Time for a Major Shakeup

[PtldPlatypus]

just adding a bit: that 6-18 mark in the playoffs includes 3 wins against the crippled Clippers team. Take those out and Portland is 3-18

and since Olshey got his wish and got rid of all the players that preceded his hiring, the playoff record minus those 3 games against LAC is 2-14. That was the team last season...that was the team that Olshey spent 6 years building. That was the team that Olshey himself said needed playoff tested veterans and then he went out, drafted 2 rookie guards, and signed two veterans that had never played in a playoff game

he exchanged Davis, Napier, and Connaughton for Stauskas and Curry; and he cornered Stotts into playing Meyers more. Olshey didn't even have enough skill or vision to adjust the angle or speed on the treadmill Portland is stumbling on. And all that for a team that's 8M over the tax line

the roster is a mess. It was a mess last year and the year before. Olshey broke the roster in 2016 and should have been fired within 6 months of that massive incompetence. But he's still there, convinced CJ is a great player and that Portland can just grow their way out of purgatory. As long as he occupies the GM position, Portland will be mediocre.

Excellent first post. Welcome to RipCityTwo!

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

just adding a bit: that 6-18 mark in the playoffs includes 3 wins against the crippled Clippers team. Take those out and Portland is 3-18

and since Olshey got his wish and got rid of all the players that preceded his hiring, the playoff record minus those 3 games against LAC is 2-14. That was the team last season...that was the team that Olshey spent 6 years building. That was the team that Olshey himself said needed playoff tested veterans and then he went out, drafted 2 rookie guards, and signed two veterans that had never played in a playoff game

he exchanged Davis, Napier, and Connaughton for Stauskas and Curry; and he cornered Stotts into playing Meyers more. Olshey didn't even have enough skill or vision to adjust the angle or speed on the treadmill Portland is stumbling on. And all that for a team that's 8M over the tax line

the roster is a mess. It was a mess last year and the year before. Olshey broke the roster in 2016 and should have been fired within 6 months of that massive incompetence. But he's still there, convinced CJ is a great player and that Portland can just grow their way out of purgatory. As long as he occupies the GM position, Portland will be mediocre.

WTH? You have waited 10 years to post and you can't come up with anything positive??!!

 

[Scalma]

Olshey hasn’t made a significant move since he traded Plumlee for Nurkic. That was two seasons ago. He got Paul Allen to buy into build through osmosis bullshit, and now is probably going to see his contract through. Con man only worried about his job security. Aldridge leaving was the perfect opportunity for him to sell his boss on a 5 year plan. A 5 year plan that leveled out two years ago. But he got his steady paycheck so..

 

[hoopsjock]

just adding a bit: that 6-18 mark in the playoffs includes 3 wins against the crippled Clippers team. Take those out and Portland is 3-18

and since Olshey got his wish and got rid of all the players that preceded his hiring, the playoff record minus those 3 games against LAC is 2-14. That was the team last season...that was the team that Olshey spent 6 years building. That was the team that Olshey himself said needed playoff tested veterans and then he went out, drafted 2 rookie guards, and signed two veterans that had never played in a playoff game

he exchanged Davis, Napier, and Connaughton for Stauskas and Curry; and he cornered Stotts into playing Meyers more. Olshey didn't even have enough skill or vision to adjust the angle or speed on the treadmill Portland is stumbling on. And all that for a team that's 8M over the tax line

the roster is a mess. It was a mess last year and the year before. Olshey broke the roster in 2016 and should have been fired within 6 months of that massive incompetence. But he's still there, convinced CJ is a great player and that Portland can just grow their way out of purgatory. As long as he occupies the GM position, Portland will be mediocre.

I'm not directing this at you, but I'm sick of the Clipper thing being brought up so much in the past couple days. We were blowing them out in Game 4 and even without the injuries were likely about to even the series at 2-2. The Clippers were notorious chokers who had blown 2-0 series leads before. We'll never know what would have happened had both teams been at full strength.

