Politics Ukraine / Russia (9 Viewers)

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Lanny said:
Shooting and killing of civilians is totally unforgivable. I hope you capture and hang ALL of the participating in this unjust war high ranking Russian army officers.
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Ukraine is serious about identifying these guys and if captured they have been prosecuting them.
 
I stole them is comment from Reddit.
Answer: Yes, Russia is actually losing the war in Ukraine. The analysis from [The Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/) is some of the best and leased biased coverage around. To oversimplify, Russia's initial invasion went disastrously badly for Russia due to a total lack of preparation and logistics, military capabilities that are essentially fictional, and poor training.

The invasion was kept secret from all but the highest levels of the Russian army and disguised as a training exercise, so the people in charge of supply didn't know they needed to stockpile fuel, ammunition, and food to supply an actual invasion. So basically the army rolled out with half-empty fuel tanks, only enough bullets for training, food for the next day, and no long-range military radios. There are some theories that units were surprised to receive a much larger fuel allocation than they thought they needed and sold the extra on the black market prior to learning of the invasion.

The West's assessment of Russia's military capabilities was based on an understanding that they were regularly upgrading their equipment to try keep relative pace with the US and NATO countries. For example, they made the T-72 tank in 1972, then every 10 years or so since they've rolled out an upgraded armor package and new round for the gun that improved protection and effectiveness to current standards. It turns out that this never actually happened, and they're still using the original gun rounds from the cold war, and the "armor packages" they bolted on were just empty boxes. The fancy Active Protection System that was supposed to shoot down incoming missiles was just a carved piece of wood that was painted to look like an APS at a distance. And when the Russians started running out of tanks and opened the warehouses that supposedly held their reserves, they found them either empty or with vehicles that had been stripped for parts decades ago. They literally had to pull tanks out of museums to put in the fight.

The Russian soldiers in general were clearly not trained and prepared for an actual war with a country that had an organized military. The Russian army air defense units weren't trained to operate in an environment where they had enemy aircraft attacking at the same time friendly units flew close air support missions. This led to severe rates of friendly fire incidents and the Russian air force refusing to fly close air support missions for the ground forces. There are reports that when they were finally told they would be invading Ukraine, soldiers were told to pack dress uniforms for the victory parade rather than body armor, ammo, or extra food.

Initially, this all combined to mean that what everyone expected to be a Russian steamroll within 48 hours turned into a slaughter as the entire Russian army walked into an ambush.* The sheer size of the Russian military meant that they were able to make gains with time, but the war quickly stalled into battle of attrition that was not in Russia's favor. This means that every day Ukraine was doing more damage to Russia's military than they were taking, and Ukraine was receiving aid from NATO countries that meant they could replenish their stockpiles faster than Russia. The only way Russia could respond was to bombard civilian areas to try to break Ukraine's resolve. This didn't work, and eventually Russia's military was so weakened that they could no longer hold the areas they captured earlier in the war and they're now being pushed back towards the border.

*Bonus detail: As I mentioned, the Russian army didn't have military-grade long-range radios. So they told their fighting units to just rush ahead as fast as they could until they ran out of fuel and then stop, the resupply units would eventually catch up to them. So the Ukraine army waited until they did this, then ambushed the support units as they tried to catch up but while they were still out of radio range. So the fighting units just sat there getting increasingly worried wondering where their resupply was until the Ukraine army had time to destroy them. It's hard to put up a credible defense when you're surrounded, out of fuel and food, and didn't have many bullets to start with. So many of these units which were in theory Russia's best trained and equipped had to surrender immediately, without even being able to put up more than a token resistance. These desperate Russian units also started calling their headquarters and support units on civilian cellphones, which got us a lot of amusing recorded phone calls at the beginning of the war.

Bonus bonus edit: I feel like I didn't give enough credit to the armed forces of Ukraine for their heroic efforts in the above comment. As much as Russia shocked everyone by how much they underperformed, Ukraine did an absolutely amazing job in terms of the individual fighting grit and skill of their soldiers. They made the most with what they had, and worked in the information space both in terms of propaganda and using all possible intelligence sources to defeat their opponents. It's almost a total reversal from 2014 when Ukraine artillery units were destroyed because they installed ballistic calculation apps from the app store published by the Russian military, these days it's Russian units doing the dumb opsec mistakes and Ukraine capitalizing on them. Not to sound like Ukraine embarrassed themselves in 2014, honestly I never expected this invasion to happen because I thought Russia would have learned from how poorly they did, but I guess not.

Late edit: Fixed some wording and poor sentence structure.
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donkiez said:
I stole them is comment from Reddit.
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How was it that American (among others) intelligence sources were so badly inaccurate? How did we not have an inkling of "fake" equipment/materiel regardless of the war or not? As big and bloated as our "intelligence" apparatus is, they apparently missed this one badly. What are spy satellites and human intelligence sources for if they can't even give us a ballpark idea of accuracy? Seems like (surprise) we've been getting lied to in order to get support for an unconscionable "defense" budget. It make be a Ukrainian war, but it does make America look rather stupid for being so unaware of Russian capabilities....or lack thereof.
 
UncleCliffy'sDaddy said:
How was it that American (among others) intelligence sources were so badly inaccurate? How did we not have an inkling of "fake" equipment/materiel regardless of the war or not? As big and bloated as our "intelligence" apparatus is, they apparently missed this one badly. What are spy satellites and human intelligence sources for if they can't even give us a ballpark idea of accuracy? Seems like (surprise) we've been getting lied to in order to get support for an unconscionable "defense" budget. It make be a Ukrainian war, but it does make America look rather stupid for being so unaware of Russian capabilities....or lack thereof.
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I think Russia has spent more convincing us they are tough than they have actually trying to be tough.

