Trail of Tears

[kjironman1]

since Nurkic has joined the Blazers he's missed 93 of 266 games. That's 35%, or about 29 games a year. He's been a Blazer for 3 playoffs and has only been healthy in one. Now, this could all just be random, but considering he missed 50 games the season before he was traded to Portland, he has a scary injury history. Add that season, and he's missed 143 of 348 games....that's 41% of games

Sad but very true. Nurks next injury might only be a few games from when he starts playing again.

 

[CupWizier]

10 Million max. Most likely 6-8 million. Not enough to retool. This is not enough money to go after a player that will really make a difference. Looks more like 2 years and possibly 3 to me. This year and next are in the books. They have to perform with what they have.
I'm hoping they can gel with these players and really start to compete. But look at the obvious issues. Hood has to come back and come back strong. Collins has to come back and come back strong. Nurk has to come back and come back strong. 1M has to develop into a better player than can run the second unit. Little has to continue to develop and become a much better player overall. Melo has to start actually making shots. Whiteside has to not only decide to stay but sign for a contract they can afford and not pay excessive amounts of tax for. Then he has to be willing to play with and around Nurk. Ariza has to not get older? I'm not worried about Lillard or CJ. We know what we have there.
So many things have to go right at this point and they are now going to be a repeater tax team.

I don't necessarily but let's go with your scenario. How would that have changed had we traded Whiteside for scraps? Let's take the Batum trade and a 1st round pick that would likely have been lottery protected at minimum. How would that have changed things? Adding a player in the buyout market would be a short term fix as the player would be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the year. Next, let's say we didn't trade Skal, but he couldn't play this year. Sure he would have been a restricted free agent, but if Nurkic and Collins both come back fine, Skal's usefullness would have been much less needed and money spent might be better used somewhere else. 10 mil in cap space, or the full mle plus the TPE from the Bazemore trade are 2 nice pieces to fill in for depth along with the growth of Simons, Trent and Little. I guess I don;t see it as dark and gloomy as you do and not sure how it changes much with trading Whiteside and retaining Skal.

 

[kjironman1]

I don't necessarily but let's go with your scenario. How would that have changed had we traded Whiteside for scraps?

This is not "My scenario" at all.
All i'm saying is i understand why some are not happy with this and why it is not a good situation for the Blazers.

 

[CupWizier]

This is not "My scenario" at all.
All i'm saying is i understand why some are not happy with this and why it is not a good situation for the Blazers.

well, I was looking for more of an explanation why you think we are stuck for 2-3 years more and what would have changed that if we traded Whiteside? We pretty much saw what the market was for a center with the Drummond trade.

 

[kjironman1]

well, I was looking for more of an explanation why you think we are stuck for 2-3 years more and what would have changed that if we traded Whiteside? We pretty much saw what the market was for a center with the Drummond trade.

It's pretty obvious there will be little ability to make any real changes this summer or even this next year. Lets hope this group can compete. a lot of variables have to go right to make that happen. Some are not happy about those issues.

 

[CupWizier]

It's pretty obvious there will be little ability to make any real changes this summer or even this next year. Lets hope this group can compete. a lot of variables have to go right to make that happen. Some are not happy about those issues.

but you keep ignoring my question as to how that would have changed by off loading Whiteside and/or retaining Skal?

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

sure...I could have done that but I wasn't going to invest the time. I guess, over that 3 years, you could add total up wins over the time for every team in the league and try to gauge Portland that way. But like I said, a couple of times, whether it was a 3 year sample size or a 1 year sample size, playoffs or regular season, those are still pretty poor gauges for a GM who has been on the job nearly 8 years. Judging him just by making it to the WCF, one year, is an even worse gauge, IMO

Interesting question for you, Ive been thinking about this. What do you believe is a good way to stack up teams and rank them by like how good were they in the last decade (the amount of time doesnt matter just multiple seasons), I remember some Team power ranking stat ELO(?), would an aggregation of those for every team averaged out and ranked do it?
I think its an interesting conversation just thinking about the last Decade, Miami won some championships, have some bad years, GS started mediocre and became a Juggernaut. Do we count championships, purely go off of overall record? Seems like a lot of ways to go about it.
In that sense the Blazers have been all over the place with bad years and good years and a few “average” years.
Do we go purely off of stats or let our eye test get weighted in?

