Trade Deadline Predictions

[UKRAINEFAN]

Revising my predictions:
One Trade:
CLE Gets: Davis, Napier
CHI Gets: Turner, 2018 POR 1st, 2019 MIN/LAL 2nd
POR Gets: Mirotic, Crowder, 2018 CLE 1st

Lillard (36) / McCollum (12)
McCollum (24) / Pat (16) / Crowder (8)
Crowder (20) / Harkless (18) / Aminu (10)
Aminu (20) / Mirotic (28) / Vonleh
Nurkic (32) / Collins (16)

That looks more like a wish than a prediction.

 

[Scalma]

Talk about being dishonest, you completely ignored half of the game, the half Crabbe really and truly sucks at - defense. Last year, we were one of the worst defensive teams in the league and Crabbe was the worst defender in our rotation.

You want to give Crabbe credit for how good our offense was last year, then you also need to give him blame for how bad the defense was.

The guy is, was, and will always be a one-dimensional streaky shooter who can't create for himself or others. He is a disinterested lackadaisical defender and a defensive liability. His play in POR proved it and his play in BRK further proves it. What more evidence do you need?

I will gladly give Crabbe's minutes to Napier and Connaughton. Gladly.

You also ignored that our final record last year, even with the Nurk honeymoon was .500. We are currently at .538 and Stott's teams have historically played better in the second half of the season.

As far as missing Crabbe's spacing, Al-Farouq Aminu is shooting a higher 3FG% than Crabbe this year and he's making more 3-pointers this year than Crabbe did last year. Aminu has made at least five 3-pointers in a game five times this season, and that;'s in just 26 games played. Crabbe has only done it twice this year (in 36 games played) and only did it four times all of last season (in 79 games played).

That's the thing with Stott's system (and playing next to Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum) - everyone else will get plenty of wide open looks. Crabbe benefited from that while he was in POR, but this year in BRK he has truly been exposed as someone who cannot create his own shot. Team's play up tighter on him and he can't go around the defense and make them pay. His 3FG% is actually below league average without the benefit of defenses keying on Dame and C.J.

BNM

Regarding Allen’s defense; if he was as awful as you paint him, explain why Stotts often times would put him on the opposing teams best player. I don’t see Pat getting those matchups late in games. Crabbe was inconsistent yes, but so was everyone else. Who’s to say he wouldn’t have followed Dames lead this season and bought in completely on that end? That’s how he got on the court in Portland to begin with; defense.


“Streaky shooter.” If you average 44% you’re still going to miss more than half the shots you take. I know how averages work. You could look at Klays game log and find multiple games where he’ll make 2 or 3 on 10+ attempts. Its like that with everyone. But teams still had to respect Crabbe at all times. I don’t see any of the “replacements” getting that treatment this season. So when you bring up Aminu, once again, dishonest. No one is afraid of him, so until there’s an adjustment as to how teams defend him, it doesn’t matter.

 

[Chris Craig]

How does adding Napier while losing Lee get them closer to the playoffs?

Cause they'd also gain Harkless who would go all out for his home town

 

[Chris Craig]

Blazers make a move before the deadline. They are stacked at the 4 and 5 and will make a move(s) to balance the roster, cut salary to get the Blazers below the cap, and bolster assests. Olshey is a fan of scooping up young unappreciated players and draft picks.


Napier, Harkless, Turner, Leonard, and Davis are on the block

Olshey will probably try to dupe Orlando for Hezonja. Try to get Mirotic and a pick. Pick up cheap productive vets like Tyreke Evans. Etc.

 

[dviss1]

Regarding Allen’s defense; if he was as awful as you paint him, explain why Stotts often times would put him on the opposing teams best player. I don’t see Pat getting those matchups late in games. Crabbe was inconsistent yes, but so was everyone else. Who’s to say he wouldn’t have followed Dames lead this season and bought in completely on that end? That’s how he got on the court in Portland to begin with; defense.


