TBpup
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Any season is full of ebbs and flows and historically, the Blazers will go on some kind of hot streak before it is over. The latest 4th quarter collapse was just another difficult example. And sadly, even when that inevitable hot streak comes, that usually does not translate into the Playoffs, but for the sake of this discussion, let's look at this current stretch where things have really started to go south.
The Blazers are 3-7 in their last 10 games. They have one of the members of the Blazers Mt Rushmore, an uber-athletic SG, the best PF they have had in almost a decade, a solid center and a hustling freak of a SF. They are currently missing players from the bench, but that bench isn't playing when they get down 9-0 to start a game against Golden State, or get outscored 15-2 to close the game to the equally mediocre Pacers.
In the last 10 games:
Dame : 76-195 = .389 FG%...31-103 = .30% 3Pt%
Ant: 69-166 = .415 FG%...32-94 = .34% 3Pt%
Rest of the Team:
DAL 30-65
HOU 22-44
OKC 28-55
OKC 29-49
DEN 23-43
CHA 32-53
GSW 22-41
DET 30-52
MIN 20-45
IND 24-50
In those 10 games, the rest of the team is a combined 260-497 = .523 FG%. That is a drastic difference from the combined .401 that Dame/Ant are shooting. Of course, the majority of the defense is designed towards Dame first, and then Ant, but perhaps even more of a reason to give the guys who are shooting a higher percentage on less contested shots.....more shots.
There is also a lack of production from the bench, although not a lack of efficiency. But when I went back and looked at much of the tape, most of the times the bench is in, Ant is often doing a disappointing imitation of MeJ and there are few opportunities for the bench for the time they are in there. Then when Dame is in with the bench, Dame is a more willing passer, but you see all the young kids deferring back to Dame far too often even when they have good opportunities. Between the two of those situations, much of the bench doesn't shoot that much even though when they do, they are converting and a very solid rate on many nights.
Nurk has been solid and happily more consistent although there are still stretches that make me pull what is left of my hair out. Equally as frustrating is Harts almost abject unwillingness to shoot at times, even when he is wide open.
Grant has consistently been the most effective shooter on the team, but often gets quite a bit fewer attempts than the starting guards who in the 10-game stretch are taking a whopping 42% of the shots. 42% of the shots shooting .401 FG% versus the rest of the team shooting 48% of the shots shooting .523%.
And on most nights, the players shooting the much higher percentage, are asked to play the majority of the defense.
Now Dame and Ant have the ability to get scorching hot, but rarely do they do it on the same night. They are at their best when they have the ball in their hands, even though they are both very good spot up shooters. So it limits their offensive effectiveness, while their defensive effectiveness has never been a strength.
Dame and Ant even being 'average' offensively during this time would have changed a 3-7 record into something more likely closer to 7-3 or even 8-2.
From a larger team standpoint, the insane amount of TOs will continue to hold this team back. The starters have 22 TOs in the last 2 games. I expect it from the kids....Walker, Sharpe, Johnson, but the veterans are treating the ball like a greased pig. Chauncey has his issues, but these players know how to play and some of the passes they are making you won't see at most college games. They players know what they are supposed to do...they are just not executing.
And then there is the defense. They just aren't long enough or disciplined enough to be effective. Dame and Ant start at a deficit on most nights. Hart is solid, but he is out of position. That leaves Grant to cover up more than he is able to, and Nurkic too often gets stuck out too far from the basket and doesn't have the mobility to recover. Given the lack of defense behind him when he gets out that far, it is a failed recipe at best.
How to fix it?
To start with, Dame and Ant have to start hitting shots like they are being paid to do. That might sound a bit direct, but it is reality. They are taking up a massive amount of the cap, and not producing at an efficient level. Add in the poor defense, and it is definitely a not a great return on the dollar per cap percentage.
Secondly, this is a work in progress as Cronin has said. It will be very interesting to see what happens by the trade deadline and then this off-season. They need more length, more defense and more of a veteran or aggressive presence off the bench.
Sadly, until then, we are at much the same place as we have been season after season for years. We can cheer for our team, but it can also certainly be frustrating at times. You want to see growth, and regardless of whatever moves have been made, they seem stagnant season over season.
