What is the ideal off-season? (1 Viewer)

[Natebishop3]

am i alone in thinking that's an overpay for Brown?

I think that's an overpay as well. I don't think we'll end up with #3 though.

I'm just curious how good a team with

Dame
Hart
Brown
Grant/Collins/Randle
Nurk

Would be. Could that team win a championship?

 

[illmatic99]

I think that's an overpay as well. I don't think we'll end up with #3 though.

I'm just curious how good a team with

Dame
Hart
Brown
Grant/Collins/Randle
Nurk

Would be. Could that team win a championship?

definitely a team with HCA and much more balanced than what we put out there before. I floated this exact same idea last week to potentially use Ant as a S&T, so I would want Cronin to gauge his value around the league. But ain't no way in hell I'm giving up BOTH Ant and a top 3 pick.

 

[wizenheimer]

I think that's a leap to compare Ant playing with CJ to Ant playing with Dame.

Dame would pass Ant the ball. CJ did not.

that's very true. Dame accommodated CJ, even the times when CJ was MeJ, for 7 seasons. Dame would certainly try to do what he could to empower Simons. Dame deferred when CJ was hot; he'd do the same when Simons was hot

Ant has shown far more chops as a playmaker in the P&R than CJ ever did. (Perhaps the stats don't show this, but my eye test certainly did). I think Ant is a much more willing passer and does a terrific job of reading backline defenses and his playmaking is closer to Dame's level than it is CJ's level.

I've been on this trip for a while in a potential Dame-Ant backcourt to get a second P&R partner for Ant if Dame is paired with Nurk. A respectable shooter for a pick and pop threat or as a roller to put on the other wing when Dame-Nurk cook defenses on one wing. John Collins would be incredible in this role.

* a FYI: Ant is better than CJ this year as a P&R-ball handler. 35% of Ant's offense vs 31% for CJ. Ant is in the 91st percentile; CJ is in the 88th. Not a big difference but it's there. Dame was in the 91st percentile last year and the 96th percentile the year before

* interestingly, CJ and Simons both have about 14% of their offense generated by isolation. And they both ranked in the 28th percentile; Ant slightly higher. That's poor production. As bad as Dame was this year, 18% of his offense was generated from isolation. He was in the 77th percentile. Last season he was in the 90th percentile

* 22% of Ant's offense comes from spot-up and he ranked in the 90th percentile. 16% of CJ's offense came from spot-up and he was in the 89th percentile. Only 8% of Dame's offense came from spot-up and he was only in the 61st percentile. But last season he was in the 98th percentile. Last season, 28% of Ant's offense cam from spot-up and he was in the 99th percentile. CJ was in the 98th percentile. This kind of tells me they both performed better when Dame was around to set the table for them and absorb the focus of opposing defenses

***********************************************

I'm certainly willing to try the Dame/Ant combo before simply waving a while flag, giving up, and dumping Dame, like several are advocating repeatedly. I have some doubts but it's worth a look, especially now that the Blazers have Hart, who may be an excellent back court partner for either Dame or Simons. Ideally, depending on Ant's next contract, he'd come off the bench as a super 6th man, and get starter's minutes and be on the closing unit

I think it's pretty clear that Dame/Hart/Simons will be the back court rotation next season. Blazers will give it a chance, as they should IMO

 

[Mediocre Man]

Ok, I’ve really given this some thought, so here goes nothing

Most of this is realistic if not probable

Ideally…..

#1 pick = Jabari Smith jr

Pelicans pick comes in at 8ish

TRADE DAME. Not sure where at this point, but it’s the best thing long term for this franchise. Let’s say Boston trades us Brown, Williams and Langford plus a pick for Dame

Trade Nurk. Move him somewhere for an asset

Starting over with

Simons
Brown
Hart
Smith
Williams

starters is a great start to a rebuild

 

[wizenheimer]

speaking of similarities between Ant and CJ (besides defense), Ant has a trend-line he needs to reverse; his FT rate:



that was one of CJ's biggest weaknesses. CJ's career mark is .160; Ant's is .152. Dame's is .335 and the previous two season was over .370. If Ant is going to be ball dominant, he has to get a lot more whistles

Hart's career mark is .256 (.407 this season)

 

[illmatic99]

speaking of similarities between Ant and CJ (besides defense), Ant has a trend-line he needs to reverse; his FT rate:

