OT What Went Wrong with US Coronavirus Testing

[TorturedBlazerFan]

We know for a fact that the Obama administration had a pandemic response plan that was not used because most of the people that were briefed on it when the transition happened are no longer working in the white house - so we know for a fact that there was better preparation in the previous administration - so I reject the entire premise that no president would have been better prepared.

I have no doubts that we would still have a problem on our hand. I suspect however that we would have been an awful lot closer to countries like the Nordic states, UK, Germany than Italy or worse - which is where are heading.

It will like be an order of a magnitude bigger tragedy than what it would have been with a more competent administration. That's the whole point.

The UK, the Nordic States, and some of those it appears to be amping up there too though I think only time will tell if they were able to do better than the US did.
The other factor is they all have a fraction of the population that the US does.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/switzerland/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/norway/

Norway is probably doing the best so far, but they have a country of like 5.5m people, spread out, with Oslo as the biggest I believe with a population of 700k?

I have no idea if another administration would have done better or worse. Frankly, you may "believe" another would have done better, and have various pieces of evidence to that assertion, but none of us really "know". I am not at all saying Trumps handled any of it well, but I don't think anyone has, and I'm not sure anyone would have.

 

[e_blazer]

We know for a fact that the Obama administration had a pandemic response plan that was not used because most of the people that were briefed on it when the transition happened are no longer working in the white house - so we know for a fact that there was better preparation in the previous administration - so I reject the entire premise that no president would have been better prepared.

I have no doubts that we would still have a problem on our hand. I suspect however that we would have been an awful lot closer to countries like the Nordic states, UK, Germany than Italy or worse - which is where are heading.

It will like be an order of a magnitude bigger tragedy than what it would have been with a more competent administration. That's the whole point.

Here's a pretty good synopsis by Politico on what's gone wrong to date from a political standpoint with response to covid-19. Note that Congress has consistently under-funded pandemic preparations.

As far as your lack of doubt that the problem would be better contained under a different administration than where we are under Trump, I don't disagree for the most part. I do disagree that it would be and order of magnitude less without adequate testing early on. Absent testing and effective quarantine early on, the rapid spread of the disease was inevitable.

 

[illmatic99]

This is pretty much my position. My only other point would be that some people go as far as saying:

"not just any president would have done better, but literally ANYONE would have done better."

Which is obviously false.

We would be so much better with literally an empty void in his place. He misled people and lied.

 

[andalusian]

The UK, the Nordic States, and some of those it appears to be amping up there too though I think only time will tell if they were able to do better than the US did.
The other factor is they all have a fraction of the population that the US does.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/switzerland/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/norway/

Norway is probably doing the best so far, but they have a country of like 5.5m people, spread out, with Oslo as the biggest I believe with a population of 700k?

I have no idea if another administration would have done better or worse. Frankly, you may "believe" another would have done better, and have various pieces of evidence to that assertion, but none of us really "know". I am not at all saying Trumps handled any of it well, but I don't think anyone has, and I'm not sure anyone would have.

I am pretty sure South Korea has, but they have the experience of experiencing a pandemic before (SARS v1) which we do not.

As for not knowing - nobody ever knows with certainty anything - but logic dictates, given the information we do have - that Trump has done a dismal job of this, an epic fail - and previous administrations that have proven to be competent in dealing with other tough situations had better resources and preparation - so logically, would have done much better. Simple as that.

 

[e_blazer]

One disagreement - if testing had been made a national priority, it seems plausible to me that the FDA would have reacted much more quickly. Bureaucracies can be moved by sufficient pressure. But in this case there was no pressure.

barfo

I think that's a fair point, but who knows? I believe that FDA was primarily concerned that private sector testing would open up error and potential for fraud. I'm sure that those points would have been raised as objections to pressure to go against policies.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

I am pretty sure South Korea has, but they have the experience of experiencing a pandemic before (SARS v1) which we do not.

As for not knowing - nobody ever knows with certainty anything - but logic dictates, given the information we do have - that Trump has done a dismal job of this, an epic fail - and previous administrations that have proven to be competent in dealing with other tough situations had better resources and preparation - so logically, would have done much better. Simple as that.

Well there's some fallacy's there though. History doesn't predict the future. I've handled some things very poorly in my life in the past, does that mean that I will always handle similar situations poorly again? I've handled somethings well, does that mean that I will always handle them well?

 

[e_blazer]

I am pretty sure South Korea has, but they have the experience of experiencing a pandemic before (SARS v1) which we do not.

As for not knowing - nobody ever knows with certainty anything - but logic dictates, given the information we do have - that Trump has done a dismal job of this, an epic fail - and previous administrations that have proven to be competent in dealing with other tough situations had better resources and preparation - so logically, would have done much better. Simple as that.

