Unless We Win Big

[blazerkor]

If we do what Dan Patrick and Charles Barkley think we could do by getting into the playoffs, upsetting the Lakers and then making a long run and for me that would mean a better showing in the Western Conference Finals or going further, then this team should do everything they can to bring everyone back, draft someone who fits and add one new piece with the MLE. That isn't the most likely outcome though, is it? Don't get me wrong, I think it is possible and it's what I'm hoping for but it likely won't go down like that. Even if we make the playoffs and upset the Lakers anything less than doing better than last season, wouldn't be enough for me.

So, if the likely happens and we perform worse than we did last season, I think this should be our plan. The first bold move we should make is trading CJ to a team with cap space (if that exists under the new cap or CBA or whatever the fuck happens to this league) but we trade CJ for less incoming salary in the form of a little younger, less gifted 3 and D wing (Maybe a three team deal that gets us Josh Richardson or a deal to get someone like him). We also keep Ariza, re-sign Hassan, re-sign Wenyen, sign a good back up PG with full our MLE and draft the best players available and that's it. So we would have a depth chart of.

Dame, MLE, Ant

Lets just say Richardson, Gary

Ariza, Nas, recovering Hood

Zach, Wenyen

Nurk, Hassan

Draft picks fill in the last two roster spots

I think addition by subtraction with CJ, getting a better fit next to Dame for CJ, getting a whole season with Ariza, having Gary and Nas improving a lot, getting full seasons from Nurk, Zach and Hassan, getting some good improvement from Wenyen and adding a couple of draft picks would make us an even more legit contender. Obviously we would still have the Dame/Nurk two man game as the focus of our offense. We would have a lot of shooters on the wings around them. I think Zach would be a great third scoring option. If we had a defensive specialist and Ariza starting next to Dame, with Zach and Nurk down low, and with all of the defenders coming off the bench including Hassan, our defense would be extremely stifling. That's a team that could contend for a championship.

 

[RR7]

I don't see how a ssimple swap of CJ for Richardson and trotting everything else back the same makes us a better team. That's a pretty bad deal for Portland. I'm ok with moving CJ in the right deal. I think that deal needs to bring back a starting 3, however, at a minimum.

 

[Orion Bailey]

I don't see how a ssimple swap of CJ for Richardson and trotting everything else back the same makes us a better team. That's a pretty bad deal for Portland. I'm ok with moving CJ in the right deal. I think that deal needs to bring back a starting 3, however, at a minimum.

I think its cohesion. We really haven't seen this team together and these 8 games I don't think will be enough. But he did say IF we make a deep run, meaning we are already contenders. Sometimes a role playing swap changes a contender to a champion.

 

[RR7]

I think its cohesion. We really haven't seen this team together and these 8 games I don't think will be enough. But he did say IF we make a deep run, meaning we are already contenders. Sometimes a role playing swap changes a contender to a champion.

If you swap one role player for another role player sure. But here we'd be swapping a #3 for what we expect to be a role player.

 

[blazerkor]

If you swap one role player for another role player sure. But here we'd be swapping a #3 for what we expect to be a role player.

But a role player that fits the correct role. We don't need a guy of CJ's level on offense, so many of the things he is great at take our offense out of a cohesive flow. We need defense at that spot and CJ just doesn't give that and we also need a spot up three point shooter which while CJ is much more than capable of being a spot up shooter he has consistently shown us, that is not what he is willing to be (the guy passes up open looks that he could easily drain constantly to set up his own iso play). So we shed close to 20 million in salary, we keep the offense centered around Dame and Nurk, we no longer have to see Dame acquiescing to CJ who is doing Dame things at a lower level and our offense becomes much more streamlined. That move puts our defense at an elite level, especially if our young guys who have great defensive potential (Gary, Nas and Wenyen) continue to improve. So, CJ's defense kills us and his offensive game (the way he chooses to use it) hurts us too. A guy who is a really really good perimeter defender and can consistently hit the open three quickly is a better fit for us than CJ even though that guy is most likely not as good overall as CJ is.

 

[BonesJones]

I think its cohesion. We really haven't seen this team together and these 8 games I don't think will be enough. But he did say IF we make a deep run, meaning we are already contenders. Sometimes a role playing swap changes a contender to a champion.

Josh Richardson would not be more cohesive offensively. Itd be change without the purpose of improving the talent level on the team and it'd be a mistake.

 

[damianlillard]

Josh Richardson would not be more cohesive offensively. Itd be change without the purpose of improving the talent level on the team and it'd be a mistake.