If we are going to go down that road, the Blazers were the hottest team in the league after the All-Star break of the 2016-17 season and lost both Nurk and Davis to injuries. The one game in the playoffs Nurk played on one leg they almost beat the Warriors. The what-if game can go on forever.

We also don't know what role Paul Allen had in both the contracts of 2016 (Chris Haynes said it was Allen who decided immediately without hesitation to match the Crabbe offer) and we also don't know what instructions he left in place after he passed away. This isn't excusing Olshey, I just think that is the most likely reason he wasn't fired after that off-season.

 

[dviss1]

Oh fuck that community and franchise bull shit man.. let the guy go so he can enjoy himself somewhere. The Dame era since LMA left has been nothing but mediocrity.

The guy is nearly 30 and your saying build around him AGAIN? Lmao

It’s over bud. The best thing to do is strip this shit to the studs and build it right. We can get a shit load of picks for Dame and Cj. Dallas, Sac, Denver, they all passed us up now. Shit with Phx getting Ayton and having Devin Booker 1 more lottery year for them and they might even have passed us.

This shit has been a colossal failure since LMA left

What a crappy, post. It's so shortsighted.

 

[hoopsjock]

Olshey hasn’t made a significant move since he traded Plumlee for Nurkic. That was two seasons ago. He got Paul Allen to buy into build through osmosis bullshit, and now is probably going to see his contract through. Con man only worried about his job security. Aldridge leaving was the perfect opportunity for him to sell his boss on a 5 year plan. A 5 year plan that leveled out two years ago. But he got his steady paycheck so..

View attachment 23667

To be fair, his 5 year plan did start when Aldridge left but he wasn't expecting the team to still make the playoffs. Normally you would assume if a team lost 4 of its 5 starters that they'd be tanking or have a high lottery pick but because they made the playoffs they lost their pick as part of the Afflalo trade.

 

[Gronk Brady]

What a crappy, post. It's so shortsighted.

I disagree... its the opposite of shortsighted

 

[jlprk]

Excellent first post. Welcome to RipCityTwo!

WTH? You have waited 10 years to post and you can't come up with anything positive??!!

He's big on another board. He just copied and pasted what he's typed a hundred times there. Good poster, though.

 

[Scalma]

To be fair, his 5 year plan did start when Aldridge left but he wasn't expecting the team to still make the playoffs. Normally you would assume if a team lost 4 of its 5 starters that they'd be tanking or have a high lottery pick but because they made the playoffs they lost their pick as part of the Afflalo trade.

He should’ve gotten more aggressive in speeding up the process, something he even admitted himself this past offseason (not being proactive at the deadline, need for acquiring playoff tested players, etc.) Then he went and did absolutely nothing about it, yet somehow still survived.

It’s way past time for a significant trade, a firing, or both.

 

[hoopsjock]

He should’ve gotten more aggressive in speeding up the process, something he even admitted himself this past offseason (not being proactive at the deadline, need for acquiring playoff tested players, etc.) Then he went and did absolutely nothing about it, yet somehow still survived.

It’s way past time for a significant trade, a firing, or both.

I agree that after the Nurk trade, it's pretty much been a disaster. The only hope is that Zach and Anfernee turn into stars. He did try to get PG13 last summer. It's a different argument to say he should have sped up the process instead of your original comment that he should have started the 5 year plan after Aldridge left.

 

[illmatic99]

There is no five year plan. If he didn't fall ass backwards into Nurkic, he'd have very few positives going for him.

 

[THE HCP]

He's big on another board. He just copied and pasted what he's typed a hundred times there. Good poster, though.

That’s like telling everybody you have a hot girlfriend.......in Canada.

 

[Scalma]

I agree that after the Nurk trade, it's pretty much been a disaster. The only hope is that Zach and Anfernee turn into stars. He did try to get PG13 last summer. It's a different argument to say he should have sped up the process instead of your original comment that he should have started the 5 year plan after Aldridge left.

