We're 2-3 weeks from deciding on President

[mook]

Just happened to look at RCP's poll of polls for 2004 and 2008. In both cases, it seems like momentum was finally decided between late August and mid-September:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ma_vs_romney_compared_to_obama_vs_mccain.html

People forget how critical McCain's pick of Palin was to revitalizing his numbers in that election. And then she started speaking without a script.....if she had not been a total dingbat McCain would probably be president right now.

Romney has seen something of a spike with Ryan, but it's not nearly as remarkable. I suppose it hasn't helped that its timing has revolved around a number of gaffes (both Romney's "world tour" and nonsense like the Akin story.) Plus, it's just not as remarkable that the Republicans chose yet another white male. It's not exactly catching undecided voters' attentions like the Palin pick did.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...bama_vs_romney_compared_to_bush_vs_kerry.html

Anybody remember what turned things around for Dubya in this election? It's a pretty striking rise. I know the Swift Boating came out pretty strong around then.

Anyway, seems like recent history shows that these next few weeks define the election results.

 

[mook]

Looking over these charts, it makes you realize how sensible most democracies are in having executive elections that span weeks instead of years. It's like being the score keeper at an NBA All Star Game--who gives a fuck until that final 5 minutes.

 

[jlprk]

After a game between a good team and a bad team, if you look at the play-by-play, it will appear that there were turning points.

But it's deceiving. The outcome was inevitable.

 

[tlongII]

I had been predicting Obama would win easily, but it will be close now. As soon as Romney wins the republican nomination he gets to access their war chest. He has far more money than Obama.

 

[Denny Crane]

 

[jlprk]

How about a chart of bouncebacks right after halftime by Charlotte in games against Miami? It will be as informative as that.

 

[TripTango]

After a game between a good team and a bad team, if you look at the play-by-play, it will appear that there were turning points.

But it's deceiving. The outcome was inevitable.

"Inevitable" is a mighty strong word there, sir... Good teams lose to bad ones every single day.

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

I had been predicting Obama would win easily, but it will be close now. As soon as Romney wins the republican nomination he gets to access their war chest. He has far more money than Obama.

I've been predicting an Obama victory all along and I see nothing yet that changes my mind.

One thing that has surprised me is that I thought the left would try and sink Romney with Christian conservatives by zeroing in on his Mormonism. Maybe try and get some voters to opt out this election, but so far as I can tell this hasn't happened.

 

[mook]

I've been predicting an Obama victory all along and I see nothing yet that changes my mind.

One thing that has surprised me is that I thought the left would try and sink Romney with Christian conservatives by zeroing in on his Mormonism. Maybe try and get some voters to opt out this election, but so far as I can tell this hasn't happened.

I don't think the left has ever been good at playing religious politics. Because it's not a natural fit, I think the decision is that it's a high risk/high reward avenue to try to play up that card. Better to leave it alone (and also let Reverend Wright remain the dead issue it's become.)

If either side goes religious in a big way, it'll be a sign of extreme desperation.

 

[Denny Crane]

Obama's been ahead, but he hasn't at all sealed the deal enough to win. His campaign spent a huge amount of money diverting peoples' attention from his record to tear down Romney, but nobody was really tuned in.

The media has happily played along by not focusing on actual issues, but on whatever the Obama campaign wants in the news. They've even conspired to keep Romney's wife's speech from being televised on network TV.

Yet, Romney will have the stage to himself with the cameras trained on him. If he only says, "it's the economy, stupid" and hammers that home, he'll have Obama on his heels.

I can't imagine Obama/Romney debate being Obama doing personal attacks and not defending his record.

 

[mook]

I had been predicting Obama would win easily, but it will be close now. As soon as Romney wins the republican nomination he gets to access their war chest. He has far more money than Obama.

That's definitely true, but how much can you really spend to change people's minds in two months in about 5 states? If Obama pushes 50 tv commercials in front of the average viewer, and Romney pushes 100, isn't it all going to get washed out in being just a crap-ton of angry political ads that don't matter?

