What should be done with Anfernee?

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wizenheimer said:
I don't think it's a crappy stat in gauging players who average 30 minutes or more. Look at the top-20:

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I don't see any outliers there except for maybe Harrell; but he's 2nd to Gobert in TS% this season so his efficiency bumps his PER up. There's no stat noise in the top-20

I don't even think there is much noise in the next 20 PER rankings:

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but you will start to see players with lower minutes (Love, Robinson) who probably shouldn't be ranked. I thin PER normalized for minutes is a decent stat, but only so far. Getting down around 25 minutes introduces too much variance. PER actually does a good job of matching eyeball tests for the top 40-50 players. Lower than that, not so much
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Its biggest weakness is with players who are good mainly for their defense. All box score stats have trouble measuring defense because they don’t have much to go on. Also players can get steaks, blocks, and rebounds while not being tirr the ally sound in defense.
 
wizenheimer said:
I'm not sure that's accurate...maybe

KAT was 7th in 2019-20 when the Bulls were 19-45. The same season, Beal was 16th off of a 25-47 Wizards team
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My thought is that positive stats like assists are easier to get when you’re playing with better players. I’d think that negative defensive stats would be easier to avoid when you’re playing in a solid defensive scheme with better players. Great players are still going to shine, but good players might end up a few points lower on a bad team than they would score on a better team. I could certainly be wrong, but it would be interesting to follow up on some guys who moved from bad teams to good ones and see how thawing PER changed.

Edit: It seems to me that even the great players would likely have a better PER if they moved to a better team. I’m pretty sure that Dame’s shooting stats would be even better if he were playing in a team like the Nets where defenses couldn’t afford to double him constantly and where his teammates were stars also capable of making a clutch shot so that he didn’t have to take as many long bombs.
 
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e_blazer said:
Looking at that list, the players with high PER are almost exclusively good players on good teams. I suspect that PER isn’t as good at identifying good players on poor teams.
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Poor teams have less good players, thats why they're poor.
 
WesleyMatthews said:
Poor teams have less good players, thats why they're poor.
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Well, duh. But poor teams do have some good players and the question I have with the stat is whether there's an inherent bias in PER towards rating equivalent players on a good team higher than on a poor team. Basketball is a team sport. Putting up 10 assists on a stacked team is likely to be easier than on a team where you're passing to a bunch of bricklayers.
 
e_blazer said:
Well, duh. But poor teams do have some good players and the question I have with the stat is whether there's an inherent bias in PER towards rating equivalent players on a good team higher than on a poor team. Basketball is a team sport. Putting up 10 assists on a stacked team is likely to be easier than on a team where you're passing to a bunch of bricklayers.
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There's probably too much situational variability to get a good answer to that. Yes, it's easier to get an assist when [better] teammates are able to make shots, but you get a lot more opportunities to control the ball and rack up plus plays on a bad team ... unless you're a ball dominant player on a good team. That's a lot for a statistic to unravel.
 
handiman said:
There's probably too much situational variability to get a good answer to that. Yes, it's easier to get an assist when [better] teammates are able to make shots, but you get a lot more opportunities to control the ball and rack up plus plays on a bad team ... unless you're a ball dominant player on a good team. That's a lot for a statistic to unravel.
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I think that’s true as well. As far as I’m concerned, PER is interesting, but not a definitive measure of a player’s value. But that’s probably true of any attempt to quantify something like that.
 
Easiest answer I have had in a while, pay the man and keep him, then make a decision on Dame
 
This offseason, management should trade either Ant or Dame for whatever package helps the team the most.

STOMP
 
You keep him. You keep Ant and you start him with Dame and you figure out what to do with two of the most gifted scoring guards in the game after that.
 
Minstrel said:
Telfair had at least one legitimate NBA skill--he was an extremely skilled passer. He wasn't an efficient scorer, he wasn't much of a rebounder and he couldn't play defense--but all those things are true of Simons, too, and he doesn't have even the one standout skill. That's why I don't expect Simons to stick in the NBA. Even if you aren't a good overall player, if you have one signature skill to hang your hat on, that you can do at an NBA level, you can have a minor career in the league. But without that, you'd better be a good player all-around.
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This sure aged well.
 
