Update on Oden's rehab

[e_blazer]

If Stern reaches his goal - a 30% reduction in payrolls - it would be suicidal to gamble that much on Oden. In a few years, I would guess that only the top 10-15 players in the league can command a $10 million salary.

Obviously, the new CBA is a wildcard that will affect the amount of the offer. Still, I don't think Oden's going to go for MLE money. Some team will offer more than that and the Blazers would likely match.

The way I see this playing out, assuming the new CBA doesn't change the basic structure of restricted free agency, is that the Blazers will make a qualifying offer before the June 30 deadline date. Oden will have until March 1 to accept that offer, unless the Blazers limit the time for some reason. I don't see them doing that because there's no incentive for them to do so. That means that once the new CBA is in place, Oden can look over any RFA offers teams may want to give him and consider accepting them. If he does, the Blazers get a chance to match. The Blazers and Oden can also decide to negotiate a new deal independent of the QO. If Oden doesn't get any offers that he wants to accept, he can then decide to accept the QO and become an unrestricted free agent the following summer.

 

[Mote]

Obviously, the new CBA is a wildcard that will affect the amount of the offer. Still, I don't think Oden's going to go for MLE money. Some team will offer more than that and the Blazers would likely match.

The way I see this playing out, assuming the new CBA doesn't change the basic structure of restricted free agency, is that the Blazers will make a qualifying offer before the June 30 deadline date. Oden will have until March 1 to accept that offer, unless the Blazers limit the time for some reason. I don't see them doing that because there's no incentive for them to do so. That means that once the new CBA is in place, Oden can look over any RFA offers teams may want to give him and consider accepting them. If he does, the Blazers get a chance to match. The Blazers and Oden can also decide to negotiate a new deal independent of the QO. If Oden doesn't get any offers that he wants to accept, he can then decide to accept the QO and become an unrestricted free agent the following summer.

By giving the QO the Blazers make him a Restricted Free Agent.

 

[Minstrel]

By giving the QO the Blazers make him a Restricted Free Agent.

For that summer. By accepting it, he makes himself an unrestricted free agent the following summer, as e_blazer said.

 

[Mote]

For that summer. By accepting it, he makes himself an unrestricted free agent the following summer, as e_blazer said.

Not to split hairs... but that would only be true if the current CBA would still be in effect the following summer, which it is not. I should have been a little more clear. Oden will be a restricted free agent for the balance of his NBA tenure under current conditions. At this time It doesn't seem as though David Stern, the NBA board of governors, team owners, agents or players have any idea if/when a new CBA will be agreed upon.

 

[e_blazer]

Not to split hairs... but that would only be true if the current CBA would still be in effect the following summer, which it is not. I should have been a little more clear. Oden will be a restricted free agent for the balance of his NBA tenure under current conditions. At this time It doesn't seem as though David Stern, the NBA board of governors, team owners, agents or players have any idea if/when a new CBA will be agreed upon.

Until a new CBA is signed everything is in limbo. I haven't heard any discussion at all about changing the basic structure of free agency, however. I think it's a pretty good assumption that the rules will be kept pretty much the same. In that case, once the new CBA is signed, Oden would be a RFA until he either signs a contract with another team (which the Blazers could match), agrees to a new contract with the Blazers, or decides to accept the QO. If he does that, then he plays out the balance of next season, whenever it starts, and becomes an unrestricted free agent after that.

 

[PapaG]

Until a new CBA is signed everything is in limbo. I haven't heard any discussion at all about changing the basic structure of free agency, however. I think it's a pretty good assumption that the rules will be kept pretty much the same. In that case, once the new CBA is signed, Oden would be a RFA until he either signs a contract with another team (which the Blazers could match), agrees to a new contract with the Blazers, or decides to accept the QO. If he does that, then he plays out the balance of next season, whenever it starts, and becomes an unrestricted free agent after that.

I don't. I think Stern's 30% reduction was posturing and completely unrealistic. I think that the end result he desires is the owners getting an NFL-type system of non-guaranteed contracts that have a bonus structure attached to them.

That's what I'd be pushing for, if I was an NBA owner.

 

[mgb]

It was obvious that Oden wasn't thrilled about doing the interview, but I didn't think he came off bad as some have portrayed him. I kind of liked the bet healthy comment. I think he feels if he can stay healthy the rest will follow. I know I feel that way.

As to the new agreement does anyone think we'll end up with a franchise tag like the NFL?