 

[kjironman1]

I responded to hoops. I understand his frustration.
You moved in on the conversation with this-

What's interesting is that nobody has any inside information as to what was tried and what was available as far as being able to get under the tax. The attempts could have very easily been tried but no takers.

I agree with you here. But i still understand what hoopsjock is saying.

Then you try to make an imaginative "Scenario" i never had-

I don't necessarily but let's go with your scenario. How would that have changed had we traded Whiteside for scraps? Let's take the Batum trade and a 1st round pick that would likely have been lottery protected at minimum.

I don't have a "Scenario"

All i'm saying is i understand why some are not happy with this and why it is not a good situation for the Blazers.

But you continue-

well, I was looking for more of an explanation

Here it is-

It's pretty obvious there will be little ability to make any real changes this summer or even this next year. Lets hope this group can compete.

Again i understand why people are upset.

but you keep ignoring my question as to how that would have changed by off loading Whiteside and/or retaining Skal?

Lets put it as clearly as possible. I don't care one way or another. I understand why some are upset. I'm going to hope they pull this together and this team can compete.

If you continue to ask these questions i will continue to tell you i don't care. Simple.

 

[hoopsjock]

Bro, an injured Skal is not worth all the heartache.

Franco, c'mon man don't trivialize my post.

Olshey said part of the reason for the trade was because they needed healthy bodies. So I think okay if they sign someone to the roster spot that's actually healthy that makes sense!

But then he says they will not be signing anyone to that spot and that the trade was to save money which would be undone by a signing.

Obvious lies!

How does trading Skal for nothing give us more healthy bodies if we aren't using that roster spot?

 

[CupWizier]

I responded to hoops. I understand his frustration.
You moved in on the conversation with this-

I agree with you here. But i still understand what hoopsjock is saying.

Then you try to make an imaginative "Scenario" i never had-


I don't have a "Scenario"


But you continue-


Here it is-


Again i understand why people are upset.



Lets put it as clearly as possible. I don't care one way or another. I understand why some are upset. I'm going to hope they pull this together and this team can compete.

If you continue to ask these questions i will continue to tell you i don't care. Simple.

Ok, i was merely asking for explanation why we are essentially capped at being able to improve the team. Nothing more and nothing less. We can just move on if you don't want to explain.

 

[hoopsjock]

you also can't find any basis for saying they have been the 3rd or 4th best team since 2016 either. Since then, they are 8-17 in the playoffs and have been swept in 3 of 5 series. In the close-out playoff series of the Dame/CJ era, Portland is 1-16 and have lost 14 in a row

and nope....I'm not being obtuse, simply being a little more inclusive and thorough using the gauge you used. Olshey didn't show up in the GM's office in the summer of 2018; he'll have been in charge for a full 8 years in three months time. He'll have had 8 drafts, 8 off-seasons, and 8 trade deadlines to build a team. And when he showed up on the job, the Blazers already had Aldridge, Matthews, and Batum on board. They also had the 6th pick and a heavy scouting file on Lillard who is easily argued as the primary reason Portland has been in the playoffs for at least the last 4 years, if not the 2 years prior

Just a small correction, Batum was a restricted free agent Olshey's first summer. He did have to decide if Batum was worth keeping while matching that big offer from Minnesota.

 

[CupWizier]

Franco, c'mon man don't trivialize my post.

Olshey said part of the reason for the trade was because they needed healthy bodies. So I think okay if they sign someone to the roster spot that's actually healthy that makes sense!

