Trade Deadline Predictions

[BonesJones]

teams couldn't leave barnes or lee open from three without paying the price. lee is above average at the very least and barnes was excellent as a warrior before becoming the focal point of the hapless mavs. he often shared the floor as small ball 4 with livingston and iguidala two 3pt challenged teamates. he would be a 2/3 option who still is a willing ball mover.

Barnes is a below-average 3pt shooter (who's shooting worse than Connaughton, Harkless, and Aminu). Teams could definitely live with a 34% 3pt shooter jacking up 3s.

They would leave Barnes, not Lee, but even if the left Lee, Lee isn't gonna be a guy to put pressure on a scrambling defense like CJ would. Barnes defense isn't good either, so we don't get any better on that end (we're already good) and our offense suffers. Barnes a willing passer? He can move the ball but he gets less assists Per 36 than CJ..

 

[Boob-No-More]

No way in hell would anyone give up a first for Ed Davis....?

Per 36: 11PPG, 13RPG (5ORPG), good defense, could finisher around the rim.

That type of big is crucial to have off the bench for a contender. Much more crucial than drafting the next Caleb Swanigan, Tony Bradley, or Anzejs Pasecniks.

I think CLE would LOVE to have Ed Davis backing up Thompson and Love.

Jae Crowder has not been a good fit in CLE. I wonder if they would do a straight swap of Crowder for Davis (it works salary wise). Part of the problem is CLE has been forcing Crowder to play PF. Davis would be much better for them in that role and moving Crowder back to his natural SF position may return his production to what it was in BOS the past two seasons.

CLE would get a real back up big man and we'd get a real starting SF.

BNM

 

[lawai'a]

barnes is a much better and above average 3pt shooter on assisted threes. i still doubt that he alone would make us better as i stated but you are undervaluing what his impact would be here as a second/third option. is he the scorer/shooter that CJ is? of course not. is he a significant upgrade at SF? of course he is.

 

[BrunoSOC]

I'd really like to keep him, but I'm not sure it's practical, or even possible. It would really suck to lose him just because other guys are grotesquely overpaid and under producing. The guy plays hard, he plays smart and he's been the consummate teammate. I'm a Shabazz fan.

BNM

I really like him. I think he's the perfect back up PG for us.

 

[Scalma]

I'm not saying they would give up a first for Vonleh straight up. Here's how I evaluate Napier, Vonleh, and Davis according to following picks.

15th: 2.0
Napier: 1.9
20th: 1.6
Davis: 1.4
25th: 1.3
30th: 1.2
Vonleh: 1.0

Vonleh+Davis+Napier=4.30
Three ~25th picks = 3.9
Two ~15th picks = 4.0

So Vonleh isn't as valuable as the 30th pick, but including him in a trade should could help us get more in return.

No way in hell would anyone give up a first for Ed Davis....?

Per 36: 11PPG, 13RPG (5ORPG), good defense, could finisher around the rim.

That type of big is crucial to have off the bench for a contender. Much more crucial than drafting the next Caleb Swanigan, Tony Bradley, or Anzejs Pasecniks.

Or the next Kyle Kuzma, Nicolas Batum, or Rudy Gobert.

Draft picks are valuable, especially with so many teams without cap space. No one is going to give one up for a couple months of a role player.

 

[Boob-No-More]

I really like him. I think he's the perfect back up PG for us.

But someone may offer him starting PG money. Then we're screwed.

BNM

 

[riverman]

For who? Serious question.

Boogie - headcase in his 8th year in the league and still hasn't played for a winning team.

Blake - asshole that's always injured.

Paul George - half season rental who we would all hate when he leaves us for the Lakers.

Anthony Davis - sure, but he's also always injured and we can't outbid BOS.

Who is a practical target that would actually make us better?

BNM

DeRozan, Greek Freak, Bradley Beal there are players who would be interesting additions

 

[Scalma]

DeRozan, Greek Freak, Bradley Beal there are players who would be interesting additions

So would Lebron. He’d be interesting.