Well, what are you saying then? If you have a plan to rebuild, and the team shows that it’s better than you thought, wouldn’t the correct play be to speed up the process? The rebuild flies out the window when you’re consistently in the playoffs. We’ve been floating in mediocrity with no real direction in sight.

 

[Labinot41]

just adding a bit: that 6-18 mark in the playoffs includes 3 wins against the crippled Clippers team. Take those out and Portland is 3-18

and since Olshey got his wish and got rid of all the players that preceded his hiring, the playoff record minus those 3 games against LAC is 2-14. That was the team last season...that was the team that Olshey spent 6 years building. That was the team that Olshey himself said needed playoff tested veterans and then he went out, drafted 2 rookie guards, and signed two veterans that had never played in a playoff game

he exchanged Davis, Napier, and Connaughton for Stauskas and Curry; and he cornered Stotts into playing Meyers more. Olshey didn't even have enough skill or vision to adjust the angle or speed on the treadmill Portland is stumbling on. And all that for a team that's 8M over the tax line

the roster is a mess. It was a mess last year and the year before. Olshey broke the roster in 2016 and should have been fired within 6 months of that massive incompetence. But he's still there, convinced CJ is a great player and that Portland can just grow their way out of purgatory. As long as he occupies the GM position, Portland will be mediocre.

Whats up wiz how you doing? I know you from RealGM and i love your posts, welcome on ripcity2 man! I know you're a big CJ critic and a critc of the Dame/CJ backcourt pairing, i'm with you on that

 

[Labinot41]

Guys Wiz is Boss, he's been telling the truth for years about this Roster, CJ and most of all Olshey

 

[hoopsjock]

Well, what are you saying then? If you have a plan to rebuild, and the team shows that it’s better than you thought, wouldn’t the correct play be to speed up the process? The rebuild flies out the window when you’re consistently in the playoffs. We’ve been floating in mediocrity with no real direction in sight.

I'm saying that clearly the plan was to rebuild using a 5 year plan, the failure was to adjust the plan correctly when the team turned out better than expected. However, getting from the point the Blazers are at into contention is one of the most difficult things to do in sports.

 

[dviss1]

I disagree... its the opposite of shortsighted

What's new? We always disagree.

 

[wizenheimer]

I know he's become the scapegoat, but CJ has actually been a more efficient scorer than Lillard since November 1st.


Since Nov. 1st, Dames is at 26ppg on 54.9 TS%. CJ is at 22.4 PPG on 56.9 TS%.


That's really effective scoring from CJ and he provides a lot of the spacing on offense. It's basically been everyone else who has been less efficient over this down streak.

and yet, for this season:

TS%: CJ .552....Dame .582
PER: CJ 16.7....Dame 24.8
Assist Rate: CJ 11.4%....Dame 29.6%
winshare/48: CJ .095....Dame .205
Box Plus/Minus: CJ -0.4....Dame +5.6
Value Over Replacement: CJ 0.3....Dame 1.6

there are a lot of factors that go into winning streaks and losing streaks, not just a single shooting efficiency number

there is also another factor, and it's a big one: CJ drafts off of the defensive focus opponents invest in Dame. He always has. We've seen it over and over...teams put their best perimeter defender on Lillard and quite often, they double Dame and jump screens. They almost never do that with CJ. Denver put their best defender, Gary Harris on Dame, and they doubled him constantly. Meanwhile, they allowed open driving lanes to CJ, obviously believing that CJ was not capable of beating them on his own. He wasn't

More and more we're seeing teams use the same strategy on Portland that the Pelicans used in the playoffs: make life miserable for Dame and don't let him beat them. It works because there's no other player on the roster capable of carrying the team like Dame can.

Remember when CJ 'burst' onto the scene in the 2015 playoffs against Memphis? He had a great series posting great numbers. Meanwhile, Memphis swarmed over Dame using Tony Allen and Mike Conley and constant doubles. But while CJ had a great series, his team got waxed. (and reportedly, Olshey was a lot more excited about being "right" about CJ then he was disappointed about the Blazers being crushed). Fast forward a few playoffs to the Pelicans last season. Once again CJ had a great series...but the team got swept and looked terrible.

