Trail of Tears

[TBpup]

The Summer of 2016

Without getting too much into how good or bad Neil is as a GM, especially when it comes to offering or signing FAs, I wanted to look back at the complete fallout and butterfly effect of that Summer where the Blazers spent a fortune on players that, well, to be honest, haven't worked out very well.

Allen Crabbe - Signed for 4 years/$76,000,000. The following year was traded for Andrew Nicholson and a large TPE. The Blazers will be paying for Nicholson's 'stretched salary till 2024.

Evan Turner - Signed for 4 years/$70,000,000. Played for the Blazers for 3 years before being traded to the Atlanta Hawks for Kent Bazemore. Bazemore was subsequently traded for Ariza. (assuming the smaller parts were traded for each other) Ariza is nearing 35 years old and has a non-guaranteed salary of $12,800,000 for next year.

Maurice Harkless - Signed for 4 years/$40,000,000 after Blazers had already signed Turner and Crabbe.
Meyers Leonard - Signed for 4 years/$41,000,000. Later combined with Maurice Harkless to acquire Hassan Whiteside.

So in total, Crabbe, Turner, Harkless and Leonard were signed for a grand total of $227,000,000. In addition, they will be paying Andrew Nicholson's contract at a rate of $2,844,429 for the next 5 years. To be fair, they were able to unload Crabbe for basically nothing at the cost of paying off Nicholson. So some money was saved there but still a waste of that money to begin with.

Out of all of that money spent, Portland is left with a nearing 35 year old Trevor Ariza and Hassan Whiteside. Ariza is a nice piece but isn't in anyone's long term plans, and it remains to be seen if Portland can resign Whiteside to a much lower amount that he is currently making or S&T him this Summer for another asset. They could possibly just let him go which would give Portland a little cap room this Summer.....but we've seen how that Cap Room money works out in the past.

In the meantime, this roster has ben Cap-strapped with the consequences of those contracts while Dame's prime years have been passing by. Injuries hurt this year, but those were terrible contracts to marginal players to begin with and Portland is still left dealing with the fallout.

 

[wizenheimer]

you forgot Ezeli and you forgot CJ's extension

essentially, Olshey spent 340M dollars and not an all-star in sight, and 230M was spent on 2nd string players

 

[PtldPlatypus]

 

[TBpup]

you forgot Ezeli and you forgot CJ's extension

essentially, Olshey spent 340M dollars and not an all-star in sight, and 290M was spent on 2nd string players

Didn't forget, just didn't include Ezeli because it was a 1-year contract and his ghost never suited up. But at least it was a 1-year deal. Who put a gun to Neil's head signing all of those scrubs for the full 4 years? How about staggering them out so you have an ending contract every year for years '18,'19'and '20? CJ was the natural extension of a rookie contract. That was fine. It was the next one that is the bigger issue. Dame/CJ will be over $85,000,000 in the final year of their contracts. Holy Boat Anchor!!

 

[Neil O. Shyster]

There are fans who are calling for sweeping changes. Do you think the roster needs tweaking or significant changes?

“The same people that wanted sweeping changes last year?”

(Questioner responds: I don't know. I don't know them personally. I just hear from them all the time)

"Right. Great. Well, last year was going to take sweeping changes because we got swept by Golden State in the first round and all the alarmists overreacted.
.
.
.
"But this idea that (we need) sweeping changes. Where were all these people that wanted sweeping changes 10 days ago? Where were they? They were the ones bouncing off the walls in the Moda Center when we got the third seed .
.
.
.
Relative to people back in December who were complaining that we weren't going to make the playoffs and we were in purgatory because we weren't going to make the playoffs and we weren't going to pick high enough. Right? That was the rallying cry. Then it was, 'Oh my God. They're going to blow the third seed because they're going to lose all these games. They're not even going to get home court advantage.' They overreacted to that.”

Man, the disdain this guy has for the fans in Portland. He thinks we are all beneath him. I will never forget that exit interview.

 

[HailBlazers]

Who is Torey Jones and why should I value his opinion?

 

[tlongII]

Who is Torey Jones and why should I value his opinion?

I believe he has a very popular podcast.

 

[CupWizier]

Who is Torey Jones and why should I value his opinion?

lol. I was going to ask the same question. Never heard of him as an NBA insider.

 

[CupWizier]

The Summer of 2016

Without getting too much into how good or bad Neil is as a GM, especially when it comes to offering or signing FAs, I wanted to look back at the complete fallout and butterfly effect of that Summer where the Blazers spent a fortune on players that, well, to be honest, haven't worked out very well.

Allen Crabbe - Signed for 4 years/$76,000,000. The following year was traded for Andrew Nicholson and a large TPE. The Blazers will be paying for Nicholson's 'stretched salary till 2024.

