap, and the draft rights to Rookie of the Year candidate plus 4 vets. That was a crazy dumb trade

Cavs GM
Nets GM
Suns GM
Mavs GM

Gobert was not the only star traded for a haul in the last year. It happens all the time.

 

[Mediocre Man]

This specifically reminds me of the Oden/Durant draft. I had a bad feeling about that draft. There was no pressure last draft. This one worries me. Does anyone else get this feeling?

Yep

 

[Pinwheel1]

Cavs GM
Nets GM
Suns GM
Mavs GM

Gobert was not the only star traded for a haul in the last year. It happens all the time.

OK so give me a few examples where we could get 3 unprotected picks, 1 top 5 protected pick, and a solid rookie. (Pus players who are decent that will match Dame's salary)

 

[BLAZINGGIANTS]

I have a generalized anxiety disorder. You are goddamned right, I am worried. This is as big of an inflection point as I have seen as a fan of this team.

I do, too. But as much as I love the Blazers, this shit does not impact that for me. Or at least it doesn’t take a bite outta my living, no disrespect intended.

 

[Pinwheel1]

It feels like we're on the precipice of one of those franchise defining moments.

Bowie over Jordan.

Trading back and passing on CP3.

Trading for Brandon Roy and LMA.

Oden over Durant.

This draft has that feel. This is going to be an offseason that will change the course of this franchise, for better or worse...... and it terrifies me. I'm making this thread as a time capsule.

For me, it is more like the CP3 year. Both Oden (over Durant) and Bowie (over Jordan) the Blazers were the ones making the decision. In this case, Charlotte is making the decision.

On another note, I watch "Air" last night. I had to laugh when Sonny Vacarro talked with the guy at the convenience store twice about the Bowie-Jordan decision. It was dead on. Most people will tell you they all wanted Jordan, and most of them are full of shit.

 

[Whyachi]

The issue isn't Eubanks having some backup minutes. Its without Nurk then Eubanks was the sole big so we had 25-30mpg that Eubanks sits with Grant or Watford at center.

don't forget about Nassir at C.
Yes, there were a few 4G lineups with 6'5" Little at Center. Billups experimented with ultra guard spread offense after Payton was activated. Nurk was out, Eubanks and Grant needed a break, and the Trendon & Jabari combo had hit unusable stinkiness.

The end result after 2 minutes of tiny ball ?

Dunks, layups, offensive rebounds for the opposing team. Blazers would hit about 1-3 three's, get blocked a few times, then Billups would call timeout and put Watford and Grant back in the rotation.

 

[Labinot41]

Wouldn't you agree that contending teams have a smarter GM than Minnesota? I don't see a lot of teams in a position to trade for Dame, and the few that are probably are not dumb enough to give up four first-round picks, one first-round swap, and the draft rights to Rookie of the Year candidate plus 4 vets. That was a crazy dumb trade

I give you one, but that scenario is pretty radical for the Blazers:

Blazers trade Dame to Houston, the Rockets sign Harden.

Blazers get:
Houston #4 in 2023

Brooklyn 1st unprotected in 2024

The higher 1st from Brooklyn or OKC in 2025

Brooklyn 1st unprotected in 2026

The higher 1st from Houston or Brooklyn in 2027

and to match salary, the Rockets won't have to trade a big contract to Portland, because they have over 70 million cap space this summer. So you may ask why would the Rockets do that? If it's true that Harden goes back there, and you pair him with Dame and their young guys, they might be dumb enough to think that that team could win a Championship, if their owner has no patience, something like that could maybe happen when teams decides that they want to compete now.

And then the Blazers could trade Simons for Orlando 11th Pick, that would be a monster haul to set up for a new era

 

[Tince]

You would have to be specific about that high-quality player and the full cost. The #3 pick alone can’t get you a player with a salary.

Correct. One of the many unknowns and why I'm uncomfortable saying to not trade the pick or to trade the pick.

