Politics Turning GA, NC, NV, and/or PA into victory (Biden vs Trump, 2020 election!)

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magnifier661 said:
My initial post was the left, media and DNC saying Georgia has blood on their hands.
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That's not the post I responded to. I responded to your comparison of North Dakota and New York.
 
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Minstrel said:
Okay! As long as you admit that you're not really trying to answer my posts, I think we understand each other.
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What I’m doing is staying in the original debate. I know you love to keep things going, maybe I do as well. Now would you like to debate against Georgia, Florida and North Dakota not having blood on their hands?
 
magnifier661 said:
What I’m doing is staying in the original debate.
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Don't make bad points in subsequent posts if you want people to only respond to your initial post, I guess. North Dakota and Florida were apples-to-oranges comparisons to New York, as I pointed out. I understand that you needed to retreat from those posts and that's fine.

Now would you like to debate against Georgia, Florida and North Dakota not having blood on their hands?
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It's impossible to argue whether they have "blood on their hands" because we don't know where their numbers would be had they done more with social distancing. That's why I didn't respond to your initial post--I don't necessarily agree or disagree with it, but it's not clearly wrong. Your attempts to compare North Dakota and Florida with New York were clearly flawed, so I pointed that out. Seems straightforward to me.
 
UncleCliffy'sDaddy said:
BFD......the Palestinians claim Jerusalem as their capital. Just because the US agrees with Israel doesn’t make it right. Oh wait, we’re America “Right” is our middle name.....and “fuck the Palestinians“ is our game.....
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Last I checked, Palestine is more of an organization (see: PLO). Personally, I don't consider them a legitimate sovereign state. Oh, and Israel has been around awhile.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestinian_National_Covenant
 
riverman said:
not a lot of European travelers or tourists flocking to N Dakota eh? Let's compare New York City and Kennedy airport traffic with N Dakota …..
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I can't even believe he brought up North Dakota for comparison. I took him to be a little smarter than that but apparently I over estimated. :dunno:
 
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It seems that instead of pointing to something coherent and tangible, many GOPers are relegated to simply offering silly tweets and memes.

...so compelling.
 
stampedehero said:
Why did we have to get involved in a Jewish embassy. They could build 20 of them with the ridiculous foreign aid our government gives away to Israel-(EVERY YEAR!!!!!!!).
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Most of our aid to Israel is in the form of military aid.
 
State polls suggest Biden has a clear national lead

Poll of the week: A new Marquette Law School poll finds former Vice President Joe Biden with a 46% to 43% lead over President Donald Trump in Wisconsin.

The poll matches the last poll from Marquette, which also had Biden up by 3 points in Wisconsin.

What's the point: One of the big questions when we look at national polls is whether or not they're an accurate representation of what is going on at the state level. One of the easiest ways to check is to compare state poll results to the past presidential vote in a given state. I did so for all telephone polls that called cell phones since the beginning of April.

When we average out these state polls, they suggest that Biden's running about 6 points ahead of Hillary Clinton's final margin.

In other words, the state level polls suggest that Biden has a national lead of around 8 points.

That's actually a little greater than the 6.6 points Biden has in the high quality national polling average taken during the same period. I should note that if we weight the average of state polls to each state's population, we get a margin just north of that 6.6 point mark. (Weighting by population leaves us somewhat more susceptible to outlier polls, as we have fewer polls from the most populated states.)

Either way, all methods agree that Biden has a fairly sizable national advantage.

Examining the state polls has the advantage of having a lot more data points to play with, so I feel fairly secure that they're giving us a decent snapshot. We're looking at more than 20 polls and more than 15,000 interviews. The aggregate margin of error is small.

Additionally, we can look at states we expect to be at least somewhat competitive (i.e. those where the margin was within 10 points last time) and those that we don't think will be close in 2020.

In the competitive states (where most of the state polling has been conducted), there has been an average swing of 6 points toward Biden compared to Clinton's 2016 result. The same is true in the non-competitive states.

At least from this state level data, it does not seem that either candidate is running up the score disproportionately in areas that were already friendly to him.

Biden has posted leads of greater than 5 points in places like Michigan and Pennsylvania. He is ahead in more than enough states to capture 270 electoral votes, if the election were held today.

We can test our data, too, to see what would happen if the polls are underestimating Trump like they did in 2016.

What I found was Biden would still be ahead, even with a 2016 sized mishap.

The polls underestimated Trump by 1 point (RealClearPolitics) or 2 points (FiveThirtyEight) in the aggregate of the states we currently have polling from. Applying that 2016 bias to our current data, Biden would have a 6- to 7-point lead nationally.

Concentrating on just the competitive states, the polls undersold Trump by 2 points (RealClearPolitics) or 3 points (FiveThirtyEight). If the polls in the competitive states were off by as much as they were at the end in 2016, Biden would still be ahead in states like Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Of course, it may not be wise to expect a 2016-sized polling era in 2020. The polls in these states that had major statewide contests in 2018 were pretty much unbiased. No matter what set of states (all or just competitive) and which aggregate, the polls were not more favorable to Republicans than the final result.
In a state like Wisconsin, the final 2018 Marquette poll nailed the final Senate margin and underestimated the Democratic candidate for governor's margin by 1 point.

The bottom line is Biden's ahead right now nationally and in the competitive states. The good news for Trump is he has about six months to change the course of the campaign, which is more than enough time to do so.
 
Orion Bailey said:
whats worse? The fool? Or the person who complains about the fool by acting the same as the fool?
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I'm complaining about Trump...you just seem to be complaining about people having strong opinions....how about posting whatever the fuck you want and joining that conversation? It's an election...I've chosen....what's worse is the administration I'm railing against...how you have not sussed that out by now is beyond me. I'm not open minded about the Republican party anymore...that's a commitment I'll live with.
 
riverman said:
I'm complaining about Trump...you just seem to be complaining about people having strong opinions....how about posting whatever the fuck you want and joining that conversation? It's an election...I've chosen....what's worse is the administration I'm railing against...how you have not sussed that out by now is beyond me. I'm not open minded about the Republican party anymore...that's a commitment I'll live with.
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Therein lies the problem. Speaking out against a "politician" with facts still equals hate speech in the minds of their followers. And it doesn't matter which party we are talking about, both sides will jump your ass in order to lick their politicians ass.

It's so freaking illogical it hurts. :lollipop:
 
riverman said:
I'm complaining about Trump...you just seem to be complaining about people having strong opinions....how about posting whatever the fuck you want and joining that conversation? It's an election...I've chosen....what's worse is the administration I'm railing against...how you have not sussed that out by now is beyond me. I'm not open minded about the Republican party anymore...that's a commitment I'll live with.
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you want me to join the conversation but then admit you are not open minded...

lol.
For your info Trump isnt the whole republican party, bit im sure that will not sink in to a Closed mind...

no point in discussing. Your not discussing. You are ranting...

with a self admitted closed mind. You post what you want and ill post what i want.
 
Orion Bailey said:
you want me to join the conversation but them. aim your not open minded...

lol.
For your info Trump isnt the whole republican party, bit im sure that will not sink in to. Closed mind...

no point in discussing. Your not discussing. You are ranting...

with a self admitted closed mind. You post what you want and ill post what i want.
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choices....I'm not straddling the fence this election...and I will...gloves off...I'm angry at the GOP and Trump and that decision is made. Just talk about the candidtes please and leave the forum members out of the complaint then....it's a theme that is really going nowhere....the hypocrisy hunt …..fuck all that. I don't need to be objective about Trump...knock yourself out...he cried wolf way too many times to have any semblance of reasonable doubt
 
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