Yeah exactly. The problem with the roster that blazerkor has suggested is that dame is basically the one guy who can create his shot which would make our offense worse. Now if we got someone like TJ Warren or even Harrison Barnes then I think the offense would be more cohesive with Warren/Barnes being a 3rd scoring option that can create their shot if needed

 

[RR7]

Richardson, when asked to play that 3 and D complimentary rile in philly has seen his defense decline, and he shoots 33% from the field.
Removing CJ for nothing but a player worse than him doesnt make our team better by fit, IMO.

I think this offseason could be the year you do potentially look to move CJ, but an overrated defender, poor shooter on an expiring deal isnt the move you make.

 

[Orion Bailey]

Josh Richardson would not be more cohesive offensively. Itd be change without the purpose of improving the talent level on the team and it'd be a mistake.

I have no clue of him individually per say, But I could see the aspect of replacing CJ with lesser talent to balance the roster cohesiveness as a reason.

 

[Orion Bailey]

Josh Richardson would not be more cohesive offensively. Itd be change without the purpose of improving the talent level on the team and it'd be a mistake.

Wait. I went back and readx. Its not about JOsh adding cohesion per say, its about our current roster as a whole having a whole year of cohesion. Many of these guys are playing together in lineups they never have before.

 

[Chris Craig]

Trade him to Miami for a package including Nunn and Robinson

 

[blazerkor]

Trade him to Miami for a package including Nunn and Robinson

Yeah, that's a much better deal in my opinion than Richardson and it would get us the same effect that I would be looking for. I hope Miami would be interested, one of the reasons I went with a downgrade as big as Richardson is that I don't know how toxic other GMs view CJ's contract but yeah I'd love Nunn and Robinson if we could get them.

 

[Labinot41]

Dame has to go nuclear in these 8 games, and by nuclear, i mean he has to play like he did during his historic stretch. Our Schedule is fucking brutal, we need Dame at his best ever. I'm really excited to see how he will play

 

[HailBlazers]

Dame has to go nuclear in these 8 games, and by nuclear, i mean he has to play like he did during his historic stretch. Our Schedule is fucking brutal, we need Dame at his best ever. I'm really excited to see how he will play

Thanks NBA. Win out this brutal stretch and face the Fakers with stripes in pocket.

 

[BonesJones]

But a role player that fits the correct role. We don't need a guy of CJ's level on offense, so many of the things he is great at take our offense out of a cohesive flow. We need defense at that spot and CJ just doesn't give that and we also need a spot up three point shooter which while CJ is much more than capable of being a spot up shooter he has consistently shown us, that is not what he is willing to be (the guy passes up open looks that he could easily drain constantly to set up his own iso play). So we shed close to 20 million in salary, we keep the offense centered around Dame and Nurk, we no longer have to see Dame acquiescing to CJ who is doing Dame things at a lower level and our offense becomes much more streamlined. That move puts our defense at an elite level, especially if our young guys who have great defensive potential (Gary, Nas and Wenyen) continue to improve. So, CJ's defense kills us and his offensive game (the way he chooses to use it) hurts us too. A guy who is a really really good perimeter defender and can consistently hit the open three quickly is a better fit for us than CJ even though that guy is most likely not as good overall as CJ is.

We need more top end talent, not less. A one-on-one swap for a less talented player more than cancels out the "Role player firing the correct role". You're overvaluing fit and undervaluing talent. We do not win Game 7 of the WCSF last year with Josh Richardson instead of C.J.

Dame doesnt "acquiesce" to C.J. He would not be putting up better numbers without C.J. and with a worse player in his place. He'd have even more attention without C.J. though.

 

[BonesJones]

Trade him to Miami for a package including Nunn and Robinson

1. Doesnt come close to working.
2. Ew.

 

[mook]

I'm hoping the Sixers flame out this year, and that they finally decide that Embiid + Simmons is just untenable. Hopefully a trade for CJ+Pick+Collins for Simmons looks like a good deal for them, which it would be. It'd be good for us too, balancing out both rosters.

With Dame's shooting, Simmons' playmaking/defense, and Nurk's impact on all facets of the game, I think we'd be well set up to contend.

If that can't happen, I think we still shop CJ around for another star. But CJ is an all-star caliber guard in the East. We can't just trade him away for spare parts and write it off as addition by subtraction.