 

[Pinwheel1]

I give you one, but that scenario is pretty radical for the Blazers:

Blazers trade Dame to Houston, the Rockets sign Harden.

Blazers get:
Houston #4 in 2023

Brooklyn 1st unprotected in 2024

The higher 1st from Brooklyn or OKC in 2025

Brooklyn 1st unprotected in 2026

The higher 1st from Houston or Brooklyn in 2027

and to match salary, the Rockets won't have to trade a big contract to Portland, because they have over 70 million cap space this summer. So you may ask why would the Rockets do that? If it's true that Harden goes back there, and you pair him with Dame and their young guys, they might be dumb enough to think that that team could win a Championship, if their owner has no patience, something like that could maybe happen when teams decides that they want to compete now.

And then the Blazers could trade Simons for Orlando 11th Pick, that would be a monster haul to set up for a new era

Yeah that is pretty good. But after that trade to absorb Dame's contract, would they have enough to sign Harden and his new 200 million contract?
It could happen but I don't think Houston would do it.

 

[Labinot41]

or imagine Orlando is really high on Simons and would give us #6 for him, in that scenario the Blazers could have Scoot/Miller at 3, one of the Thompsons at 4 and Walker at 6.

Scoot/Miller
Sharpe
Walker
Thompson

Does that sound nice? Instead of fighting for a Playin spot every year?

 

[Tince]

No, this is not teue. Who is the high quality player I didn't mention, Siakam is probably the best off my don't trade for list.

The Blazers aren't winning a title with him, yes he has a higher floor than #3, but he doesn't have near as high of a ceiling. He also costs both the pick, Ant, and more salary space. We're basically following another Olshey treadmill of mediocrity for 3 years.

So even if the #3 pick is a bust, Siakam in 3 years is an overpaid declining veteran. It won't matter that much if we do or don't have him. If #3 busts then maybe we're slight worse off but it's not significant difference to any year of Portland getting a championship.

But if we do some Siakam type trade, pass on Scoot, and he's a superstar, it most certainly could be the difference in contending, for even longer than a decade.

If Portland was one small piece away from a title then yes having the higher floor of Siakam could lead to a higher chance of a title. That would change this calculus. The lottery Blazers are not this close to contending, thus a higher floor Siakam player doesn't provide a benefit.

We're dealing in a hypothetical world where there are many variables we do not know.

We do not know if a traded players skillset will be improved or diminished by being traded to Portland. We do not know if the player drafted at #3 will be amazing or be a bust. We do not know if the player drafted at #3 would want to stay in Portland into their prime. We do not know how the other moves made will intice or detract from other players being on the roster.

Of the options I've seen presented, none of them are low risk. Going young and doing a total rebuild appears to have the highest upside and lowest downside because we're talking about a lot more players with minimal track record vs proven players with a track record, that still has variables as they age, fit with different players, etc.

I believe windows are going to open and close much faster with the new CBA, but that's speculation on my part as well. I think 6-8 year plans are going to be incredibly hard to execute.

And yes, there is certainly a scenario where Siakam has move value to the franchise than Scoot. Do I think it's probable? No. But I can't dismiss any draft pick as being a possible failure. Scoot/Miller included.

 

[Tince]

or imagine Orlando is really high on Simons and would give us #6 for him, in that scenario the Blazers could have Scoot/Miller at 3, one of the Thompsons at 4 and Walker at 6.

Scoot/Miller
Sharpe
Walker
Thompson

Does that sound nice? Instead of fighting for a Playin spot every year?

That team would not be in the play-in. Or the payoffs.

Potential would be super high. Odds of them all developing and being able to retain them into their 2nd contract while still maintaining the cap flexibility to grow around them would be very difficult.

 

[Labinot41]

That team would not be in the play-in. Or the payoffs.

Potential would be super high. Odds of them all developing and being able to retain them into their 2nd contract while still maintaining the cap flexibility to grow around them would be very difficult.