Maybe the growth will have to come from Ant, Shaedon, Walker, Keon, etc, and if that is the case, we may be waiting for another couple of years.
The Blazers are 3-7 in their last 10 games. They have one of the members of the Blazers Mt Rushmore, an uber-athletic SG, the best PF they have had in almost a decade, a solid center and a hustling freak of a SF. They are currently missing players from the bench, but that bench isn't playing when they get down 9-0 to start a game against Golden State, or get outscored 15-2 to close the game to the equally mediocre Pacers.
In the last 10 games:
Dame : 76-195 = .389 FG%...31-103 = .30% 3Pt%
Ant: 69-166 = .415 FG%...32-94 = .34% 3Pt%
Rest of the Team:
DAL 30-65
HOU 22-44
OKC 28-55
OKC 29-49
DEN 23-43
CHA 32-53
GSW 22-41
DET 30-52
MIN 20-45
IND 24-50
In those 10 games, the rest of the team is a combined 260-497 = .523 FG%. That is a drastic difference from the combined .401 that Dame/Ant are shooting. Of course, the majority of the defense is designed towards Dame first, and then Ant, but perhaps even more of a reason to give the guys who are shooting a higher percentage on less contested shots.....more shots.
There is also a lack of production from the bench, although not a lack of efficiency. But when I went back and looked at much of the tape, most of the times the bench is in, Ant is often doing a disappointing imitation of MeJ and there are few opportunities for the bench for the time they are in there. Then when Dame is in with the bench, Dame is a more willing passer, but you see all the young kids deferring back to Dame far too often even when they have good opportunities. Between the two of those situations, much of the bench doesn't shoot that much even though when they do, they are converting and a very solid rate on many nights.
Nurk has been solid and happily more consistent although there are still stretches that make me pull what is left of my hair out. Equally as frustrating is Harts almost abject unwillingness to shoot at times, even when he is wide open.
Grant has consistently been the most effective shooter on the team, but often gets quite a bit fewer attempts than the starting guards who in the 10-game stretch are taking a whopping 42% of the shots. 42% of the shots shooting .401 FG% versus the rest of the team shooting 48% of the shots shooting .523%.
And on most nights, the players shooting the much higher percentage, are asked to play the majority of the defense.
Now Dame and Ant have the ability to get scorching hot, but rarely do they do it on the same night. They are at their best when they have the ball in their hands, even though they are both very good spot up shooters. So it limits their offensive effectiveness, while their defensive effectiveness has never been a strength.
Dame and Ant even being 'average' offensively during this time would have changed a 3-7 record into something more likely closer to 7-3 or even 8-2.
From a larger team standpoint, the insane amount of TOs will continue to hold this team back. The starters have 22 TOs in the last 2 games. I expect it from the kids....Walker, Sharpe, Johnson, but the veterans are treating the ball like a greased pig. Chauncey has his issues, but these players know how to play and some of the passes they are making you won't see at most college games. They players know what they are supposed to do...they are just not executing.
And then there is the defense. They just aren't long enough or disciplined enough to be effective. Dame and Ant start at a deficit on most nights. Hart is solid, but he is out of position. That leaves Grant to cover up more than he is able to, and Nurkic too often gets stuck out too far from the basket and doesn't have the mobility to recover. Given the lack of defense behind him when he gets out that far, it is a failed recipe at best.
How to fix it?
To start with, Dame and Ant have to start hitting shots like they are being paid to do. That might sound a bit direct, but it is reality. They are taking up a massive amount of the cap, and not producing at an efficient level. Add in the poor defense, and it is definitely a not a great return on the dollar per cap percentage.
Secondly, this is a work in progress as Cronin has said. It will be very interesting to see what happens by the trade deadline and then this off-season. They need more length, more defense and more of a veteran or aggressive presence off the bench.
Sadly, until then, we are at much the same place as we have been season after season for years. We can cheer for our team, but it can also certainly be frustrating at times. You want to see growth, and regardless of whatever moves have been made, they seem stagnant season over season.
Maybe the growth will have to come from Ant, Shaedon, Walker, Keon, etc, and if that is the case, we may be waiting for another couple of years.
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