View attachment 45286

that was one of CJ's biggest weaknesses. CJ's career mark is .160; Ant's is .152. Dame's is .335 and the previous two season was over .370. If Ant is going to be ball dominant, he has to get a lot more whistles

Hart's career mark is .256 (.407 this season)

i agree but Ant seems a lot more interested in driving to the basket than CJ ever did, especially of late. NY kept hammering him last game and dude got no calls. I think he finally has the strength now to be able to absorb contact after being hesitant the rest of the career prior.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Ok, I’ve really given this some thought, so here goes nothing

Most of this is realistic if not probable

Ideally…..

#1 pick = Jabari Smith jr

Pelicans pick comes in at 8ish

TRADE DAME. Not sure where at this point, but it’s the best thing long term for this franchise. Let’s say Boston trades us Brown, Williams and Langford plus a pick for Dame

Trade Nurk. Move him somewhere for an asset

Starting over with

Simons
Brown
Hart
Smith
Williams

starters is a great start to a rebuild

And draft Walker Kessler as our CoTF with the Pelicans pick, right?

 

[wizenheimer]

i agree but Ant seems a lot more interested in driving to the basket than CJ ever did, especially of late. NY kept hammering him last game and dude got no calls. I think he finally has the strength now to be able to absorb contact after being hesitant the rest of the career prior.

for the season, 12.2% of Ant's have come at the rim. 12.6% of CJ's shots have come at the rim. Ant has converted 57.1%; CJ 60.7%. Last year, when Dame was healthy, 23.8% if his shots came at the rim and he converted 63.1%

I'm not saying Ant has to change his overall game. But I do believe he really needs to change the parts of his game that resemble CJ's avoidance of contact and a lack of attacking the basket. IMO, the reason that CJ was ineffective is that his dribble-penetration didn't really cause defenses to react and twist. Those same defenses twist all over the floor when Dame drives, and that opens up passing lanes and scoring opportunities.

 

[blazerkor]

I guess the ideal off season would be landing the number one pick and drafting Jabari Brown with it, our Pelicans pick landing at 5, being able to package a S&T Ant and that 5th pick to get Jaylen Brown, picking up Hart's option, re-signing Nurk for 15M per season, re-signing Watford and Hughes to minimum contracts, picking up a serviceable backup big in the second round (Oscar Tshiebwe), Tyus Jones with the MLE. Then get the best two undrafted rookies or young GLeaugers for our two way contracts.

Dame, Tyus
Josh, Keon, Didi
Jaylen, Nas, Elijah
Jabari, Justise, GB3
Nurk, Oscar, Trendon

 

[illmatic99]

for the season, 12.2% of Ant's have come at the rim. 12.6% of CJ's shots have come at the rim. Ant has converted 57.1%; CJ 60.7%. Last year, when Dame was healthy, 23.8% if his shots came at the rim and he converted 63.1%

I'm not saying Ant has to change his overall game. But I do believe he really needs to change the parts of his game that resemble CJ's avoidance of contact and a lack of attacking the basket. IMO, the reason that CJ was ineffective is that his dribble-penetration didn't really cause defenses to react and twist. Those same defenses twist all over the floor when Dame drives, and that opens up passing lanes and scoring opportunities.

ant has been playing in this role for 2 months. Not gonna take away anything from season stats for him.

 

[B-Roy]

speaking of similarities between Ant and CJ (besides defense), Ant has a trend-line he needs to reverse; his FT rate:

View attachment 45286

that was one of CJ's biggest weaknesses. CJ's career mark is .160; Ant's is .152. Dame's is .335 and the previous two season was over .370. If Ant is going to be ball dominant, he has to get a lot more whistles

Hart's career mark is .256 (.407 this season)

He is not explosive with his first step. Same problem CJ has. He needs to do some fancy dribble moves to get to the basket. I don't see him ever becoming good at drawing FTs. But the good thing is he's shown more playmaking ability at age 22 than CJ ever has, at least this season. That part has been surprising. He's also just straight up more efficient, although that may be because he takes less volume of shots than CJ. Defensively he's a mess but he's still got the "young" moniker.

The most important difference between CJ and Ant though is that Ant will be paid closer to his actual value. It's just impossible to build a contending team with CJ on that contract he couldn't possibly live up to.