 

[STOMP]

If Stern reaches his goal - a 30% reduction in payrolls - it would be suicidal to gamble that much on Oden. In a few years, I would guess that only the top 10-15 players in the league can command a $10 million salary.

no one reaches their stated goal in a negotiation. You state you want more then what you'll settle for

and I would guess you'll turn out to be very wrong about your guess as to how many players are able to command 10M+ in a few years

STOMP

 

[oldmangrouch]

no one reaches their stated goal in a negotiation. You state you want more then what you'll settle for

and I would guess you'll turn out to be very wrong about your guess as to how many players are able to command 10M+ in a few years

STOMP

When was the last time Stern didn't get what he wanted in CBA negotiations? He has beaten the union like a rented mule every time. Why would you assume things are suddenly going to change?

 

[STOMP]

When was the last time Stern didn't get what he wanted in CBA negotiations? He has beaten the union like a rented mule every time. Why would you assume things are suddenly going to change?

did he get rid of guaranteed contracts last time? That was what he was supposed to be shooting for...

STOMP

 

[BBert]

OK, I watched the video. First of all, none of the players wanted to deal with the media day and the interviews (edit: except for the fun loving foreigners perhaps). Second of all, the chump interviewing them is horrible. Where do the Blazers finds these losers? Third, did they do the interviews in the chump's ridiculously messy dorm room or what? What a freaking joke.

 

[e_blazer]

I don't. I think Stern's 30% reduction was posturing and completely unrealistic. I think that the end result he desires is the owners getting an NFL-type system of non-guaranteed contracts that have a bonus structure attached to them.

That's what I'd be pushing for, if I was an NBA owner.

I was just referring to the rules relating to restricted free agents.

 

[oldmangrouch]

did he get rid of guaranteed contracts last time? That was what he was supposed to be shooting for...

STOMP

OK, truth time. Does it even matter? If Stern "wins", if he gets a 30% reduction in the current cap with a hard cap, would it change your opinion? Would you throw $8-$10 million at Oden anyway?

Even under the current system, I wouldn't hand Oden that kind of deal - but I would soften my position a little. I might even go for MLE money...if it included the right to cut off the fingers of any Dr who vouched for him.

 

[e_blazer]

OK, truth time. Does it even matter? If Stern "wins", if he gets a 30% reduction in the current cap with a hard cap, would it change your opinion? Would you throw $8-$10 million at Oden anyway?

Even under the current system, I wouldn't hand Oden that kind of deal - but I would soften my position a little. I might even go for MLE money...if it included the right to cut off the fingers of any Dr who vouched for him.

When I think of the way that the Blazers have had to piss away money in the past on guys like Steve Francis, risking three years at $8 million on a guy who could well be the player that puts you into serious title contention seems like chump change.

 

[STOMP]

OK, truth time. Does it even matter? If Stern "wins", if he gets a 30% reduction in the current cap with a hard cap, would it change your opinion? Would you throw $8-$10 million at Oden anyway?

again, truthfully, Stern gets a 30% reduction with a hard cap only in fantasy land... but I can play pretend if thats what you want. My hope for my favorite team is for them to win championships. With his balky knees and huge $, Roy being under contract for the next 4 years past this probably isn't going anywhere for at least the next 3 when he becomes 20.5M BREC. LA is obviously a very very valuable player and a relative bargain, but between them they're using up roughly half of the Blazers salary cap space. Unless they're going to completely blow the team up & package BR & LA for expirings and draft picks, it seems doubtful that Portland will be able to add additional major pieces to their mix in the next few years without Greg on their books unless it's by incredibly savvy trades or draft picks.

Greg has demonstrated that when healthy he is a dominant force. If they could S&T him this summer for something of real value, I'd certainly be interested. If they just let him walk, I see them choosing not to compete for championships. Probably the best move is to sign him to a 3-4 year deal (mirroring Roy's time frame) and hope that the bad luck is behind him. Certainly if he were to enter an era of health, the national media would finally have a story that they'd love to cover with Portland which hasn't been the case since the 70's. Lots of good press + a dominant team = Portland moving product which matters a great deal in Stern's NBA. The Lakers and Spurs are about done as key players are into their 30's, only the Thunder loom in the West.

I'm sure it will take more then a MLE level deal to sign Oden, probably more in the 8-10M per year range. Of course if there is a hard cap, they may already be over the line and not even have that option available... but again, that won't happen.

STOMP

 

[mgb]

I just don't want to take the chance that Oden stays healthy and leads another team to a championship while we went through all we have so far. Not that I'm blaming Oden for that, but I would be willing to gamble that he stays healthy with us rather than gamble he doesn't with someone else.

 

[BBert]

When I think of the way that the Blazers have had to piss away money in the past on guys like Steve Francis, risking three years at $8 million on a guy who could well be the player that puts you into serious title contention seems like chump change.

No kidding.