Rumor What's going on in Portland? (7 Viewers)

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Phatguysrule said:
Baring a natural disaster real estate will be higher in 5-10 years than it is now.
Click to expand...

per the links i posted your opinion would be incorrect. The upswing trend is ending. Housing is down $15k on average last
Month..

did you click and read the links?


“However, the most recent data shows that month-to-month price increases are decreasing. According to the most recent Regional Multiple Listing Service (RMLS) report, the median sale price in the Portland metro area decreased by $17,000, from $522,000 in July to $505,000 last month. That is a significant decrease. Although the Portland market remains competitive, buyers can take solace in the fact that there are fewer offers to contend with than there were earlier this year.

The new listings are coming up on the market but there are still fewer homes for sale in the Portland metro area. In a tight housing market like Portland, it can take some time to find a property that meets all of your criteria. If sales continue at the current pace, the 1.0 month of inventory of homes for sale reported in August indicates that it would take approximately four weeks to sell all available homes. When there are four to six months of inventory, a market is considered to be balanced between buyers and sellers.”

Its simple supply and demand…
 
Orion Bailey said:
per the links i posted your opinion would be incorrect. The upswing trend is ending. Housing is down $15k on average last
Month..

did you click and read the links?


“However, the most recent data shows that month-to-month price increases are decreasing. According to the most recent Regional Multiple Listing Service (RMLS) report, the median sale price in the Portland metro area decreased by $17,000, from $522,000 in July to $505,000 last month. That is a significant decrease. Although the Portland market remains competitive, buyers can take solace in the fact that there are fewer offers to contend with than there were earlier this year.

The new listings are coming up on the market but there are still fewer homes for sale in the Portland metro area. In a tight housing market like Portland, it can take some time to find a property that meets all of your criteria. If sales continue at the current pace, the 1.0 month of inventory of homes for sale reported in August indicates that it would take approximately four weeks to sell all available homes. When there are four to six months of inventory, a market is considered to be balanced between buyers and sellers.”

Its simple supply and demand…
Click to expand...
This is a normal dip. They happen pretty much every year or two.

Not even the largest recessions in our history have held priced down for 10 years. At some point between 5 and 10 years from now home prices will be higher than they are right now. They may dip between now and then, but they'll come back. Every real estate peak in history has dips exactly like your link.

There is far more long term demand than there is supply. We have among the best climates in the country, and shipping ports. The only thing that will cause people to evacuate this area is a natural disaster of some kind.
 
Shaboid said:
Drivers park in north Portland courtyard that was funded as carfree oasis

HOW DARE YOU!?
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offended-im.gif
 
Phatguysrule said:
This is a normal dip. They happen pretty much every year or two.

Not even the largest recessions in our history have held priced down for 10 years. At some point between 5 and 10 years from now home prices will be higher than they are right now. They may dip between now and then, but they'll come back. Every real estate peak in history has dips exactly like your link.

There is far more long term demand than there is supply. We have among the best climates in the country, and shipping ports. The only thing that will cause people to evacuate this area is a natural disaster of some kind.
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Well you are certainly entitled to your own opinion. However im not sure your opinion is as certain as you seem to think it is.

yes there are rise and falls in real estate but cities can also have rise and falls with a steady incline or decline. having watched the real estate market closely the last five years, having bought three homes and sold two,
The market is massively overinflated and peope are paying more than the actual value. This is nwver a good thing as people end up upside seldom during a downswing. market trends show our bubble is overdue to pop. And it will evsntually and then values will plummet and many peope will be upside down. Its been detailed out for a couple years now. The experts believe its inevitable.
When someone pays $50 over actual estimated value, they will lose out most of the time. combine that airh the timber industry coming back and making newer homes built cost less than the last few years means that new buyers will buy new homes at a more accurate value than a used home that is marked up more than the actual value.

As soon as some houses go up to offset the supply and demand, everyone that overpaid will be upside down.

Ill take their opinion over yours.
 
Orion Bailey said:
Well you are certainly entitled to your own opinion. However im not sure your opinion is as certain as you seem to think it is.

yes there are rise and falls in real estate but cities can also have rise and falls with a steady incline or decline. having watched the real estate market closely the last five years, having bought three homes and sold two,
The market is massively overinflated and peope are paying more than the actual value. This is nwver a good thing as people end up upside seldom during a downswing. market trends show our bubble is overdue to pop. And it will evsntually and then values will plummet and many peope will be upside down. Its been detailed out for a couple years now. The experts believe its inevitable.
When someone pays $50 over actual estimated value, they will lose out most of the time. combine that airh the timber industry coming back and making newer homes built cost less than the last few years means that new buyers will buy new homes at a more accurate value than a used home that is marked up more than the actual value.

