What's Rudy Gay Worth?

[The_Lillard_King]

Memphis has a tough decision coming up here this summer. Gay was on pace to be the face of the franchise and heading towrds a huge pay day. I haven't been keeping up with him much this season (because I figured he will be locked down in Memephis for at least another 3-4 years) but this year Mayo and Gasol have come into play, heck even Conley could demand a big salary. I think The Griz are hurting financially . . . so do they offer Gay that huge contract?

They could do a cost cutting move and sign and trade Gay for a few role potential players with reasonable contracts. Outlaw, Webster, Bayless . .. three quality players for about the same price of one?

I know Gay's numbers have slipped this year, but age, position and character fits right in with the Blazers.

 

[Minstrel]

Gay has regressed this season, which is pretty worrying about his ultimate promise. His defense is also not that good. I don't see the point of dealing several good players for Gay, who has been merely average this season but will want to be paid like a star.

Doing a three-way where we get Gay and then flip him to a team that values him a lot and will give Portland a nice young point guard or something would be reasonable. I definitely don't want to deal significant talent to get Gay for Portland, though.

 

[Further]

Well, I think he still has a year on the cheap, then the Grizz will need to make a decision. I like Gay and think he would be a great complimentary starter IF he accepted that roll. I am not sure yet if he sees himself as a star-to-be, and if so, then PDX does not make sense for him. But, if he were interested in playing third fiddle, he would be a great addition.

 

[Natebishop3]

I haven't been very impressed with Gay this season, especially when we've played him.

 

[The_Lillard_King]

Gay has regressed this season, which is pretty worrying about his ultimate promise. His defense is also not that good. I don't see the point of dealing several good players for Gay, who has been merely average this season but will want to be paid like a star.

Doing a three-way where we get Gay and then flip him to a team that values him a lot and will give Portland a nice young point guard or something would be reasonable. I definitely don't want to deal significant talent to get Gay for Portland, though.

Appreciate the response.

What I like about Gay is I think he fits the character of the team. I remember reading last year about how he conducts himself on and off the court, that he is mature and composed.

The fact his numbers are down was the only reason I thought he might be attainable. Last year he sure look like he was headed towards a near max contract. Now I wonder if the Griz are having second thoughts. Maybe that should also be a huge red flag for the Blazers (figured Blazers will factor that in) . . . but again, given the economy, it thought it might be a way for the Blazers to snag a potential all star SF entering the prime of his career.

Good point about defense . . . which the Blazers want from the SF position. Also, big name players like this are harder to obtain in reality. I do think the Blazers are going to be aggressive this summer to thin out their roster and add a key player.

 

[STOMP]

Gay has regressed this season, which is pretty worrying about his ultimate promise. His defense is also not that good. I don't see the point of dealing several good players for Gay, who has been merely average this season but will want to be paid like a star.

doesn't everybody... I know I do. Unfortunately no one wants to pay me like one.

I like his game/upside more then the three then the OP proposed sending out to attain him, but I can't say I like him more then Batum... thats why I wouldn't target him. I'm fine with a Batum/Outlaw combo at the 3.

STOMP

 

[The_Lillard_King]

This is what makes me think it is make or break for the Griz and Gay this summer:

One of the Grizzlies' offseason priorities will be to sign Rudy Gay to a contract extension.

That springtime fact already puts the organization and Gay on the same page for what could be a busy summer.

While the 6-8 forward is focused on finishing this regular season on a strong note, Gay has one eye on his future. And Gay said his offseason goal is to work out a deal that keeps him as an integral part of the Grizzlies' rebuilding.

"As a player and a person, I want to be set going into next season," Gay said as the Griz prepared to play a road game tonight against the New Orleans Hornets. "I want to be comfortable and work on trying to be an All-Star. So yeah, (an extension) is important to me."

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

Eh. No thanks. I'd rather take a look at Conley Jr., or even Ben Gordon.

 

[Minstrel]

doesn't everybody... I know I do. Unfortunately no one wants to pay me like one.

The problem is, if Portland doesn't, he'll choose to hit the market and sign with someone else. In which case, Portland simply loses all the talent they traded for him, for a single season of Gay.

That's the danger with trading for an overrated player...even if you aren't crazy enough to overpay, you take the hit by watching him leave and ending up with nothing.

 

[The_Lillard_King]

The problem is, if Portland doesn't, he'll choose to hit the market and sign with someone else. In which case, Portland simply loses all the talent they traded for him, for a single season of Gay.

That's the danger with trading for an overrated player...even if you aren't crazy enough to overpay, you take the hit by watching him leave and ending up with nothing.

Well my proposal was for a sign and trade (Rudy is up for an extention this summer), I don't think it would be worth it if Gay wasn't locked up in a contract.

