Trail of Tears

[wizenheimer]

1) Clearly using average wins is flawed and meaningless. Nice try.

here was the "revised" parameters you set: regular season since 2016. That's 3 seasons. So explain to me why average regular season wins over those three years is flawed when that's the time frame you wanted?

I stand by my statement that the Blazers have been a top 25% team... in a small market.

Initially you said Portland was "top 3 or 4" and it's obvious the only way you could get there is by basing it on Portland making the WCF last season. And you were getting there as a way to praise Olshey. When I presented a counter-argument to that, you immediately moved the goalposts from 'top-4-and-playoffs', to 'top-1/4-and-regular-season', and for just the last 3 years.

personally, I think either standard is a dumb standard to judge a GM who has been on the job for 8 years

 

[Propagandist]

I'd pick @wizenheimer in a fight any day. He just embarrassed half the forum with ease. Well done, sir.

 

[wizenheimer]

I'd pick @wizenheimer in a fight any day. He just embarrassed half the forum with ease. Well done, sir.

most of the time I'm embarrassing myself, so that's a nice change!

 

[H.C.]

Winslow is the only high draft pick he's had in the past 5 years. Aside from that, the team's been too good to have any high picks.

And yeah, he has Butler now, and they're now battling for home court, and making more deals to try to get even better. The contrast between Riley and Olshey is pretty stark.

I'm not sure if you have this opinion or not but Riley has made mistakes as well.
Many people on this forum believe it's the GM's job to properly predict injuries and not trade/sign for a healthy player who will get injured in Portland.
Riley has had Oden, Bosh(iirc they're still paying that one insurance covers it but still a black mark especially has to be considered if one considers ezeli a black mark on NO) that former bulls center.
Norris Cole. Dragic, while productive... Did he live up to that contract? Debatable.

Riley has also been a poor drafter to the point of not even keeping draft picks.
When he does draft.. for every Wade you have a Wayne Siemens or a Jarvis Fernando.

Point is you can always look at another teams fanbase and find fans presenting facts to make their gm/owner or coach look bad.
When really unless your name is James dolan or Michael Jordan. You're not bad. You're just not doing what the arm-chair experts believe you should be doing.

 

[CupWizier]

I'd pick @wizenheimer in a fight any day. He just embarrassed half the forum with ease. Well done, sir.

And who is this half of the forum that he embarrassed?

I disagree as I don't see what the purpose was in comparing a 3 year average for Portland compared to a single season average for other teams as a valid comparison. I also noticed in his wins and payroll chart there are a lot of blanks in there. Without checking as it's really not that important I would venture a guess that the teams he omitted have less wins than Portland. That's called selective stats, but if you buy it then good for you.

Here's some facts for you.

Based on playoffs have been a top 8 team in the west for 3 years, top 4 team in the west for 2 years and a top 2 team in the west for one year in the last 6 years. Now if you prefer to see negative spin then wizen is your man. Me, I prefer to look at the positives in things and so does Lillard.

 

[wizenheimer]

Many people on this forum believe it's the GM's job to properly predict injuries and not trade/sign for a healthy player who will get injured in Portland.

if there are many here who believe that, you should be able to name a couple...?

by the way, how about signing players who are already injured....like Ezeli and Gasol?

 

[CupWizier]

if there are many here who believe that, you should be able to name a couple...?

by the way, how about signing players who are already injured....like Ezeli and Gasol?

very low cost and very low risk.

 

[Propagandist]

And who is this half of the forum that he embarrassed?

I disagree as I don't see what the purpose was in comparing a 3 year average for Portland compared to a single season average for other teams as a valid comparison. I also noticed in his wins and payroll chart there are a lot of blanks in there. Without checking as it's really not that important I would venture a guess that the teams he omitted have less wins than Portland. That's called selective stats, but if you buy it then good for you.

Here's some facts for you.

Based on playoffs have been a top 8 team in the west for 3 years, top 4 team in the west for 2 years and a top 2 team in the west for one year in the last 6 years. Now if you prefer to see negative spin then wizen is your man. Me, I prefer to look at the positives in things and so does Lillard.

I'm not his agent, but he adjusted to every adjustment and used the rules set up by everyone else and just owned all of you. You change this or that and he's got you. You disagree and he's got you too. Lol. @blazerboy30 @CupWizier everyone. Just owned. Please, cut your losses, man, and let it go!

 

[CupWizier]

I'm not his agent, but he adjusted to every adjustment and used the rules set up by everyone else and just owned all of you. You change this or that and he's got you. You disagree and he's got you too. Lol. @blazerboy30 @CupWizier everyone. Just owned. Please, cut your losses, man, and let it go!