As soon as some houses go up to offset the supply and demand, everyone that overpaid will be upside down.

Ill take their opinion over yours.
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Awesome. Feel free to make some financial decisions based on real estate prices dropping for a decade.

You should be able to make a killing.
 
There's no guarantee that enough new homes will be built to reduce the demand. Maybe the current supply chain and labor issues won't get worked out. Maybe other issues will arise. Unpredictable shit happens.

barfo
 
Phatguysrule said:
Awesome! Real-estate nearly always pays off if you hold it long enough.
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actually i sold just in time. The neighbor of my last home sale texted me last week saying he put his home up on the market and wished he had 6 months ago. Its now listed at $399 when he was advised last spring he could get around $450 for it.
If i would have held on longer i might not have seen the same profit i did when i sold.
 
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barfo said:
There's no guarantee that enough new homes will be built to reduce the demand. Maybe the current supply chain and labor issues won't get worked out. Maybe other issues will arise. Unpredictable shit happens.

barfo
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exactly. So its def not certain real estate will maintain value or keep going up aNd as i indicated and the links i provided said, the trend upward is about over.
Houses have skyrocketed in the costs to build. Lumber, plastics, trucking has all gone waaaayyy up over the last two years. As those prices fall back to the norm, the houses built and bought during that time will decrease in value to meet the mean.
All data indicates we could be in really tough tomes ahead with many people ending up upside down on their mortgage.
 
Orion Bailey said:
exactly. So its def not certain real estate will maintain value or keep going up aNd as i indicated and the links i provided said, the trend upward is about over.
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Agreed it's not certain, however lack of new houses built makes existing houses worth more.

Houses have skyrocketed in the costs to build. Lumber, plastics, trucking has all gone waaaayyy up over the last two years. As those prices fall back to the norm, the houses built and bought during that time will decrease in value to meet the mean.
Click to expand...

Assuming those supply prices fall. They might not.

All data indicates we could be in really tough tomes ahead with many people ending up upside down on their mortgage.
Click to expand...

Could be true, but that's speculation. We could also have inflation significant enough that people's mortgages become easier to pay.

Predictions are hard, especially about the future.

barfo
 
barfo said:
Agreed it's not certain, however lack of new houses built makes existing houses worth more.



Assuming those supply prices fall. They might not.



Could be true, but that's speculation. We could also have inflation significant enough that people's mortgages become easier to pay.

Predictions are hard, especially about the future.

barfo
Click to expand...
Were not going to stop building houses forever.
as soon as costs of goods level out, new housing developments will pop up again and buyers will buy the new homes over the overinflated used homes.

Costs of goods may not fall soon, but of/when they do, that means that the increase of real estate value is not true.
For example:
If my home is worth $20k more now than 2 years ago, but my cost of living went up by 10k then the net increase in value is not the same. So when we say a home increased in value by 20k over two years, thats not accurate.
As indicated in the articles i posted, the largest reason for the continued increase in value as well as inflation, is the roll off effects of covid.
So yes maybe. If covid sticks around forever, we may never see anything drop.
I believe were out of the covid issue in a year or two aNd in five years things are back to a relative normality.
If/when that happens, everyone who bought during this time, will have lost money.

predictions are hard. Thats why its considered a gamble by many. But as in gambling there are trends and odds and currently they do not favor a sustainable market as is.
 
Orion Bailey said:
Well you are certainly entitled to your own opinion. However im not sure your opinion is as certain as you seem to think it is.

yes there are rise and falls in real estate but cities can also have rise and falls with a steady incline or decline. having watched the real estate market closely the last five years, having bought three homes and sold two,
The market is massively overinflated and peope are paying more than the actual value. This is nwver a good thing as people end up upside seldom during a downswing. market trends show our bubble is overdue to pop. And it will evsntually and then values will plummet and many peope will be upside down. Its been detailed out for a couple years now. The experts believe its inevitable.
When someone pays $50 over actual estimated value, they will lose out most of the time. combine that airh the timber industry coming back and making newer homes built cost less than the last few years means that new buyers will buy new homes at a more accurate value than a used home that is marked up more than the actual value.

As soon as some houses go up to offset the supply and demand, everyone that overpaid will be upside down.

Ill take their opinion over yours.
Click to expand...
Well luckily you live wherever you live and not Portland….. you don’t have to worry about it. Just to let you know, my house will be worth $75-$100K more than today.
 