But from what I'm reading about Gay . . . even if locked up, many don't think he be would worth it. He definitely wants big bucks . . . I wonder what kind of contract he can get this summer?

 

[PapaG]

Gay has regressed this season.

Regressed is a pretty harsh assessment. He's averaging less shots/game than last season. The other numbers are similar to last season, and he still shoots 45% from the field and 35% from 3-pt.

OJ Mayo has become that team's primary option on offense. Whether that is a good thing or a bad thing remains to be seen. I can't see how Rudy Gay has "regressed", however. His comments about working on being an "All-Star" turn me off the most regarding his potential as a member of this current Blazer team.

 

[Minstrel]

Regressed is a pretty harsh assessment. He's averaging less shots/game than last season. The other numbers are similar to last season, and he still shoots 45% from the field and 35% from 3-pt.

OJ Mayo has become that team's primary option on offense. Whether that is a good thing or a bad thing remains to be seen. I can't see how Rudy Gay has "regressed", however.

He hasn't regressed a lot, but his scoring efficiency is significantly down. His TS% (which is basically points per shot / 2) is down more than his FG%, which means not only is he shooting the ball a bit worse from the field, he's also drawing fewer free throws. He wasn't way above average last year, so even a small regression has pushed him back to about average.

The main problem is that, at his age and experience, he should be getting better, not slightly worse. At his scoring efficiency, he's not an elite scorer, and that's about all he does. He's similar to Travis Outlaw, except that Outlaw is a more efficient scorer while Gay passes slightly better.

 

[PapaG]

He hasn't regressed a lot, but his scoring efficiency is significantly down. His TS% (which is basically points per shot / 2) is down more than his FG%, which means not only is he shooting the ball a bit worse from the field, he's also drawing fewer free throws. He wasn't way above average last year, so even a small regression has pushed him back to about average.

The main problem is that, at his age and experience, he should be getting better, not slightly worse. At his scoring efficiency, he's not an elite scorer, and that's about all he does. He's similar to Travis Outlaw, except that Outlaw is a more efficient scorer while Gay passes slightly better.

I'm not arguing that Gay should be an option for this team, and as I pointed out in my amended original post, his "All-Star" comment would make me stay away from him. Still, he was the best player starting this season for a very bad team, and teams geared their defense around stopping him. He's still averaging 19ppg on a bad team where OJ Mayo and Mike Conley dominate the ball. Not much Gay more Gay can do offensively at this point, although he's been averaging over 22 ppg with almost 6 rpg recently while the Grizz have actually won some games.

Good potential system player on a bad, young team that changes coaches and has a fluid roster? Perhaps that is Rudy Gay right now.

 

[The_Lillard_King]

Regressed is a pretty harsh assessment. He's averaging less shots/game than last season. The other numbers are similar to last season, and he still shoots 45% from the field and 35% from 3-pt.

OJ Mayo has become that team's primary option on offense. Whether that is a good thing or a bad thing remains to be seen. I can't see how Rudy Gay has "regressed", however. His comments about working on being an "All-Star" turn me off the most regarding his potential as a member of this current Blazer team.

Outlaw says the same thing . . . that he expects to be an all star.

 

[Minstrel]

He's still averaging 19ppg on a bad team where OJ Mayo and Mike Conley dominate the ball. Not much Gay more Gay can do offensively at this point, although he's been averaging over 22 ppg with almost 6 rpg recently while the Grizz have actually won some games.

Yes, but I'm not criticizing him for diminished points per game. I understand that points per game is quite dependent on circumstances. My point is that his scoring efficiency has dropped. Having more scoring options on the team should have the reverse effect...with the defense having to focus on more players and with Gay taking fewer shots, he should be converting at a better clip, not a worse one. Thus, I think his drop in scoring efficiency is a sign of regression rather than just a teammate-dependent effect.

 

[STOMP]

The problem is, if Portland doesn't, he'll choose to hit the market and sign with someone else. In which case, Portland simply loses all the talent they traded for him, for a single season of Gay.

That's the danger with trading for an overrated player...even if you aren't crazy enough to overpay, you take the hit by watching him leave and ending up with nothing.

come on Min, you're overstating things

he could sign with someone else if one of the few teams with capspace (in this economy and with a shrinking lux tax line) chooses to offer him a fat deal... thats far from a given. SF isn't a position of need for most teams

and again, I like Batum and Travis as a SF combo just fine

STOMP

 

[MAS RipCity]

Honestly, Gay is one of my top 3 fv non-Blazers, but I think Outlaw is just as good as him, comes without an ego (not saying Gay has one, but Trav doesn't), is clutch, and on a rookie deal. Not to mention, we have Batum as our SF of the future.