But then he says they will not be signing anyone to that spot and that the trade was to save money which would be undone by a signing.

Obvious lies!

How does trading Skal for nothing give us more healthy bodies if we aren't using that roster spot?

I believe you took it out of context as what i heard him say it would be foolish to retain a player and pay the tax on them if they can't play.

 

[hoopsjock]

Expept I'm not wrong at all.

1) Two-way contracts can be traded... therefore by definition they are tradeable contracts.

2) I wasn't clear enough about the use of the MLE & TPE. Portland 'could' use the exceptions under the terms of the CBA.
However, when the owner sets financial constraints, then the Blazers can't use the MLE or TPE regardless of what may be allowed under the CBA. We're starting the repeater tax in the eye for next season. It would be fiscally irresponsible to go into next season paying the repeater tax on a team that just finished with <40 wins.
Blazers recent actions speak louder than words... the key is that lux tax line. Batum's contract does not increase flexibility because we'd be so damn close to the line - there's be little that could be done & stay below it.

3) So you admit that reading CJ would result in an upgrade... glad we can agree on that.

4) Your right, trading Hood (in June or July) requires him picking up the option. It's a calculated risk to be able to have his contract available as 'trade ballast'. Given the 10% chance that any star we'd want to trade for comes on the market - that's a better risk/reward scenario.

5) Whiteside has been better than Ariza & Hood - and he's integral to this season. We need him more for this season than some 2nds & Batums contract..... neither one of us are calling the shots - so it doesn't matter what YOU or I want.

1) You'd be right if we were talking about prior to Thursday but now that the trade deadline has passed 2-way guys can't be traded this summer because they are free agents.

2) Just so everyone is on the same page here, the repeater tax doesn't start until after the 4th season of being in the tax for 3 out of those 4 years so the repeater tax will not be next season. If we finish the 2020-21 season in the tax then the repeater tax would only effect tax payments in the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons. Stay out of the tax in those seasons two and three years from now and the repeater penalties would have no effect.

Furthermore, even if they started the season in the tax next year there would be ways to get under.

3) We aren't trading CJ so as long as Olshey is the GM he is indeed untradeable, ha ha.

4) Again, technically you're right on this one but the optics of trading someone who got hurt after taking a significant discount to stay might be bad for similar situations in the future. I'm not saying we can't trade him but I don't want to do Hood dirty either. He might be unwilling to accept his player option if traded anyway.

5) @BonesJones is talking about future seasons. If Zach and Nurk are healthy then having a great backup center isn't more important than having capable wings, in my opinion.

 

[wizenheimer]

Interesting question for you, Ive been thinking about this. What do you believe is a good way to stack up teams and rank them by like how good were they in the last decade (the amount of time doesnt matter just multiple seasons), I remember some Team power ranking stat ELO(?), would an aggregation of those for every team averaged out and ranked do it?
I think its an interesting conversation just thinking about the last Decade, Miami won some championships, have some bad years, GS started mediocre and became a Juggernaut. Do we count championships, purely go off of overall record? Seems like a lot of ways to go about it.
In that sense the Blazers have been all over the place with bad years and good years and a few “average” years.
Do we go purely off of stats or let our eye test get weighted in?

good question and I don't really have an answer.

I mean, what is a better decade...3 or 4 losing seasons and the lotteries, but also 3 or 4 great playoff runs and a championship?...or 10 years of around 50 wins, the playoffs including 4 or 5 HCA's, but no conference championship?

I'll take the down years every time if a championship is part of the equation. I think playoff success is the best way to gauge teams.

