Trading our pick at #6

[Predator]

Scenario: we jump to #3

We lose out on the two franchise prospects: Jabari and Chet…

I’d offer that #3 pick and other assets to Orlando for Franz Wagner. Just to see if they bite - they are the Eastern Conference Sacramento Kings after all.

1. Banchero
2. Sharpe
3. Holmgren
4. Jabari

If we have a top 4 pick it’s a no brainer to keep that pick.

 

[blazerfan11]

I like Banchero but he’s really no different than Julius Randle. This is a two-player draft - there’s a dropoff outside Chet and Jabari with Sharpe as the dark horse.

If it ends up a two-player draft, I would say the two players would be Chet and and Jaden Ivey.

 

[blazerfan11]

Lol @ dropoff outside Chet and Jabari when most professional scouts think the two players with the best chance at becoming superstars are neither of those players.

(Sharpe and Banchero).

you could be right tho.

The experts said Thomas Robinson should be the #2 pick in 2012. He was a "sure thing."
2. Charlotte Bobcats: Thomas Robinson (PF), Kansas
The Charlotte Bobcats need help all over the roster, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist's versatility could be intriguing. The Bobcats have had too many draft flops, and Thomas Robinson is a high-motor, high-confidence sure thing on whom they can depend.

 

[oldmangrouch]

IMHO, Sharpe is the classic unscratched lotto ticket. The risk is huge and the reward is a mystery.

 

[oldmangrouch]

The experts said Thomas Robinson should be the #2 pick in 2012. He was a "sure thing."
2. Charlotte Bobcats: Thomas Robinson (PF), Kansas
The Charlotte Bobcats need help all over the roster, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist's versatility could be intriguing. The Bobcats have had too many draft flops, and Thomas Robinson is a high-motor, high-confidence sure thing on whom they can depend.

I will say this - they got the "high motor" part right. During his brief time with the Blazers, I don't recall him ever dogging it. It's too bad his energy level and BBall IQ were at opposite ends of the scale.

 

[Predator]

The experts said Thomas Robinson should be the #2 pick in 2012. He was a "sure thing."
2. Charlotte Bobcats: Thomas Robinson (PF), Kansas
The Charlotte Bobcats need help all over the roster, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist's versatility could be intriguing. The Bobcats have had too many draft flops, and Thomas Robinson is a high-motor, high-confidence sure thing on whom they can depend.

Maybe you missed the “you could be right tho”
Also no clue where that draft report was from. T-Rob, at best, was a sure thing to be a role player because he had a very limited offensive skillset. He literally had no offensive game.

Also, “sure thing” doesn’t mean “superstar”. Keegan Murray is probably a “sure thing” but he has a limited ceiling.

 

[Predator]

I will say this - they got the "high motor" part right. During his brief time with the Blazers, I don't recall him ever dogging it. It's too bad his energy level and BBall IQ were at opposite ends of the scale.

His energy level and actual basketball skills were at the opposite ends of the scale as well.

 

[Mediocre Man]

It’s not a difficult formula

Trivia time

6-3
5-9
2-7
3-2
4-9

what do those numbers represent?

These numbers are our defensive and offensive rankings when we went to the conference or league finals.

I did not use the fluke year a couple of years ago, and the championship year was not available. However, that year we had the largest margin of victory.


DEFENSE is important

 

[theprunetang]

His energy level and actual basketball skills were at the opposite ends of the scale as well.

Kind of reminds me of Greg Brown in that regard so far. Let's see if Brown can pick some things up this off-season.

 

[blazerfan11]

Maybe you missed the “you could be right tho”
Also no clue where that draft report was from. T-Rob, at best, was a sure thing to be a role player because he had a very limited offensive skillset. He literally had no offensive game.

Also, “sure thing” doesn’t mean “superstar”. Keegan Murray is probably a “sure thing” but he has a limited ceiling.

"sure thing" definitely did not mean playing for 6 NBA teams in 5 years then playing for BC Khimki in Russia.
T Rob was a bust.

 

[blazerfan11]

Minor point, but we are also > 3x more likely to drop to #7 than keep #6.

Statistically speaking, our most likely pick following the lottery is #7, by a substantial margin.

~30% shot at #7
~20% shot at #8
~10% shot at #1, 2, 3, 4, 6
~4% shot at #9
< 1% shot at #10

So a 40% chance of 1-4, and 50% chance of 1,2,3,4 or 6.

 

[BBert]

For some reason this reminds me of when John Nash basically let everyone know the Blazers were focused on Martell Webster or Gerald Green. The Blazers passed on the chance to draft Chris Paul for Martell. The Blazers draft Martell high in the lottery; while Green goes #18. So we basically immediately got value in the back half of the draft for the #3 pick. Sounds similar to the value of trading our lottery pick for Jerami Grant.

Crazy to think of now, that Martell is older than Christ Paul. Paul is still playing, it feels like Martell retired a decade ago. I just looked it up, it was 13 years ago Martell played his last game for us and 9 years since he started his last game for the Wizards.

Passed on Chris Paul AND Deron Williams

 

[blazerkor]

So a 40% chance of 1-4, and 50% chance of 1,2,3,4 or 6.