Evan Turner - Signed for 4 years/$70,000,000. Played for the Blazers for 3 years before being traded to the Atlanta Hawks for Kent Bazemore. Bazemore was subsequently traded for Ariza. (assuming the smaller parts were traded for each other) Ariza is nearing 35 years old and has a non-guaranteed salary of $12,800,000 for next year.

Maurice Harkless - Signed for 4 years/$40,000,000 after Blazers had already signed Turner and Crabbe.
Meyers Leonard - Signed for 4 years/$41,000,000. Later combined with Maurice Harkless to acquire Hassan Whiteside.

So in total, Crabbe, Turner, Harkless and Leonard were signed for a grand total of $227,000,000. In addition, they will be paying Andrew Nicholson's contract at a rate of $2,844,429 for the next 5 years. To be fair, they were able to unload Crabbe for basically nothing at the cost of paying off Nicholson. So some money was saved there but still a waste of that money to begin with.

Out of all of that money spent, Portland is left with a nearing 35 year old Trevor Ariza and Hassan Whiteside. Ariza is a nice piece but isn't in anyone's long term plans, and it remains to be seen if Portland can resign Whiteside to a much lower amount that he is currently making or S&T him this Summer for another asset. They could possibly just let him go which would give Portland a little cap room this Summer.....but we've seen how that Cap Room money works out in the past.

In the meantime, this roster has ben Cap-strapped with the consequences of those contracts while Dame's prime years have been passing by. Injuries hurt this year, but those were terrible contracts to marginal players to begin with and Portland is still left dealing with the fallout.

Fast forward to 2030 and Neil Olshey is gone and tbpup starts a thread rehashing what happened back in 2016. Some people just need to learn to move forward instead of always looking over their shoulder.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Who is Torey Jones and why should I value his opinion?

Ignore the opinion; focus on the facts.

 

[SIeepwalker]

Fucking disgraceful

 

[Eastoff]

Who is Torey Jones and why should I value his opinion?

@BonesJones

 

[SIeepwalker]

Who is Torey Jones and why should I value his opinion?

lol. I was going to ask the same question. Never heard of him as an NBA insider.

I think you are mixing up "opinion" and "facts".

But I'm the foreigner here, I must just be misunderstanding the words

 

[wizenheimer]

you don't need to be an NBA insider to do math

 

[CupWizier]

I think you are mixing up "opinion" and "facts".

But I'm the foreigner here, I must just be misunderstanding the words

huh? How am I mixing up opinion and fact? How is me asking who Torey Jones is either an opinion or a fact?

 

[PtldPlatypus]

you don't need to be an NBA insider to do math

Precisely. Fact is, the real-dollar amount saved by shipping Skal off to ATL is less than the real-dollar tax cost for this season alone of acquiring the pick 5 years ago that eventually resulted in Skal's presence on the roster in the first place.

 

[Hoopguru]

Even Riley has taken several years since James left to get back to respectability.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Even Riley has taken several years since James left to get back to respectability.

Riley hasn't had anyone close to Dame's caliber.

 

[SIeepwalker]

huh? How am I mixing up opinion and fact? How is me asking who Torey Jones is either an opinion or a fact?

Yeah alright. I guess I won't talk with about about a topic involving Bones because I know you hate him with a passion and become insufferable in any discussion remotely involving him (Or sometime you even just bring him up out of nowhere because apparently he lives in your head)

 

[Hoopguru]

Riley hasn't had anyone close to Dame's caliber.

i would agree, but why? He had plenty of draft picks. And he's got Butler now.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

i would agree, but why? He had plenty of draft picks. And he's got Butler now.

Winslow is the only high draft pick he's had in the past 5 years. Aside from that, the team's been too good to have any high picks.

And yeah, he has Butler now, and they're now battling for home court, and making more deals to try to get even better. The contrast between Riley and Olshey is pretty stark.

 

[maxiep]

Yeah, that was a tough summer. The league wanted to ramp up the cap gradually, but the players insisted it be done immediately. It benefitted the players whose contracts were up and screwed the rest of the lower end FAs in following years.

We made a bet on Crabbe, Leonard, Turner and Harkless. I would argue only Harkless even came close to earning market value.

Turner never fit and neither Crabbe nor Leonard developed into the players we had hoped they would. The market for Crabbe and Leonard was distorted by the jump in cap space. I'm reminded of the mid-90s when guys like Kenyon Martin were getting max deals because of the cap bump.

It wasn't just Olshey. Sometimes the market screws you.

 

[CupWizier]

Yeah alright. I guess I won't talk with about about a topic involving Bones because I know you hate him with a passion and become insufferable in any discussion remotely involving him (Or sometime you even just bring him up out of nowhere because apparently he lives in your head)

First, I didn't know Torey Jones was bonesjones as I saw afterwards someone else post who it was and second, I don't hate him, so go bark up another tree. You still never addressed my question as it appears you realized you were in the wrong what you posted to me.