I think Portland is a better regular season team than a playoff team. In Olshey's tenure, Portland is 19-32 in the playoffs, and 3 of those wins came against a Clippers team decimated by injury. For perspective, that winning rate would be only 30 wins over the course of a season; and if you toss out those wins against LAC, it would only be 26 wins over a season. Worse, in my view, is that Portland never bows out of the playoffs with a fight. No bang, just whimper. They've gone 1-4; 1-4; 1-4; 0-4; 0-4; 0-4. That's a 3-24 record in close-out series, and they've lost 14 games in a row. Fuck that

ultimately it's just entertainment and the Blazers have supplied a lot over the years. But I'm not sure where the entertainment value stacks up against other teams. I find the style and the tendency of the offense to go iso all the time is not very entertaining. The worst was a couple of seasons ago when it was iso-heavy & the ultra boring Dame's-turn-Cj's-turn-Turner's-turn-Napier's-turn-rinse-repeat. I wanted to gouge out an eye watching that shit

I think Portland is on a treadmill and Olshey put them there. It's a higher-level treadmill than most but it's still moving in place

 

[hoopsjock]

@hoopsjock has some valid points though. From a business point of view and as far as creating a team that can compete or can be in a position to get better this might well be the worst case scenario that happened. I'm going to just hope the returning players and the players they are invested in at this point can make a run. The Blazers now need to get through not just this season but for the most part next season as well to make any real moves. We don't need "INSIDE INFORMATION" to know this.

Exactly, I hate when people resort to saying stuff like "you don't know."

Olshey told us they were interested in saving money.

Olshey told us they weren't willing to undo the savings of the Skal trade to help this team.

The math still doesn't add up to me.

 

[kjironman1]

Exactly, I hate when people resort to saying stuff like "you don't know."

Olshey told us they were interested in saving money.

Olshey told us they weren't willing to undo the savings of the Skal trade to help this team.

The math still doesn't add up to me.

It doesn't make sense? If you are going to get under the cap? Get under it!
If you trying to improve? Improve!
If you are looking for a roster spot? Fill it!
If you are thinking about the sale of the team? Do something that makes the team more marketable!
I don't buy much of what he said after the deadline either. But i do understand he can't sit there and make statements that put Hassan in a bad light. Or anyone else on the team for that matter.

 

[kjironman1]

2) Just so everyone is on the same page here, the repeater tax doesn't start until after the 4th season of being in the tax for 3 out of those 4 years so the repeater tax will not be next season. If we finish the 2020-21 season in the tax then the repeater tax would only effect tax payments in the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons. Stay out of the tax in those seasons two and three years from now and the repeater penalties would have no effect.

Thanks for clearing that up.
Another point i was not sure about?

 

[SlyPokerDog]

Wrong!



You know I've actually been on team Olshey, except hyping the Crabbe TPE and then letting it expire.

After Thursday I'm willing to admit that I was wrong and this guy Olshey is a complete fraud. I didn't want them to keep Whiteside but if they were going to it makes no sense to either not explore ways to make this team better even if that's just in the buyout market or to to make a trade just to save $2 million. Especially if you factor in revenue from the playoffs would be more than that, even if they only had 2 home games.

Why would he be mandated to only cut part of the tax? If they weren't going to get out of the tax completely why would they risk the bad optics of penny pinching at the peak of Dame's powers? I don't buy that Jody only wanted to save a couple million. I'm guessing she's not happy, granted this is just speculation, but c'mon they won't expore using the roster spot after not signing a big to help the depleted roster all year?

Pick a lane! Get under the tax! Go for it this year! Give up on this year and add assets for next year! My problem isn't that we didn't do exactly what I wanted, it's that we're not committing to any one thing! They're half assing cutting salary and only kind of competing this year.

How do you know he didn't explore ways to get better?

Just because it didn't happen doesn't mean he wasn't trying.

And I'm not saying this because I'm on Team Olshey. Compared to past GMs, Olshey is bad for the forum. The 3 previous GMs we got meet and greets with them. Olshey won't.

Sometimes you have to made a move to be ready for a 2nd move.

One thing I do like about Olshey is he has the front office on lockdown. No leaks come out of there. We only hear about it afterwards when Woj tweets it.