CJ is a classic empty stats guy. He doesn't make his team or his teammates better. He just gets his and he pounds the hell out of the ball to get it

CJ's assist rate progression:

2015-16 - 21.6%
2016-17 - 18.%
2017-18 - 15.8%
2018-19 - 11.4%

That's a horrible trend-line, and it's really not winning basketball when a player has as high a usage rate and is as much a ball-stopper as CJ is. There was an article on Blazers Edge last season based upon Synergy data that showed that among frequent scorers, CJ averaged more dribbles and longer time on possessions then anybody else in the NBA...and the gaps between him and the 2nd ranked player weren't close.

CJ kind of reminds me of Martell Webster. Not in style as they were completely different players. But Webster had about the greatest shooting stroke you ever could see. The form was perfect, the release was optimal. It made people expect great things and overrate him because of his shooting style. But Webster's shooting results never lived up to the perception established by his form. He was only a career 38% from the arc and only 42% overall. I think a similar overrating has happened with CJ. He's a very clever ball-handler that has crossover dribbles and rocker steps galore. Sometimes he looks unstoppable in iso and it has made people actually overrate his impact significantly in my view. Maybe CJ's biggest problem, other than his ball-hog habits, is he can't get to the FT line.

add it all together: CJ has a high usage rate; he dribbles a ton and burns thru shot clock; he doesn't pass the ball or find open teammates; he doesn't get to the FT line leaving him with only average shooting efficiency. What is there to like? CJ is not a good one-on-one player but that's what he does most often. On the other hand, CJ is elite in spot-up shooting. What CJ should be doing is running off screens a lot more and dribbling a lot less. His game should be a lot more like Klay Thompson's and a lot less like Dame's, but it's not. Stotts should throttle CJ way back but he doesn't. Olshey should trade CJ but he won't. I should end this and I will.

 

[illmatic99]

CJ is a classic empty stats guy. He doesn't make his team or his teammates better. He just gets his and he pounds the hell out of the ball to get it

CJ's assist rate progression:

2015-16 - 21.6%
2016-17 - 18.%
2017-18 - 15.8%
2018-19 - 11.4%

That's a horrible trend-line, and it's really not winning basketball when a player has as high a usage rate and is as much a ball-stopper as CJ is. There was an article on Blazers Edge last season based upon Synergy data that showed that among frequent scorers, CJ averaged more dribbles and longer time on possessions then anybody else in the NBA...and the gaps between him and the 2nd ranked player weren't close.

This is a nice narrative, but it's also disingenuous. CJ's usage has also dropped every year since then and over the past two years, he has barely played any time as PG or primary ball handler.

Time at PG:
2015: 34%
2016: 30%
2017: 9%
2018: 0 !

 

[wizenheimer]

This is a nice narrative, but it's also disingenuous. CJ's usage has also dropped every year since then and over the past two years, he has barely played any time as PG or primary ball handler.

Time at PG:
2015: 34%
2016: 30%
2017: 9%
2018: 0 !

let's unpack that. Since 2015-16, CJ's usage rate has dropped 4.7%; meanwhile, his assist rate has dropped 47.2%. Look at those numbers and tell me who is being "disingenuous"

and where are you getting those PG numbers from. I don't really believe them nor do I think it matters much....

assist rates:

Jusuf Nurkic 13.4
Nik Stauskas 13.3
CJ McCollum 11.4
Meyers Leonard 10.7

I could be wrong, but I'd bet Nurkic and Meyers haven't played PG either

 

[illmatic99]

let's unpack that. Since 2015-16, CJ's usage rate has dropped 4.7%; meanwhile, his assist rate has dropped 47.2%. Look at those numbers and tell me who is being "disingenuous"

and where are you getting those PG numbers from. I don't really believe them nor do I think it matters much....

assist rates:

Jusuf Nurkic 13.4
Nik Stauskas 13.3
CJ McCollum 11.4
Meyers Leonard 10.7

I could be wrong, but I'd bet Nurkic and Meyers haven't played PG either

BFD. Could be wrong? Get that passive aggressive bullshit back to where you came from.