Putin didn't even know it was that bad.
 
UncleCliffy'sDaddy said:
How was it that American (among others) intelligence sources were so badly inaccurate? How did we not have an inkling of "fake" equipment/materiel regardless of the war or not? As big and bloated as our "intelligence" apparatus is, they apparently missed this one badly. What are spy satellites and human intelligence sources for if they can't even give us a ballpark idea of accuracy? Seems like (surprise) we've been getting lied to in order to get support for an unconscionable "defense" budget. It make be a Ukrainian war, but it does make America look rather stupid for being so unaware of Russian capabilities....or lack thereof.
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Were our intelligence sources wrong? This doesn't seem like something the US would publicize. If a rival country is fucking up its own military you don't say anything so they don't stop doing it.
 
SlyPokerDog said:
Were our intelligence sources wrong? This doesn't seem like something the US would publicize. If a rival country is fucking up its own military you don't say anything so they don't stop doing it.
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Imagine how much better this would be going for Russia if Trump had succeeded in breaking up NATO. Seems like some in Russia knew their military sucked balls.
 
After news of the referendums, the increase in punishments for desertion, insubordination and damage of military property, and Putins national speech tomorrow, two things happened - The phrase "how to leave Russia" surged on google searches and their stock market plunged almost 9% for the sharpest decline since February.

Even if the madman decides to do a mobilization and send a bunch of untrained men to death while he hides in a bunker playing with a penis-pump, it's not like he can pull the corresponding amount of military equipment out of his ass. At least nothing great, otherwise he'd already be using them.
 
The partial mobilization will be of army reserves, guys between 18 and 60 who have been trained at some time in the last twenty years. Won't be very effective in the short run and will be interesting to see how it affects public opinion. A very popular russian singer came out this week against the war.
Day 210. Putin threatens to use nuclear weapons and announced partial mobilization in Russia. Russia is getting prepared to hold all sham referendums from 23 to 27 September. Russian soldiers caught between Ukraine’s Armed Forces and the right bank of the Dnipro River seek ways to surrender. The Ukrainian army sinks the Russian barge carrying weapons and military personnel. Invaders illegally remove from Ukraine over 2,000 children. A nuclear security zone must be immediately created at ZNPP, says IAEA chief. Two more Russian torture chambers discovered in liberated Kozacha Lopan. Ukraine asks the world to stop Russian terrorism in the areas of the Black and Azov Seas and the Kerch Strait. EU donates EUR 500,000 worth of thermal imagers to Ukrainian border guards.
 
"According to Aviasales, a ticket aggregator, one-way tickets on Friday out of Moscow to Istanbul are starting at $2,715 per ticket. Before Russian President Vladimir Putin’s partial mobilization announcement, the tickets cost about $350."

"According to the Aviasales website late Wednesday, one-way tickets from Moscow to the Armenian capital of Yerevan were available Thursday for $4,241, with multiple stops. All economy-class tickets to Armenia are sold out until Sept. 28."
 
noknobs said:
"According to Aviasales, a ticket aggregator, one-way tickets on Friday out of Moscow to Istanbul are starting at $2,715 per ticket. Before Russian President Vladimir Putin’s partial mobilization announcement, the tickets cost about $350."

"According to the Aviasales website late Wednesday, one-way tickets from Moscow to the Armenian capital of Yerevan were available Thursday for $4,241, with multiple stops. All economy-class tickets to Armenia are sold out until Sept. 28."
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I just read that. Talk about trapped! Only the rich can buy their way out of this war!
 
UKRAINEFAN said:
The partial mobilization will be of army reserves, guys between 18 and 60 who have been trained at some time in the last twenty years. Won't be very effective in the short run and will be interesting to see how it affects public opinion. A very popular russian singer came out this week against the war.
Day 210. Putin threatens to use nuclear weapons and announced partial mobilization in Russia. Russia is getting prepared to hold all sham referendums from 23 to 27 September. Russian soldiers caught between Ukraine’s Armed Forces and the right bank of the Dnipro River seek ways to surrender. The Ukrainian army sinks the Russian barge carrying weapons and military personnel. Invaders illegally remove from Ukraine over 2,000 children. A nuclear security zone must be immediately created at ZNPP, says IAEA chief. Two more Russian torture chambers discovered in liberated Kozacha Lopan. Ukraine asks the world to stop Russian terrorism in the areas of the Black and Azov Seas and the Kerch Strait. EU donates EUR 500,000 worth of thermal imagers to Ukrainian border guards.
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Paper Tiger. All bark and no bite.
 
Day 211 Putin announced partial military mobilization, supported the referenda in occupied territories and hinted at the possibility of using nuclear weapons. 215 Azov regiment fighters, including 124 officers, are exchanged and returned to Ukraine. 5 commanders will stay in Turkey till the end of the war. Ukrainian forces likely continued offensive operations around Lyman. Ukrainian forces conducted strikes north and east of Kherson City, attacking Russian logistics chains in Kherson Oblast. The Russian army launched 8 missiles and 16 air strikes, fired 115 anti-aircraft missiles at military and civilian objects in Ukraine, damaging the infrastructure of more than 40 settlements.
 
crandc said:
I read about big protests in Russia and people frantic to leave. Maybe Ukraine can offer asylum to Russian refugees who commit to helping rebuild.
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I'd like to see those Russians put to work defending Ukraine.
 
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By all accounts on social media, every able bodied Russian with means is getting the hell out of that country before they can't.
 
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