 

[tlongII]

If we trade Shabazz we’ll be worse this year. We might get a nice asset for the future, but that’s it.

 

[BonesJones]

I think CLE would LOVE to have Ed Davis backing up Thompson and Love.

Jae Crowder has not been a good fit in CLE. I wonder if they would do a straight swap of Crowder for Davis (it works salary wise). Part of the problem is CLE has been forcing Crowder to play PF. Davis would be much better for them in that role and moving Crowder back to his natural SF position may return his production to what it was in BOS the past two seasons.

CLE would get a real back up big man and we'd get a real starting SF.

BNM

Holy hell I would love trade. A lot of people know I'm a huge Crowder fan. He's under contract for this season plus two more at around $7M per year.

Aminu+Crowder for ~$14M a year combined? Very solid and bang for the buck.

 

[BonesJones]

If we trade Shabazz we’ll be worse this year. We might get a nice asset for the future, but that’s it.

Hopefully we'd add a good wing which would negate that. However, we could greatly improve the future while taking a slight hit now compared to staying the same and taking a big blow in the future.

 

[ripcityboy]

If we trade Shabazz we’ll be worse this year. We might get a nice asset for the future, but that’s it.

I'd rather get a future asset for someone we are probably going to lose anyway. I also think that Shabazz deserves a chance to start somewhere. He won't get thst here.

 

[BonesJones]

Or the next Kyle Kuzma, Nicolas Batum, or Rudy Gobert.

Draft picks are valuable, especially with so many teams without cap space. No one is going to give one up for a couple months of a role player.

Yes, it's easy to pick out the 1 guy that went in the 20s this year and say "That's why late firsts are so valuable", when in reality, a team's very unlikely to land anyone of that caliber, while contenders likely won't give those guys enough PT to develop. Notice how all those guys were drafted by rebuilding, non-playoff teams at the time.

Also, Ed Davis is shown to be loyal. Do you really think he'd leave CLE or BOS? That team would trade for him with the likelihood that he resigns, which is high.

 

[Scalma]

Yes, it's easy to pick out the 1 guy that went in the 20s this year and say "That's why late firsts are so valuable", when in reality, a team's very unlikely to land anyone of that caliber, while contenders likely won't give those guys enough PT to develop. Notice how all those guys were drafted by rebuilding, non-playoff teams at the time.

Also, Ed Davis is shown to be loyal. Do you really think he'd leave CLE or BOS? That team would trade for him with the likelihood that he resigns, which is high.

Yes it was easy. Didn’t even have to look it up.

And Davis wouldn’t be worth a first even if he was locked up long term, you’re delusional.

Tell me the last time someone of his caliber landed a first.

 

[BonesJones]

Yes it was easy. Didn’t even have to look it up.

And Davis wouldn’t be worth a first even if he was locked up long term, you’re delusional.

Tell me the last time someone of his caliber landed a first.

Don't call me delusional cupcake.

Last time someone of that caliber landed a 1st? Mason Plumlee.

 

[Scalma]

Don't call me delusional cupcake.

Last time someone of that caliber landed a 1st? Mason Plumlee.

Don’t want to be called delusional? Don’t be delusional. Then again I’ll have a good laugh when you see the actual return on Davis, if he gets traded.

Plumlee? The guy that was starting over Davis?

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

Turner and Harkless for Joaquin Noah and Lee. We get the best player in the deal and get rid of Turner. NY gets a 3 year younger guy who does better in the east. We take on the terrible contract of Noah since we get the best player. Maybe we can get a draft pick also.
Davis and Napier for Crowder and Calderon.
These deals would make us better now, but we would still be just above average and it might make us worse in the future.

 

[Scalma]

I think Jabari Parker should be our main target. The most realistic young talent that’s (probably) available.

Mirotic is more realistic overall, but if there’s any chance at Parker, I’d hold out.