Well at least your avatar explains your rationale.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

you also can't find any basis for saying they have been the 3rd or 4th best team since 2016 either. Since then, they are 8-17 in the playoffs and have been swept in 3 of 5 series. In the close-out playoff series of the Dame/CJ era, Portland is 1-16 and have lost 14 in a row

and nope....I'm not being obtuse, simply being a little more inclusive and thorough using the gauge you used. Olshey didn't show up in the GM's office in the summer of 2018; he'll have been in charge for a full 8 years in three months time. He'll have had 8 drafts, 8 off-seasons, and 8 trade deadlines to build a team. And when he showed up on the job, the Blazers already had Aldridge, Matthews, and Batum on board. They also had the 6th pick and a heavy scouting file on Lillard who is easily argued as the primary reason Portland has been in the playoffs for at least the last 4 years, if not the 2 years prior

I think you’re missing one factor in this, what did “others teams” not just on average as a like, but team by team. Like say they averaged The 7th best record, what did GS, Sac, LAL, etc, how did they do? Im not trying to form this as an argument, just as I think that would be a more, “complete”, look at how the Blazers have done vs other teams.

 

[wizenheimer]

very low cost and very low risk.

the two of them combined for about 9M dollars in salary. That means they were paid 9M dollars for zero points and zero rebounds. They averaged zero blocks per36, zero steals per/100 possessions, and they shot zero FT's in clutch time, or any time before clutch time. 9 million dollars for all that...such a low cost

 

[CupWizier]

the two of them combined for about 9M dollars in salary. That means they were paid 9M dollars for zero points and zero rebounds. They averaged zero blocks per36, zero steals per/100 possessions, and they shot zero FT's in clutch time, or any time before clutch time. 9 million dollars for all that...such a low cost

and much of Ezeli's contract was paid for by insurance and Pau's contract was voided.

 

[STOMP]

So Olshey gets credit and is responsible for the 3rd or 4th best team last year. By that logic he's the 3rd or 4th best GM.

In that case there isn't much to be so upset about.

Lol, by that logic...

Predictably they were swept out of the playoffs yet again by teams using the same formula that had spelled their end the previous seasons. Double Dame & CJ and dare anyone else to make a shot.

STOMP

 

[Propagandist]

Well at least your avatar explains your rationale.

Right? I LOVE this avatar, although it is not how I pictured Prince Lev Nikolayevich Myshkin in my head.

 

[H.C.]

if there are many here who believe that, you should be able to name a couple...?

by the way, how about signing players who are already injured....like Ezeli and Gasol?

Unlike others I don't make it a practice to call out people on this forum.
I already said Bosh & Oden as an example of signing injured players.

Every time last year we played Utah. Members of this forum would say what a great coach quin sunder is.
If you visited Utah's forums they'd hate on their coach and wish they had Terry stotts.
My position on NO and Stotts is known. I need not repeat myself.
Let's not pretend otherwise.

I'm away I'm going to get a lot of hate for these two posts. I won't be reading all the responses, and replying to even less.
It's a hot topic isssue and I have zero interest in debating fanatics

Btw way to gloss over the part I said about how poor of a drafter Riley has been. But hey hot topic issues gotta be rite on the interwebs it's important.

 

[wizenheimer]

I think you’re missing one factor in this, what did “others teams” not just on average as a like, but team by team. Like say they averaged The 7th best record, what did GS, Sac, LAL, etc, how did they do? Im not trying to form this as an argument, just as I think that would be a more, “complete”, look at how the Blazers have done vs other teams.

sure...I could have done that but I wasn't going to invest the time. I guess, over that 3 years, you could add total up wins over the time for every team in the league and try to gauge Portland that way. But like I said, a couple of times, whether it was a 3 year sample size or a 1 year sample size, playoffs or regular season, those are still pretty poor gauges for a GM who has been on the job nearly 8 years. Judging him just by making it to the WCF, one year, is an even worse gauge, IMO

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

sure...I could have done that but I wasn't going to invest the time. I guess, over that 3 years, you could add total up wins over the time for every team in the league and try to gauge Portland that way. But like I said, a couple of times, whether it was a 3 year sample size or a 1 year sample size, playoffs or regular season, those are still pretty poor gauges for a GM who has been on the job nearly 8 years. Judging him just by making it to the WCF, one year, is an even worse gauge, IMO

Again wasnt an argument, just saying IMO it would be interesting to see those type of comparisons. I am sure I could look all that up on NBA.com’s albatross of a website.

 

[blazerboy30]

Lol, by that logic...

Predictably they were swept out of the playoffs yet again by teams using the same formula that had spelled their end the previous seasons. Double Dame & CJ and dare anyone else to make a shot.

STOMP

In the WCF.

I'll take that, as would almost every other fanbase in the league.

 

[blazerboy30]

sure...I could have done that but I wasn't going to invest the time. I guess, over that 3 years, you could add total up wins over the time for every team in the league and try to gauge Portland that way. But like I said, a couple of times, whether it was a 3 year sample size or a 1 year sample size, playoffs or regular season, those are still pretty poor gauges for a GM who has been on the job nearly 8 years. Judging him just by making it to the WCF, one year, is an even worse gauge, IMO

The context of this thread is 2016 and forward... not his entire 8 years. If you don't want to use three years as a metric, start a new thread.