THE HCP said:
Well luckily you live wherever you live and not Portland….. you don’t have to worry about it. Just to let you know, my house will be worth $75-$100K more than today.
Click to expand...

everything i bought and sold except the house i bought and live in now, was done within the city limits of portland.
I beleive you live in one of the nicer areas in town and nice areas will always be the last to drop because the neighborhoods are better maintained.
 
THE HCP said:
Guess the Oregonian can’t make up their mind.

https://www.oregonlive.com/business...imb-portland-metro-monthly-market-report.html
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no doubt. I think some of it has to do with location, but also i think the push from real estate agents is this:
“Buy now before you pay even more next month!”
So data can be manipulated to show as much to get people to buy hastily, trying to avoid paying more down the road.
Thats just a thought. No rumors or evidence.
Funny how oregonlive has had two articles opposing each other. The only thing i can say is my article i posted is more recent than yours i believe? But why would a couple weeks make Ny real difference?

sooo tough to trust news and reports. This is a perfect example of why im so untrusting of anything these days.

The only other thing i can sat is we both posted oregon live but i did post. Other, likely more reputable source that also shows signs of a downswing coming.
Thanks for the link. We must all try to see all sides of things.
 
I feel for young people, as purchasing a home in PortMetro is almost cost prohibitive.
I read where we have the highest housing cost as a percentage of income.
My grandson said if I cant afford to buy a home here he’ll move to another State where he can.
 
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Hoopguru said:
I feel for young people, as purchasing a home in PortMetro is almost cost prohibitive.
I read where we have the highest housing cost as a percentage of income.
My grandson said if I cant afford to buy a hime here he’ll move to another State where he can.
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The wave is coming. Anyone buying now is going to be upside down in5 years in my opinion.
 
Orion Bailey said:
That sucks. Unfortunately this thread isn't about Cleveland, Philadelphia, or Charlotte.

We can create a thread for them though, i suppose?
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@THE HCP is, like, the Truman Burbank of Portland, Serial, dude.
 
Orion Bailey said:
actually i sold just in time. The neighbor of my last home sale texted me last week saying he out his hime up on the market and wished he had 6 months ago. Its now listed at $399 when he was advised last spring he could get around $450 for it.
If i would have held on longer i might not have seen the same profit i did when i sold.
Click to expand...
Then you just wait for it to go up again...
 
Orion Bailey said:
Were not going to stop building houses forever.
as soon as costs of goods level out, new housing developments will pop up again and buyers will buy the new homes over the overinflated used homes.

Costs of goods may not fall soon, but of/when they do, that means that the increase of real estate value is not true.
For example:
If my home is worth $20k more now than 2 years ago, but my cost of living went up by 10k then the net increase in value is not the same. So when we say a home increased in value by 20k over two years, thats not accurate.
As indicated in the articles i posted, the largest reason for the continued increase in value as well as inflation, is the roll off effects of covid.
So yes maybe. If covid sticks around forever, we may never see anything drop.
I believe were out of the covid issue in a year or two aNd in five years things are back to a relative normality.
If/when that happens, everyone who bought during this time, will have lost money.

predictions are hard. Thats why its considered a gamble by many. But as in gambling there are trends and odds and currently they do not favor a sustainable market as is.
Click to expand...
Where are they going to build? In Portland, with the urban growth boundary, there isn't anywhere.

People will keep moving here from California and driving prices up. There is more demand than Portland can meet for decades.
 
Orion Bailey said:
per the links i posted your opinion would be incorrect. The upswing trend is ending. Housing is down $15k on average last
Month..

did you click and read the links?


“However, the most recent data shows that month-to-month price increases are decreasing. According to the most recent Regional Multiple Listing Service (RMLS) report, the median sale price in the Portland metro area decreased by $17,000, from $522,000 in July to $505,000 last month. That is a significant decrease. Although the Portland market remains competitive, buyers can take solace in the fact that there are fewer offers to contend with than there were earlier this year.

The new listings are coming up on the market but there are still fewer homes for sale in the Portland metro area. In a tight housing market like Portland, it can take some time to find a property that meets all of your criteria. If sales continue at the current pace, the 1.0 month of inventory of homes for sale reported in August indicates that it would take approximately four weeks to sell all available homes. When there are four to six months of inventory, a market is considered to be balanced between buyers and sellers.”

Its simple supply and demand…
Click to expand...
My house is up nearly 60% since I bought it six years ago.
 
THE HCP said:
Well luckily you live wherever you live and not Portland….. you don’t have to worry about it. Just to let you know, my house will be worth $75-$100K more than today.
Click to expand...
No doubt about it.
 
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