South Korea's response was effective because of TESTING. Without quick testing and isolation, they'd be in the same boat as us.

 

[andalusian]

Well there's some fallacy's there though. History doesn't predict the future. I've handled some things very poorly in my life in the past, does that mean that I will always handle similar situations poorly again? I've handled somethings well, does that mean that I will always handle them well?

History predicts the future a lot better than random events - it's the whole basis of well respected scientific branches and quite frankly, the whole way the modern world works. If you have competent people in charge, understanding past events and their interpretations lead to better results a lot more often than not. If you do not believe that, quite frankly - we have nothing to discuss - it's an axiom of the modern world.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

South Korea's response was effective because of TESTING. Without quick testing and isolation, they'd be in the same boat as us.

I have another theory. Genetics, and Immunity. Similar to when the Europeans came to the US and spread diseases that natives had no natural immunities to. I think there is a decent chance that the people of south east Asia have some help in regards to fighting this off naturally, through their immune systems. It might actually show that in the end China wasn't lying about their numbers as much as most of us think they are too.

 

[andalusian]

South Korea's response was effective because of TESTING. Without quick testing and isolation, they'd be in the same boat as us.

So, if we did not waste two months because of lack of intel (incompetent administration) or misunderstanding of the situation (incompetent administration) - our testing could have started much earlier - and the problem would be smaller. I do not disagree with you about the ways to solve it. I disagree with you that the problem would not have been much smaller if we had competent administration.

I trust a competent administration to do that - regardless of their political leaning. This administration is not competent. Simple as that.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

History predicts the future a lot better than random events - it's the whole basis of well respected scientific branches and quite frankly, the whole way the modern world works. If you have competent people in charge, understanding past events and their interpretations lead to better results a lot more often than not. If you do not believe that, quite frankly - we have nothing to discuss - it's an axiom of the modern world.

History certainly helps to predict outcomes, but does not with 100% certainty predict an outcome. The world is always changing and providing new history and data for us to use for predictions.
I understand you believe that Trump and his administration are completely incompetent, and that's the basis of your argument.

 

[e_blazer]

So, if we did not waste two months because of lack of intel (incompetent administration) or misunderstanding of the situation (incompetent administration) - our testing could have started much earlier - and the problem would be smaller. I do not disagree with you about the ways to solve it. I disagree with you that the problem would not have been much smaller if we had competent administration.

I trust a competent administration to do that - regardless of their political leaning. This administration is not competent. Simple as that.

Nothing is as simple as you want to make it out to be. CDC operates independently of the Trump administration when it comes to developing tests like were needed here. Read this NYT article if you’re interested in understanding the roots of the failure.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/us/testing-coronavirus-pandemic.amp.html

 

[andalusian]

History certainly helps to predict outcomes, but does not with 100% certainty predict an outcome. The world is always changing and providing new history and data for us to use for predictions.
I understand you believe that Trump and his administration are completely incompetent, and that's the basis of your argument.

Where did I claim that it was 100% - I specifically wrote that you can never predict the future.

I do believe that Trump is incompetent - and there is an awful lot of historical data to correlate with this assumption. I did not bring it out of thin air. We also have hard evidence that the previous administration was quicker to handle the Ebola crisis, managed to handle the financial crisis it inherited - so again, there is data to support my assertion.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

Where did I claim that it was 100% - I specifically wrote that you can never predict the future.

I do believe that Trump is incompetent - and there is an awful lot of historical data to correlate with this assumption. I did not bring it out of thin air. We also have hard evidence that the previous administration was quicker to handle the Ebola crisis, managed to handle the financial crisis it inherited - so again, there is data to support my assertion.

Bush, Obama, and Trump have handled their financial crisis' in similar ways, bail out their corporate buddies, continue to increase the gap between the ultra rich and everyone else. Throw the common people a bone here or there and spend, spend, spend. So I'd disagree with you about Obama's handling of the financial crisis, they've all sold out the people for corporate sponsorships.

I personally believe Obama or most other presidents would have handled it better. I don't know that for sure, but yes I'd agree with that assertion. My disagreement if there is one is the notion that this entire thing gets placed at the feet of the Trump administration, it seems like there's a whole lot of blame to go around, and some of that is certainly not all because of an incompetent administration.

 

[bodyman5000 and 1]

I think you are completely missing my point. My point was not that he was not able to stop the disease from arriving here, but that his actions (not just since it started) has made the crisis a lot worse than it should have.

1. Obama worked with many countries together and got info and intel to work together and try to stop the problem even out of the country. In comparison - Trump has antagonized almost all international partners including the Chinese with his unnecessary trade war, his administration fired the CDC representative in China - so he did not have the intel nor the relations with China to get early intel.

