Politics Turning GA, NC, NV, and/or PA into victory (Biden vs Trump, 2020 election!)

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How Trump Compares: Overall, U.S. GDP growth has averaged about 0.95% during Trump’s first term in office. Here’s a look at how that GDP growth stacks up to his predecessor, President Barack Obama:

  • 2009: -2.5%

  • 2010: +2.6%

  • 2011: +1.6%

  • 2012: +2.2%

  • 2013: +1.8%

  • 2014: +2.5%

  • 2015: +3.1%

  • 2016: +1.7%
In his eight years in office, U.S. GDP growth averaged 1.62% under Obama, about 70% higher than Trump’s growth rate.

Here’s a look at average GDP growth rates under the last six U.S. presidents:

  • Jimmy Carter (D): 3.25%

  • Ronald Reagan (R): 3.48%

  • George H.W. Bush (R): 2.25%

  • Bill Clinton (D): 3.88%

  • George W. Bush (R): 2.2%

  • Barack Obama (D): 1.62%

  • Donald Trump (R): 0.95%
In his first four years in office, Trump has had by far the lowest average U.S. GDP growth rate of any of the last seven U.S. presidents.

Overall, U.S. GDP growth was highest under Clinton and Reagan in this group. GDP growth was lowest under Trump and Obama. However it is realistic to assume
If Obama had started with even just a reasonably strong economy his numbers would be much better. That -2.5% in his first year was tough to overcome.
 
Somebody explain to me the polls. Do I take them serious? And which ones. Why do the few that we don't speak of on here post polls that show Trump way ahead? What were they like last election at this point for comparison???
 
Watching this right now getting ready for Tuesday.

 
THE HCP said:
Somebody explain to me the polls. Do I take them serious? And which ones. Why do the few that we don't speak of on here post polls that show Trump way ahead? What were they like last election at this point for comparison???
Click to expand...
Click thru the states here to see individual polls.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

According to them, most pollsters have refined the way they collect data to take into account not just age and race, but also things like education as part of their demographic breakdowns. This wasn't the case in 2016 when most polls completely ignored non-college White males and their turnout/support for Trump. But there seems to always be a silent majority of Trump voters who are seemingly ashamed of admitting to voting for him, so we can't always trust the numbers.

I'm much more interested in actual voter turnout though. https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

The voter turnout and the party breakdowns in some states are ACTUAL votes, not a projection based on small sample size.
 
THE HCP said:
Somebody explain to me the polls. Do I take them serious? And which ones. Why do the few that we don't speak of on here post polls that show Trump way ahead? What were they like last election at this point for comparison???
Click to expand...

Polls have error margins. So, a poll showing a small lead could mean that candidate is actually behind. Its hard to trust polls. Some of these polls show Biden with larger leads then Clinton had in 2016, far larger, so its easy to say Biden is going to win. But, it is hard to say. Polls are not an exact measurement. They are a small representation of a larger group. When you poll a small amount of people and use that as measurement of the voting population as a whole there are going to be errors.
 
I have colleagues in various states who aren't voting. As far as I know, they lean progressive and. And when I ask why, they say their vote won't matter.

Really not sure how to convince them without creating a weird work environment.
 
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