Toobin: Obama healthcare reform law 'in grave, grave trouble'

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Denny Crane

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http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-brief...-healthcare-reform-law-in-grave-grave-trouble

A top legal analyst predicted Tuesday that the Obama administration's healthcare reform legislation seemed likely to be struck down by the Supreme Court.

Jeffrey Toobin, a lawyer and legal analyst, who writes about legal topics for The New Yorker said the law looked to be in "trouble." He called it a "trainwreck for the Obama administration."

"This law looks like it's going to be struck down. I'm telling you, all of the predictions, including mine, that the justices would not have a problem with this law were wrong," Toobin said Tuesday on CNN. "I think this law is in grave, grave trouble."

Toobin's observation came on the second day of oral arguments at the Supreme Court over the constitutionality of the Affordable Care Act.

Earlier that day, Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy, who could be the deciding vote on whether to uphold the law, told Solicitor General Donald Verrilli that there appeared to be a "very heavy burden of justification" on aspects of the law, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Toobin described Kennedy as "enormously skeptical" during the arguments Tuesday.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) said tough questions from the justices did not indicate how the court would rule and took to task a legal analyst who said otherwise.

“I’ve been in court a lot more than Jeffrey Toobin and I had arguments, federal, circuit, Supreme Court and hundreds of times before trial courts,” Reid said. “And the questions you get from the judges doesn’t mean that’s what’s going to wind up with the opinion.”
 
http://dailycaller.com/2012/03/27/justice-scalia-to-obamas-solicitor-general-were-not-stupid/

While Solicitor General Donald Verrilli, Jr. made the Obama administration’s case for the constitutionality of the individual mandate in the health-care law Tuesday, Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia interrupted, telling Verrilli, “we’re not stupid.”

Justice Elena Kagan, a former solicitor general appointed by President Obama to the high court, sided with Verilli in arguing that young people should be required by the federal government to purchase health insurance because eventually, others will subsidize their health care in the future.

Scalia shot back, arguing that young people will make the decision to buy health insurance eventually and do not need to be forced by the federal government to engage in commerce.

The transcript of the exchange is below:

GENERAL VERILLI: To live in the modern world, everybody needs a telephone. And the — the same thing with respect to the — you know, the dairy price supports that — that the Court upheld in Wrightwood Dairy and Rock Royal. You can look at those as disadvantageous contracts, as forced transfers, that — you know, I suppose it’s theoretically true that you could raise your kids without milk, but the reality is you’ve got to go to the store and buy milk. And the commerce power — as a result of the exercise of the commerce power, you’re subsidizing somebody else –

JUSTICE KAGAN: And this is especially true, isn’t it, General –

GENERAL VERRILLI: — because that’s the judgment Congress has made.

JUSTICE KAGAN: — Verrilli, because in this context, the subsidizers eventually become the subsidized?

GENERAL VERRILLI: Well, that was the point I was trying to make, Justice Kagan, that you’re young and healthy one day, but you don’t stay that way. And the — the system works over time. And so I just don’t think it’s a fair characterization of it. And it does get back to, I think — a problem I think is important to understand –

JUSTICE SCALIA: We’re not stupid. They’re going to buy insurance later. They’re young and — and need the money now.

GENERAL VERRILLI: But that’s –
 
Kagan helped write the law, nice to see her at least trying to coach the SG into what he should say in front of the USSC. How she won't step aside is hilarious, isn't it?
 
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/201...stions-on-obamacare-at-supreme-court-hearing/

Health care law endures tough questioning from swing justice at Supreme Court showdown

The man often known as the Supreme Court's swing justice posed tough questions about the scope of the controversial health care overhaul Tuesday, suggesting he might have doubts about its validity.

Justice Anthony Kennedy did not fully tip his hand as to how he might ultimately vote in the case -- leaving all sides to ruminate for the next few months until an expected summer ruling.

On this most important day of arguments for the landmark case, most of the high court bench was thoroughly engaged for a two-hour debate over the constitutional merits of President Obama's health care law. Based on the tenor of Tuesday's arguments, the justices appeared to be closely divided and this case, as do so many other close ones at the high court, may ultimately come down to Kennedy's vote.