You're either being purposely obtuse or you're in the wrong thread.

 

[wizenheimer]

The context of this thread is 2016 and forward... not his entire 8 years. If you don't want to use three years as a metric, start a new thread.

You're either being purposely obtuse or you're in the wrong thread.

hey...I played by your rules...even after you changed them

 

[blazerboy30]

hey...I played by your rules...even after you changed them

You're in the wrong thread, champ.

 

[kjironman1]

So this is where all the cool kids are hanging. How did i miss this thread? Nice to see ya @dviss1

 

[wizenheimer]

You're in the wrong thread, champ.

are you now the czar of a thread you didn't create, with the power to veto posts you don't like?

I don't think so.

 

[blazerboy30]

are you now the czar of a thread you didn't create, with the power to veto posts you don't like?

I don't think so.

Context matters.

Maybe re-read the original post.

 

[wizenheimer]

Context matters.

Maybe re-read the original post.

maybe you should re-read my posts. As I said, I played by the 'rule of 2016'...that was never written down anywhere as far as I could tell...and yeah, I took it a little further and added important context. That happens in every thread here. Learn to adapt like I adapted to you when you changed your criteria

 

[BonesJones]

A couple of points here:

+ Technically, you can trade 2way contracts. They just are not included for salary matching purposes.

+ If Portland traded the clear 2nd best player this season (Whiteside) for Batum - there's no way Portland makes the playoffs & the move is a insult to Dame

+ Portland is VERY concise of the lux tax. With Batum's contract on the books, we'd start the offseason slightly below the tax level. That would eliminate any use of the MLE or TPE. Portland's offseason would consist of signing minimum contracts to stay under the tax.

+ A hypothetical trade that would occur around the draft can easily be pushed into July for the new season.

+ Hood, Ariza, & Mario can be combined to take back a contract value up to ~$26m. (Hood will pick up his option coming off the injury - it's crazy not too considering the risk. Mario will also - he might not be in the NBA next season if he doesn't).

+ For contracts over $26m, CJ can be included (because if we take on a contract that large, they damn well better be a better player than CJ).

There may be one small scenario where trading Whiteside for Batum would turn out good. However, the probability of that is so minimal - the course Portland is taking is a much better option.

Except you got a lot wrong here.

The luxury tax doesnt limit use of the TPE.

We're talking about tradeable contracts so a two-way contract that doesnt count as anything in the trade isnt a tradeable contract.

The tax wouldnt eliminate us of the MLE, itd simply mean we'd have to use the taxpayer MLE. The difference between a $6M MLE and $9.8M TPE isnt huge, and wouldnt hurt us as bad as having limited trade flexibility.

For contracts over $26M, it becomes far less of an upgrade if we have to use CJ. Having to throw in CJ because of lack of foresight and not having proper tradeable contracts would be silly.

That July hypothetical trade would be reliant on Hood accepting his PO and I've never seen a trade agreed to in advance that includes a player with a PO they have yet to accept.

And I'd rather have Hood, Ariza, and additional 2nd round picks than Whiteside.

 

[blazerboy30]

maybe you should re-read my posts. As I said, I played by the 'rule of 2016'...that was never written down anywhere as far as I could tell...and yeah, I took it a little further and added important context. That happens in every thread here. Learn to adapt like I adapted to you when you changed your criteria

Original Post......... We're still paying for Olshey's mistakes in 2016.

Me........ We've been a top 25% team since 2016.

You....... He didn't draft Giannis 7 years ago!

 

[STOMP]

In the WCF.

I'll take that, as would almost every other fanbase in the league.

They were humiliated in the WCF losing in the exact same way they'd ended the previous seasons. No fanbase would be happy about the malaise of seeing their team treading water season after season outside contention throughout the career of arguably their greatest player ever. Happy for you being satisfied with the state of things, I'm not. I want a team assembled with parts that fit. It's getting increasingly obvious Neil doesn't have a vision.

STOMP

 

[CupWizier]

They were humiliated in the WCF losing in the exact same way they'd ended the previous seasons. No fanbase would be happy about the malaise of seeing their team treading water season after season outside contention throughout the career of arguably their greatest player ever. Happy for you being satisfied with the state of things, I'm not. I want a team assembled with parts that fit. It's getting increasingly obvious Neil doesn't have a vision.

STOMP

Fact is, we made it to the WCF while 13 other teams in the west didn't. Maybe you were humiliated but the team wasn't as it was a very good season and beyond most expectations, but don't let that stop you from crying.

 

[STOMP]

Fact is, we made it to the WCF while 13 other teams in the west didn't. Maybe you were humiliated but the team wasn't as it was a very good season and beyond most expectations, but don't let that stop you from crying.

They not me, I'm not on the team and neither are you. "Fact is, we..." lol

https://www.usatoday.com/story/spor...lazers-warriors-nasty-humiliation/3692973002/

STOMP