What is the ideal off-season?

[illmatic99]

Siakam, Boucher, and Precious appear to all play the same position - valuable PFs. The latter 2 are only getting about 20 mpg. Boucher is a UFA. It makes sense for them to not re-sign him, especially when Precious should already be playing more minutes.

Any interest in him? Full MLE type interest?

Interest yes. Not for full MLE.

He produces stats when he plays, but not as impactful for wins. I think I might just rather bring back Kanter for the minimum for our backup C.

 

[Natebishop3]

Siakam, Boucher, and Precious appear to all play the same position

 

[Scalma]

Siakam, Boucher, and Precious appear to all play the same position - valuable PFs. The latter 2 are only getting about 20 mpg. Boucher is a UFA. It makes sense for them to not re-sign him, especially when Precious should already be playing more minutes.

Any interest in him? Full MLE type interest?

I don’t think Boucher fits the billups mold tbh. I do like precious and obviously Siakam though.

 

[RR7]

So what's the order of ops? This it?

1.Pick up Hart/Bledsoe options prior to the draft
2. Draft two rookies for ~ 9 mil
3. Sign Ant & Nurk

This gets us over the cap.

4. Trade Bledsoe + 9 mil in rookie contracts (totaling around 29 mil) for Siakam.

We still would have our TPE as you said to get another guy if needed.

We wouldn't even have to sign nurk and ant to do it, although obviously we would want to, but their cap holds and the tpe and Bledsoe is enough to out us over the cap.

 

[illmatic99]

He's definitely my current #1 target over any other PF options.

I prefer OG to Siakam because of his low usage production, but think Toronto would rather move Pascal's salary. 2 lotto picks + an expiring deal for Siakam. I highly doubt Toronto can do better than that if they want to move him .

We still would have our full NTP-MLE to fill out the roster, as well as that TPE to play with at next deadline.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

the timing in these Bledsoe deals is going to be the biggest obstacle i think. We'd have to pick up Bledsoes 19 mil option before the draft. How palpable is that cost for ATL, even if he is an expiring deal next yr?

I understand Spotrac still shows the guarantee date as 6/25, but why are we discounting Bobby Marks' reporting that his guarantee date was pushed out to after the moratorium? Are we just assuming he was wrong/lying? Isn't he usually pretty credible about these things?

 

[Scalma]

I understand Spotrac still shows the guarantee date as 6/25, but why are we discounting Bobby Marks' reporting that his guarantee date was pushed out to after the moratorium? Are we just assuming he was wrong/lying? Isn't he usually pretty credible about these things?

Marks report would make keeping Bledsoe around and not buying him out more understandable. 4m vs 18m is pretty significant lol.

 

[illmatic99]

I understand Spotrac still shows the guarantee date as 6/25, but why are we discounting Bobby Marks' reporting that his guarantee date was pushed out to after the moratorium? Are we just assuming he was wrong/lying? Isn't he usually pretty credible about these things?

sorry i keep forgetting.

relax

 

[TBpup]

2 Lottery Picks

• A Top-3 pick
• The #5 pick

......not greedy at all.

 

[wizenheimer]

So what's the order of ops? This it?

1.Pick up Hart/Bledsoe options prior to the draft
2. Draft two rookies for ~ 9 mil
3. Sign Ant & Nurk

This gets us over the cap.

4. Trade Bledsoe + 9 mil in rookie contracts (totaling around 29 mil) for Siakam.

We still would have our TPE as you said to get another guy if needed.

that would be it. I think RR7 may have underestimated the rookie scale for 8 & 10 a bit. I think it's higher and almost always, picks sign for the max 120% of scale. But all the Blazers would have to come up with is about 26.9M in trade credit to bring back Bledsoe.

Bledsoe's guarantee date shouldn't be an obstacle because the trade would have to be done prior to the draft anyway. The biggest hitch may be getting Bledsoe to agree to extend his deadline into August. Portland would want the option to waive Bledsoe and his 19M salary in case the deal fell thru. But, what Bledsoe would be looking at, likely, is a vet minimum contract if he becomes a free agent, so the chance he could get and additional 12-13M next season should make him receptive to a much later guarantee date

 

[PtldPlatypus]

sorry i keep forgetting.

relax

 

[Natebishop3]

 

[Scalma]

Sign
Ant, Nurk, Ingles

Draft
Duren, Davis

I mean, that’d be ideal for me.