Their roles are different. CJ is asked to be a scorer. I want him to expand his game and stop missing open shooters/cutters as much as the next guy, but calling him an empty stats player and just pointing out his ast% as a standalone stat without providing context is bogus. And nothing infuriates me more than when he goes one on 5 after a million dribbles, but I think it's more a function of his role and lack of help outside of Dame/Nurk than anything. We haven't ever seen him next to guys who can provide spacing or legit offensive threats to take away defensive attention.

 

[wizenheimer]

We also don't know what role Paul Allen had in both the contracts of 2016 (Chris Haynes said it was Allen who decided immediately without hesitation to match the Crabbe offer) and we also don't know what instructions he left in place after he passed away. This isn't excusing Olshey, I just think that is the most likely reason he wasn't fired after that off-season.

I'm not accusing you of anything

but I will say I have heard the 'Paul-Allen-Made-Olshey-Do-It' excuse before from Olshey apologists. It's true, we don't know how much influence PA had in any decision. The problem I have with it is that the same people claiming Paul Allen was responsible for all the bad decisions will turn right around and give Olshey all the credit for the good decisions. That makes no sense. If PA was micro-managing the bad decisions, he was also micro-managing the good ones

also...I read that Chris Haynes article a couple of times and I really noticed his sourcing. He quoted Olshey on several things. That wasn't surprising since he had been the Blazer beat reporter for a couple of years and had a good relationship with Olshey. But he also said several un-sourced things in that article, opinions and conjecture, that implied Olshey was less culpable for those bad contracts in 2016. From just reading that article, my hunch is that Olshey told Haynes things 'on-the-record' and other things 'off-the-record'. I don't believe Haynes talked to anyone else but Olshey. He certainly didn't talk to PA

 

[wizenheimer]

BFD. Could be wrong? Get that passive aggressive bullshit back to where you came from.

Their roles are different. CJ is asked to be a scorer. I want him to expand his game and stop missing open shooters/cutters as much as the next guy, but calling him an empty stats player and just pointing out his ast% as a standalone stat without providing context is bogus. And nothing infuriates me more than when he goes one on 5 after a million dribbles, but I think it's more a function of his role and lack of help outside of Dame/Nurk than anything. We haven't ever seen him next to guys who can provide spacing or legit offensive threats to take away defensive attention.

about CJ not playing with offensive threats that get defensive attention away from him. I think you're confusing CJ with Dame

you are the one that tied usage rate to assist rate. And you are the one that argued that somehow, not playing backup PG for the few minutes Dame isn't on the floor is the reason why CJ's assist rate has collapsed.

it isn't just that Nurkic and Stauskas have better assist rates, it that a whole bunch of NBA players who are not PG's have much better assist rates than CJ...and many, most, are better scorers to boot. And most, play better defense:

Devin Booker 33.7
DeMar DeRozan 28.2
Lou Williams 27.9
Zach LaVine 24.9
Victor Oladipo 24.2
Joe Ingles 21.3
Luka Doncic 20.9
Bradley Beal 19.9
Evan Fournier 19.7
Donovan Mitchell 19.6
Paul George 19.4
Jimmy Butler 18.8
Khris Middleton 18.1
Josh Richardson 15.2
CJ McCollum 11.4

this isn't just about CJ's role. It's about his tendencies and his limitations. He can do a better job of finding options that don't require him to shoot. He's done so in the past. It was never a strong skill of his because he doesn't have good play-making vision. He misses open passing lanes all the time due to his hooplock