 

[BonesJones]

Don’t want to be called delusional? Don’t be delusional. Then again I’ll have a good laugh when you see the actual return on Davis, if he gets traded.

Plumlee? The guy that was starting over Davis?

Do you really think Plumlee is better than Davis?

Plumlees passing fit on the court better with Dame and CJ. Davis' energy is better off the bench. They're as productive as each other. And Plumlee netted the 20th pick and Nurkic, while I'm suggesting trading Davis for a pick between 25-30.

You're the one who is delusional, like always (wanna talk about Crabbe...?). Dont start shit because you overvalue the worth of a late 1st round picks. Lets look at the 2010 through 2014 drafts for picks 25-30 (More recent drafts have many still developing players) and see how many players are better than Davis, since you obviously haven't done your research.

2010:
25. Dominique Jones - NO
26. Quincy Pondexter- NO
27. Jordan Crawford - NO
28. Greivas Vasquez - NO
29. Daniel Orton - NO
30. Lazar Hayward - NO

2011:
25. MarShon Brooks - NO
26. Jordan Hamilton - NO
27. Jajuan Johnson - NO
28. Norris Cole - NO
29. Cory Joseph - EVEN
30. Jimmy Butler- YES

2012:
25. Tony Wroten - NO
26. Miles Plumlee - NO
27. Arnett Moultrie - NO
28. Perry Jones III - NO
29. Marquis Teague - NO
30. Festus Ezeli - NO

2013:
25. Reggie Bullock - NO
26. Andre Roberson - EVEN
27. Rudy Gobert - YES
28. Livio Jean-Charles - NO
29. Archie Goodwin - NO
30. Nemanja Nedovic - NO

2014:
26: P.J. Hairston - NO
27. Bogdan Bogdanovic - Slight NO, maybe EVEN
28. C.J. Wilcox - NO
29. Josh Huestis - NO
30. Kyle Anderson - EVEN?

So out of 30 picks, you have:
2 players that are definitely better than Davis,
23 players that are definitely worse than Davis
5 players that are debatable

So a team contending for a championship who could use another big man off the bench and has an injury exception which fits Davis' contract perfectly wouldn't EVER give up a pick in that range for him? And you're calling me the delusional one?

 

[BonesJones]

Revising my predictions:
One Trade:
CLE Gets: Davis, Napier
CHI Gets: Turner, 2018 POR 1st, 2019 MIN/LAL 2nd
POR Gets: Mirotic, Crowder, 2018 CLE 1st

Lillard (36) / McCollum (12)
McCollum (24) / Pat (16) / Crowder (8)
Crowder (20) / Harkless (18) / Aminu (10)
Aminu (20) / Mirotic (28) / Vonleh
Nurkic (32) / Collins (16)

 

[BonesJones]

Hell no to Jabari Parker. We can't pay him $20M. His production before his injury might be been worth it but his production after plus his injury concerns aren't worth it. We'd be much more fucked than we already are.

 

[AFully22]

Hell no to Jabari Parker. We can't pay him $20M. His production before his injury might be been worth it but his production after plus his injury concerns aren't worth it. We'd be much more fucked than we already are.

If Jabari was going to get 20m a year I’d say hell no too, but with his injury history I highly doubt he does. If all goes well he could have the next “curry contract” where in 3 years you’re wondering how the hell a player of his caliber is getting paid what he is.

You would make the trade only after putting feelers out for what type of market he would have this offseason. So if the move is made I’m sure that will have happened.

Edit: In comparison that’s pretty much what Ibaka got last offseason, there’s no way Parker gets Ibaka money.

 

[BonesJones]

If Jabari was going to get 20m a year I’d say hell no too, but with his injury history I highly doubt he does. If all goes well he could have the next “curry contract” where in 3 years you’re wondering how the hell a player of his caliber is getting paid what he is.

You would make the trade only after putting feelers out for what type of market he would have this offseason. So if the move is made I’m sure that will have happened.

Edit: In comparison that’s pretty much what Ibaka got last offseason, there’s no way Parker gets Ibaka money.