 

[blazerkor]

When I'm realistic and drunk I think of what my ideal off season might just be, it will take my ideal rest of this season to happen. After Dame and Ant show they're great together and making the playoffs for the ninth straight season, the longest streak in the league and scare the first seed a little before losing in the first round. The Pelicans pick conveys and we then draft the BPA with the pick, let's say after workouts that's Jovic. With two future firsts of our own that are probably just top 4 protected we trade for Jerami Grant and fit him into our huge TPE. We draft a true big with our second round pick, maybe that's Adji. We would re-sign Nurk to a deal around 17M a year and we would re-sing Ant to something close to a max deal and opt out of Bledsoe's non-guaranteed money for next season. We would sign the best player we could get with the full MLE who would be Montrezl Harrell or maybe I'm just fascinated by the way his first name is spelled. We let Bledsoe go, we opt into the next season with Hart and re-sign Elijah and Trendon that are RFAs.

Dame
Ant, Keon, Dido
Hart, Nas, Justise, Jovic
Grant, Trendon, GB3
Nurk, Harrell, Adji

I honestly think that if Dame and Ant are complementary and just one or more of our young players pop we will be a contender.

Dame, Ant, Hart, Grant, Nurk, Nas, Harrell, Justise and Jovic could win a championship if they played complementary ball. That's the ideal situation for next season.

 

[wizenheimer]

When I'm realistic and drunk I think of what my ideal off season might just be, it will take my ideal rest of this season to happen. After Dame and Ant show they're great together and making the playoffs for the ninth straight season, the longest streak in the league and scare the first seed a little before losing in the first round. The Pelicans pick conveys and we then draft the BPA with the pick, let's say after workouts that's Jovic. With two future firsts of our own that are probably just top 4 protected we trade for Jerami Grant and fit him into our huge TPE. We draft a true big with our second round pick, maybe that's Adji. We would re-sign Nurk to a deal around 17M a year and we would re-sing Ant to something close to a max deal and opt out of Bledsoe's non-guaranteed money for next season. We would sign the best player we could get with the full MLE who would be Montrezl Harrell or maybe I'm just fascinated by the way his first name is spelled. We let Bledsoe go, we opt into the next season with Hart and re-sign Elijah and Trendon that are RFAs.

Dame
Ant, Keon, Dido
Hart, Nas, Justise, Jovic
Grant, Trendon, GB3
Nurk, Harrell, Adji

I honestly think that if Dame and Ant are complementary and just one or more of our young players pop we will be a contender.

Dame, Ant, Hart, Grant, Nurk, Nas, Harrell, Justise and Jovic could win a championship if they played complementary ball. That's the ideal situation for next season.

welcome back from the 'it's-hopeless-time-to-give-up-won''t work-so-trade-Dame' darkside even though it might just be a short visit

since you're sharing your fantasy, I'll take the opportunity to adjust-and-improve it. I've been a Blazer fan for nearly 50 years so I've had lots of practice at 'if-only' and 'would-this-work'; also at 'fuck-it-where's-the-vodka'

the first thing is, I don't think Portland should risk bidding against itself by offering Ant a near-max deal before the market sets his price, if it even does. Now, RR7 made a good point last week by suggesting that the "market" might be a team that will fuck with Portland by giving Ant a quick-out-player-option offer after 2 years. Yeah, that's a risk but I don't think it's a big one, and IMO, it's one they should take. A max contract for Ant is 35M a year if the cap is set at 121M. That number is scary as hell to me, especially considering that right now, we're looking at him having played like a high paid rookie extension for about 25 games out of 200. I'd hope a lot closer to 25M than 35M but I guess the history of rookie extensions is that most are over-paid.

Nurkic at 17M? I guess it's ok but I'd sure like to see it lower because of his injury history. In the first 3 years of his last contract, Nurkic only played in half of Portland's games. Portland should not overpay to keep Nurk, IMO, and 17M is approaching the edge

******************************************************

some bookkeeping:

Dame 42.5M
Simons 30M
Nurkic 17M
Grant 21M
Hart 13M
Winslow 4.1M
Little 4.2M
Bledsoe 3.9M
1st round pick 6M
Nicholson 2.9M
Johnson 2.7M
Louzada 1.9M
Brown 1.6M
Watford 1.4M
2nd round pick .9M
TPE 6.6M
TPE 3.3M
full-MLE 10M

173M......yikes!! With a 121M salary cap, that would put the tax line at 145M and the apron at 151M. Now, if you delete the two TPE's (waste them?) that drops the Blazers to 163M. That's 18M over the tax line which results in a 38.5M tax bill. Does anybody believe Seattle would give a green light to a tax bill that high? I sure don't

if Ant is at 25M and Nurk at 15, that takes 7M off the cap and drops the tax to 23M. There might be some other ways to reduce

* the bottom line is that Portland can't allow themselves to be hard-capped. And that means they could not use the full-MLE. They'd be restrained to the tax-MLE which would be around 6M. That would drop the tax down to 14-15M. But again, that depends on the salaries of Ant and Nurkic

after everything the Blazers did to shed 2M in tax this year, under obvious mandates from Seattle, I question if there is much appetite at all for the Blazers to jump back into the tax frying pan next season. Pretty sure the threat of repeater tax was part of this. If the Blazers had been over the line this season then they would have been a tax team in 3 of the last 4 seasons, meeting the criteria of repeater tax is they are over the line next season. Being under the line this season means they have reset the counter so they are in no threat of paying the repeater tax in the near future. Still, I think it may be a mistake to overestimate Seattle's willingness to pay tax. Maybe some to see is the Dame/Ant combo sets a different dynamic than the Dame/CJ combo

anyway, too much verbiage just to say that if you're planning on an MLE addition, you should count on a 6M MLE rather than a 10M MLE

by the way: "realistic and drunk"...?