Just because he didn't do what you wanted him to do doesn't mean he wasn't doing anything.

 

[kjironman1]

How do you know he didn't explore ways to get better?

This is the key. He may very well have been exploring. We just don't know? But he did say Whiteside was never on the trading block.

 

[CupWizier]

How do you know he didn't explore ways to get better?

Just because it didn't happen doesn't mean he wasn't trying.

And I'm not saying this because I'm on Team Olshey. Compared to past GMs, Olshey is bad for the forum. The 3 previous GMs we got meet and greets with them. Olshey won't.

Sometimes you have to made a move to be ready for a 2nd move.

One thing I do like about Olshey is he has the front office on lockdown. No leaks come out of there. We only hear about it afterwards when Woj tweets it.

Just because he didn't do what you wanted him to do doesn't mean he wasn't doing anything.

Exactly as that was my point. Hard to be mad if you don't know what was attempted. I have ideas as to what i would like to happen but it isn't my call nor do i have any information as to what they tried.

 

[CupWizier]

This is the key. He may very well have been exploring. We just don't know? But he did say Whiteside was never on the trading block.

His mention of Hassan not being on the trading block might have been to show support for him.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

But he did say Whiteside was never on the trading block.

Maybe Olshey has a sphere instead of a block?

 

[hoopsjock]

How do you know he didn't explore ways to get better?

Just because it didn't happen doesn't mean he wasn't trying.

And I'm not saying this because I'm on Team Olshey. Compared to past GMs, Olshey is bad for the forum. The 3 previous GMs we got meet and greets with them. Olshey won't.

Sometimes you have to made a move to be ready for a 2nd move.

One thing I do like about Olshey is he has the front office on lockdown. No leaks come out of there. We only hear about it afterwards when Woj tweets it.

Just because he didn't do what you wanted him to do doesn't mean he wasn't doing anything.

Sly I'm sorry but this is just a ridiculous post by you and you obviously didn't understand my point. THIS HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH NOT DOING WHAT I WANTED. Do I have to put that in the biggest font possible for people to read it?

Yes, in my opinion they should've traded Whiteside. Please show me one post where I've been mad that "MY CHOICE" wasn't the path followed? In fact I've gone OUT OF MY WAY to show that is NOT what I'm mad about.

It's a fact that this team doesn't want to field the best possible team from this point forward. Olshey said there was ZERO chance they pick up a buyout candidate. Say whatever you want about how much of a factor a buyout candidate would or wouldn't be but if they had the same approach last year we wouldn't have had Kanter. So the fact they would choose $2 million in savings, which does nothing to get out of the tax, over the possibility of picking up a player that could help them make the playoffs or get them more playoff games (MEANING MORE REVENUE THAN THE $2 MILLION) is proof that they don't want to get better.

I'm mad because no matter what direction this franchise is headed we are not doing what it takes to win with Dame. Or if we're not going to do that then get out of the tax completely! At least then there would be an actual reason why they can't add another player to the roster. Keep Whiteside! It's fine! Just don't keep him and then not try to make a run this year.

It doesn't make sense!

 

[Hobbesarable]

Maybe Olshey has a sphere instead of a block?

 

[hoopsjock]

This is the key. He may very well have been exploring. We just don't know? But he did say Whiteside was never on the trading block.

I'm talking about the open roster spot though. They absolutely did not look into filling that roster spot as Olshey said they weren't interested in putting that money saved in the Skal trade back on the books. I get trading Skal if they wanted to bring in a healthy body or if it was the difference between getting under the tax or not but neither is the case.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

Sly I'm sorry but this is just a ridiculous post by you and you obviously didn't understand my point. THIS HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH NOT DOING WHAT I WANTED. Do I have to put that in the biggest font possible for people to read it?

Yes, in my opinion they should've traded Whiteside. Please show me one post where I've been mad that "MY CHOICE" wasn't the path followed? In fact I've gone OUT OF MY WAY to show that is NOT what I'm mad about.

