We could still MISS the playoffs

[ucatchtrout]

Not trying to be negative here...but I have some concerns and the biggest one is the schedule...which in the NBA always favors the home team. Out of the teams we are competing against we are the only one with nine road games remaining and only seven home games. The rest of the competition has six to eight road games left. This road trip where we play five games in seven days is going to be tough. Plus, I think we have lost something like seven out of the last eight road games. And, when we get home we will be facing some challenging competition.

We haven't been playing well, and if we play like we have been playing on the road and lose say, eight out of the nine games and then say....lose to the Lakers and Denver at home...................

Not trying to be negative. Just pointing out we have our work cut out for us and we are going to have to EARN that playoff spot.

I've seen lots of projections from guys who look at this sort of thing from a game to game analysis. I'm kind of looking at the big picture and thinking its not a lock that we will make the playoffs yet and that the team hasn't really been playing all that well recently.

 

[mgb]

While the playoffs are not a lock, I think it'd be tough for the Suns to catch us. They have a strethch of games playing Denver, Utah, @Portland, @Utah which is going to be pretty tough for them. If we win that game with only 15 games left I doubt they'll catch us. BUT we do have to win a few road games. We have to go at least 2-3 on this road trip.

 

[BoBoBREWSKI]

I COULD get struck by lightening, or I COULD win the lottery. However, I wouldn't bet on it.
Theoretically, up until the day you clinch a spot, you COULD miss the playoffs. There is only one team that could supplant us and they would have to play out of their goddamned minds AND we'd have to play like shit for us to not make the playoffs. We are on pace to win 5 or 6 more games than phoenix with 14 and 15 games left. If we played .500 ball, they'd have to play near 1.000 to beat us out.

I was going to post the same type of response.

 

[Sinobas]

As long as we win most of our home games, and eek out 3-4 road victories, we'll be fine. Also, Oden coming back will be huge. I'm not worried about missing the playoffs, but more about being whipped in the ass during the playoffs.

 

[Денг Гордон]

Suns look toast. I predicted the demise of the Suns before the season. Now they just have to complete my prophecy by trading away Amare Stoudemire.

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

The Suns have folded their tent. We're in. Bring on the cheap shot Lakers.

 

[MIXUM]

i said this a while back.... i have a bad feeling about this team. they just dont have enough scoring IMO. Also we better pray that its doesnt come down to the last 4 games cause the suns have all easy easy games vs the griz, kings, wolves.

 

[free_lafrentz]

We COULD win the CHAMPIONSHIP...

and

MIXUM could GO AWAY.....

 

[alex42083]

Even if we go 8-8 the rest of the way to put us at 49-33, you do know Phoenix would have to go 14-1 the rest of the way to finish ahead of us... lol.

 

[Toko]

The Suns are done. You made the Playoffs. Congratz.

 

[HailBlazers]

The Suns are done. You made the Playoffs. Congratz.

YES!!! It was all apart of the sinister plan by the blazers management to send Terry Porter into Phoenix and have him fuck with the flow of the team so they accumulate enough losses to kick them out of contention. Terry is a Blazer for Life!


Suns are toast.

 

[free_lafrentz]

The Suns are done. You made the Playoffs. Congratz.

THanks! I'm looking forward to watching Portland compete in the post-season for the first time in a few years!

 

[Toko]

THanks! I'm looking forward to watching Portland compete in the post-season for the first time in a few years!

Just don't set yourself for too much disappointment - don't think they'll win a round, but as long as they get some experience, they'll get better, and next year, who knows.

 

[crowTrobot]

Even if we go 8-8 the rest of the way to put us at 49-33, you do know Phoenix would have to go 14-1 the rest of the way to finish ahead of us... lol.

except there is no realistic scenario where they would catch us and not hold the tiebreaker.

so any of these = suns in

Blazers Suns
8-8 13-2
7-9 12-3
6-10 11-4
5-11 10-5

it's a longshot but the way we are playing on the road the suns definitely aren't toast just yet.

 

[free_lafrentz]

Just don't set yourself for too much disappointment - don't think they'll win a round, but as long as they get some experience, they'll get better, and next year, who knows.

I'm just glad we're relevant again.

 

[OddEnormous]

Not trying to be negative here...but I have some concerns and the biggest one is the schedule...which in the NBA always favors the home team. Out of the teams we are competing against we are the only one with nine road games remaining and only seven home games. The rest of the competition has six to eight road games left. This road trip where we play five games in seven days is going to be tough. Plus, I think we have lost something like seven out of the last eight road games. And, when we get home we will be facing some challenging competition.

We haven't been playing well, and if we play like we have been playing on the road and lose say, eight out of the nine games and then say....lose to the Lakers and Denver at home...................

Not trying to be negative. Just pointing out we have our work cut out for us and we are going to have to EARN that playoff spot.

I've seen lots of projections from guys who look at this sort of thing from a game to game analysis. I'm kind of looking at the big picture and thinking its not a lock that we will make the playoffs yet and that the team hasn't really been playing all that well recently.

Hay! R yu tryeen tu bea negatuv?

 

[MARIS61]

Let's be serious.

We could not possibly miss the playoffs.

 

[drexlersdad]

except there is no realistic scenario where they would catch us and not hold the tiebreaker.

so any of these = suns in

Blazers Suns
8-8 13-2
7-9 12-3
6-10 11-4
5-11 10-5

it's a longshot but the way we are playing on the road the suns definitely aren't toast just yet.

these could all happen, whats our magic number then? 11?

a combination of 11 blazer wins or suns losses and we are in!

 

[andalusian]

Let's be serious.

We could not possibly miss the playoffs.