 

[tykendo]

Man! I'm about tired of all the CJ hate. He gets better every year. Really was key to getting to the WCF, and some are ready to ship him off. And i don't get all the love for Ant's game. Ant hasn't shown didley he can play with the big boys. Sure he had that great game. But that's it. He has regressed in almost every way, and is is one of the worst defenders on the team. I like Ant, he's a great kid, but his game is totally in the developmental stages. CJ on the other hand is a proven commodity. Very few players become great if they don't show special in games right out of the gate. Ant has had that moment one time. Time to step his game up.

 

[tykendo]

And CJ for Richardson , C'mon Man!

 

[Orion Bailey]

Man! I'm about tired of all the CJ hate. He gets better every year. Really was key to getting to the WCF, and some are ready to ship him off. And i don't get all the love for Ant's game. Ant hasn't shown didley he can play with the big boys. Sure he had that great game. But that's it. He has regressed in almost every way, and is is one of the worst defenders on the team. I like Ant, he's a great kid, but his game is totally in the developmental stages. CJ on the other hand is a proven commodity. Very few players become great if they don't show special in games right out of the gate. Ant has had that moment one time. Time to step his game up.

I like CJ. Not hating on him, I just think we could balance the roster into a better team with his value. IM okay either way myself honestly, because if we can somehow bring this whole team back, thats what I really want to see. A year of growing stability and cohesion to see our optimal ceiling.

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

Man! I'm about tired of all the CJ hate. He gets better every year. Really was key to getting to the WCF, and some are ready to ship him off. And i don't get all the love for Ant's game. Ant hasn't shown didley he can play with the big boys. Sure he had that great game. But that's it. He has regressed in almost every way, and is is one of the worst defenders on the team. I like Ant, he's a great kid, but his game is totally in the developmental stages. CJ on the other hand is a proven commodity. Very few players become great if they don't show special in games right out of the gate. Ant has had that moment one time. Time to step his game up.

Are you sure there has been a lot of love for Anf's game lately?

 

[wizenheimer]

as many can testify, especially RR7, I have advocated for trading CJ a long time. I think he's significantly overrated around here

but the trade, if it happens, has to make some sense and a lot of the ideas I see just don't. I mean, Josh Richardson?....wut?

making an equal talent-for-talent trade is a tough needle to thread. Making a better-talent-for-better-fit trade is easier, or at least it's more common. The most common seems to be trading better-talent-for-financial-relief-and a-different-direction trade.

going into the future, CJ essentially has a 4 year deal for 33M/year. Considering his production and efficiency, that's not a good contract, but as time goes on, it's probably not a terrible one either. Personally, I think Portland could do a much better job of allocating that 33M/year; but that's not going to happen as long as Olshey is GM (unless he gets orders from Seattle). He's totally invested in the Dame/CJ experiment. I wish that wasn't the case, but every 'report' we see always says Portland is making CJ untouchable in trade talks. And it seems Ant is untouchable too.

whenever I fantasize about CJ trades, I can come up with dozens that make sense. But as soon as I take into consideration the other team, the dozens of options drops to 2 or 3, and very seldom does one 'move the needle'. I probably would not trade CJ for Kevin Love, even though I believe Love is the better player, when healthy. I might trade CJ for Blake Griffin, depending on what the rest of the trade looked like (I think Nurk & Griffin would be a great fit), but again, there's the problem of Griffin staying healthy. I might trade CJ for Otto Porter. I would trade CJ for Jrue Holiday in a heartbeat but why would the Pels make that deal?

 

[blazerkor]

Man! I'm about tired of all the CJ hate. He gets better every year. Really was key to getting to the WCF, and some are ready to ship him off. And i don't get all the love for Ant's game. Ant hasn't shown didley he can play with the big boys. Sure he had that great game. But that's it. He has regressed in almost every way, and is is one of the worst defenders on the team. I like Ant, he's a great kid, but his game is totally in the developmental stages. CJ on the other hand is a proven commodity. Very few players become great if they don't show special in games right out of the gate. Ant has had that moment one time. Time to step his game up.