2. Trump mislead the public - which directly made some people that should have not gone to work go, and some governors that should have restricted movement early not do that.

3. His travel restriction were ineffective because he somehow missed that the problem already existed in Italy and thus likely elsewhere in Europe - and he started with just Chinese travel restriction.

4. His inability to coordinate response on a national level that leads to states fighting with each other over supplies is a disgrace.

5. He wasted several years by ignoring the pandemic scenario that he inherited from the previous administration through attrition via his awful staff management, and a couple of months of preparations once he knew about the situation because he refused to believe the experts that were still around and downplayed the situation.

So, no, it certainly could have, and would have been handled a lot better if we had competent leadership that can think long term. Just because this pandemic is more contagious than Ebola does not mean he gets a pass. He did an awful job, simple as that.

I can't take anything you say seriously if you still claim the trade war with China is unnecessary.

If this hasn't proven to people that being dependent on cheap crap from China is a disaster I don't know what to tell you.

I keep up on this and have been complaining for years and I still didn't know how much of our medicine is made by them.

China isn't our friend.

 

[barfo]

I can't take anything you say seriously if you still claim the trade war with China is unnecessary.

I suppose you could try to make an argument that a winnable trade war with China would be a good idea, but Trump's trade war as currently fought is unwinnable and therefore definitely unnecessary.

If this hasn't proven to people that being dependent on cheap crap from China is a disaster I don't know what to tell you.

I keep up on this and have been complaining for years and I still didn't know how much of our medicine is made by them.

China isn't our friend.

Is everyone you do business with your friend?

barfo

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

I suppose you could try to make an argument that a winnable trade war with China would be a good idea, but Trump's trade war as currently fought is unwinnable and therefore definitely unnecessary.



Is everyone you do business with your friend?

barfo

No but if the people I worked with were actively stealing my IP’s, giving me faulty products, and trying to make my business worse off, I wouldnt work keep doing business with them.

 

[barfo]

No but if the people I worked with were actively stealing my IP’s, giving me faulty products, and trying to make my business worse off, I wouldnt work keep doing business with them.

What if your competitors continued to do business with those people, and those people were the lowest-cost suppliers? Wouldn't that put you at a competitive disadvantage?

barfo

 

[Hoopguru]

My personal opinion, and feel free to ridicule me for it is that this entire things comes across as a complete lack of preparation, and then inability to create a reasonable, thought out plan. Yes I’d say Trump is part of that but it seems to be at all levels of government. No ones prepared for anything massive to happen. There are no contingency plans. It’s the virus, its the economy, its the hurricanes weve seen it over and over for years no matter the administration.

The economy buckles, whats their response? Oh we had no idea that was a possibility quick lets all make sure help out the corporate overlords, push our political agenda’s and then talk in circles everyday.

Ive yet to hear a person in our political leadership at any level spell out a clear concise message for what they’re plans are going forward city, state or feds. Even the supposed shut downs and stay at home mandates are filled with confusion, and “are we essential”, why is x essential but we arent, its just seat of the pants were throwing stuff out there EVERYDAY thats not really coherent with anything else weve said.
People are praising Coumo and a few others because they’ve eloquently said nothing, but it sounded good.
The whole ordeal to me shows just how little thought our elected officials have put into, “what if’s”... How ill-prepared they are, how inept their ability to formulate plans, and communicate those plans with their people.

The economy is in free-fall because the markets have complete uncertainty, people are in fear for their lives, their livelihoods, and there loved ones, because really not any of these people are apparently up to snuff for leading their constituents through tough times. I understand the jobs they have are hard, that people die and the economy does things outside of their power, but IMO whether its “testing”, or treatment, or stay-at-homes, or even the economy there has been a failure across the board to come up with, and present plans for how to deal with it.

I dont at all put it all on Trump. I do however believe he hasnt acted like he’s equipped to handle it, either.

In fact whats got me more frustrated is the huge corporate bail out theyve done with COVID19 as an excuse.

This isnt really directed at you bodyman, just in general.

So, if we did not waste two months because of lack of intel (incompetent administration) or misunderstanding of the situation (incompetent administration) - our testing could have started much earlier - and the problem would be smaller. I do not disagree with you about the ways to solve it. I disagree with you that the problem would not have been much smaller if we had competent administration.

I trust a competent administration to do that - regardless of their political leaning. This administration is not competent. Simple as that.

Whenever you have an overgrown government with politicians on the take and trying to justify their positions,, you will have incompetence.
Yep, this admin was late to respond, but their have been past administrations that didn't respond, and cost lives.
Every State leadership needs to step up their plans for future virus's. Hell, they stock pile everything else to hit budget numbers for new FY budgets, they can hedge some and build up a reserve of medical equipment and, they will. You will see many new re-purposed companies going after State dollars for this very reason too.

