Trent.

[TBpup]

I need to see more before definitively claiming he can take over that starting 2 guard role.

Of course....but for the difference in contract, and if you could upgrade at the wing AND be better defensively at the '2' while being more efficient with less scoring....I'm okay with all of that.

 

[wizenheimer]

Some Advanced Stats:

WES ('13-'14)
- PER 15.7
- TS% 0.588
- 3PAr 0.506
- FTr 0.298
- TRB% 5.6
- AST% 10.9
- USG% 19.6
- WS/48 0.142
- BPM 1.9
- VORP 2.7
- Net RTG/100 +8.0

Trent ('19-'20 - season to date)
- PER 12.5
- TS% 0.572
- 3PAr 0.580
- FTr 0.100
- TRB% 4.3
- AST% 6.3
- USG% 15.3
- WS/48 0.083
- BPM -0.5
- VORP 0.4
- Net RTG/100 +2.0

Not to anyone's surprise, the only advantage that Trent has is he shoots the 3 more frequent than Wes did.

Trent is still 2 years younger than Wes was as a rookie - so it's obviously not a fair comparison.... but Trent still has a LOT of ground to make up to even match Wes in either of his first 2 years. Wes' biggest advantage was the intensity that he played with. Trent has shown flashes, but I'd like to see more!

we just had a summer where Simons was over-hyped like crazy and that ended up being massively premature, at best. Now, some are hyping the hell out of Trent.

I like Trent and am hopeful about his upside. But people are are miles ahead of reality if they believe Trent now, is the equal of Matthews in his prime. It's just not true. Obviously the 'prime' vs 21 comparison may be unfair to Trent. But the 2nd unit vs starter factor is unfair to Matthews. And no, Trent is not the equal to Matthews as a defender. People need to remember who it was that shut down James Harden in the playoffs and think about Trent having the skill to do that now

one revealing stat there is the FT rate comparison. Matthews tripled Trent in that category. Again, that points to the difference between a player in his prime and one 21, but it also shows who had a broader and a more developed game. Trent may get there, but there's no guarantee. Blazer history is littered with young guys falling way short of their perceived upside

 

[GrandpaBlaze]

we just had a summer where Simons was over-hyped like crazy and that ended up being massively premature, at best. Now, some are hyping the hell out of Trent.

I like Trent and am hopeful about his upside. But people are are miles ahead of reality if they believe Trent now, is the equal of Matthews in his prime. It's just not true. Obviously the 'prime' vs 21 comparison may be unfair to Trent. But the 2nd unit vs starter factor is unfair to Matthews. And no, Trent is not the equal to Matthews as a defender. People need to remember who it was that shut down James Harden in the playoffs and think about Trent having the skill to do that now

one revealing stat there is the FT rate comparison. Matthews tripled Trent in that category. Again, that points to the difference between a player in his prime and one 21, but it also shows who had a broader and a more developed game. Trent may get there, but there's no guarantee. Blazer history is littered with young guys falling way short of their perceived upside

I have my doubts that prime Wes could shut down Harden now. The comparison you are suggesting is prime Wes vs young Harden as compared with young Trent vs prime Harden.

Apples. Oranges.

I am by no means suggesting Trent is as good as prime Wes but if he stays on the track he is on, he will likely get there.

Also the comparison with summer-hype Simons is apples/oranges as all we had was hype. With Trent, we’ve seen the growth and improvement ourselves.

Some may be over hyping Trent, Olshey-style, but in this case the hype seems to have a better basis in reality.

Gramps...

 

[Scalma]

we just had a summer where Simons was over-hyped like crazy and that ended up being massively premature, at best. Now, some are hyping the hell out of Trent.

I like Trent and am hopeful about his upside. But people are are miles ahead of reality if they believe Trent now, is the equal of Matthews in his prime. It's just not true. Obviously the 'prime' vs 21 comparison may be unfair to Trent. But the 2nd unit vs starter factor is unfair to Matthews. And no, Trent is not the equal to Matthews as a defender. People need to remember who it was that shut down James Harden in the playoffs and think about Trent having the skill to do that now

one revealing stat there is the FT rate comparison. Matthews tripled Trent in that category. Again, that points to the difference between a player in his prime and one 21, but it also shows who had a broader and a more developed game. Trent may get there, but there's no guarantee. Blazer history is littered with young guys falling way short of their perceived upside

zzzzzzz your opinions aren’t facts.

here’s my opinion: if anyone is being overhyped here it’s Matthews.

 

[BonesJones]

we just had a summer where Simons was over-hyped like crazy and that ended up being massively premature, at best. Now, some are hyping the hell out of Trent.