CJ is a really good player. He would be an all star in the East if he weren't playing with Dame. The fact is he is not good on defense, that hasn't changed. Dame has been getting better on D but CJ has been static. CJ's offensive game gets better every year as an iso scorer. He adds new wrinkles and ways to get the ball in the basket. The thing is, he won't take open spot up threes. Dame and now Nurk suck defenses in, kick the ball out to a wide open CJ who is more than capable of getting his shot off and sinking it but CJ decides to pound the rock and set up his own iso play with often less than ten seconds on the shot clock. Don't tell me you haven't seen it, we've all seen it so many times, every game for five seasons. That's how long we have seen Dame and CJ stepping on each other's toes offensively and neither one being a defensive stopper. CJ needs to be a lead guard on a team with a defensive stopper next to him, just like Dame. Maybe Richardson wouldn't be enough for CJ but I do think if it were possible to get Richardson (it actually isn't without the Sixers shipping off one of Embiid, Horford or Harris or a package that includes Simmons and others) that we would be better. Richardson is a lockdown defender and a great team defender too, the guy can also hit the spot up three, especially when open. So Richardson doesn't matter, also Philly wouldn't be the best fit for CJ because while they could use a guy who can get his own shot CJ is a lead guard. I did look at Tim Hardaway Jr. and thought he might be a good fit and that would definitely be a better fit for Dallas and CJ. I doubt you even have to worry about any of this because although CJ is an extreme threat to score from anywhere he hasn't shown himself to be a great distributor and his defense is so bad that I don't know if his contract is justified and that points to the fact that Olshey severely overvalues him so, like you, he would not be willing to take less talent to get a better fit and cut salary for the team.

For the record Ant is terrible.

 

[wizenheimer]

CJ is a really good player. He would be an all star in the East if he weren't playing with Dame. .

hmmm...this again:

Khris Middleton
Kyle Lowry
Jaylen Brown
Kemba Walker
Jimmy Butler
Victor Oladipo
Malcolm Brogdon
Ben Simmons
Kyrie Irving
Bradley Beal
Zach Lavine
Trae Young

Spenser Dinwiddie
Devonte Graham
Gordon Hayward
Eric Bledsoe
Duncan Robinson
Collin Sexton
Fred Van Vleet
John Wall
Terry Rozier

I suppose you could assume that 1 or 2 of those guys on that first list will be classified as forwards. Keep in mind though, that the forward candidate list already would include Giannis, Jayson Tatum, Pascal Siakam, Tobias Harris, Otto Porter, Bam Abedayo....

anyway, if 1 or 2 of those guys on that first list were selected as forward(s), that would still require CJ to beat out 6-8 of those guys on that list while also holding off all 9 guys in that 2nd group. He's not better than 7 guys in that first group, and it's quite debatable if he's better than every guy in that 2nd group (and he's not better than any of the forwards listed either)

this "CJ would be an all-star in the east narrative" has never withstood any scrutiny, IMO

 

[Orion Bailey]

hmmm...this again:

Khris Middleton
Kyle Lowry
Jaylen Brown
Kemba Walker
Jimmy Butler
Victor Oladipo
Malcolm Brogdon
Ben Simmons
Kyrie Irving
Bradley Beal
Zach Lavine
Trae Young

Spenser Dinwiddie
Devonte Graham
Gordon Hayward
Eric Bledsoe
Duncan Robinson
Collin Sexton
Fred Van Vleet
John Wall
Terry Rozier

I suppose you could assume that 1 or 2 of those guys on that first list will be classified as forwards. Keep in mind though, that the forward candidate list already would include Giannis, Jayson Tatum, Pascal Siakam, Tobias Harris, Otto Porter, Bam Abedayo....

anyway, if 1 or 2 of those guys on that first list were selected as forward(s), that would still require CJ to beat out 6-8 of those guys on that list while also holding off all 9 guys in that 2nd group. He's not better than 7 guys in that first group, and it's quite debatable if he's better than every guy in that 2nd group (and he's not better than any of the forwards listed either)

this "CJ would be an all-star in the east narrative" has never withstood any scrutiny, IMO

i think the sentiment is that on the east and away from Dame, gives him more freedom aNd depending on the team, his stats may increase to do exactly what you lined out.
With that said, i tend to disagree with that notion.
I think a team would need to be built around him for him to accomplish that. Not just separate him from Dame and the West.

 

[KSF-ERIC]

hmmm...this again:

Khris Middleton
Kyle Lowry
Jaylen Brown
Kemba Walker
Jimmy Butler
Victor Oladipo
Malcolm Brogdon
Ben Simmons
Kyrie Irving
Bradley Beal
Zach Lavine
Trae Young

Spenser Dinwiddie
Devonte Graham
Gordon Hayward
Eric Bledsoe
Duncan Robinson
Collin Sexton
Fred Van Vleet
John Wall
Terry Rozier

I suppose you could assume that 1 or 2 of those guys on that first list will be classified as forwards. Keep in mind though, that the forward candidate list already would include Giannis, Jayson Tatum, Pascal Siakam, Tobias Harris, Otto Porter, Bam Abedayo....

anyway, if 1 or 2 of those guys on that first list were selected as forward(s), that would still require CJ to beat out 6-8 of those guys on that list while also holding off all 9 guys in that 2nd group. He's not better than 7 guys in that first group, and it's quite debatable if he's better than every guy in that 2nd group (and he's not better than any of the forwards listed either)

this "CJ would be an all-star in the east narrative" has never withstood any scrutiny, IMO

CJ is a Top 10 player (as a #1) in the East no question. Certainly better than Lavine, Young, Oladipo, Brogdon, and Lowry (with all due respect to his championship ring). CJ is a sensational player as a #1 option. Even in the West!