Early in the arguments, the veteran justice cut to the heart of the debate over the so-called individual mandate -- which was the focus of Tuesday's hearing -- asking the federal government's attorney to explain what constitutional power the government had to force all Americans to obtain health insurance.

"Can you create commerce to regulate it?" Kennedy asked Solicitor General Don Verrilli.

That question addressed the key issue about whether Congress exceeded its regulatory authority under the Commerce Clause, which gives the federal government the power to pass laws governing economic activity among the states. Verrilli said that's not happening with the mandate; rather it is a regulation of a pre-existing health care marketplace.

Later, Kennedy described the law as unique and said the mandate "is different from what we have in previous cases -- and that changes the relationship of the federal government to the individual in the very fundamental way."

He acknowledged the Court normally gives Congress the benefit of the doubt on laws that it passes, but in this instance there was a "heavy burden of justification" necessary for supporters of ObamaCare to prove its legal worth. He also wondered about what limits to federal power would be in place if the court signed off on law.
What's not clear is if the answers provided by Verrilli about the narrowness of the law, or much else, satisfied Kennedy's apparent doubts.

The comments and questions from the other justices generally suggested they would fall along familiar ideological divisions. If that ultimately happens, it will be a 5-4 decision on this fundamental issue that will determine the law's fate.

At the start of his arguments, repeatedly interrupted by a scratchy throat, Verrilli plainly stated that "the Affordable Care Act addresses a fundamental and enduring problem in our health care system and our economy." That problem the ACA attempts to fix is the ability of insurance companies to drop or deny coverage based on preexisting medical conditions or other reasons.

The government's fix involved a requirement that all Americans obtain health insurance. This solved two problems for lawmakers. It would lead to health coverage for all people-a major issue for the president's base -- and it also covers the increased insurance costs by forcing these newly insured people, including many healthy people with minimal health care needs, into the system.

"So the mandate is forcing these people to provide a huge subsidy to the insurance companies for other purposes that the act wishes to serve," Justice Samuel Alito said.

But Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg likened the ACA to the Social Security Act, which the Court ruled constitutional, as an example of where younger healthy people cover the payouts for older and infirm Americans.
In this context, she offered a simple explanation for that practice: "If you're going to have insurance, that's how insurance works."

It's also an area that Justice Elena Kagan touched upon. "And this is especially true, isn't it, General Verrilli, because in this context, the subsidizers eventually become the subsidized?" she asked.

Verrilli agreed, saying people never know when they'll need coverage.

It was an answer Justice Antonin Scalia jumped on.

"We're not stupid. They're going to buy insurance later. They're young and need the money now. When they think they have a substantial risk of incurring high medical bills, they'll buy insurance, like the rest of us," he said.
Unlike Scalia and Alito who were more animated with their comments expressing doubt about the law's validity, Chief Justice John Roberts plainly offered some of his own concerns that at times mirrored Kennedy's.

He used the phrase "all bets are off" twice when talking about the ways future Congresses will attempt to fix perceived problems if the law survives. "There's this health care market.

Everybody's in it. So we can regulate it, and we're going to look at a particular serious problem, which is how people pay for it. But next year, they can decide everybody's in this market, we're going to look at a different problem now, and this is how we're going to regulate it. And we can compel people to do things -- purchase insurance, in this case. Something else in the next case, because you've -- we've accepted the argument that this is a market in which everybody participates."

Some of the justices wondered whether the government could compel people to exercise, eat broccoli or buy certain cars if the mandate is upheld. Verrilli maintained that wouldn't be the case.

"The (health insurance) market is regulated at the federal level in very significant ways already," Verrilli told the chief justice. "The question is, is there a limit to the authority that we're advocating here under the commerce power, and the answer is yes, because we are not advocating for a power that would allow Congress to compel purchases."

The government's defense of the ACA also relied upon the Constitution's Necessary and Proper Clause and taxing power. Those issues did briefly come up during the two-hour long arguments but were very much overshadowed by the debate over the mandate's relationship to federal authority in regulating commerce.