I actually assign a good chunk of the blame here to Stotts. Stotts could reign-in some of CJ's bad habits but he hasn't so far

but what is "disingenuous" is to argue like CJ has some kind of exclusive role he plays that prevents him from making passes and running offense for teammates. Many other players have similar roles to CJ, and are "asked to be scorers", and somehow still find a way to do something CJ apparently doesn't care to do

 

[hoopsjock]

I'm not accusing you of anything

but I will say I have heard the 'Paul-Allen-Made-Olshey-Do-It' excuse before from Olshey apologists. It's true, we don't know how much influence PA had in any decision. The problem I have with it is that the same people claiming Paul Allen was responsible for all the bad decisions will turn right around and give Olshey all the credit for the good decisions. That makes no sense. If PA was micro-managing the bad decisions, he was also micro-managing the good ones

also...I read that Chris Haynes article a couple of times and I really noticed his sourcing. He quoted Olshey on several things. That wasn't surprising since he had been the Blazer beat reporter for a couple of years and had a good relationship with Olshey. But he also said several un-sourced things in that article, opinions and conjecture, that implied Olshey was less culpable for those bad contracts in 2016. From just reading that article, my hunch is that Olshey told Haynes things 'on-the-record' and other things 'off-the-record'. I don't believe Haynes talked to anyone else but Olshey. He certainly didn't talk to PA

I'm not giving Olshey the blame or the credit. The fact that he still had a job until Allen's death is proof that at the very least Allen agreed with his decisions and had some influence. My original comments were to why he wasn't fired. So yeah, it makes complete sense that they were making decisions together.

It's also possible that Allen told him to keep Crabbe, Harkless, and Leonard at whatever cost was necessary. At the same time I doubt it was Allen's decision to sign Evan Turner so yes it is possible to "bifurcate" (sorry I cracked myself up with that one) credit in different situations.

Allen fired KP partly because allegedly he was taking too much credit for building the team. If Haynes' article was inaccurate then why wouldn't he do the same with Olshey?

 

[Rozay]

let's unpack that. Since 2015-16, CJ's usage rate has dropped 4.7%; meanwhile, his assist rate has dropped 47.2%. Look at those numbers and tell me who is being "disingenuous"

and where are you getting those PG numbers from. I don't really believe them nor do I think it matters much....

assist rates:

Jusuf Nurkic 13.4
Nik Stauskas 13.3
CJ McCollum 11.4
Meyers Leonard 10.7

I could be wrong, but I'd bet Nurkic and Meyers haven't played PG either

Cj has nobody to pass to I don’t mind him shooting his teammates suck

 

[Labinot41]

and yet, for this season:

TS%: CJ .552....Dame .582
PER: CJ 16.7....Dame 24.8
Assist Rate: CJ 11.4%....Dame 29.6%
winshare/48: CJ .095....Dame .205
Box Plus/Minus: CJ -0.4....Dame +5.6
Value Over Replacement: CJ 0.3....Dame 1.6

there are a lot of factors that go into winning streaks and losing streaks, not just a single shooting efficiency number

there is also another factor, and it's a big one: CJ drafts off of the defensive focus opponents invest in Dame. He always has. We've seen it over and over...teams put their best perimeter defender on Lillard and quite often, they double Dame and jump screens. They almost never do that with CJ. Denver put their best defender, Gary Harris on Dame, and they doubled him constantly. Meanwhile, they allowed open driving lanes to CJ, obviously believing that CJ was not capable of beating them on his own. He wasn't

More and more we're seeing teams use the same strategy on Portland that the Pelicans used in the playoffs: make life miserable for Dame and don't let him beat them. It works because there's no other player on the roster capable of carrying the team like Dame can.

Remember when CJ 'burst' onto the scene in the 2015 playoffs against Memphis? He had a great series posting great numbers. Meanwhile, Memphis swarmed over Dame using Tony Allen and Mike Conley and constant doubles. But while CJ had a great series, his team got waxed. (and reportedly, Olshey was a lot more excited about being "right" about CJ then he was disappointed about the Blazers being crushed). Fast forward a few playoffs to the Pelicans last season. Once again CJ had a great series...but the team got swept and looked terrible.