 

[Freshtown]

Siakam, Boucher, and Precious appear to all play the same position - valuable PFs. The latter 2 are only getting about 20 mpg. Boucher is a UFA. It makes sense for them to not re-sign him, especially when Precious should already be playing more minutes.

Any interest in him? Full MLE type interest?

imo, Precious is one of the worst players in the entire NBA.

 

[blazerfan11]

Joe Ingles will never play for the Trail Blazers. His purpose, or his contract's purpose, is to put the Blazers over the salary cap to be able to use the TPE ($20.86 million, created in the CJ trade) in the off-season in a trade. This is according to Mike Richman.

"The Blazers are not going to use the cap space to sign a free agent."
"The Blazers this summer, their plan to get better is a trade. And that traded player exception is their number one vehicle to get better, and Joe Ingles money makes it happen. Because Joe Ingles caphold is about $20 million bucks, and if they keep Joe Ingles caphold on the books, they will remain over the salary cap." "This is why Joe Ingles is so important."

Go to the 22:40 mark on this video:

 

[wizenheimer]

Joe Ingles will never play for the Trail Blazers. His purpose, or his contract's purpose, is to put the Blazers over the salary cap to be able to use the TPE ($20.86 million, created in the CJ trade) in the off-season in a trade. This is according to Mike Richman.

"The Blazers are not going to use the cap space to sign a free agent."
"The Blazers this summer, their plan to get better is a trade. And that traded player exception is their number one vehicle to get better, and Joe Ingles money makes it happen. Because Joe Ingles caphold is about $20 million bucks, and if they keep Joe Ingles caphold on the books, they will remain over the salary cap." "This is why Joe Ingles is so important."

Go to the 22:40 mark on this video:

let's see:

Dame 42.5M
Hart 13M
Bledsoe 3.9M
Winslow 4.1M
Little 4.2M
Johnson 2.7M
Louzada 1.9M
Brown 1.6M

Nicholson 2.9M (dead salary)

Nurkic 18M (cap-hold)
Simons 11.8M (cap-hold)
Elleby 2M (cap-hold)
McLemore 1.7M (cap-hold)
Hughes 4.5M (cap-hold)

1st round pick 6M (estimate)

TPE 20.8M
TPE 6.5M
TPE 3.2M

that's well over 150M which is 29M over the salary cap, and that doesn't include the 9.9M MLE or 3.8 BAE which would also count against the cap unless renounced

it sure looks to me that the Blazers can be nearly 44M over the salary cap without the Ingles cap-hold

which begets the 2-part question: am I missing something? if not, what the fuck is Richman talking about?

 

[illmatic99]

Throwaway comment, but SI wrote a large piece on Miles Bridges and mentioned this:

As far as personal glory goes, Bridges is in line to be recognized with a healthy payday this summer, either from Charlotte (which can match any offer he receives) or another team with cap space. Could the Blazers, trying to retool around Damian Lillard, make an offer? What about the homestate Pistons? There is no shortage of teams who would be interested in Bridges’s varied skill set. Comparing him to other players at his position salary-wise, it’s possible Bridges earned himself in the neighborhood of an extra $30 million by playing out the last year of his current deal.

Ask Bridges about his incredible foresight and he instead makes it clear he never meant to make this season some massive gamble on his talent. His desire to improve his game came more from wanting to make the playoffs than anything else. He says he may have even accepted Charlotte’s contract offer over the summer if not for his agents. “If it wasn’t for them I probably would’ve taken the deal,” Bridges says. “They got more confidence in me than I have sometimes.” Bridges’s success in the midst of his contract situation—particularly as someone coming from Flint, where Bridges says you “take risks every time you walk outside”—is not lost on Green, who knows how ruthless the business side of basketball can be.

“I’m sure he could have taken some extension for way less than what he’s worth,” Green says. “You’re talking tens of millions of dollars. These aren’t small differences. Let’s say he turned down $30 million. There’s a certain level of stress that comes with that. There’s a level of pressure that comes with that. Miles has two young kids. It takes someone super elite at what they do to deliver under that pressure. “It’s great to see guys win from a player perspective. You could’ve taken less money, and it would’ve been celebrated for the general manager. He bet on himself, and it’s going to pay off for him tenfold. It doesn’t always go that way."