I like Trent and am hopeful about his upside. But people are are miles ahead of reality if they believe Trent now, is the equal of Matthews in his prime. It's just not true. Obviously the 'prime' vs 21 comparison may be unfair to Trent. But the 2nd unit vs starter factor is unfair to Matthews. And no, Trent is not the equal to Matthews as a defender. People need to remember who it was that shut down James Harden in the playoffs and think about Trent having the skill to do that now

one revealing stat there is the FT rate comparison. Matthews tripled Trent in that category. Again, that points to the difference between a player in his prime and one 21, but it also shows who had a broader and a more developed game. Trent may get there, but there's no guarantee. Blazer history is littered with young guys falling way short of their perceived upside

Oh FFS...Its a player COMPARISON. Doesnt mean that he's exactly Wes Matthews, so your random usage of 'FT Rate' isnt needed. Maybe one guy said he's as good as prime Wes, but you said "people", and just went on a rant about people overhyping him by comparing him to Wes.

 

[TBpup]

If the Blazers ignore Trent the way they did last night, there won't be much to compare, He may have got 1-2 shots last night in the offense, a couple buzzer beaters against the clock, an Iso (dunk), and a couple other random shots. With Dame/CJ, he was an afterthought. That is not what I want to see.

 

[illmatic99]

If the Blazers ignore Trent the way they did last night, there won't be much to compare, He may have got 1-2 shots last night in the offense, a couple buzzer beaters against the clock, an Iso (dunk), and a couple other random shots. With Dame/CJ, he was an afterthought. That is not what I want to see.

We won in a blowout because of Dame/CJ.

And the shot distribution was terrific.

And Gary played 28 mpg. Not sure what you're griping about.

 

[CupWizier]

If the Blazers ignore Trent the way they did last night, there won't be much to compare, He may have got 1-2 shots last night in the offense, a couple buzzer beaters against the clock, an Iso (dunk), and a couple other random shots. With Dame/CJ, he was an afterthought. That is not what I want to see.

Ignore him? Trent got 7 shots and pretty much bricked all but one (a dunk). It's no big deal as all players (and more so with young ones) will have some up and down games, but to fault the team for not getting Trent more shots when the scoring was very well spread is ludicrous.

 

[James lamphear]

Trent did some little things last night like 4 assist and 5 rebounds. We didn't need his scoring last night I believe we had 4 guys over 20 points last night. Plus he young and still little streaky in his shooting. But when he gets it going then he can points up in a hurry.

 

[wizenheimer]

Oh FFS...Its a player COMPARISON. Doesnt mean that he's exactly Wes Matthews, so your random usage of 'FT Rate' isnt needed. Maybe one guy said he's as good as prime Wes, but you said "people", and just went on a rant about people overhyping him by comparing him to Wes.

I think maybe you and Scalma are too quick to assume I'm bashing Trent when I simply say Trent, now, is not as good as prime Matthews

you might also review this thread and read some of the other things I've said in it:

I compared Trent this year to Klay Thompson in his 1st season offering some optimism about Trent. I don't know how to link it but it's on page 6 of this thread
****************************************************

Scalma said: "I think its the perfect time to bring this allll the way around and say Trent is the ideal guard to play next to Lillard. Doesn’t need the ball but can still get his own shot if need be, plus shooter, defends, ideal size."

I replied: "agree...and we already have a template: I think the Dame/Matthews pairing had a better mesh than the Dame/CJ pairing"
*************************************************

Scalma said: "Trent is now second on the team in OBPM"

I replied: "I'm not sure if you noticed but earlier in the thread I posted some spot-up shooting numbers. Both Dame and CJ are in the 86th percentile in spot-up shooting scoring 1.19 points/possession. That's pretty damn good. Well, Trent is in the 96th percentile scoring 1.29 points/possession. That's elite, but of course, we need to see if he cools down (likely) and if teams scout him and adjust defense"
*******************************************************

tlongll said: "He didn’t shoot well tonight"

I replied: nope....but the two baskets he did make were those turn-around-fade-away-post-ups. That will be a weapon for him if he can make that shot consistently. There are enough small guards in the league he should be able to post-up a lot
*****************************************************
I also said: "ideally, CJ would be traded for an upgrade at one of the forward positions and some significant cap-relief...and maybe a pick. And Trent moves into the starting line-up, kind of replicating a Matthews or a poor man's Klay Thompson. But the Trent part of that equation is still premature hope at this point"
***************************************************

in other words, I'm on the Trent bandwagon; I just want the brakes applied a little when the wagon veers onto the street that says he's as good as Matthews. He may get there, but he's not there yet (and do I really need to put IMO at then end of that?)

also, it's worth keeping in mind that Trent will be RFA after next season. If he gets some crazy offer sheet like Crabbe did, JA may not be nearly as willing to match as PA was

 

[TBpup]

We won in a blowout because of Dame/CJ.

