Trade Ideas Thread (6 Viewers)

[GhostOfPGA]

I don't think Milwaukee would do that. Have to have an all star coming back. Giannis is what a 2x mvp now, no way they let him go for less than Dame plus picks etc

It’s either they get something for him or he walks in FA. Like KD and OKC but Milwaukee has time to actually get something in return.

 

[e_blazer]

It’s either they get something for him or he walks in FA. Like KD and OKC but Milwaukee has time to actually get something in return.

I don’t think it’s a comparable situation for Giannis or the Bucks...at least not yet. Giannis is saying that he wants to make it work with the Bucks. The Bucks are reportedly exploring ways they might work a trade to bring CP3 in to run the team. If they can pull something like that off and it works, Giannis has more incentive to sign an extension. OTOH, maybe the Bucks can’t make a splashy move and things go sour. My bet is that there’s zero chance of a trade for Giannis until the deadline and that’s only if he’s saying he’s done with the Bucks. At that point, the Bucks would take the best deal they can find. It’s not likely they’d get a megastar in return.

 

[BonesJones]

no...he's not that good at

* in isolation possessions, CJ averaged 0.88 points/possession. That was only in the 56th percentile (44% of the league was better) in the league, and that was 13.3% of his possessions. Dame scored 1.07 ppp in isolation on 18% of his possessions and that was good enough for the 87th percentile

* in PnR ball-handler, which was 36.3% of CJ's possessions, he averaged 0.93 ppp which was only good enough for the 71st percentile. Dame averaged 1.15 ppp which was in the 96th percentile, and that was 52% of his possessions.

those are the two most 'create-your-own-offense' types of possessions. By weight, that means CJ was somewhere around the 66th percentile leaving 1/3 of the league better at shot creation and that actually accounted for about 50% of CJ's possessions. CJ isn't nearly as good at it as you are implying. On the other hand, Dame is elite at shot creation, being somewhere in the 93rd percentile, and that accounted for 70% of his possessions. A big difference is that an essential component of creating offense is creating FT opportunities and CJ is terrible at that. Always has been, always will be

another play type that accounted for 14.5% of CJ's possessions was transition. Definitely a possession that would gauge some ball handling and shot creation. Well, CJ was only in the 45th percentile in that category. That's approaching two thirds of CJ's possessions, plays dependent on 'shot creation', and CJ is hovering around the 60th percentile. That's not impressive. But I don't demerit him a lot for transition offense because the entire team sucks at it

meanwhile, CJ is in the 83rd percentile in spot-up possessions (14% of his shots). He's in the 75th percentile in off-screen shots.

And CJ ranks 8th in the NBA among perimeter players in eFG% on catch-and-shoot. That's elite

but that illustrates the problem. CJ's prowess in creating his own offense is more mythical than real. Yes, he does it a lot, but he's not very efficient. He's much better on plays that don't see him dribbling like crazy, burning shot clock, and stopping the damn ball. His assisted FG rate is half of what it should be. He needs to play a lot more like Klay Thompson and a lot less like Dame. Yeah, every once in a while he'll have a hot game and his fans will point to it repeatedly, forgetting about all his nothing-burger games where he did the same thing but shot bricks while hogging the ball.

and you say he's "bailed out" the Blazers in games. Sure, he's done that but Portland would not need to be bailed out so often if CJ wasn't such a huge sieve on defense. That's where Holiday would be a big help (he was in the 88th percentile in isolation by the way).

66th percentile isnt good? You literally search for numbers to pound into people's head sprinkled among 13 paragraphs... here you find out that hes 66th percentile in terms of your own basis for shot creation, but your negative bias wants to paint that as "not good".

Being a good catch-and-shoot player doesnt mean he isnt a good shot creator. Just because hes a great catch-and-shoot player doesnt mean he should NEVER try and create his own shot. That's some twisted as logic.

Also something your ignoring: Often times his shot creation steps up a level when the team needs it (usually when Dame is cold), which is crucial. But that cant be illustrated with synergy stats so you're probably lost on that.