Re-sign Simons next year for $5M more ($9M) than the 2021-2022 salary and give him the chance to play mostly SG alongside Dame.
 
swish3 said:
Re-sign Simons next year for $5M more ($9M) than the 2021-2022 salary and give him the chance to play mostly SG alongside Dame.
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He would leave if they only offered him 9 million, and rightfully so.
 
julius said:
He would leave if they only offered him 9 million, and rightfully so.
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Agreed. Odd that the poster who continually proclaims the importance of 3 point shooting is for offering such an underwhelming contract to arguably Portland's best 3 point shooting threat.

STOMP
 
A $5M increase for a player who is 22 and has only a limited run of high scoring games may be incentive enough given the chance to continue to be on a team that can be a contender next year, and with the continued mentoring of Dame and Chauncey. The Blazers should conserve salary resources, and try to minimize the number of players earning more than $10M. If Simons wants to leave that is his choice. He is not the best swish3 shooter in pressure situations, and will be several % behind Dame next year, when Dame returns healthy for his best seasons in his career.
 
swish3 said:
A $5M increase for a player who is 22 and has only a limited run of high scoring games may be incentive enough given the chance to continue to be on a team that can be a contender next year, and with the continued mentoring of Dame and Chauncey. The Blazers should conserve salary resources, and try to minimize the number of players earning more than $10M. If Simons wants to leave that is his choice. He is not the best swish3 shooter in pressure situations, and will be several % behind Dame next year, when Dame returns healthy for his best seasons in his career.
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Just out of curiosity, do you know that Simons already shoots a better % from 3 than Dame does?
 
I think you have to consider packaging him with picks for a legit Robin for Dame that is not a SG. I think you can find another player with Ant's scoring skills. Shit, Jordan Poole was a 28th pick and he is probably better than Ant.
 
Cugel said:
I think you have to consider packaging him with picks for a legit Robin for Dame that is not a SG. I think you can find another player with Ant's scoring skills. Shit, Jordan Poole was a 28th pick and he is probably better than Ant.
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Going to be interesting to see if they do package Ant?
 
Cugel said:
I think you have to consider packaging him with picks for a legit Robin for Dame that is not a SG. I think you can find another player with Ant's scoring skills. Shit, Jordan Poole was a 28th pick and he is probably better than Ant.
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The Warriors' player development process is probably worthy of a siginificant amount of credit there.
 
There was a poll on Reddit the other day about who was better:
Anfernee, Jordan Poole and Tyrese Maxey. All three have them have really exploded in value this year. It was pretty evenly divided (although Poole and Maxey have the advantage of having just gone off in the playoffs).

I've got to say, if offered the choice to swap Anfernee for one of the others, I probably wouldn't.

(That said: I wanted us at the time to take Jalen Brunson, and he's not doing anything to make me regret saying that either. Supposedly Detroit might pursue him this offseason.)
 
Cugel said:
I think you have to consider packaging him with picks for a legit Robin for Dame that is not a SG. I think you can find another player with Ant's scoring skills. Shit, Jordan Poole was a 28th pick and he is probably better than Ant.
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I'd love to move him for an equally talented young SG with legit SG size. Anfernee is a PG with good size for a PG. I would also love to feature him and move Dame for a big return... explore both options this offseason to see whats available & then decide. Maybe they don't find a return for either that they find acceptable and push this decision to midseason, but pairing two PG sized PGs isn't a recipe for success.

STOMP
 
Chris Craig said:
$9 million? Simons is going to get at least $16 million if not $20 million.
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if the Blazers sign Ant for 16M/year they've got a massive discount compared to historical numbers for rookie extensions. I'd love it of course. I've been thinking Ant + Nurk will be at least 40M/year. If they can get them for 30M/year...wow!

I'm just hoping that Cronin, or whoever the GM is, doesn't pull an Olshey and bid against himself
 
Cugel said:
I think you have to consider packaging him with picks for a legit Robin for Dame that is not a SG. I think you can find another player with Ant's scoring skills. Shit, Jordan Poole was a 28th pick and he is probably better than Ant.
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Jerami Grant? LoL
 
wizenheimer said:
if the Blazers sign Ant for 16M/year they've got a massive discount compared to historical numbers for rookie extensions. I'd love it of course. I've been thinking Ant + Nurk will be at least 40M/year. If they can get them for 30M/year...wow!

I'm just hoping that Cronin, or whoever the GM is, doesn't pull an Olshey and bid against himself
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Yeah, I'm scared we're preparing to throw $35M/year at Simons. I'd be ecstatic if the eventual figure is $16-20M per.
 
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