“Streaky shooter.” If you average 44% you’re still going to miss more than half the shots you take. I know how averages work. You could look at Klays game log and find multiple games where he’ll make 2 or 3 on 10+ attempts. Its like that with everyone. But teams still had to respect Crabbe at all times. I don’t see any of the “replacements” getting that treatment this season. So when you bring up Aminu, once again, dishonest. No one is afraid of him, so until there’s an adjustment as to how teams defend him, it doesn’t matter.

If you think Allen Crabbe is a better defender than Pat Connaghton... bro... Are you watching games??

Every single bit of Allen Crabbe's production has been replaced and we're a MUCH better defensive team without him. Plus, we're winning more games.

We are NOT better with Allen Crabbe's lackadaisical Defense and HUGE check that he never earned. Addition by subtraction.

 

[Chris Craig]

If you think Allen Crabbe is a better defender than Pat Connaghton... bro... Are you watching games??

Every single bit of Allen Crabbe's production has been replaced and we're a MUCH better defensive team without him. Plus, we're winning more games.

We are NOT better with Allen Crabbe's lackadaisical Defense and HUGE check that he never earned. Addition by subtraction.

Yeah I am glad he is gone. I was a tiny tiny bit worried he'd turn into an all star on the nets, but he is the same lazy ass player. It sucks we have a stretched contract in his place that we will have to pay on for the next few years, but it was worth getting rid of him. Olshey fucked up paying him all that money.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Regarding Allen’s defense; if he was as awful as you paint him, explain why Stotts often times would put him on the opposing teams best player. I don’t see Pat getting those matchups late in games. Crabbe was inconsistent yes, but so was everyone else. Who’s to say he wouldn’t have followed Dames lead this season and bought in completely on that end? That’s how he got on the court in Portland to begin with; defense.


“Streaky shooter.” If you average 44% you’re still going to miss more than half the shots you take. I know how averages work. You could look at Klays game log and find multiple games where he’ll make 2 or 3 on 10+ attempts. Its like that with everyone. But teams still had to respect Crabbe at all times. I don’t see any of the “replacements” getting that treatment this season. So when you bring up Aminu, once again, dishonest. No one is afraid of him, so until there’s an adjustment as to how teams defend him, it doesn’t matter.

Jesus, really? Crabbe was/is a HORRIBLE defender. He was never put on the other team's best player. That was always Amuni and Harkless (when he still cared). Both Connaughton and Napier are much better defenders. Mostly because they actually try to play defense. Crabbe never put in any effort on the defensive end. He constantly stood straight up and let his man drive right around him. We would not be one of the top defenses in the league if we still had Allen Crabbe playing 28.5 MPG.

Pat Connaughton has the exact same PER as Crabbe (10.7), a higher TS% (.596 vs. .536) and makes 1/13th as much. Shabazz Napier has a much higher PER (18.3 vs. 10.7) and also has a higher TS% (.595 vs. .536), is a much better passer and an infinitely better defender, despite his smaller size. Connaughton and Napier have absorbed Crabbe's minutes and more than replaced his offensive production. And, they actually play defense.

So, if Crabbe is all that and a bag of chips, why has he fallen on his face in BRK? He finally got his chance to start (after both Lin and Russell were injured) and has been exposed for what he's always been. He's not even shooting the 3 that well anymore (below league average) now that he can't stand at the 3-point line and wait for Dame and C.J. to collapse the defense and kick it out to him for the wide open 3.

So, where is this breakout season, you and others were predicting for Crabbe?

BNM

 

[Scalma]

Here we go

 

[Chris Craig]

Here we go

Do it Olshey throw bulls a 1st

 

[Pinwheel1]

I am all for trading for Mirotic, but not for the 1st round draft pick. He plays the same position as Collins and Swanigan and Noah and Aminu. We need to hold on to the draft pick and hope to get a SF.

Swanigan is a 1st rounder.....just from last year. Include him.

 

[Scalma]

Do it Olshey throw bulls a 1st

Please don’t

 

[Scalma]

I am all for trading for Mirotic, but not for the 1st round draft pick. He plays the same position as Collins and Swanigan and Noah and Aminu. We need to hold on to the draft pick and hope to get a SF.