CJ is a classic empty stats guy. He doesn't make his team or his teammates better. He just gets his and he pounds the hell out of the ball to get it

CJ's assist rate progression:

2015-16 - 21.6%
2016-17 - 18.%
2017-18 - 15.8%
2018-19 - 11.4%

That's a horrible trend-line, and it's really not winning basketball when a player has as high a usage rate and is as much a ball-stopper as CJ is. There was an article on Blazers Edge last season based upon Synergy data that showed that among frequent scorers, CJ averaged more dribbles and longer time on possessions then anybody else in the NBA...and the gaps between him and the 2nd ranked player weren't close.

CJ kind of reminds me of Martell Webster. Not in style as they were completely different players. But Webster had about the greatest shooting stroke you ever could see. The form was perfect, the release was optimal. It made people expect great things and overrate him because of his shooting style. But Webster's shooting results never lived up to the perception established by his form. He was only a career 38% from the arc and only 42% overall. I think a similar overrating has happened with CJ. He's a very clever ball-handler that has crossover dribbles and rocker steps galore. Sometimes he looks unstoppable in iso and it has made people actually overrate his impact significantly in my view. Maybe CJ's biggest problem, other than his ball-hog habits, is he can't get to the FT line.

add it all together: CJ has a high usage rate; he dribbles a ton and burns thru shot clock; he doesn't pass the ball or find open teammates; he doesn't get to the FT line leaving him with only average shooting efficiency. What is there to like? CJ is not a good one-on-one player but that's what he does most often. On the other hand, CJ is elite in spot-up shooting. What CJ should be doing is running off screens a lot more and dribbling a lot less. His game should be a lot more like Klay Thompson's and a lot less like Dame's, but it's not. Stotts should throttle CJ way back but he doesn't. Olshey should trade CJ but he won't. I should end this and I will.

Dude your posts are too real, Never leave please

 

[Scalma]

and yet, for this season:

TS%: CJ .552....Dame .582
PER: CJ 16.7....Dame 24.8
Assist Rate: CJ 11.4%....Dame 29.6%
winshare/48: CJ .095....Dame .205
Box Plus/Minus: CJ -0.4....Dame +5.6
Value Over Replacement: CJ 0.3....Dame 1.6

there are a lot of factors that go into winning streaks and losing streaks, not just a single shooting efficiency number

there is also another factor, and it's a big one: CJ drafts off of the defensive focus opponents invest in Dame. He always has. We've seen it over and over...teams put their best perimeter defender on Lillard and quite often, they double Dame and jump screens. They almost never do that with CJ. Denver put their best defender, Gary Harris on Dame, and they doubled him constantly. Meanwhile, they allowed open driving lanes to CJ, obviously believing that CJ was not capable of beating them on his own. He wasn't

More and more we're seeing teams use the same strategy on Portland that the Pelicans used in the playoffs: make life miserable for Dame and don't let him beat them. It works because there's no other player on the roster capable of carrying the team like Dame can.

Remember when CJ 'burst' onto the scene in the 2015 playoffs against Memphis? He had a great series posting great numbers. Meanwhile, Memphis swarmed over Dame using Tony Allen and Mike Conley and constant doubles. But while CJ had a great series, his team got waxed. (and reportedly, Olshey was a lot more excited about being "right" about CJ then he was disappointed about the Blazers being crushed). Fast forward a few playoffs to the Pelicans last season. Once again CJ had a great series...but the team got swept and looked terrible.

CJ is a classic empty stats guy. He doesn't make his team or his teammates better. He just gets his and he pounds the hell out of the ball to get it

CJ's assist rate progression:

2015-16 - 21.6%
2016-17 - 18.%
2017-18 - 15.8%
2018-19 - 11.4%

That's a horrible trend-line, and it's really not winning basketball when a player has as high a usage rate and is as much a ball-stopper as CJ is. There was an article on Blazers Edge last season based upon Synergy data that showed that among frequent scorers, CJ averaged more dribbles and longer time on possessions then anybody else in the NBA...and the gaps between him and the 2nd ranked player weren't close.