At some point you get overloaded and turn it off. If I lived in Florida (and hadn't already dumped my satellite), I'd plan on DVR'ing all TV and skipping all commercials. Romney and Obama can send all the junk mail they want, but I wouldn't read it.

There's a reason Coca Cola doesn't blow it's entire marketing budget in a two month span (even though they'd get better deals on media buys). After a certain amount of message saturation in a narrow window you really aren't moving the needle much.

 

[jlprk]

"Diminishing returns." A graph which goes up, then flattens. The slope, the derivative, decreases.

 

[MARIS61]

"Inevitable" is a mighty strong word there, sir... Good teams lose to bad ones every single day.

But bad teams never win Championships.

 

[MARIS61]

I've been predicting an Obama victory all along and I see nothing yet that changes my mind.

One thing that has surprised me is that I thought the left would try and sink Romney with Christian conservatives by zeroing in on his Mormonism. Maybe try and get some voters to opt out this election, but so far as I can tell this hasn't happened.

Many of my clients and neighbors are conservative Christian Republicans who pretty much abhor Obama. That said, several have expressed serious resentment that their party is forcing them to vote for Obama as the lesser evil since they regard the Mormon religion as blasphemous and a direct attack on their beliefs. God before country.

 

[Denny Crane]

Bad news for the president.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...fc3-11e1-adc6-87dfa8eff430_story.html?hpid=z1

TAMPA — The Republican National Convention opens this week with President Obama and presumptive nominee Mitt Romney running evenly, with voters more focused on Obama’s handling of the nation’s flagging economy than on some issues dominating the political debate in recent weeks.

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows Romney at 47 percent among registered voters and Obama at 46 percent — barely changed from the deadlocked contest in early July.

...

The Post-ABC survey highlights the dominance of the economy as an issue in the 2012 election. Seventy-two percent of voters say the president’s handling of the economy will be a “major factor” in their vote this November.

Fewer voters place great significance on other issues that have roiled the campaign, including newly minted GOP vice presidential candidate’s plan to restructure Medicare, differences between the parties on women’s issues and Romney’s handling of his tax returns.

...

Just 20 percent see Romney’s handling of his tax returns as very important to their vote. The issue has attracted considerable attention, largely due to efforts by the Obama campaign and other Democrats to force the Republican candidate to release more than the two years of returns he has promised. On the substance of the issue, public opinion nearly matches the horse race: 47 percent of voters say releasing two years of tax information is sufficient, and 47 percent want more.

 

[VanillaGorilla]

http://whatthefuckhasobamadonesofar.com/

 

[jlprk]

Bad news for Romney. He polls at historically low levels. Obama makes Reagan's supposed 1984 popularity look like a piker.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/OTUS...ination-poll-highlights-low/story?id=17097297

http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...vorably-by-most-at-convention-start-poll-says

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...mneys-popularity-dips-ahead-of-opening-night/

 

[MARIS61]

Romney is so wishy-washy and just plain offensive to most hard-working Real Americans, he'd lose to Walter Mondale.

Against Obama he has no chance in hell.

 

[TripTango]

[video=youtube;d5i3F0YnkP0]

 

[jlprk]

What a dirty mouth he has. I was on the fence but now I'll vote against Romney. He isn't presidential.

 

[mook]

Clicking on the two charts from my original post, it kind of feels like maybe the momentum has broken open and Obama is starting to pull way out ahead. Could just be my bias, though. (Are we allowed to admit that our own biases might sway our reading of the data in this forum?)

Plus this just came out: http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/09/10/cnn-poll-obama-up-six-points-over-romney/?hpt=hp_t1

(CNN) – A new survey indicates President Barack Obama moved up four points following the Democratic National Convention last week, and now has a six point advantage over his Republican challenger Mitt Romney.

According to a CNN/ORC International Poll released Monday, 52% of likely voters nationwide back the president, compared to 46% for Romney. Just before the convention in Charlotte, North Carolina, Obama was tied with Romney 48%-48%.

"The Democratic convention was fairly well received, particularly in comparison to the GOP meeting the previous week in Tampa," CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said.