Justice Clarence Thomas, as is his custom, did not speak in the courtroom. But his views on the expansion of the Commerce Clause have been clearly articulated in past cases where he objected to increased federal power. Based on those writings, it is widely assumed that he will similarly object to the scheme presented here.

Lawyers for the 26 states opposed to ObamaCare and the National Federation of Independent Businesses also faced tough questions from the justices. But by the time each took the lectern in the second hour of arguments, the Court's direction seemed clear.

For the second day in a row, Attorney General Eric Holder and Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius were in the courtroom. A number of prominent lawmakers from Capitol Hill were also in attendance. Sen. Patrick Leahy, D-Vt., chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee and major supporter of the law, looked concerned over the questions Kennedy asked.

Wednesday's final day of arguments will be split into two sessions. The first will examine whether the rest of the ACA is severable from the individual mandate if the high court strikes down that provision. The last case looks at the law's provision to expand Medicaid coverage. The challenging states call that part of the law coercive.
 
I guess the insurance companies will have to figure out to buy politicians who are competent enough to craft legislation to line their pockets and that's constitutional.
 
Denny, I haven't read your posts all the way thru, but I thought one telling argument was made by Justice Scalia. Verrilli was saying that nothing compares to the forced purchase of this commodity as it's the one and only thing all people eventually need. Scalia noted that this wasn't true. That everyone dies and has some sort of burial- be it cremation or in the ground. Verrilli stated that Scalia's argument was false as everyone can afford their own funeral. Scalia skewered him on that remark.

The sad thing to me is that the law is clearly unconstitutional and yet, one again, the justices on the other side of the issue are going to vote along party lines and not judge true constitutionality of the law. That's why I like Sutter and Kennedy. They tend to be very non political. The rest of the justices seem to have their minds made up based on political ideology.
 
The pundits have been saying they expect one of Scalia, Kennedy, or Roberts to be a likely vote for the mandate.

The first article is one of those pundits say, "holy shit, boy was I wrong."

The mandate is unprecedented. Congress has never forced everyone to buy an industry's product, nor has it used the IRS to enforce the purchase of a specific product.

This should be a 9-0 vote with the four democrats writing something like, "while we may agree with the idea and what congress was trying to do, this was an unconstitutional way of achieving the desired ends."

The pundits are predicting the democrats will vote for the mandate. But they could be wrong. They should be wrong.
 
So if the mandate is struck down does the whole thing fall apart?
 
Truly socialized government run healthcare will be the eventual result of this being (correctly) struck down.

A win-win for Americans.
 
So if the mandate is struck down does the whole thing fall apart?

That's one of the things the court will consider. They added extra time for the states and Obama administration to argue the rest of the law.

But Democrats who wrote and passed the law say that the mandate is required and the rest of the law can't work. People will just not buy insurance until they get sick.
 
So if the mandate is struck down does the whole thing fall apart?

Probably. The theory of 'severability' allows the court to strike down a portion of a law and leave the remaining if what they strike down has little to no effect on the law as a whole. Verrilli has argued (And by the way, he's really taken his beat down like a man. He's in a losing position and despite all the help the libs on the court are giving him, he is just being roasted alive by the right and moderates on the court. Good stuff.) that the mandatory purchase of the commodity by all people and the fact the feds are forcing the states to either pay about $2 billion more each for extended Medicaid coverages or lose the fed portion all together are just minor aspects of the overall bill. The states are arguing that both those aspects are the financial pillars of the plan and it needs to be struck down in total and have Congress rework it all.

The constitutional facts argue for scrapping the entire bill. However, Justice Kagan has played a part in the original bill and the smart money is that in deference to her the court will strike down the forced commodity purchase and forced state medicaid money aspects and leave the rest in tact as a compromise decision.
 
Now that government can't force us to buy insurance, there goes the auto insurance industry.

Now that government can't make some people subsidize a service that they don't use, that ends war, police, prisons, the Defense Dept., and the CIA.
 
Now that government can't force us to buy insurance, there goes the auto insurance industry.

Now that government can't make some people subsidize a service that they don't use, that ends war, police, prisons, the Defense Dept., and the CIA.