 

[wizenheimer]

66th percentile isnt good? You literally search for numbers to pound into people's head sprinkled among 13 paragraphs... here you find out that hes 66th percentile in terms of your own basis for shot creation, but your negative bias wants to paint that as "not good".

lol...again with your fixation on the number of paragraphs I use. Maybe next, you can diagram my sentences and double-check punctuation

and what I said, was that CJ "was not THAT good" at shot creation and the context of the 'that' was the value of his shot creation vs any value Jrue Holiday would add with his size, positional versatility, playmaking, and defense. And so, in that context I'll say again that CJ's shot creation is not that good

Being a good catch-and-shoot player doesnt mean he isnt a good shot creator. Just because hes a great catch-and-shoot player doesnt mean he should NEVER try and create his own shot. That's some twisted as logic.

Find where it was I said that CJ should never create his own shot. You won't of course because I never did. It's hilarious that you not only distorted what I said, you emphasized the distortion with a caps-lock. Do better with your straw men next time

what I have actually said is that CJ's assisted FG is about half of what it should be. It should be closer to 70% rather than 35%. That still leaves close to 1/3 of the time he's creating his own shots, so for CJ fans there would still be plenty of dribbling and ball hogging

Portland, as a team averaged 1.26 points/shot. CJ only averaged 1.15 and since we know he's pretty damn good at catch & shoot and spot-up, his points/shot mark on unassisted FG's is even worse than 1.15. On the other hand, Dame averaged 1.47 points/shot. Now there's somebody good at shot creation

Also something your ignoring: Often times his shot creation steps up a level when the team needs it (usually when Dame is cold), which is crucial. But that cant be illustrated with synergy stats so you're probably lost on that.

nope, I'm not ignoring it, I'm just discounting it in the context of a trade for somebody like Jrue. I also don't believe it happens nearly as "often" as you apparently do

 

[blazerkor]

I don’t think it’s a comparable situation for Giannis or the Bucks...at least not yet. Giannis is saying that he wants to make it work with the Bucks. The Bucks are reportedly exploring ways they might work a trade to bring CP3 in to run the team. If they can pull something like that off and it works, Giannis has more incentive to sign an extension. OTOH, maybe the Bucks can’t make a splashy move and things go sour. My bet is that there’s zero chance of a trade for Giannis until the deadline and that’s only if he’s saying he’s done with the Bucks. At that point, the Bucks would take the best deal they can find. It’s not likely they’d get a megastar in return.

They could definitely gamble and keep Giannis but the idea that they'll be able to make a CP3 trade work is a hard one to wrap my head around when CP3 is making like 40 million and the Thunder are going to want young pieces to build around SGA not Bledsoe, Hill and BroLo and picks that only have value if you are gambling that Giannis leaves. For sure the Thunder are going to be able to find a contender or someone who is trying to win now who have a package with some combination of really promising young or at least younger players, picks and/or cap relief. This is Chris Paul we're talking about and he showed this season that he has quite a bit left in the tank. Make this trade work and then I'll agree that they would be smart to keep Giannis but I don't see that trade working out... they might just try to run it back with what they have and whatever they can get with the MLE and take their chances that the playoffs go better and Giannis stays but that's a big big gamble.

 

[GDiama]

Ariza's contract needs to be guaranteed before offseason? If not we should have 10M cap space and 10M MLE since we are not projected to be taxpayers?

If we need to let Ariza go and get the cap space i think 30M/3 years for Crowder is a good first move. He might find more in Miami but it's not they are good with cap space and they have to think about rewnewing Dragic and also Adebayo's extension coming next season so they might want to avoid committing big money to Crowder.

After that 16M/2 years for JaMychal Green I believe is good as he can backup both big positions and if Zach doesn't improve he can even become a starter. He has imporved his 3 point shot a lot, rebounds extremely well and will bring some toughness in D.

Those are not some great moves that change the level of the team, but they are both very good role players that give their all every time on the court.