Don't be silly. Of course we could. Maybe Nate tries to read the forum, comes against some of the silly posts we have hear, loses his balance while laughing his ass off, falls to the ground, gets a concussion and decides to play Sergio as our leading point guard for the rest of the year.

Here you go. No playoffs.

They should really keep Nate away from a computer for the stretch run, I say.

 

[MARIS61]

Don't be silly. Of course we could. Maybe Nate tries to read the forum, comes against some of the silly posts we have hear, loses his balance while laughing his ass off, falls to the ground, gets a concussion and decides to play Sergio as our leading point guard for the rest of the year.

If we're lucky, he'll reach that conclusion simply from listening to Brandon Roy's recent comments about how he's strangling the team's creativity by yanking Sergio and others every time they take a risk to make a back-door pass or an alley-oop.

Sergio would lead us to a Title if given the chance.

 

[oldmangrouch]

Let's see.

Over the rest of March, we have 4 home games, and 4 road games. April has us facing 3 home games, and 5 road games.

We might steal a couple of road wins - but we are equally likely to throw away a couple of home games. That leaves us finishing the year on a 7-9 run. That means the Suns have to go 12-3. Pretty long odds.

On the other hand, if we collapse and go 5-11, things could get sticky.

 

[crowTrobot]

Let's be serious.

We could not possibly miss the playoffs.

so then i assume you'd lay 40:1 on a $20 bet?

 

[rocketeer]

except there is no realistic scenario where they would catch us and not hold the tiebreaker.

so any of these = suns in

Blazers Suns
8-8 13-2
7-9 12-3
6-10 11-4
5-11 10-5

it's a longshot but the way we are playing on the road the suns definitely aren't toast just yet.

the suns absolutely are toast and the blazers are an absolute lock to make the playoffs.

portland has been terrible on the road against good teams. fortunately, the blazers only have 3 more games against good teams on the road(cavs, rockets, spurs). portland is 10-5 on the road against teams not in the top 9 in the west or top 5 in the east(teams that have shown they are good by being significantly over .500). the blazers have 6 remaing road games against such teams. a 4-2 record in those games(and 0-3 in the tough road games) would be consistent with what has happened so far this season. so that's a 4-5 finish on the road.

i feel very confident that at the absolute worst, the blazers will win 4 of their remaining home games(and more than 4 is much more likely). that puts the suns needing to go 13-2 at the very least to pass portland. have you taken a look at the suns schedule? at portland, at utah, at dallas, at new orleans and with home games against utah, denver, and houston. they aren't capable of going 13-2. even 10-5 is likely to be beyond their capabilities.

 

[crowTrobot]

the suns absolutely are toast and the blazers are an absolute lock to make the playoffs.

portland has been terrible on the road against good teams. fortunately, the blazers only have 3 more games against good teams on the road(cavs, rockets, spurs). portland is 10-5 on the road against teams not in the top 9 in the west or top 5 in the east(teams that have shown they are good by being significantly over .500). the blazers have 6 remaing road games against such teams. a 4-2 record in those games(and 0-3 in the tough road games) would be consistent with what has happened so far this season. so that's a 4-5 finish on the road.

i feel very confident that at the absolute worst, the blazers will win 4 of their remaining home games(and more than 4 is much more likely). that puts the suns needing to go 13-2 at the very least to pass portland. have you taken a look at the suns schedule? at portland, at utah, at dallas, at new orleans and with home games against utah, denver, and houston. they aren't capable of going 13-2. even 10-5 is likely to be beyond their capabilities.

the odds are against it, but things could certainly change from those projections. what if we go 2-7 road 4-3 home including losing to them (possible) and the suns start playing inspired and beating good teams at home(very possible with the firepower they have). they'd only have to finish 11-4 and could afford to lose a few tough road games.

hollinger's computer has us about 95%, which is realistic because it reflects trends like your analysis does, but also allows for variation which you're not doing. saying there is zero chance isn't being realistic. shit happens sometimes.

 

[KingSpeed]

We are definitely not out of the woods yet and we shouldn't celebrate a playoff spot until we've clinched it. Our remaining schedule will kill us if we don't start gaining some confidence on the road. I'm happy where we are right now, only a game out of 3rd place but let's not count our chickens before they're hatched.

 

[OddEnormous]

WAYT A MYNITE!!!!!! Iv yu thynk thiz hole playov thyng iz a dun deal... juzt hope an prey thayt travis outlaw duzn't fall on a saw and kut hiz arm off.

Thiz playov thyng iz naought a lock!!!!!!

 

[azsun67]

Why do we think the suns will magically start winning now? Hey can't hold anybody under 120 points, that is not a recipe to win games.

 

[rocketeer]

We are definitely not out of the woods yet and we shouldn't celebrate a playoff spot until we've clinched it. Our remaining schedule will kill us if we don't start gaining some confidence on the road. I'm happy where we are right now, only a game out of 3rd place but let's not count our chickens before they're hatched.

why? like i said, there are only 3 more tough road games. the blazers need to gain some confidence on the road if they want to have any hope of advancing in the playoffs without homecourt advantage. but they don't need to play any better on the road than they have over the course of the season to comfortably make the playoffs.

 

[rocketeer]

Why do we think the suns will magically start winning now? Hey can't hold anybody under 120 points, that is not a recipe to win games.

and they are 1-8 against teams with a winning record since amare went down. and they have 8 more games against teams with winning records.

 

[alex42083]

Why do we think the suns will magically start winning now? Hey can't hold anybody under 120 points, that is not a recipe to win games.

They won't, unless they find the fountain of youth and Steve Nash thinks he's 30, Shaq thinks he's back in his MVP days in LA, Grant Hill finds himself in his Detroit days, and Amare finds his vision again.
They've got a brutal stretch next week. I'm not worried about them at all.