If only Obama had made this a tax, there wouldn't have been any problems and we'd have a single payer national health care plan, all the health insurance companies would closing and many people would be happy and many unhappy.
 
Alright! Another convert to socialism.
 
Alright! Another convert to socialism.

If you're taking about me, I think you misread my post.

Personally, I'd like to see us have a king that makes all decisions, but has to remain in power via a vote of the people every 5 years.
 
Now that government can't force us to buy insurance, there goes the auto insurance industry.

Now that government can't make some people subsidize a service that they don't use, that ends war, police, prisons, the Defense Dept., and the CIA.

People who don't have cars aren't required to have auto insurance. That's not even a subtle difference. :-)

About 15 years ago, the insurance commissioner in California suggested $.05 per gallon tax to pay for state run no-fault insurance. A much better way to achieve the goal. And those who drive the most pay the most, which makes sense.
 
About 15 years ago, the insurance commissioner in California suggested $.05 per gallon tax to pay for state run no-fault insurance. A much better way to achieve the goal. And those who drive the most pay the most, which makes sense.

As you deceitfully know, that would ruin the feeling of individual responsibility, so Republicans struck his trial balloon down.

Anyway, when the Supremes rule against the young subsidizing the old, it will open a thousand lawsuits. I can't wait to not have to pay for all the government activities I oppose. This will be great. We liberals owe you conservatives a big thank you.
 
As you deceitfully know, that would ruin the feeling of individual responsibility, so Republicans struck his trial balloon down.

Anyway, when the Supremes rule against the young subsidizing the old, it will open a thousand lawsuits. I can't wait to not have to pay for all the government activities I oppose. This will be great. We liberals owe you conservatives a big thank you.

No disrespect intended, but you're making zero sense.
 
Conservatives on the Court argue against government forcing insurance purchases, since supposedly, young people don't want to. Government makes me pay car insurance. After my divorce, government made my ex-wife and me pay for our kid's health insurance (even when I had none myself for years, needing it much more, so I could pay for his unused insurance). This is routine in divorces.

I'm sure that there are more standard examples. They will all become class action lawsuits if the conservatives win on this. And so will cases of forced taxation. The latter may lose, but thousands of litigators will try for years.

What a mess the Republicans want to create.
 
When you buy a house, you have to buy title insurance. The bank makes you buy home insurance. When the fucking government forced my brother and me to sell my deceased parents' house, the Court ordered us to first buy home insurance.

I'm sure there are many things that will now be litigated, whether or not they win. This opens a can of worms.
 
Now that government can't force us to buy insurance, there goes the auto insurance industry.

Now that government can't make some people subsidize a service that they don't use, that ends war, police, prisons, the Defense Dept., and the CIA.

Auto insurance falls under individual state constitutions, not the federal constitution. I wouldn't expect you to know the difference between the two, and how mandates apply in each state versus a federal mandate.
 
Conservatives on the Court argue against government forcing insurance purchases, since supposedly, young people don't want to. Government makes me pay car insurance. After my divorce, government made my ex-wife and me pay for our kid's health insurance (even when I had none myself for years, needing it much more, so I could pay for his unused insurance). This is routine in divorces.

I'm sure that there are more standard examples. They will all become class action lawsuits if the conservatives win on this. And so will cases of forced taxation. The latter may lose, but thousands of litigators will try for years.

What a mess the Republicans want to create.

Somebody could use a basic Civics 101 course, and the difference between local and state laws, and federal laws.
 
People who don't have cars aren't required to have auto insurance. That's not even a subtle difference. :-)

About 15 years ago, the insurance commissioner in California suggested $.05 per gallon tax to pay for state run no-fault insurance. A much better way to achieve the goal. And those who drive the most pay the most, which makes sense.

It's irrelevant, anyhow, because it's a state mandate, and not a federal mandate, that requires a citizen of a state to purchase vehicle insurance if they own a car. Your car is registered with the state, and falls under the jurisdiction of the state.
 