 

[BonesJones]

lol...again with your fixation on the number of paragraphs I use. Maybe next, you can diagram my sentences and double-check punctuation

and what I said, was that CJ "was not THAT good" at shot creation and the context of the 'that' was the value of his shot creation vs any value Jrue Holiday would add with his size, positional versatility, playmaking, and defense. And so, in that context I'll say again that CJ's shot creation is not that good



Find where it was I said that CJ should never create his own shot. You won't of course because I never did. It's hilarious that you not only distorted what I said, you emphasized the distortion with a caps-lock. Do better with your straw men next time

what I have actually said is that CJ's assisted FG is about half of what it should be. It should be closer to 70% rather than 35%. That still leaves close to 1/3 of the time he's creating his own shots, so for CJ fans there would still be plenty of dribbling and ball hogging

Portland, as a team averaged 1.26 points/shot. CJ only averaged 1.15 and since we know he's pretty damn good at catch & shoot and spot-up, his points/shot mark on unassisted FG's is even worse than 1.15. On the other hand, Dame averaged 1.47 points/shot. Now there's somebody good at shot creation



nope, I'm not ignoring it, I'm just discounting it in the context of a trade for somebody like Jrue. I also don't believe it happens nearly as "often" as you apparently do

You water down your posts with so much fluffy nonsense without saying anything definitive or clear that you shouldn't be upset when people dont know exactly what your saying.

You're discounting it far too much. We don't make the WCF last year with Jrue instead of C.J. for the reasons I've stated.

 

[wizenheimer]

You water down your posts with so much fluffy nonsense without saying anything definitive or clear that you shouldn't be upset when people dont know exactly what your saying.

I've watched a couple of your videos...you have enough 'fluffy nonsense' floating around your own glass house you shouldn't condemn it

You're discounting it far too much. We don't make the WCF last year with Jrue instead of C.J. for the reasons I've stated.

yeah sure, and CJ led the Blazers past Jrue's pelicans the year before that too.

I think if you asked this forum about a straight up trade of CJ for Jrue, plenty of Blazer fans would take it. I'm not the only one here who liked that idea, or has liked it in the past

 

[GhostOfPGA]

I think if you asked this forum about a straight up trade of CJ for Jrue, plenty of Blazer fans would take it. I'm not the only one here who liked that idea, or has liked it in the past

We’d need more than just a swap. CJ younger, and not injury prone. They’d have to throw in another player or pick.

 

[BonesJones]

I've watched a couple of your videos...you have enough 'fluffy nonsense' floating around your own glass house you shouldn't condemn it



yeah sure, and CJ led the Blazers past Jrue's pelicans the year before that too.

I think if you asked this forum about a straight up trade of CJ for Jrue, plenty of Blazer fans would take it. I'm not the only one here who liked that idea, or has liked it in the past

If you did YouTube, people would get confused and would think it's a math channel, so you shit-talking my channel means nothing to me. I break down basketball, you're an "analytics are everything" type. Just own it.

It's not that I like or dislike the trade, it's that you'll skew anything to fit you're preconceived notions and throw out whatever numbers support it. You obviously think you know more than everyone here because you have a number for everything. Someone states a basketball opinion and it always reads like "well actually, youre wrong because of this stat, that stat, these stats, those stats". You're not dumb, I actually think you're pretty smart. The constant analytics-only, 20-stats a post approach gets annoying though. I dont like talking ball with you because it becomes more of a math conversation than actual basketball.. You're smart enough to talk basketball without giving people a headache.

 

[wizenheimer]

If you did YouTube, people would get confused and would think it's a math channel, so you shit-talking my channel means nothing to me. I break down basketball, you're an "analytics are everything" type. Just own it.

LOL....ok...let me get this straight, you're an oracle of basketball analysis and knowledge, while I'm just some clown spouting stats. I watch basketball but don't know what I'm watching. I've seen 7 years of CJ but don't understand his game.

is that where you're going?