If Brooklyn is willing to take Allen Crabbe for $18M a year, they're more than willing to give Jabari Parker $20M

 

[Strenuus]

If Brooklyn is willing to take Allen Crabbe for $18M a year, they're more than willing to give Jabari Parker $20M

Why? Was Crabbe as injured as Parker?

 

[AFully22]

If Brooklyn is willing to take Allen Crabbe for $18M a year, they're more than willing to give Jabari Parker $20M

A team looking to build off of young talent and build through the draft isn’t going to want to tie down 20m a yr on a player with an injury history like Parker. I also don’t think you’ll see teams, even Brooklyn, spending so recklessly for a good while.

 

[Scalma]

Do you really think Plumlee is better than Davis?

Plumlees passing fit on the court better with Dame and CJ. Davis' energy is better off the bench. They're as productive as each other. And Plumlee netted the 20th pick and Nurkic, while I'm suggesting trading Davis for a pick between 25-30.

You're the one who is delusional, like always (wanna talk about Crabbe...?). Dont start shit because you overvalue the worth of a late 1st round picks. Lets look at the 2010 through 2014 drafts for picks 25-30 (More recent drafts have many still developing players) and see how many players are better than Davis, since you obviously haven't done your research.

2010:
25. Dominique Jones - NO
26. Quincy Pondexter- NO
27. Jordan Crawford - NO
28. Greivas Vasquez - NO
29. Daniel Orton - NO
30. Lazar Hayward - NO

2011:
25. MarShon Brooks - NO
26. Jordan Hamilton - NO
27. Jajuan Johnson - NO
28. Norris Cole - NO
29. Cory Joseph - EVEN
30. Jimmy Butler- YES

2012:
25. Tony Wroten - NO
26. Miles Plumlee - NO
27. Arnett Moultrie - NO
28. Perry Jones III - NO
29. Marquis Teague - NO
30. Festus Ezeli - NO

2013:
25. Reggie Bullock - NO
26. Andre Roberson - EVEN
27. Rudy Gobert - YES
28. Livio Jean-Charles - NO
29. Archie Goodwin - NO
30. Nemanja Nedovic - NO

2014:
26: P.J. Hairston - NO
27. Bogdan Bogdanovic - Slight NO, maybe EVEN
28. C.J. Wilcox - NO
29. Josh Huestis - NO
30. Kyle Anderson - EVEN?

So out of 30 picks, you have:
2 players that are definitely better than Davis,
23 players that are definitely worse than Davis
5 players that are debatable

So a team contending for a championship who could use another big man off the bench and has an injury exception which fits Davis' contract perfectly wouldn't EVER give up a pick in that range for him? And you're calling me the delusional one?

Do I think Plumlee is better than Davis? Yes. That’s why he was starting over him. And that was a special case anyway. Denver had a surplus of picks. They also knew they’d control Plumlee’s long term future. No team has that certainty with Davis, no matter how “loyal,” or whatever assumption you made, is.

“Wanna talk about Crabbe”

Is that supposed to be some sort of dig? I’m still waiting on someone replacing his production. Y’all said it would be easy. Well, season is almost half way through and the only thing I can say is the team was better with Crabbe.

And I’ll be sure to bump this expose of yours after we see the return on Ed.

Better yet, let’s actually make this worth our time. Put money where your mouth is and bet that we’ll get a first for Davis if he gets traded (solo)

 

[Scalma]

Hell no to Jabari Parker. We can't pay him $20M. His production before his injury might be been worth it but his production after plus his injury concerns aren't worth it. We'd be much more fucked than we already are.

What is his production after his injury? He hasn’t even played yet.

And if someone is paying Jabari $20m, something went really well this year. And I’d much rather pay that Jabari $20m than Carmelo near $30m.

 

[Boob-No-More]

“Wanna talk about Crabbe”

Is that supposed to be some sort of dig? I’m still waiting on someone replacing his production. Y’all said it would be easy. Well, season is almost half way through and the only thing I can say is the team was better with Crabbe.

