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http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...t-i-trade-possibilities?utm_source=newsletter
by Sean Highkin
If I had my way, I'd be writing a preview of the Portland Trail Blazers' upcoming Western Conference Finals series against the Los Angeles Lakers. A season of nothing but injuries and more injuries has a way of preventing that.
Instead, I am going to take a look at what we can expect the Blazers to do this offseason as far as roster moves. The first part of this offseason forecast will look at possible trade ideas, while the second part (coming later in the week) will focus on potential free-agent acquisitions.
I. Who's Tradable?
Before I get into specific trade proposals, I'm going to do a little housekeeping and divide the Trail Blazers' roster up into a few different categories based on who's most likely to be traded and who's completely off-limits. Most of this shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone who has watched this team in the past year, but it's a good idea to just get the names in order before throwing trade ideas out there. Players' salaries for the 2010-11 season are in parentheses.
TIER 1: The Untouchables
Brandon Roy ($13.5 million) - The unquestioned franchise leader. Not up for discussion unless LeBron James' name is involved, and probably not even then.
LaMarcus Aldridge ($10.7 million) - Okay, maybe he could be had in return for some kind of package involving Chris Bosh, but that's not even slightly realistic. Not only is Aldridge a cornerstone of the franchise, but his five-year, $65 million contract would certainly limit the number of teams that could swing a trade for him anyway.
Greg Oden ($6.8 million) - In an ideal world, Oden is in this category because he's spent his first three years tearing up the NBA and becoming the West's equivalent to Dwight Howard. In reality, he's in this category because a) Portland wouldn't be able to get anything close to an equal return on his potential when healthy, and b) I highly doubt they'd be willing to risk trading him only to watch him stay healthy and have a dominant career somewhere else. For better or worse, the Blazers aren't going to give up on Oden for another two or three years.
Nicolas Batum ($1.2 million) - A 21-year-old defensive specialist with a 7'4" wingspan who can shoot threes and still has two years left on his rookie contract? Yeah, dream on.
TIER 2: Unlikely to be Available, But Could Be Had for the Right Offer
Marcus Camby ($10.1 million) - Considering how instrumental the veteran center was in the Blazers' late playoff run since coming over from the Clippers at the trading deadline, and especially given the questions surrounding Oden's health, I was tempted to put Camby down as an untouchable. The only reason I didn't was because, at 36, he isn't part of the team's long-term plans. With that said, someone would have to absolutely blow Kevin Pritchard away with an offer in order for Portland to part with him.
Andre Miller ($7.2 million) - The veteran point guard got off to a rocky start in Portland, but once Nate McMillan came to his senses and realized that Steve Blake is not a starting-quality NBA player, Miller became one of the team's most consistent producers and a steadying veteran hand for the young, mostly inexperienced roster. His contract, with one more year guaranteed plus a team option for 2011-12, is very trade-friendly. His value to the Blazers is not.
Martell Webster ($4.8 million) - Webster had a solid bounceback year after missing the entire 2008-09 season with a broken foot. He isn't the most consistent player in the world, but he's proven himself to be a capable scorer and defender, able to put up solid numbers as a starter at small forward, and he handled being benched when Batum came back from shoulder surgery about as well as anybody could expect. For all of these reasons, the Blazers would probably like to hold onto him, but it's not unthinkable that he could be included in a package deal, particularly for a major upgrade at point guard.
Jerryd Bayless ($2.3 million) - Possibly the most polarizing player on the entire roster. Bayless has all the talent in the world but no defined position. He's too much of a shoot-first player to be a pure point guard, but he's too small to be a legitimate 2-guard in this league. Still, the Blazers' front office thinks very highly of him, and he did a solid job filling in for Roy at the most injury-plagued times of the 2009-10 season. He could get moved if the Blazers have an opportunity to upgrade at point guard, but that's unlikely.
TIER 3: Probably Available, But Where's the Demand?
Jeff Pendergraph, Dante Cunningham, Patty Mills ($457,588 each) - There just isn't a huge market for second-round picks who played marginal minutes during their rookie seasons. Nobody the Blazers could get for any of these guys is worth giving up their bench production, which was solid (particularly in the case of Cunningham).
TIER 4: Definitely Available
Joel Przybilla ($7.4 million) - When healthy, the Vanilla Gorilla is a rock-solid rebounder and shot-blocker. I have to wonder whether he'll ever play another NBA game, however. Not only did he rupture his right patella tendon in December, requiring season-ending surgery, but he re-injured the same knee in March after slipping in the shower, which required him to have the same surgery before the first one was completely healed. The uncertainty over his future is the primary reason the Blazers not only traded for Marcus Camby at the deadline, but also inked him to a two-year extension in April.
The good news? A $7.4 million expiring contract is about as attractive as trade pieces get. Next year's free-agent class isn't as loaded as this year's, but if the Nuggets get bounced in the playoffs again, don't rule out the possibility of Carmelo Anthony opting out of the final year of his contract. Plenty of teams will want to trim salary in case Melo becomes available, meaning the Blazers could probably get a legit rotation guy or two in return for Przybilla's contract.
Rudy Fernandez ($1.25 million) - Look, I'm a big Rudy fan. I think he was robbed in the dunk contest in 2009. When he's on, I'd be hard-pressed to think of a more exciting player to watch on this Blazers team.
But there are a few problems:
It's been reported that he is unhappy about his minutes.
His playing time is unlikely to change as long as he remains in Portland, because he happens to have the misfortune of playing the same position as Brandon Roy.
When he has subbed in for Roy this year as a starter, he's been inconsistent, to the point where Nate McMillan often opted to start Jerryd Bayless instead.