It's not that I like or dislike the trade, it's that you'll skew anything to fit you're preconceived notions and throw out whatever numbers support it.

you claimed CJ had value as a shot creator. Your words. I added some stats on shot creation, which certainly seems germane to the discussion, but apparently offends you. I didn't make the stats or doctor them or "skew" them. Just found them on NBA.com. Where CJ actually ranks in shot creation is going to help gauge his value as a shot creator, at least it does in my view

You obviously think you know more than everyone here because you have a number for everything. Someone states a basketball opinion and it always reads like "well actually, youre wrong because of this stat, that stat, these stats, those stats".

as opposed to saying "you're wrong" without using any stats? People disagree here all the time. You disagree with people here all the time...and you use stats some of the time. Where the fuck is the cut-off line for just the right amount of stats and too much? Is that a rule somewhere Ive missed?

in my experience, I've seen that people complain the most about using stats when those stats cut against an opinion they have. I'm certain that if I had posted stats showing what a great shot creator CJ was you would have been enthusiastic about my contribution

You're smart enough to talk basketball without giving people a headache.

I own stock in Tylenol so handing out headaches is self-interest

 

[wizenheimer]

We’d need more than just a swap. CJ younger, and not injury prone. They’d have to throw in another player or pick.

CJ has a worse contract though so that offsets the injury histories a bit. Age is not a factor IMO because Jrue is the same age as Dame, and Dame is the gauge for moves

I'd do the trade, obviously, because I think the Blazers desperately need better defense in their starting back court, and Jrue can actually run an offense well on a consistent basis. He's not as redundant as CJ

that said, and even though I'm convinced Jrue would be an upgrade, I doubt he'd significantly alter Portland's trajectory over what CJ will provide. There would have to be more moves made that would complement the 'new' starting guards

 

[GhostOfPGA]

CJ has a worse contract though so that offsets the injury histories a bit. Age is not a factor IMO because Jrue is the same age as Dame, and Dame is the gauge for moves

I'd do the trade, obviously, because I think the Blazers desperately need better defense in their starting back court, and Jrue can actually run an offense well on a consistent basis. He's not as redundant as CJ

that said, and even though I'm convinced Jrue would be an upgrade, I doubt he'd significantly alter Portland's trajectory over what CJ will provide. There would have to be more moves made that would complement the 'new' starting guards

Idk, the 2-3mil more per year is no big deal when he has on average missed 20 games a season since joining New Orleans.

 

[BonesJones]

LOL....ok...let me get this straight, you're an oracle of basketball analysis and knowledge, while I'm just some clown spouting stats. I watch basketball but don't know what I'm watching. I've seen 7 years of CJ but don't understand his game.

is that where you're going?



you claimed CJ had value as a shot creator. Your words. I added some stats on shot creation, which certainly seems germane to the discussion, but apparently offends you. I didn't make the stats or doctor them or "skew" them. Just found them on NBA.com. Where CJ actually ranks in shot creation is going to help gauge his value as a shot creator, at least it does in my view



as opposed to saying "you're wrong" without using any stats? People disagree here all the time. You disagree with people here all the time...and you use stats some of the time. Where the fuck is the cut-off line for just the right amount of stats and too much? Is that a rule somewhere Ive missed?

in my experience, I've seen that people complain the most about using stats when those stats cut against an opinion they have. I'm certain that if I had posted stats showing what a great shot creator CJ was you would have been enthusiastic about my contribution



I own stock in Tylenol so handing out headaches is self-interest

No, YOU think you're the oracle Mr. Stathead!!!

Never called you a clown, just called smart! But you don't balance out stats and basketball-context at all. It's mainly 1, hardly 2. I can't remember a post you made about basketball that didn't include at least 3 random stats. On one-hand, you back things up, on the other, it's impossible to argue a basketball point of yours since it becomes a conversation about numbers instead of actual basketball.

Post stats that shines a good light on the Blazers? Since when have you done that... Guess I missed it.

 

[wizenheimer]

No, YOU think you're the oracle Mr. Stathead!!!

Never called you a clown, just called smart! But you don't balance out stats and basketball-context at all. It's mainly 1, hardly 2. I can't remember a post you made about basketball that didn't include at least 3 random stats. On one-hand, you back things up, on the other, it's impossible to argue a basketball point of yours since it becomes a conversation about numbers instead of actual basketball.