Thats what i said, "instead of fighting for a Playin spot every year" with the current Team.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

OK so give me a few examples where we could get 3 unprotected picks, 1 top 5 protected pick, and a solid rookie. (Pus players who are decent that will match Dame's salary)

Well give me an example where we get someone with two middle names and green eyes?

Both hypotheticals are as useful as measuring Dame trades. Blazers would need a combo of young players and or picks that gave them a good return. Plenty of teams have those assets. It doesn't have to be such an exact checklist. It could be all picks, all young players, or a combo.

 

[inconceivable]

This will be a simple draft I think

Step 1. Draft Scoot or Miller, whoever is there.

Step 2. See what other teams wanna give up for Scoot or Miller. If you like the best offer, make the trade. Otherwise, keep the player.

 

[Mediocre Man]

This will be a simple draft I think

Step 1. Draft Scoot or Miller, whoever is there.

Step 2. See what other teams wanna give up for Scoot or Miller. If you like the best offer, make the trade. Otherwise, keep the player.

Not how it works

 

[Pinwheel1]

Well give me an example where we get someone with two middle names and green eyes?

Both hypotheticals are as useful as measuring Dame trades. Blazers would need a combo of young players and or picks that gave them a good return. Plenty of teams have those assets. It doesn't have to be such an exact checklist. It could be all picks, all young players, or a combo.

That works as well. But I was responding to a post that thought we could get back as good of a haul as Utah did. It does not have to be exactly like theirs, just that it needs to be as good.

 

[Predator]

It's funny, some posters talk about how the Blazers shouldn't trade Dame no matter what because he's so valuable.

Then they simultaneously claim the Blazers could only get mediocre starters or mediocre picks for Dame. Meanwhile we see tons of players with similar or worse value than Dame traded for huge hauls. Makes no sense.

Maybe they are trying to force this invalid "low return" argument to bolster their Dame is even more untradable mantra.

Dame is older, makes more money, and frankly will have a very limited list of teams he'd be willing to "accept" a trade to. He also plays in one of the deepest current positions in the NBA which devalues him as a player.

So looking at winning teams that need a PG...

Boston?
Phoenix?
Philly?
Lakers?
Brooklyn?

Now who has the assets to actually make that trade?

 

[STOMP]

Correct. One of the many unknowns and why I'm uncomfortable saying to not trade the pick or to trade the pick.

I'm open to trading the pick and/or Dame and/or whoever... whats coming back is the relevant question

STOMP

 

[Tince]

I'm open to trading the pick and/or Dame and/or whoever... whats coming back is the relevant question

STOMP

Amen!

 

[tykendo]

Dame is older, makes more money, and frankly will have a very limited list of teams he'd be willing to "accept" a trade to. He also plays in one of the deepest current positions in the NBA which devalues him as a player.

So looking at winning teams that need a PG...

Boston?
Phoenix?
Philly?
Lakers?
Brooklyn?

Now who has the assets to actually make that trade?

Why is Brooklyn in there. They weren't close. And none of the others have anything ,they're willing to give up, that's worth trading a generational talent for. They want you to accept a lump of coal , and like it, in return. That's the Jerry West always operated.

 

[Natebishop3]

Amen!

Nah. I don’t really want Amen. Have you seen his shot? Reminds me of Aminu only he doesn’t make them.

 

[Stevenson]

I agree, we are at a crossroads, and I hope Cronin swings big. Go big or go home!

I remember when Geoff Petrie was with the Kings. He traded Mitch Richmond for a disgruntled Chris Webber, signed Vlade, and drafted Jason Williams - all in one summer. Totally reset the course of the franchise. That's what I want to see!

 

[Natebishop3]

I agree, we are at a crossroads, and I hope Cronin swings big. Go big or go home!

I remember when Geoff Petrie was with the Kings. He traded Mitch Richmond for a disgruntled Chris Webber, signed Vlade, and drafted Jason Williams - all in one summer. Totally reset the course of the franchise. That's what I want to see!

When did they get Peja? He was around that time too I thought.