 

[illmatic99]

He is not explosive with his first step. Same problem CJ has.

either i'm completely off, or we must be watching completely different games. That left-right cross over can allow him to beat any defender he has in front of him, and we've seen that time and again. It's like a carbon copy of Dame's bursts to the hoop.

The first step isn't the issue. Rather, the lack of FTs right now is stemming from his penchant to want to finish shots in the paint with floaters/fadeaways rather than seeking contact. And THAT is very much like CJ. And even that seems to be changing of late.

Also, refs are really letting him get killed in the paint. He needs to fall a bit to show the contract like Dame does.

 

[B-Roy]

either i'm completely off, or we must be watching completely different games. That left-right cross over can allow him to beat any defender he has in front of him, and we've seen that time and again. It's like a carbon copy of Dame's bursts to the hoop.

The first step isn't the issue. Rather, the lack of FTs right now is stemming from his penchant to want to finish shots in the paint with floaters/fadeaways rather than seeking contact. And THAT is very much like CJ. And even that seems to be changing.

Also, refs are really letting him get killed in the paint. He needs to fall a bit to show the contract like Dame does.

I see him having trouble getting the the rim, he does a lot of right to left and not up and down. Dame can just blow past people with ease (when healthy). Ant has to shake guys free. He also stops short way too often and does not generate contact although I'm not sure if that is just inexperience.

 

[RR7]

for the season, 12.2% of Ant's have come at the rim. 12.6% of CJ's shots have come at the rim. Ant has converted 57.1%; CJ 60.7%. Last year, when Dame was healthy, 23.8% if his shots came at the rim and he converted 63.1%

I'm not saying Ant has to change his overall game. But I do believe he really needs to change the parts of his game that resemble CJ's avoidance of contact and a lack of attacking the basket. IMO, the reason that CJ was ineffective is that his dribble-penetration didn't really cause defenses to react and twist. Those same defenses twist all over the floor when Dame drives, and that opens up passing lanes and scoring opportunities.

I'd be interested to see the percentages for Ant over the past month or 2 as a starter. Certainly early in the season, he was doing more spot up shooting.

 

[illmatic99]

I see him having trouble getting the the rim, he does a lot of right to left and not up and down. Dame can just blow past people with ease (when healthy). Ant has to shake guys free. He also stops short way too often and does not generate contact although I'm not sure if that is just inexperience.

I'm just not seeing what you're seeing. I can't believe how easily Ant is breaking down his primary defenders.

 

[illmatic99]

@B-Roy Some drives to show his first step or bursts past initial defenders.

4:02, 12:26, 13:04, 14:01, 14:23, 15:02, 15:34, 18:10 (my favorite), 18:40

 

[Pinwheel1]

CJ was great at scoring in the paint. Maybe not all the way to the basket but so creative at scoring against opposing bigs. I think Ant has that potential. His floater is getting better so his mini hook.

Dame is great at getting to the basket but if the opposing big is in position, his shot is getting blocked. Unlike Cj, Dame is not creative in the lane.
Yes he draws more fouls but also misses a lot or gets them blocked.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

@B-Roy Some drives to show his first step or bursts past initial defenders.

4:02, 12:26, 13:04, 14:01, 14:23, 15:02, 15:34, 18:10 (my favorite), 18:40

IMO, 14:23 is probably the only one of those I'd consider a pure blow-by (and on Evan Mobley, no less!). Most of them either involve a screen or some fancy dribbling to get the defender off-balance before he makes his move. Not that those are bad, by any means, but I can understand how @B-Roy would say that Ant generally has to shake defenders free rather than just blow past them.

 

[wizenheimer]

I'd be interested to see the percentages for Ant over the past month or 2 as a starter. Certainly early in the season, he was doing more spot up shooting.