And the shot distribution was terrific.

And Gary played 28 mpg. Not sure what you're griping about.

Who said we didn't? I was referring to how much differently Trent was used and the types of shots he got. But feel free to point out things that aren't there and call them 'griping'. #FakeNews

 

[CupWizier]

I think maybe you and Scalma are too quick to assume I'm bashing Trent when I simply say Trent, now, is not as good as prime Matthews

you might also review this thread and read some of the other things I've said in it:

I compared Trent this year to Klay Thompson in his 1st season offering some optimism about Trent. I don't know how to link it but it's on page 6 of this thread
****************************************************

Scalma said: "I think its the perfect time to bring this allll the way around and say Trent is the ideal guard to play next to Lillard. Doesn’t need the ball but can still get his own shot if need be, plus shooter, defends, ideal size."

I replied: "agree...and we already have a template: I think the Dame/Matthews pairing had a better mesh than the Dame/CJ pairing"
*************************************************

Scalma said: "Trent is now second on the team in OBPM"

I replied: "I'm not sure if you noticed but earlier in the thread I posted some spot-up shooting numbers. Both Dame and CJ are in the 86th percentile in spot-up shooting scoring 1.19 points/possession. That's pretty damn good. Well, Trent is in the 96th percentile scoring 1.29 points/possession. That's elite, but of course, we need to see if he cools down (likely) and if teams scout him and adjust defense"
*******************************************************

tlongll said: "He didn’t shoot well tonight"

I replied: nope....but the two baskets he did make were those turn-around-fade-away-post-ups. That will be a weapon for him if he can make that shot consistently. There are enough small guards in the league he should be able to post-up a lot
*****************************************************
I also said: "ideally, CJ would be traded for an upgrade at one of the forward positions and some significant cap-relief...and maybe a pick. And Trent moves into the starting line-up, kind of replicating a Matthews or a poor man's Klay Thompson. But the Trent part of that equation is still premature hope at this point"
***************************************************

in other words, I'm on the Trent bandwagon; I just want the brakes applied a little when the wagon veers onto the street that says he's as good as Matthews. He may get there, but he's not there yet (and do I really need to put IMO at then end of that?)

also, it's worth keeping in mind that Trent will be RFA after next season. If he gets some crazy offer sheet like Crabbe did, JA may not be nearly as willing to match as PA was

Comparing 2016 to the current status is like night and day. 2016 saw a huge spike in salary cap with many teams having excess money. Now, many teams are up against the salary cap as well as the luxury tax and paying out huge contracts on speculation has taken a back seat to more frugal spending. The days of guys like Crabbe getting an 18 mil offer are likely gone for the most part.

 

[BBert]

If it were possible to adjust those numbers for solely post-December, it would be more interesting I think.

But then we'd be cherry picking Trent's best couple of months and comparing them to Wes' best season. I feel confident Wes has had a few several-month stretches where his numbers were better than his stats for the whole season?

I also feel much more confident than I did last season that Trent will get there.

 

[CupWizier]

Who said we didn't? I was referring to how much differently Trent was used and the types of shots he got. But feel free to point out things that aren't there and call them 'griping'. #FakeNews

He pretty much had the same shots he had against Orlando but couldn't hit them. He seemed to be aware of his shooting struggles last night and passed up some that he would have likely taken if he was hitting more consistently. Quite blaming the team for a players struggles. Next game might be Trents turn.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

But then we'd be cherry picking Trent's best couple of months and comparing them to Wes' best season. I feel confident Wes has had a few several-month stretches where his numbers were better than his stats for the whole season?

I also feel much more confident than I did last season that Trent will get there.

We're talking about a change in role though, not just an improvement in effectiveness.

 

[James lamphear]

He pretty much had the same shots he had against Orlando but couldn't hit them. He seemed to be aware of his shooting struggles last night and passed up some that he would have likely taken if he was hitting more consistently. Quite blaming the team for a players struggles. Next game might be Trents turn.

But should tell you something about the kid if he not hitting he does other things to help the team. He shooting is streaky at times but that will improve with experience.

 

[CupWizier]

But should tell you something about the kid if he not hitting he does other things to help the team. He shooting is streaky at times but that will improve with experience.

My reply was simply to tbpup who claimed the team didn't help Trent get his shots last night. Of all games where the scoring was spread extremely well was not the game to complain about that.