Conservatives on the Court argue against government forcing insurance purchases, since supposedly, young people don't want to. Government makes me pay car insurance. After my divorce, government made my ex-wife and me pay for our kid's health insurance (even when I had none myself for years, needing it much more, so I could pay for his unused insurance). This is routine in divorces.

I'm sure that there are more standard examples. They will all become class action lawsuits if the conservatives win on this. And so will cases of forced taxation. The latter may lose, but thousands of litigators will try for years.

What a mess the Republicans want to create.

To blame this on the GOP is what makes no sense. You are stating that in all 50 states the mandate to purchase auto insurance is fueled by the GOP and therefore is their "fault"? That's laughably insane on all possible levels.

The fact of the matter is, you're missed the boat on this entire discussion and are trying to manufacture some sort of blame on republicans. That's very disingenuous.

This isn't a democrat or republican issue. People who view the world and every aspect of it thru political eyes based on the notion that everything they don't like is the fault of some political party is both comical and flat out wrong.

This is a constitutional issue as to whether or not the federal government, regardless of political party, can mandate all citizens (with a few notable exceptions) purchase a commodity of the government or face monetary penalties. If so, it's a precedent setting power being granted to the federal government. This particular bill is being used to determine if the over riding issue is constitutional or not.

It has nothing to do with your auto insurance, divorce, child support, heath care for the kids in a divorce... and even less to do with either political party.

It's also not a mandate on national health care.

Honestly, you people who view the world (how much you get paid, the price of gas, divorce, cost of toilet paper...) solely in terms of political parties really makes the rest of us scratch our heads.
 
Wow.

Just wow.

For 3 days the solicitor general for the government just had his ass flamed broiled and served up with special sauce. I've followed Supreme Court cases for 35 years and I can't ever recall a friggin' beat down like this one. He limped away like a guy who just had a vasectomy without anesthesia. I hope he gets a bonus for this. geeze, his name is marked forever as a poor soldier who had to crap and pee in a bucket and eat it with a big spoon.

Good-by Obamacare.

I get the thinking behind it and really liked some parts of it, but, it was a severely unconstitutional bill and had to be dealt with.
 
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It's looking like a foregone conclusion that the mandate will be struck down. The democrats on the court are now trying to keep the whole "law" from being tossed out by the court; if there was a chance the mandate would stand, they'd be arguing for it still.
 
It's looking like a foregone conclusion that the mandate will be struck down. The democrats on the court are now trying to keep the whole "law" from being tossed out by the court; if there was a chance the mandate would stand, they'd be arguing for it still.

[video=youtube;hV-05TLiiLU]
 
The Democrats should use my argument. State governments require insurance purchases in many different situations. If the Supremes rule it unconstitutional for the Federal government to do the same, it will open a can of worms with a hundred lawsuits in every state tying up courts for years.

Therefore, it's better for the Court to stick with precedent. Remember when Republicans used to campaign that judges should just enforce tradition and not write radical departures from precedent? Strict constructionism.

If you Democrats are reading this and need my help, I charge less than a lawyer. Well, not much less. We'll see. Show me the bucks and I'll decide.
 
The Democrats should use my argument. State governments require insurance purchases in many different situations. If the Supremes rule it unconstitutional for the Federal government to do the same, it will open a can of worms with a hundred lawsuits in every state tying up courts for years.

Therefore, it's better for the Court to stick with precedent. Remember when Republicans used to campaign that judges should just enforce tradition and not write radical departures from precedent? Strict constructionism.

If you Democrats are reading this and need my help, I charge less than a lawyer. Well, not much less. We'll see. Show me the bucks and I'll decide.

Again, there is a difference between the US Constitution, which doesn't allow mandates, and state laws/constitutions that allow mandates for their citizens.

Although based on the Obama attorneys' performances the past week, you'd probably have just as much luck arguing your absurd and irrelevant point.

I have to assume that you're just trying to look stupid at this point for shits and grins?
 
Again, this sensation could cause Democrats to push for Federal and State to become consistent with each other. I'm not saying they'll win, but it might take up court time over the years in various states.

Is this I Can't Read Week at your orphanage remedial school? Get Mr. Stoutjack to read it to you.
 

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