I fail to see how noting stats corrupts a basketball discussion

if somebody says CJ is better than Khris Middleton, or vice versa, or that Vucevic is better then Nurkic, it's worth comparing the numbers of the two players involved. That advances the discussion, not inhibits it, at least it does in my view.

Post stats that shines a good light on the Blazers? Since when have you done that... Guess I missed it.

I've done it several times, but make an assertion and I might gauge it by posting numbers

reverse challenge....make a positive argument in favor of retaining Terry Stotts as coach....

 

[BonesJones]

I fail to see how noting stats corrupts a basketball discussion

if somebody says CJ is better than Khris Middleton, or vice versa, or that Vucevic is better then Nurkic, it's worth comparing the numbers of the two players involved. That advances the discussion, not inhibits it, at least it does in my view.



I've done it several times, but make an assertion and I might gauge it by posting numbers

reverse challenge....make a positive argument in favor of retaining Terry Stotts as coach....

Never said using stats corrupts an argument or that they shouldn't be used. Obviously you're missing the point.

I'd love Terry Stotts as our coach... if we're in tank mode.

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

I just want to say that Wizenheimer's posts do not give me a headache.

 

[wizenheimer]

Never said using stats corrupts an argument or that they shouldn't be used. Obviously you're missing the point.

you keep using the word "obviously". I don't think the word means what you think it means. For instance, the point you're making is actually not over my level of understanding. I'm not missing the point, I just don't agree with it

basically, you're saying that using stats is fine unless somebody uses more stats than you think is fine. In other words, you're not arguing any principle, just a matter of degree; and it seems the degree depends on whether or not you agree with the story the stats tell

 

[damianlillard]

I just want to say that Wizenheimer's posts do not give me a headache.

Same! I actually love the fact that he use stats to backup his points

 

[wizenheimer]

I just want to say that Wizenheimer's posts do not give me a headache.

thanks!

but my post seemed to give my wife a headache for years

 

[BonesJones]

you keep using the word "obviously". I don't think the word means what you think it means. For instance, the point you're making is actually not over my level of understanding. I'm not missing the point, I just don't agree with it

basically, you're saying that using stats is fine unless somebody uses more stats than you think is fine. In other words, you're not arguing any principle, just a matter of degree; and it seems the degree depends on whether or not you agree with the story the stats tell

Obviously you are missing the point, this post reinforces that.

 

[BonesJones]

I just want to say that Wizenheimer's posts do not give me a headache.

Lucky.

 

[RR7]

 

[GDiama]

Hey guys we are willing to trade Horford!

 

[SharpesTriumph]

Horford doesn't have any value.

Would they consider Embiid trades?

 

[kjironman1]

Horford doesn't have any value.

I used to like the idea of Al Horford a few years ago. But maybe not so much anymore?
I was wondering? Can i use stats to make a case for him? Or just a case against him at this point?
Maybe just use a few stats and then give my opinion?

 

[kjironman1]

I should have wrote that in green sorry. ^^^^^^^

 

[lawai'a]

joe ingles for ariza / utah and blazers swap position in draft 23 for 16.
utah sheds a year of salary with mitchell and gobert contracts coming in 2021/22...more minutes for o'neal and niang. utah only has mitchell and bradley homegrown pics on their roster.
portland sheds another $2mil in salary for next season, gain another facilitator and stretch 4/3. shoots near 40%/3pt averages nearly 5 assists. savy defender.

 

[kjironman1]

joe ingles for ariza / utah and blazers swap position in draft 23 for 16.
utah sheds a year of salary with mitchell and gobert contracts coming in 2021/22...more minutes for o'neal and niang. utah only has mitchell and bradley homegrown pics on their roster.
portland sheds another $2mil in salary for next season, gain another facilitator and stretch 4/3. shoots near 40%/3pt averages nearly 5 assists. savy defender.

Joe Ingles is one of those "Glue Guys". Love to have him but i don't know if Utah gives him up?

 

[lawai'a]

Idk either, might depend on who is there at 16 and how highly Utah felt about them. The money issues are real though as gobert expires in 21/22 and will qualify for huge increase over present 26/per and mitchell will get a max too. Already got Bogdanovic @18/per too playing the three. Maybe yes maybe no