 

[Scalma]

 

[JoshuaHall]

But then we'd be cherry picking Trent's best couple of months and comparing them to Wes' best season. I feel confident Wes has had a few several-month stretches where his numbers were better than his stats for the whole season?

I also feel much more confident than I did last season that Trent will get there.

I don’t necessarily agree it would be cherry picking data — it’s just the point where he actually entered the rotation consistently. He’s had bad games since entering the rotation — just not as frequently. I think rhythm has something to do with that.


In my opinion, it would be like looking at CJ before Wes was injured / after he was injured. Clearly CJ with that role excelled. Were we cherry picking data or just being reasonable and saying, “hey... it’s been a couple months.. and since he’s entered the rotation consistently, he has done this”

My personal opinion is the opposite (evaluating him based on what he does ice cold off the bench) is cherry picking data that sets the player up to fail.

In short, I care a lot more about what he has done since joining the rotation rather than what he did when he was randomly thrown in the game, just like I cared a lot more about what CJ did as a starter than as Wes’ backup.

and I’m sure you’re right that Wes had a couple months where he played really well in a row. And I’d say this, if instead of Wes coming into the league as a 5th year senior, and having a spot in the rotation... he had to park his ass on the bench, sit, as a “underutilized” Frosh out of college (by his own Coach’s admission, where I think Wes was the featured player) then we threw him in the rotation for a couple games... I wouldn’t put much weight into those numbers as I do into the numbers over the last 3 months.


For me it’s simple...

when you’re given a role and consistent minutes, what are you gonna do with them? The numbers after that date would reflect that, rather than when he didn’t know if he was even gonna be suited up or not.

Wes had that luxury from day 1, our guy not so much.

not to say that he’s better or will be better than wes; I was simply saying I’m more interested in the numbers since he’s become part of the rotation with an actual role.

 

[Orion Bailey]

I really like him.
I fear we aRe not getting enough of an eyefull though.
The Crabbe debacle.
With that said, id like to see him start next to Dame and cj take over the second unit and win 6th man every year. if he isnt okay with that then you trade him in the off season for a player in a position of need. Like a three.

I love Trents game. We need a defender that smothers next to Dame and he can do it.

 

[TBpup]

The defense is the huge difference and that can't be underestimated.

 

[SIeepwalker]

The defense is the huge difference and that can't be underestimated.

Well it's clearly being underestimated by Stotts

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Tampering!

 

[BonesJones]

I really like him.
I fear we aRe not getting enough of an eyefull though.
The Crabbe debacle.
With that said, id like to see him start next to Dame and cj take over the second unit and win 6th man every year. if he isnt okay with that then you trade him in the off season for a player in a position of need. Like a three.

I love Trents game. We need a defender that smothers next to Dame and he can do it.

CJ already plays with the bench. Either you advocating cutting CJs minutes, playkng him 1i minutes straight a half, or subbing him in no more than 4 minutes into each half, which at that point makes him coming off the bench meaningless and would only cause problems.

 

[Scalma]

I still think Stotts should consider starting him and bringing Melo off the bench. It’ll never happen but it should be considered.

 

[JDC]

I've mentioned it previously, but Gary's development may be the most enjoyable part of the season for me.

Still working on his vision as a passer off the dribble, communication as a team defender could improve and his length / reach will always be a limiting factor for him on the boards, but his combination of strength, on-ball defense, low mistake offense and perimeter shooting is a pretty ideal skill set alongside Dame.

And like we saw the last couple games, you can still do a decent job maximizing Trent's minutes with Lillard by giving CJ an early hook in the first.

I think Simons is the sticking point here. It's just really hard to put together decent defensive lineups with him in the regular rotation.

 

[Orion Bailey]

CJ already plays with the bench. Either you advocating cutting CJs minutes, playkng him 1i minutes straight a half, or subbing him in no more than 4 minutes into each half, which at that point makes him coming off the bench meaningless and would only cause problems.

and so does Dame.

im saying swap thier roles basically. Trent is often first off the bench. Let the bulk of his minutes be with the bunch instead the the starters and vice versa with Trent.

 

[Orion Bailey]

But id really rather trade him for a better position of need.

 

[BonesJones]

and so does Dame.

im saying swap thier roles basically. Trent is often first off the bench. Let the bulk of his minutes be with the bunch instead the the starters and vice versa with Trent.

So are you advocating for cutting CJs minutes, subbing him in 4 minutes into the 1st and 3rd quarter, or playing him 18 minutes straight to end each half?

 

[Orion Bailey]

So are you advocating for cutting CJs minutes, subbing him in 4 minutes into the 1st and 3rd quarter, or playing him 18 minutes straight to end each half?

id sub him around the six minute mark.