Not quite, the truth is that there is a 50.3% chance we end up at 7 or 8 and still a 3.7% chance that we end up at 9. So more than a 54% chance that we move back. There's a 37.2% chance we move into the top 4 and an 8.6% chance we stay at 6. So those are your real numbers: 37.2% chance of 1-4 and 45.8% chance of 1,2,3,4 or 6.

I love it that better than a third of the time we end up moving up... I'll take it.

 

[1 Eye Jack]

For #6, even with a package of our nothing players? Really? We're going to get AD, John Collins, or Siakam?

technically you have bucks pick, a future blazers first, little and other pieces that could potentially get a deal done.

 

[tykendo]

Siakam or Collins. Size ,skill, & shot making. Siakam is a proven defender, but Collins, with Billups teaching, could develop there. That's it for me. If the 6th pick turns into a top 2 pick, i take Smith or Banchero.

 

[tykendo]

In NO WAY, do i trade the 6th for Grant. Bucks 1st (2025), sure. Detroit needs to move on from Grant. Don't bail them out. If We don't move up to 1 or 2, and can't acquire Siakam, or Collins, i'd pick Murray. He's a polished player who may just surprise with his NBA ready game.

 

[Mediocre Man]

In NO WAY, do i trade the 6th for Grant. Bucks 1st (2025), sure. Detroit needs to move on from Grant. Don't bail them out. If We don't move up to 1 or 2, and can't acquire Siakam, or Collins, i'd pick Murray. He's a polished player who may just surprise with his NBA ready game.

A Siakam, Kyle Anderson off-season would make me so happy

 

[oldmangrouch]

If we were trading with Detroit, I would take Bey over Grant.

Oh...wait.... we could have drafted Bey, but that was one of the picks we wasted on RoCo.

Lather, rinse, repeat. If we trade our lotto pick for Grant, I guarandamntee that in 3 years we will be looking back and asking how our GM could have been so clueless.

 

[wizenheimer]

If we were trading with Detroit, I would take Bey over Grant.

Oh...wait.... we could have drafted Bey, but that was one of the picks we wasted on RoCo.

people shouldn't forget that Olshey did something similar to the Roco trade before. That was when he traded Will Barton and a 1st for Afflalo

that 1st turned out to be the 19th pick in the 2016 draft:

19 Malik Beasley
20 Caris LeVert
27 Pascal Siakam
29 Dejounte Murray
36 Malcolm Brogdon

(if people think I'm going to stop hammering Olshey any time soon they are delusional. There is a 37 year statute of limitations on NBA GM decisions. The Bowie over Jordan decision is just expiring)

 

[PtldPlatypus]

people shouldn't forget that Olshey did something similar to the Roco trade before. That was when he traded Will Barton and a 1st for Afflalo

that 1st turned out to be the 19th pick in the 2016 draft:

19 Malik Beasley
20 Caris LeVert
27 Pascal Siakam
29 Dejounte Murray
36 Malcolm Brogdon

(if people think I'm going to stop hammering Olshey any time soon they are delusional. There is a 37 year statute of limitations on NBA GM decisions. The Bowie over Jordan decision is just expiring)

I work with a guy named Davis Walter, and every time I see his name I get angry about the Drazen Petrovic trade all over again.

 

[oldmangrouch]

I work with a guy named Davis Walter, and every time I see his name I get angry about the Drazen Petrovic trade all over again.

I will say this - when Petro was drafted, the talking heads predicted that it meant Sabonis would never play in Portland because he and Petro had some deep-seated personal animosity. If that claim was true, I am just fine with Petro being traded. Pre-injury Sabonis was arguably better than David Robinson. Even post-injury he was a heck of a player.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

I have a feeling that literally nobody on this board would support trading the #6 and a re-signed Nurk for Rudy Gobert - but if you're going to start a backcourt of Dame and Anfernee it sure would help to have the best defensive center in the league behind them.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

How about we trade you for PapaG?

 

[SlyPokerDog]

Trade the #6 for Klay.

 

[oldmangrouch]

I have a feeling that literally nobody on this board would support trading the #6 and a re-signed Nurk for Rudy Gobert - but if you're going to start a backcourt of Dame and Anfernee it sure would help to have the best defensive center in the league behind them.

You just can't tie up that much of your salary cap in a defensive specialist - even an elite one like Gobert. If he was on a more team friendly contract, I would actually consider that deal.

 

[blazerfan11]

I work with a guy named Davis Walter, and every time I see his name I get angry about the Drazen Petrovic trade all over again.

That's what can happen if you draft a good player that can't get enough playing time. Like Jermaine O'Neal.

 

[Hoopguru]

I work with a guy named Davis Walter, and every time I see his name I get angry about the Drazen Petrovic trade all over again.

Does he own a Greyhound?

 

[blazerfan11]

Trade the #6 for Klay.

No thanks!
He's trending in the wrong direction.
He's 4 years older than Jerami Grant and has a worse true shooting % than Grant.
You were kidding, right?

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Does he own a Greyhound?

I have no idea--why do you ask?

 

[Hoopguru]

I have no idea--why do you ask?

Walt was The Greyhound!