It's a fact that this team doesn't want to field the best possible team from this point forward. Olshey said there was ZERO chance they pick up a buyout candidate. Say whatever you want about how much of a factor a buyout candidate would or wouldn't be but if they had the same approach last year we wouldn't have had Kanter. So the fact they would choose $2 million in savings, which does nothing to get out of the tax, over the possibility of picking up a player that could help them make the playoffs or get them more playoff games (MEANING MORE REVENUE THAN THE $2 MILLION) is proof that they don't want to get better.

I'm mad because no matter what direction this franchise is headed we are not doing what it takes to win with Dame. Or if we're not going to do that then get out of the tax completely! At least then there would be an actual reason why they can't add another player to the roster. Keep Whiteside! It's fine! Just don't keep him and then not try to make a run this year.

It doesn't make sense!

Yup!!!!!

Not trading Whiteside this year means they are more concerned about getting the 8th seed than they are with winning a title in Dame's prime. Even if I granted you that it was strictly financially motivated, there are deals they could make (expiring crap for expiring crap) that saved them money this year and still came off the books at the end of the season. Deals are out there to be made if you're creative enough.

So Ive read a few of your posts in regards to trading whiteside and I think you had at least alluded to it that you were gonna be upset if WS wasn't traded. Which is fine, but do you feel differently now?
Im not gonna stalk down all your posts to see if it was you but I have seen posts on here that were, “Im gonna be pissed if they dont trade Whiteside”.

It seems to me (and again Im not saying this was you), there were at least some people who were ready to jump if he didnt get traded. - I even understand it to some degree, I think his contract was our last big piece to trade (though after seeing the Drummond trade Maybe there wasnt much of a market for him).

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

I'm talking about the open roster spot though. They absolutely did not look into filling that roster spot as Olshey said they weren't interested in putting that money saved in the Skal trade back on the books. I get trading Skal if they wanted to bring in a healthy body or if it was the difference between getting under the tax or not but neither is the case.

I sort of get the Skal trade but in another sense, I think its a weird one that doesnt accomplish much in any direction.

 

[Propagandist]

@H.C. & @Propagandist I deleted the series of posts from both of you that were nothing but personal in nature. I would kindly request that you both stop sniping at one another.

Thanks.

100% my fault. My apologies.

 

[HailBlazers]

I sort of get the Skal trade but in another sense, I think its a weird one that doesnt accomplish much in any direction.

It's all about summer 2020. Every little bit helps going forward.

 

[hoopsjock]

So Ive read a few of your posts in regards to trading whiteside and I think you had at least alluded to it that you were gonna be upset if WS wasn't traded. Which is fine, but do you feel differently now?
Im not gonna stalk down all your posts to see if it was you but I have seen posts on here that were, “Im gonna be pissed if they dont trade Whiteside”.

It seems to me (and again Im not saying this was you), there were at least some people who were ready to jump if he didnt get traded. - I even understand it to some degree, I think his contract was our last big piece to trade (though after seeing the Drummond trade Maybe there wasnt much of a market for him).

Leading up to the trade deadline I knew they weren't going to trade Whiteside. Yes, I'm mad at that decision, but all of my posts since have been about other things, not keeping Whiteside. I've even said multiple times that keeping Whiteside was fine IF they were willing to give this team a legit shot this year.

So my problem isn't that they didn't trade Whiteside. It's that they kept him without accomplishing any other goal. If trading Skal opened up the roster spot that led to the team getting better then great! But they aren't even going to explore that. If they got out of the luxury tax then great! But they weren't even close. If they were trying to give this team the best "possible chance to compete" this year (again Olshey's words) the team is no better than they were on the deadline and they aren't willing to add a piece that could possibly change that. If they wanted to compete this year but also improve future assets or get the best lineup for next year they didn't accomplish that either.