 

[barfo]

Whenever you have an overgrown government with politicians on the take and trying to justify their positions,, you will have incompetence.
Yep, this admin was late to respond, but their have been past administrations that didn't respond, and cost lives.
Every State leadership needs to step up their plans for future virus's. Hell, they stock pile everything else to hit budget numbers for new FY budgets, they can hedge some and build up a reserve of medical equipment and, they will. You will see many new re-purposed companies going after State dollars for this very reason too.

So your answer is the same as Trump's: every state for itself, and the devil take the hindmost.

Might as well disband the federal government if we don't plan to use it for anything.

barfo

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

So your answer is the same as Trump's: every state for itself, and the devil take the hindmost.

Might as well disband the federal government if we don't plan to use it for anything.

barfo

Yes, I would like to disband the federal government. The United States is a failed experiment IMO. Let the states form their own countries the one's who want to can join together if they want.

 

[Hoopguru]

So your answer is the same as Trump's: every state for itself, and the devil take the hindmost.

Might as well disband the federal government if we don't plan to use it for anything.

barfo

It wouldn't matter to me if Hillary Clinton was President, I would still feel the same. I spent 45 years in the mfg. / distribution business and decentralized methods are the best in reaction time and serving customers.
Whenever there is consolidation of distribution to fewer regional warehouses/support the only thing that improves is profit margins, as it's the way to cut cost, but the service generally get way worse.
I worked with State buying offices and emergency response departments and the,y if better equipped, could do a much better job on their own rather than depend on the fed. Take the fed dollars but dont allow them involved in logistics and purchasing.

 

[HailBlazers]

Perhaps, but Trump and his administration didn't even bother to investigate. I'm sure that when Schumer sounded the alarm in January, Trump simply rolled his eyes and then dismissed it as "the Dems latest hoax"..

Perhaps if they didn't spend an exorbitant amount of time and resources trying to impeach our president the response would have been better.

 

[barfo]

Perhaps if they didn't spend an exorbitant amount of time and resources trying to impeach our president the response would have been better.

Because he got his widdle feewings hurt?

barfo

 

[barfo]

It wouldn't matter to me if Hillary Clinton was President, I would still feel the same. I spent 45 years in the mfg. / distribution business and decentralized methods are the best in reaction time and serving customers.
Whenever there is consolidation of distribution to fewer regional warehouses/support the only thing that improves is profit margins, as it's the way to cut cost, but the service generally get way worse.

But that's not the issue here. No one is saying that the Feds should have everything shipped to one warehouse and distribute it from there.

I worked with State buying offices and emergency response departments and the,y if better equipped, could do a much better job on their own rather than depend on the fed. Take the fed dollars but dont allow them involved in logistics and purchasing.

I'm sure in normal times the states would rather be given the money and spend it as they please. But in this case supplies are short, prices are high, and no state has the power to make manufacturers sell to them at all, much less at a reasonable price.

barfo

 

[ABM]

I'm sure in normal times the states would rather be given the money and spend it as they please. But in this case supplies are short, prices are high, and no state has the power to make manufacturers sell to them at all, much less at a reasonable price.

I know, right? What efforts are being made there?

 

[CupWizier]

Perhaps if they didn't spend an exorbitant amount of time and resources trying to impeach our president the response would have been better.

One thing is for sure, this administration sure loves to pass the buck and blame previous administrations as well as other things rather than take responsibility. Is donald unable to chew gum and walk as well? Maybe if dumb ass donnie didn't deplete the pandemic task force and keep reducing regulations to the point it leaves us vulnerable we would be in better shape but instead we just get finger pointing, excuses and if states want anything they have to ask trump nicely (Colonel Jessup calling on line 1). We are suppose to be the richest, smartest and most advanced country in the world. In a time of crisis it shows this administration is falling way behind.

 

[bodyman5000 and 1]

So, if we did not waste two months because of lack of intel (incompetent administration) or misunderstanding of the situation (incompetent administration) - our testing could have started much earlier - and the problem would be smaller. I do not disagree with you about the ways to solve it. I disagree with you that the problem would not have been much smaller if we had competent administration.

I trust a competent administration to do that - regardless of their political leaning. This administration is not competent. Simple as that.

I was wrong. Trump did mess up. He should have arrested Nancy

 

[yankeesince59]

Perhaps if they didn't spend an exorbitant amount of time and resources trying to impeach our president the response would have been better.

Actually, they DID impeach him, and rightfully so.

People who attempt to regurgitate the misinformed and woefully misguided "Trump was preoccupied with the impeachment proceedings" narrative are in denial.

 

[crandc]

Look up what Bill Clinton and Richard Nixon did during impeachment. Regardless of what you think of them and their policies both were determined to show they could work during impeachment and actually did a lot.