We are gonna roll the Nuggs tomorrow night

[Road Ratt]

Roll the nuggs, blaze the nuggs. It's all good.

 

[Tince]

Do you bet often? Because this is not true.

Denver has one of the *best* HCA in all of sports. Typically they’re awarded between 5-7 points for HCA. Additionally, in betting basketball being a 1 point favorite is essentially a “pick em.”

Also, despite being a “1 point favorite” the betting odds were in favor of the Blazers (-105, bet 100 to win 105) vs (-115, bet $100 to win $115, higher payout because although a slight favorite, books thought they’d lose)

All this essentially means the books think we are between 6 and 9 points better than the Nuggets, adjusting for HCA.

also coincides with us being a 8point favorite at home at one point.

now tonight the Nuggets are favored per the money line, +110 blazers -130 Nuggets.
And the game 1 line was the most important because that is what people thought heading into the series, before adjustments and stuff actually played out in real time.

I want to know where you are getting your numbers because I want to bet there. The two books I've been using have had us as a 1-2 underdog in games 1,2, 5 and a 4-5 point favorite in games 3 & 4. It's hard for me to conclude that you can average that out to get us as an expected outcome of 9 points better than Denver. I would hammer a team that is 9 points better (nuteral site) but a road underdog given equal rest; would be a huge mistake by the sportsbook IMO.

I agree with you that 1 point is close to a pick'em. I think I stated that Denver being favored by 1 wasn't a big number but it doesn't support a narrative that we are overwhelming favorites.

 

[JoshuaHall]

I want to know where you are getting your numbers because I want to bet there. The two books I've been using have had us as a 1-2 underdog in games 1,2, 5 and a 4-5 point favorite in games 3 & 4. It's hard for me to conclude that you can average that out to get us as an expected outcome of 9 points better than Denver. I would hammer a team that is 9 points better (nuteral site) but a road underdog given equal rest; would be a huge mistake by the sportsbook IMO.

I agree with you that 1 point is close to a pick'em. I think I stated that Denver being favored by 1 wasn't a big number but it doesn't support a narrative that we are overwhelming favorites.

Game 1 Moneyline via BetMgM:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/sports...nuggets-game-1-odds-picks-and-prediction/amp/

game 2 (1 pt favorites) BetMgM
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ac...ries-odds-nba-playoffs-schedule-round-1?amp=1

And like I said, you’re using the data AFTER the games have been played. Our last game against Denver we were 9 point favorites (at home.) Playoff game 1 was essentially a pick em

and notice how you can’t dispute the moneyline paying out more favorably for the Nuggets (despite them being the “favorite”)

Anyway, there is the data. Going into game 1 and game 2 we were favorites to win the series. Massively favored in the case of going into game 2.
My apologies on this part; The books, going into the series, thought we would be a 9 point favorite at home. On the road it’s essentially a push. Thus, they think we are about 8 points better than the Nuggets given their usual HCA is between 6-9 points and we were a 1pt “dog”. At a neutral site yes we would be favored by 4-7 based on the data.