Swanigan is a 1st rounder.....just from last year. Include him.

Harkless and Swanigan? I’d do it.

 

[Chris Craig]

Here we go

I hope Olshey has the balls to make some actual moves and not just continue to be the middle man getting tea bagged while the other teams in the deal make out.

 

[tlongII]

I predict a lot of Blazer fans will be disappointed at the trade deadline.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Do it Olshey throw bulls a 1st

The Crabbe TPE plus a conditional 1st works, and we have an open roster spot, but:

It makes our tax situation much worse.

Chicago may want a young player, or two, combined with an expiring contract.

You can't combine the TPE with a player for cap matching purposes, but you can so it as two separate transactions. With the Bulls under the cap, you could do something like TPE + 1st for Mirotic and Napier (or whoever the Bulls want) for a future top 55 protected 2nd.

Is Mirotic worth the huge tax penalty (plus burning year one of a likely repeater tax situation)?

If not, who would you give up (that Chicago would actually want) to get him?

BNM

 

[dviss1]

I hope Olshey has the balls to make some actual moves and not just continue to be the middle man getting tea bagged while the other teams in the deal make out.

You're a lot smarter than this post Chris...

 

[Boob-No-More]

Harkless and Swanigan? I’d do it.

But would the Bulls? They have no need for Swanigan. Markkanen is their starter and Portis is a much better back up than Swanigan.

They could use Harkless' length at SF (where they are currently playing a 6'6" SG out of position), but he might go into terminal pout mode if traded to CHI.

I think they will receive better offers - plural.

BNM

 

[Pinwheel1]

But would the Bulls? They have no need for Swanigan. Markkanen is their starter and Portis is a much better back up than Swanigan.

They could use Harkless' length at SF (where they are currently playing a 6'6" SG out of position), but he might go into terminal pout mode if traded to CHI.

I think they will receive better offers - plural.

BNM

Looking at their very young depth chart....what do they need? What would they consider a better offer? You are probably right when you mentioned the TPE and a conditional 1st. That would would be valuable if they think they are a FA player this summer.

Unfortunately that would not help our SF situation.

 

[Scalma]

But would the Bulls? They have no need for Swanigan. Markkanen is their starter and Portis is a much better back up than Swanigan.

They could use Harkless' length at SF (where they are currently playing a 6'6" SG out of position), but he might go into terminal pout mode if traded to CHI.

I think they will receive better offers - plural.

BNM

Idk I’m not the one that brought Swanigan up. My trade with Chicago has been Harkless and Leonard for Mirotic and filler like Felicio.

And your little “Harkless pouter” crusade isn’t anything more than libel.

 

[Pinwheel1]

Well to answer my own question.....it looks like a young center is their biggest need.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

The Hawks seem to have a surplus of wings (Bazemore, Belinelli, Prince, Bembry, Babbitt, Dorsey) and a deficit in the frontcourt (aside from rookie John Collins, their best PF/C seems to be 30-year-old journeyman Ersan Ilyasova). Perhaps there's a deal to be made there?

 

[Boob-No-More]

Idk I’m not the one that brought Swanigan up. My trade with Chicago has been Harkless and Leonard for Mirotic and filler like Felicio.

And your little “Harkless pouter” crusade isn’t anything more than libel.

LOL. So, sue me. Yeah, Mo has been great this year. So great, he lost his starting job to Evan Turner.

SF is our biggest need, by far, and the reason has been Mo's uninspired play. Leave it to you to defend a player not putting forth full effort.

I'll always support guys who play hard, regardless of their talent level (guys like Ed Davis, Al-Farouq Aminu, Pat Connaughton) over guys who have more natural talent, but just don't play hard. Mo's three month funk is inexcusable. He's a professional that's paid over $10 million a year. He needs to act like one. Davis, Aminu, Connaughton, Napier all make less and all put forth a lot more effort on the floor than Mo.