So as painful as it is to accept, a trade might be in both his and the team's best interests at this point. His stock likely won't be as high as it was last offseason, but his three-point shooting ability should make him attractive to many teams. He's still on his rookie contract, meaning it's very likely the Blazers would attempt to package him with either Webster or Przybilla in order to get a higher return on any trade.
Rudy is a fan favorite, and I fully expect him to become a star with another team, but there just aren't enough minutes to go around when you share a position with a budding superstar of Roy's caliber.
II. What Are the Blazers' Needs?
The Blazers are in the fortunate position of having their starting lineup basically locked up: Miller at point guard, Roy at shooting guard, Batum at small forward, Aldridge at power forward, and Oden at center.
With Camby also under contract for next year, I don't expect the Blazers to be in the market for a center. Small forward isn't a major need either, as Webster is a more-than-capable backup that's signed for the next few years.
So what does that leave?
Point Guard: Unless they have the opportunity to acquire, say, a Devin Harris, any point guard they trade for will be coming off the bench. The idea here would be to find a backup for Miller who's more of a pass-first guy than Bayless. Rarely-used rookie Patty Mills is an option, but I don't see him getting major minutes.
Backup Shooting Guard: With Roy, a borderline top-10 player, signed to a brand new five-year extension, we're talking strictly backup minutes at the 2. Fernandez is likely on his way out, and Bayless, while solid, is undersized to play the 2. Bayless can fill the position fine in a pinch, and Webster can play some shooting guard as well, so this need isn't that urgent, but it couldn't hurt to get a legit full-time backup for the franchise superstar.
Backup Power Forward: LaMarcus Aldridge has the starting job sewn up for the foreseeable future, but he needs a consistent backup. Rookies Jeff Pendergraph and Dante Cunningham had promising debuts, but neither did enough to establish himself as a clear second-unit frontcourt anchor. It's always possible the Blazers will re-sign Juwan Howard, who was pretty decent this year, but he's 37 years old. And given this team's almost comical track record with injuries, there's no such thing as too many bigs on the roster.
III. So, Who Might the Blazers Target?
I'll throw a few names out here, some more realistic than others.
Devin Harris (PG, New Jersey) - His stock may be down because of the Nets' horrendous 2009-10 season, but Harris is a former All-Star who, at 27, is still in his physical prime. Of course, the Nets' willingness to trade him is dependent on their draft-lottery results. If they get the No. 1 pick and take Kentucky phenom John Wall, Harris immediately becomes expendable. The Nets have cap room and are expected to attempt to woo LeBron James or Dwyane Wade this summer. However, in the likely event that they don't land one of the elite free agents, new owner Mikhail Prohkorov could opt to go the salary-dumping route to gear up for the Melo sweepstakes in 2011. Enter Joel Przybilla's $7.4 million expiring contract. Package Przybilla with Rudy Fernandez, and this trade could easily be beneficial for both teams. A Harris-for-Przybilla-and-Rudy swap gives the Blazers a young All-Star point guard and the Nets an exciting young player with tons of potential and some significant salary relief. Not to mention the possibility that Przybilla actually recovers from his injuries—the Nets could do a lot worse in the area of backups for Brook Lopez.
Tony Parker (PG, San Antonio) - I've heard rumblings in the last few days that Parker might be on the block this summer. Most of these reports tie the three-time All-Star guard to the Knicks, but there's no reason the Blazers shouldn't throw their name into the discussion. The 2007 NBA Finals MVP is an unrestricted free agent after the 2010-11 season, and the Spurs just gave Manu Ginobili an extension worth nearly $40 million, making a new deal with Parker unlikely. Not only that, but George Hill played well enough in the playoffs to make a strong case for a starting job, and he's still on his rookie contract. The final year of Parker's contract is worth about $13.6 million. Przybilla's contract would cover just over half of that, and would give San Antonio some added flexibility to discuss an extension with Tim Duncan. As for the other half, the two options I see are packaging either Miller or the trio of Webster, Fernandez, and Bayless with Przybilla. I'm not sure how I feel about trading four players for one, but the latter deal might be of more interest to the Spurs, who might look to get younger. Throw in a couple of draft picks and they could make something work. Parker would be a terrific fit for the Blazers—he'd bring legitimate title experience to the team at the position where they are most often shuffling players. The "French Connection" marketing campaign built around Parker and Nicolas Batum would be killer. Eva Longoria sitting courtside at the Rose Garden would be huge for the team's national profile. It's not the most realistic scenario in the world, but it's something to consider.
Anthony Randolph (PF, Golden State) - A year ago Randolph was being touted as a potential guy to have a breakout season, but he was injured for much of the year and when he was healthy he didn't play nearly as much as many people thought he should. If there's any system that Rudy Fernandez is custom-built for, it's Don Nelson's, and both Fernandez and Randolph have two years left on their rookie deals. This trade would be a high-risk/high-reward scenario for the Blazers, as Randolph has a ton of raw talent but hasn't really played on a team that could properly utilize it.
The picture of who is and isn't available will become much clearer next week when the draft lottery order is announced. I stayed away from the kind of "LaMarcus Aldridge for Chris Bosh" sign-and-trades I've seen thrown around on various blogs because such a move is about as realistic as the Blazers making a run at LeBron this summer.
In the next few days I'll run down the Trail Blazers' options for free agency this summer. The extensions for Roy and Aldridge that kick in on July 1 put Portland well over the salary cap, so we can't expect them to be in the running for any of the marquee names on the market this summer, but I have a few guys in mind that could be had relatively cheaply. Stay tuned, and feel free to drop more trade scenarios in the comments.