CJ kind of reminds me of Martell Webster. Not in style as they were completely different players. But Webster had about the greatest shooting stroke you ever could see. The form was perfect, the release was optimal. It made people expect great things and overrate him because of his shooting style. But Webster's shooting results never lived up to the perception established by his form. He was only a career 38% from the arc and only 42% overall. I think a similar overrating has happened with CJ. He's a very clever ball-handler that has crossover dribbles and rocker steps galore. Sometimes he looks unstoppable in iso and it has made people actually overrate his impact significantly in my view. Maybe CJ's biggest problem, other than his ball-hog habits, is he can't get to the FT line.

add it all together: CJ has a high usage rate; he dribbles a ton and burns thru shot clock; he doesn't pass the ball or find open teammates; he doesn't get to the FT line leaving him with only average shooting efficiency. What is there to like? CJ is not a good one-on-one player but that's what he does most often. On the other hand, CJ is elite in spot-up shooting. What CJ should be doing is running off screens a lot more and dribbling a lot less. His game should be a lot more like Klay Thompson's and a lot less like Dame's, but it's not. Stotts should throttle CJ way back but he doesn't. Olshey should trade CJ but he won't. I should end this and I will.

Hater.

 

[Propagandist]

about CJ not playing with offensive threats that get defensive attention away from him. I think you're confusing CJ with Dame

you are the one that tied usage rate to assist rate. And you are the one that argued that somehow, not playing backup PG for the few minutes Dame isn't on the floor is the reason why CJ's assist rate has collapsed.

it isn't just that Nurkic and Stauskas have better assist rates, it that a whole bunch of NBA players who are not PG's have much better assist rates than CJ...and many, most, are better scorers to boot. And most, play better defense:

Devin Booker 33.7
DeMar DeRozan 28.2
Lou Williams 27.9
Zach LaVine 24.9
Victor Oladipo 24.2
Joe Ingles 21.3
Luka Doncic 20.9
Bradley Beal 19.9
Evan Fournier 19.7
Donovan Mitchell 19.6
Paul George 19.4
Jimmy Butler 18.8
Khris Middleton 18.1
Josh Richardson 15.2
CJ McCollum 11.4

this isn't just about CJ's role. It's about his tendencies and his limitations. He can do a better job of finding options that don't require him to shoot. He's done so in the past. It was never a strong skill of his because he doesn't have good play-making vision. He misses open passing lanes all the time due to his hooplock

I actually assign a good chunk of the blame here to Stotts. Stotts could reign-in some of CJ's bad habits but he hasn't so far

but what is "disingenuous" is to argue like CJ has some kind of exclusive role he plays that prevents him from making passes and running offense for teammates. Many other players have similar roles to CJ, and are "asked to be scorers", and somehow still find a way to do something CJ apparently doesn't care to do

My man...

 

[wizenheimer]

Cj has nobody to pass to I don’t mind him shooting his teammates suck

TrueShooting%:

Meyers Leonard .685
Zach Collins .614
Jake Layman .610
Damian Lillard .582
Al-Farouq Aminu .578
Jusuf Nurkic .576
Nik Stauskas .570
CJ McCollum .552

Many Blazers are better shooters so far this year and there are plenty of players for CJ to pass to, but most actually need a ball-handler to set them up for decent opportunities. CJ has the ball in his hands, a lot, so he has some responsibility here but he's been failing at it while busy pursuing his own offense

Dame has a heavy burden on this team; he has to be the #1 scoring option and he also has to be the #1 playmaker at getting others involved. CJ could help Dame and ease the burden a little, but he's simply not doing it and Stotts isn't holding CJ accountable

 

[beast blazer]

Cj is a defensive liability. No one questions that. But a volume shooter who gets so few assists and whose ts% is below that of the team as a whole is not really helping the offense. You could argue he's a liability on both ends.