Mo has had a couple good games recently. I suspect his motivation is to increase his trade value. While I'm fine with that, it makes me even more frustrated that he wasn't playing with that same effort for the first 30 games of the season.

BNM

 

[Scalma]

LOL. So, sue me. Yeah, Mo has been great this year. So great, he lost his starting job to Evan Turner.

SF is our biggest need, by far, and the reason has been Mo's uninspired play. Leave it to you to defend a player not putting forth full effort.

I'll always support guys who play hard, regardless of their talent level (guys like Ed Davis, Al-Farouq Aminu, Pat Connaughton) over guys who have more natural talent, but just don't play hard. Mo's three month funk is inexcusable. He's a professional that's paid over $10 million a year. He needs to act like one. Davis, Aminu, Connaughton, Napier all make less and all put forth a lot more effort on the floor than Mo.

Mo has had a couple good games recently. I suspect his motivation is to increase his trade value. While I'm fine with that, it makes me even more frustrated that he wasn't playing with that same effort for the first 30 games of the season.

BNM

I wasn’t arguing that he’s played bad. Doesn’t mean he’s not trying, pouting, or being unprofessional. Everything I’ve heard and read points to the opposite. His body language is no different than it’s been since he’s been here so it’s interesting to me how you can jump to the conclusions you have without any sort of evidence beyond that.

 

[BBert]

Well to answer my own question.....it looks like a young center is their biggest need.

Meyers it is!

 

[Boob-No-More]

I wasn’t arguing that he’s played bad. Doesn’t mean he’s not trying, pouting, or being unprofessional. Everything I’ve heard and read points to the opposite. His body language is no different than it’s been since he’s been here so it’s interesting to me how you can jump to the conclusions you have without any sort of evidence beyond that.

Because I've watched the games. No way in hell was he playing as hard for those first 30+ games as he did last year. The effort just wasn't there.

So, what's your explanation for his horrible play? He hasn't been injured. He's not in physical decline. Lord knows it's not fatigue. So, if it's not a lack of effort, why has his production fallen off a cliff?

BNM

 

[ripcityboy]

I predict a lot of Blazer fans will be disappointed at the trade deadline.

Well. There are a lot of Beaver fans in here (as well) so they should be used to the feeling.

 

[tester551]

Well to answer my own question.....it looks like a young center is their biggest need.

I still like my trade proposal with the Wolves & Bulls.
Here it is (swapping Mirotic for Lopez)

 

[Scalma]

Because I've watched the games. No way in hell was he playing as hard for those first 30+ games as he did last year. The effort just wasn't there.

So, what's your explanation for his horrible play? He hasn't been injured. He's not in physical decline. Lord knows it's not fatigue. So, if it's not a lack of effort, why has his production fallen off a cliff?

BNM

Moe’s best stretch of ball last year was before Nurkic arrived. His best games this year have been when one of Dame/CJ have been out. I don’t think that’s a coincidence. When he’s somewhat featured, he produces. When everyone is on the court, he’s relegated to standing in the corner waiting to shoot a three, which isn’t his game, as he’s even admitted.

So while he definitely deserves to be criticized, I don’t believe it’s 100% his fault as I believe you’re making it seem.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Just for reference--here's Mo's cumulative game log over the first 21 games this year (when he was getting regular minutes and performing poorly) as compared to the same span last year.




Biggest differences are in his shooting %'s (across the board) and his total shots taken. So the question (to me) is,

1. Were teams defending him differently causing him to defer;
2. Were Dame/CJ giving him fewer offensive opportunities, or
3. Was he simply choosing to be less aggressive offensively?

I don't really buy into 1, but I think 2 is perfectly reasonable--especially with greater emphasis on involving Nurkic in the offense--potentially leading to 3 as well, especially given his "I feel like I'm just 'out there'" comments from November. If a guy feels like he's basically being frozen out, it's not surprising if he somewhat disengages, and personally I think that's what happened to Moe.

 

[illmatic99]

Doesn't Mirotic's current contract situation give him an essential no-trade clause? He has veto power I believe.

Would he want to come here with all our other PFs?