I was curious too so I just did some math for since he got the start on Jan 3. What I came up with (I was adding in my head so people can check me) was 374 FGA and 58 FTA. That generates a FT rate of .155....that's better than his season mark of .134 but it's still a really weak number

if I back out those numbers from his season totals, that tells me his season mark, pre-starter was .108

since I'm stupid I just now remembered that BBREF accounts for starter vs reserve on their player splits pages. If I use those numbers, Ant's FT rate as a starter is .129; and as a reserve is .109

none of these numbers are good, and there's little indication, yet, that Ant is more aggressive attacking the hoop as starter. Maybe a little but not a significant change. But that matches the eye test; at least it matches my eye test. Players like Dame and Powell tend to carry their dribble drive all the way to the hoop and attack. Players like CJ and Ant terminate a lot of their drives and settle for tear-drops or half-jump-hooks or sidestep quick jumpers

 

[Sheldon Shape]

If we like Jabari as much as we do and the #1 pick goes to a team with an already existing very good PF, perhaps we can package both picks and take back salary for the #1? It would require getting two picks in the top 7 or 8.

 

[illmatic99]

IMO, 14:23 is probably the only one of those I'd consider a pure blow-by (and on Evan Mobley, no less!). Most of them either involve a screen or some fancy dribbling to get the defender off-balance before he makes his move. Not that those are bad, by any means, but I can understand how @B-Roy would say that Ant generally has to shake defenders free rather than just blow past them.

This is arguing semantics. What about his drive on Durant?

If we're going to disallow a single basic crossover as a precursor to the first step, then you're going to find maybe 5 guys in the league with both the handle and speed to simply win a footrace. Hell, even Dame uses screens and a basic left-right to get past guys all the time. Was that not the premise of the discussion-- that Ant doesn't have the first step that Dame does? I wholeheartedly disagree. And the main point here--- Ant's first step is not the reason for his lack of FTs.

 

[Mr. Robot]

signing nurk to a max contract would be ideal off-season

nothing else matters really

 

[PtldPlatypus]

signing nurk to a max contract would be ideal off-season

nothing else matters really

Glad you're a Nurk fan--the rest of us are Blazer fans, so our priorities clearly aren't aligned with yours.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Ideal offseason, hmmmm, not sure...

 

[Pinwheel1]

@B-Roy Some drives to show his first step or bursts past initial defenders.

4:02, 12:26, 13:04, 14:01, 14:23, 15:02, 15:34, 18:10 (my favorite), 18:40

This guy knows what he is talking about. Probably not relying too much on analytics to come to this conclusion.
Too bad for him that Simons is not going to Philly.

 

[Mediocre Man]

And draft Walker Kessler as our CoTF with the Pelicans pick, right?

BPA…..which is NEVER a WABC

 

[Mr. Robot]

Glad you're a Nurk fan--the rest of us are Blazer fans, so our priorities clearly aren't aligned with yours.

it will be hilarious when nurk walks in free agency and trail blazers become lottery team with dame lillard, just where they were before nurk got traded here and got the team in the playoffs

 

[Pinwheel1]

it will be hilarious when nurk walks in free agency and trail blazers become lottery team with dame lillard, just where they were before nurk got traded here and got the team in the playoffs

I hope Nurk stays, but I am pretty sure we made the 2nd round the year before we got him with Plumlee as our center.

 

[LayneStaley]

Winning the lottery to get Smith and flipping the TPE/NOP pick for an all-star(or almost all-star). You could not have a better off-season than that.

 

[Idog1976]

did I say they were carbon copies? no, and that wasn't my point at all

the comparison was to overvaluing a lesser player over a proven elite player (CJ over PG13 & Butler). And in this case, actually overvaluing Simons over two proven players: Dame & Brown, because that might be the combo Portland could have if they didn't cling to Simons like he was all-pro. Right now Simons has established some things but a lot of the bet is on his potential upside. And a big portion of that upside is still 'maybe' rather than certain

I don't know whether anybody else noticed that when Simons was incredibly hot and got everybody excited, CJ was out. Once CJ came back Simons 'cooled off' dramatically. That 9 game hot streak was followed by a 1o game stretch where Simons was not hot anymore, in either his overall shooting, or his playmaking. Then CJ gets trade and Simons has 2 hot games again

now it just could be coincidence, but it sure kind of looks like Ant doesn't play well if he has to share the stage with somebody who commands touches, shots, and usage. And that may be the case if he was sharing it with a player like Dame or a player like Brown

all I suggested was that Ant + lottery pick + filler might be enough to get Brown. Probably not, but at least we know that Dame can share the stage

That’s totally reasonable and Brown is one of the few longshot might be available guys I would consider trading Simons for due to his size, position, skill and age. He’s not much older than Simons and already a proven two way player. Im just scared at how much potential I see in Simons.