No, the team was not better last year with Crabbe.

This year after 39 games: 21-18 = .538

Last year after 39 games: 16-39 = .410

Last year after 81 games: 41-41= .500

At no point last year was our record better than it is now, and the only reason we finished at .500 was Nurk was an absolute beast in the 20 games he played for POR last year - much better than he's been in the first 39 games this year.

Crabbe's production has been more than replaced, not by some new acquisition, but from within. Crabbe's minutes have been divided between Napier and Connaughton. They have replaced his scoring and both are better defenders, who are also better rebounders and better at creating for themselves and others.

BNM

 

[Scalma]

No, the team was not better last year with Crabbe.

This year after 39 games: 21-18 = .538

Last year after 39 games: 16-39 = .410

Last year after 81 games: 41-41= .500

At no point last year was our record better than it is now, and the only reason we finished at .500 was Nurk was an absolute beast in the 20 games he played for POR last year - much better than he's been in the first 39 games this year.

Crabbe's production has been more than replaced, not by some new acquisition, but from within. Crabbe's minutes have been divided between Napier and Connaughton. They have replaced his scoring and both are better defenders, who are also better rebounders and better at creating for themselves and others.

BNM

Oh God it’s Allen’s ex. Having a better record at this point compared to last year isn’t indicative of anything, but you know that so stop being dishonest and actually come with something worthwhile. The offense isn’t as good as it was last year. Teams are daring guys like Turner to shoot. Lately hes shot better so the offense has flowed. Nurk was better last year because Crabbe would be in the corner instead of Evan or Moe or whoever it is this year. Teams couldn’t slide under him. It’s not a coincidence. The few times Pat has a good game the offense flows. So you can bang your head against the wall and try to convince everyone that the team doesn’t miss him, but I’ll stick with reality.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Oh God it’s Allen’s ex. Having a better record at this point compared to last year isn’t indicative of anything, but you know that so stop being dishonest and actually come with something worthwhile. The offense isn’t as good as it was last year. Teams are daring guys like Turner to shoot. Lately hes shot better so the offense has flowed. Nurk was better last year because Crabbe would be in the corner instead of Evan or Moe or whoever it is this year. Teams couldn’t slide under him. It’s not a coincidence. The few times Pat has a good game the offense flows. So you can bang your head against the wall and try to convince everyone that the team doesn’t miss him, but I’ll stick with reality.

Talk about being dishonest, you completely ignored half of the game, the half Crabbe really and truly sucks at - defense. Last year, we were one of the worst defensive teams in the league and Crabbe was the worst defender in our rotation.

You want to give Crabbe credit for how good our offense was last year, then you also need to give him blame for how bad the defense was.

The guy is, was, and will always be a one-dimensional streaky shooter who can't create for himself or others. He is a disinterested lackadaisical defender and a defensive liability. His play in POR proved it and his play in BRK further proves it. What more evidence do you need?

I will gladly give Crabbe's minutes to Napier and Connaughton. Gladly.

You also ignored that our final record last year, even with the Nurk honeymoon was .500. We are currently at .538 and Stott's teams have historically played better in the second half of the season.

As far as missing Crabbe's spacing, Al-Farouq Aminu is shooting a higher 3FG% than Crabbe this year and he's making more 3-pointers this year than Crabbe did last year. Aminu has made at least five 3-pointers in a game five times this season, and that;'s in just 26 games played. Crabbe has only done it twice this year (in 36 games played) and only did it four times all of last season (in 79 games played).

That's the thing with Stott's system (and playing next to Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum) - everyone else will get plenty of wide open looks. Crabbe benefited from that while he was in POR, but this year in BRK he has truly been exposed as someone who cannot create his own shot. Team's play up tighter on him and he can't go around the defense and make them pay. His 3FG% is actually below league average without the benefit of defenses keying on Dame and C.J.

BNM