 

[wizenheimer]

CJ is a Top 10 player (as a #1) in the East no question. Certainly better than Lavine, Young, Oladipo, Brogdon, and Lowry (with all due respect to his championship ring). CJ is a sensational player as a #1 option. Even in the West!

LOL....no, he's not a top 10 player in the east..that's fucking ridiculous

Giannis
Khris Middleton
Jayson Tatum
Jaylen Brown
Pascal Siakam
Jimmy Butler
Victor Oladipo (healthy)
Damantas Sabonis
Joel Embiid
Ben Simmons
Tobias Harris
Kyrie Irving
Bradley Beal
Trae Young

there are 14 players right there and no way in hell is CJ better than 5 of them. The only one he might be better than is Oladipo and that's only because Oladipo hasn't been healthy for several months. And there are several young players in the east on the way up the ladder

let's compare CJ and Zach Lavine:

Per: CJ 17.4....Lavine 19.5
TS: CJ .543....Lavine .568
Ast%: CJ 19.3%....Lavine 21.7%
Winshare/48: CJ .079....Lavine .092
Box plus/minus: CJ 0.9....Lavine 2.5
VORP: CJ 1.6....Lavine 2.4

pretty big advantage for Lavine. I think you'd have a choremaking an argument CJ is as good as Lavine. But to say he's better doesn't make sense unless you're a Blazer homer

 

[damianlillard]

Here is my dream offseason. Trade CJ, Collin, and Simons for Ben Simmons
Trade Ariza and 1st for Kelly Oubre
Sign Whiteside to a 2 year 20 mil deal. Whether you like him or no we need a starting caliber center backing up Nurk in case of an injury. And nobody is going after him anyway
Sign Dragic or Jeff Teague to a full MLE
Sign James Johnson to a vet minimum
Bring back Gabriel on a cheap deal. Draft Payton Pritchard with second round pick
Dame/DT/Pritchard
Trent/Hood
Oubre/Little/Hezonja
Simmons/Johnson/Gabriel
Nurkic/Whiteside
Now that would be a good deep team. They would be a two way powerhouse. That’s the kind of team that would scare the rest of the league

 

[KSF-ERIC]

Here is my dream offseason. Trade CJ, Collin, and Simons for Ben Simmons
Trade Ariza and 1st for Kelly Oubre
Sign Whiteside to a 2 year 20 mil deal. Whether you like him or no we need a starting caliber center backing up Nurk in case of an injury. And nobody is going after him anyway
Sign Dragic or Jeff Teague to a full MLE
Sign James Johnson to a vet minimum
Bring back Gabriel on a cheap deal. Draft Payton Pritchard with second round pick
Dame/DT/Pritchard
Trent/Hood
Oubre/Little/Hezonja
Simmons/Johnson/Gabriel
Nurkic/Whiteside
Now that would be a good deep team. They would be a two way powerhouse. That’s the kind of team that would scare the rest of the league

I think they're scared of us already but I do admit, it'd be nice to have Ben Simmons at PF esp now that he shoots threes. He would transform our defense like Pippen did. But I don't like giving away CJ. Remember- also... about that 1st you're trading away with Ariza? That could be a lottery pick if we miss the playoffs. So don't get rid of it so soon!

 

[damianlillard]

I think they're scared of us already but I do admit, it'd be nice to have Ben Simmons at PF esp now that he shoots threes. He would transform our defense like Pippen did. But I don't like giving away CJ. Remember- also... about that 1st you're trading away with Ariza? That could be a lottery pick if we miss the playoffs. So don't get rid of it so soon!

The only reason why the rest of the league would be scare of us is because of Dame. They’re not really scare of the team, they’re scare about Dame going off. Nobody out of this draft will help contribute right away. If you’re scared about the future, don’t worry we will still have Nurkic, Simmons, Trent, and Little all under the age of 26. And Oubre is welcome to come back after his deal is up. Dame has given us everything, it’s up to Neil to give Dame the very best team he can possibly have. And this is the team the rest of the league will lose sleep over with