The convention energized–at least temporarily– the Democratic base, as more Democrats (59%) than Republicans (57%) seemed to be enthusiastic about voting. This marks a turnaround from last week, when the number of Republicans who said they were extremely or very enthusiastic about voting was six points higher than for Democrats.

While the survey shows several changes coming out of the last two weeks, it's important to note that post-convention bounces have often proven to be temporary in past elections. A candidate may get a mild boost after a party gathering, but the question is whether the White House hopeful can sustain the momentum in the following weeks.

 

[mook]

I thought Zakaria's read on the two conventions (and the Republican anger) was on point: http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn...-republican-party-too-angry-to-win/?hpt=hp_t2

I don't think independents like the Democrats in particular. But they don't hate them. The fury on the right is kind of tiring.

I think it was a big mistake for Republicans to go with a guy like Romney who just can't seem to have that soft edge to a hard message like, say, a Mike Huckabee can. I disagree with Huckabee's policies, but I always find myself liking him as a person, and in the end I think presidential elections come down to likability.

When was the last time the less likable guy won the presidency? I suppose McCain was more likable than Obama as a person, but I think Obama was more likable as an idea (first black president, not another ancient white dude). I don't think Obama-the-idea is nearly as likable as it once was, but Romney-as-a-person or Romney-as-face-of-Republican-anger is even less likable.

Whomever runs in 2016, they'll probably be going against Hillary Clinton, which, let's face it, will automatically give that person a nice leg up in the likability department.

 

[jlprk]

3 other polls came out yesterday and showed a similar small move up for Obama. Hillary won't run. She's too old and she showed her true colors in the Libya and Syria wars. She'll get no support from her party.

 

[RoyToy]

I don't even need to look at the polls to see how Obama and Romney are polling

If Denny posts a poll, it has to do with Romney winning/Obama falling behind

If he doesn't post anything, it's safe to assume Obama is ahead. I've haven't seen Denny post a poll in a few days.

Obama must be ahead.

 

[Denny Crane]

I think Obama's ahead. He SHOULD be ahead since he's the incumbent and he won with 53% of the vote in 2008 - that's what has made the polls saying the election is close interesting.

What remains to be seen is whether Obama's convention bounce lasts and whether there's enough voter intensity on the Democrat side to actually elect him.

At a similar point in time, Carter was up against Reagan and Dukakis was up against GHW Bush.

 

[Masbee]

Two of the most accurate pollsters from 2008 latest results:

TIPP: Obama 46%; Romney 44%

Rasmussen - 11 Swing States: Obama 47%; Romney 45%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...dministration/daily_swing_state_tracking_poll

http://www.tipponline.com/presidenc...ghtens-as-obama-advantage-narrows-to-2-points

 

[Mediocre Man]

Well that's depressing. Whoever it is I hope they have a different plan than the one utilized in the last 4 years

 

[Eastoff]

Well that's depressing. Whoever it is I hope they have a different plan than the one utilized in the last 4 years

Maybe the plan is really, really slow =]

 

[Eastoff]

anyone believe the voter ID laws will make a big impact?

 

[Denny Crane]

http://blog.chron.com/txpotomac/2008/11/the-list-which-presidential-polls-were-most-accurate/

The Pew Research Center and Rasmussen Reports were the most accurate in predicting the results of the 2008 election, according to a new analysis by Fordham University political scientist Costas Panagopoulos.

The Fordham analysis ranks 23 survey research organizations on their final, national pre-election polls, as reported on pollster.com.

On average, the polls slightly overestimated Obama’s strength. The final polls showed the Democratic ahead by an average of 7.52 percentage points — 1.37 percentage points above his current 6.15-point popular vote lead. Seventeen of the 23 surveys overstated Obama’s final victory level, while four underestimated it. Only two — Rasmussen and Pew — were spot on.

Here is the list –

1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**

1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**

3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)

4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)

5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*

6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*

6T. ARG (10/25-27)*

8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)

8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)

10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)

11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)

12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)

13. FOX (11/1-2)

14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)

15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)

16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)

17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)

18. Marist College (11/3)

19. CBS (10/31-11/2)

20. Gallup (10/31-11/2)

21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)

22. CBS/Times (10/25-29)

23. Newsweek (10/22-23)