 

[illmatic99]

Bridges is a Klutch client as well, fwiw.

And Charlotte will prolly match any deal he get. Would be tricky to land him especially considering how much MJ seems to love him.

 

[RR7]

Joe Ingles will never play for the Trail Blazers. His purpose, or his contract's purpose, is to put the Blazers over the salary cap to be able to use the TPE ($20.86 million, created in the CJ trade) in the off-season in a trade. This is according to Mike Richman.

"The Blazers are not going to use the cap space to sign a free agent."
"The Blazers this summer, their plan to get better is a trade. And that traded player exception is their number one vehicle to get better, and Joe Ingles money makes it happen. Because Joe Ingles caphold is about $20 million bucks, and if they keep Joe Ingles caphold on the books, they will remain over the salary cap." "This is why Joe Ingles is so important."

Go to the 22:40 mark on this video:

As @wizenheimer said, this really makes no sense. They're allowed to essentially use their TPEs as contracts and operate over the cap regardless of Ingles' cap hold.

 

[LayneStaley]

If we turned down Maxey/Simmons/Thybulle for Dame it was a mistake imo. I love Dame but all 3 fit the timeline better and Maxey is turning into a stud.

 

[SlyPokerCat]

If we turned down Maxey/Simmons/Thybulle for Dame it was a mistake imo. I love Dame but all 3 fit the timeline better and Maxey is turning into a stud.

I suggested Simmons, Maxey and picks long ago and people shit on it.

 

[blazerkor]

I didn't want to start another thread with what my ideal off season will look like if the Pelicans make the playoffs which I still think isn't the most likely scenario but it's getting closer to a coin flip and has momentum heading towards happening. So if they make the playoffs and whoever is our GM is dedicated to trying the Dame/Ant back court, this is what I would do.

First I would trade one of our two second round picks or send cash to the bulls to take the conditions off of the pick we owe them for next season.

I would then trade Detroit our 2025 FRP and the Milwaukee 2025 FRP for Grant.

Then I'd trade whatever pick we end up with in this draft, our 2027 and 2029 FRPs if necessary, Bledsoe and Winslow for Jaylen Brown.

Re-sign Ant and Nurk. Opt in on Hart. Sign a backup C with the TPMLE. Off season over.

Rotation: Dame, Ant, Jaylen, Jerami, Nurk, Hart, Nas, TPMLEC and whoever pops more between Greg and Trendon.

 

[Cugel]

Celtics are killing it and Brown is young. Why would they trade him?

 

[Scalma]

As @wizenheimer said, this really makes no sense. They're allowed to essentially use their TPEs as contracts and operate over the cap regardless of Ingles' cap hold.

The bloggers when Ingles runs out of the tunnel with his blazers teammates next season.

 

[blazerkor]

Celtics are killing it and Brown is young. Why would they trade him?

Are they killing it though? If they have an underwhelming playoff performance, I could see them being ready to split up those two and try and get the best value for Brown. I think a mid lotto pick in the current draft and two future FRPs would be a great haul for him.

 

[HailBlazers]

Trade a pick for a starter, Draft an exciting lotto talent.

 

[blazerkor]

My ideal off season that is within grasp at this point is winning the first pick in the lottery and having the Pelicans pick convey at number 9.

I would then like to see us set up some sketchy shit with the Celtics after they make a first round exit, where we allow them to work something out with Ant for a sign and trade that would send the a S&T Ant along with the rights to the 9th pick that we'd pick for them for Jaylen Brown.

Draft Jabari Smith with the first pick.

Draft a backup big with our second rounder.

I would also like to see us trade the Memphis second rounder to the Bulls so they will allow us to take the conditions off of the pick we owe them for next year. Then I'd like to see us use future picks and the TPE to pick up another impact player.

Re-sign Nurk to a contract that gives him a raise but not more than a few million in the first year of the new deal.

See Williams and Keon battle it out for the backup PG spot.

Dame, Hart, Brown, Smith, Nurk, TPE, Nas, Keon, second round big and hopefully someone else pops out of all of our young players.

 

[PCmor7]

I think Dunn is more likely to be on this team next year than Brandon Williams.

It's been fun watching Williams play. He's so quick and can invent shots attack the basket. However, there are a couple of issues.

1. He's an even smaller Dame/Ant and he'll never be the scorer either of them is.
2. You have to cover for him on defense as much as anyone we have.
3. Turnovers. He averages nearly as many as he has assists. An NBA PG can't do that.

Dunn fills a niche that I thought might have secured DSJ a spot next year and he actually might fill that niche better: Big guard who can defend and facilitate and looks more comfortable remembering he's one of the five guys on offense he has to keep involved so defenses are honest. There's a reason at the end of games he's been playing PG and Williams has been off the ball.