 

[Minstrel]

Olshey has been a so-so general manager. 2016 was a pretty poor off-season. But his overall results since he took over have been a mixed bag--sometimes the team has been pretty bad, sometimes it's been mediocre, sometimes it's been good. They've been in the playoffs most years (which isn't, itself, a huge feather in his cap as half the teams make it and the Blazers have often been towards the bottom of the seedings) but they've also won a few playoff series and often been knocked off by the juggernaut Warriors.

I think anyone who says that Olshey is a good general manager or a bad general manager is overstating their case. He's probably at best an average general manager--he's put together consistently competitive teams built around Lillard, but rarely have they been really good, nor has there ever been a clear path, even notionally, to taking the "next step." He drafted arguably the best player in Portland history, but has often maxed out payroll to put mediocre supporting casts around Lillard.

 

[B-Roy]

If Olshey drafted Giannis in 2013 the Blazers would probably have a championship by now. I don't fault him for it, CJ was a good pick at 10 all things considered. But ahhh, what might have been. Dame and Giannis would be possibly the most destructive duo in the league.

Just knowing Giannis was on the board makes my blood boil a bit. Best player in the league for what will probably be close to a decade and we had a shot at him.

 

[GriLtCheeZ]

There are fans who are calling for sweeping changes. Do you think the roster needs tweaking or significant changes?

“The same people that wanted sweeping changes last year?”

(Questioner responds: I don't know. I don't know them personally. I just hear from them all the time)

"Right. Great. Well, last year was going to take sweeping changes because we got swept by Golden State in the first round and all the alarmists overreacted.
.
.
.
"But this idea that (we need) sweeping changes. Where were all these people that wanted sweeping changes 10 days ago? Where were they? They were the ones bouncing off the walls in the Moda Center when we got the third seed .
.
.
.
Relative to people back in December who were complaining that we weren't going to make the playoffs and we were in purgatory because we weren't going to make the playoffs and we weren't going to pick high enough. Right? That was the rallying cry. Then it was, 'Oh my God. They're going to blow the third seed because they're going to lose all these games. They're not even going to get home court advantage.' They overreacted to that.”

Man, the disdain this guy has for the fans in Portland. He thinks we are all beneath him. I will never forget that exit interview.

In general I'm kind of annoyed by you O'Shyster, but I I have to admit that I fully expect another defiant press conference from Neal where he talks down to everyone.

 

[e_blazer]

I’d say that getting to the WCF last season with Harkless, Leonard and ET all making significant contributions was the payoff for their contracts.

 

[wizenheimer]

just to be fair to Olshey, and more accurate: about the Varejao deal (doing this from memory):

at the time Portland was well under the salary floor so Varejao's salary was all going to be credited against that floor. It was around 9.5M, give or take. But a portion was still due Varejao, probably around 35-40%. So then, the actual savings to Portland was likely around 5.5-6M, give or take

Varejao had 3 years left on his deal. The 1st year applied to floor; another year of full salary; and a small partially guaranteed year. IIRC, he agreed to a slight reduction in a buyout so the Blazers stretched him for 5 years and the total stretch was a shade over 9.7M. Subtract what Portland saved in their floor assessment and you're left with somewhere in the 3.5-3.8M range as the baseline cost of that 26th pick in 2017. But you still have to apply luxury tax. Personally, I think dead salary should be applied to the tax first. If you do that, last year and this year, that's about 6M in tax than has to be added to that 3.5M cost, meaning a 26th pick cost 9.5M. Even if you apportion dead salary the same as other salary, that 26th pick is still costing 4M

so then, you have: acquisition-cost --> 26th pick --> Swanigan --> Skal --> relinquishment-cost. Looking with a jaundiced eye, that's 11.5M down one of Olshey's rat-holes (LOL...and I started out saying "to be fair to Olshey")

 

[CupWizier]

If Olshey drafted Giannis in 2013 the Blazers would probably have a championship by now. I don't fault him for it, CJ was a good pick at 10 all things considered. But ahhh, what might have been. Dame and Giannis would be possibly the most destructive duo in the league.

Just knowing Giannis was on the board makes my blood boil a bit. Best player in the league for what will probably be close to a decade and we had a shot at him.

well, a lot of teams passed on him as he wasn't projected to be what he has become. Just like we were fortunate to get Lillard as a redo of the draft projects him as the #2 over all pick and the following year he picked McCollum who has been projected as the #3 pick in a redo. I would challenge anyone that blames Olshey for passing on Giannis to show me some evidence that they were touting him as the player we should pick before the draft.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

Most of the people upset about today and all that were people who had already said they'd be mad if Whiteside wasn't traded, or were more than likely going to be upset at NO for whatever he did because they don't like NO.
I believe on the other side most of the people who approve of him, were probably going to be supportive of what he did no matter what too unless he traded Dame or something.
I don't think today "swayed" anyone in terms of how they felt about NO, or the state of the team.