 

[Minstrel]

come on Min, you're overstating things

he could sign with someone else if one of the few teams with capspace (in this economy and with a shrinking lux tax line) chooses to offer him a fat deal... thats far from a given. SF isn't a position of need for most teams

I don't think it's overstating things. Gay seems to have a superior reputation than his play warrants. A lot of teams are maneuvering to be under the cap in the 2010 off-season. Not for Gay, of course, but a team that doesn't get James/Bosh/Wade/Amare may well offer Gay more than he's worth. 2010 is a good off-season to be a free agent. I think you're understating his ability to get more than he's worth.

 

[Natebishop3]

At this point, I'm convinced that Nic Batum is the small forward of the future. I think Outlaw is nice coming off the bench, and I think Webster can fill the starting role for now (if he ever comes back). Would I like to add a star forward at that spot? Sure, but there is so man unanswered questions about that position right now. If we could have gotten Gerald Wallace, Caron Butler, or Rudy Gay before the trade deadline, I would have been all for it, but right now I'm not sure about that position.

Now point guard is a whoooole other situation. I think we need to sign someone or trade for someone in the offseason. Point guard is such a critical position, and I'm not convinced that Steve Blake or Sergio are the answer. Jerryd Bayless could be a star at that spot, but it's pretty clear that he's not ready to take over. I would love to see us sign an Andre Miller, or a Mike Bibby, or trade for someone like Kirk Hinrich.

 

[La Bomba]

If Gay played some defense he would have great value, but he doesn't, that is why many people view him as a sixth man in his future. His athleticism makes his defense better than they should be.

Offensively he is extremely talented but has a low IQ. He takes jumpshots when he could drive it or pass it and he is a player that can be ether very hot one game and the next he can't buy a shot. He needs some time to mature on both ends.

 

[Natebishop3]

If Gay played some defense he would have great value, but he doesn't, that is why many people view him as a sixth man in his future. His athleticism makes his defense better than they should be.

Offensively he is extremely talented but has a low IQ. He takes jumpshots when he could drive it or pass it and he is a player that can be ether very hot one game and the next he can't buy a shot. He needs some time to mature on both ends.

Sounds like Travis Outlaw.

 

[Sinobas]

For some reason, I don't even notice Gay much when we play Memphis, though on paper, he's their best player. I remember that last year, I was very impressed with him...thinking..man is Roy or Gay the best player from that draft. Well now, it's unquestionably Roy of course.

Maybe he's a quite producer, like Rahim. He would be a great addition to the team though, if we could perhaps trade Outlaw, Webster and a pick for him. We'd also probably have to take back a bad contract, like Jaric.

Would Memphis hand him to us on a silver platter like they gave LA Gasol?

 

[La Bomba]

For some reason, I don't even notice Gay much when we play Memphis, though on paper, he's their best player. I remember that last year, I was very impressed with him...thinking..man is Roy or Gay the best player from that draft. Well now, it's unquestionably Roy of course.

Maybe he's a quite producer, like Rahim. He would be a great addition to the team though, if we could perhaps trade Outlaw, Webster and a pick for him. We'd also probably have to take back a bad contract, like Jaric.

Would Memphis hand him to us on a silver platter like they gave LA Gasol?

No because Gay doesn't have a fat contract like Gasol and hasn't publicly expressed that he wants to be traded also like Gasol.

 

[The_Lillard_King]

If Gay played some defense he would have great value, but he doesn't, that is why many people view him as a sixth man in his future. His athleticism makes his defense better than they should be.

Offensively he is extremely talented but has a low IQ. He takes jumpshots when he could drive it or pass it and he is a player that can be ether very hot one game and the next he can't buy a shot. He needs some time to mature on both ends.

Thanks for the insight. Given that, he doesn't sound like a fit with the Blazers (no D, low IQ)

Do you think he gets the extention he wants this summer and how much?

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

Batum is our future three. Like the above poster said about Gay, Batum is the opposite - High bball IQ/very good defensively.

 

[STOMP]

I don't think it's overstating things. Gay seems to have a superior reputation than his play warrants. A lot of teams are maneuvering to be under the cap in the 2010 off-season. Not for Gay, of course, but a team that doesn't get James/Bosh/Wade/Amare may well offer Gay more than he's worth. 2010 is a good off-season to be a free agent. I think you're understating his ability to get more than he's worth.

acting like its a foregone conclusion that the market will bear a max (superstar) type contract for him is a real stretch. He's a good (not great) talent at probably the easiest to fill position and he's coming up for Free Agency at the worst possible time because finances will be restricting.

I'm not sure what reputation you're siting, but dude was a late lotto choice and is regressing statistically on a bad team... I very much doubt he'll garner a max deal

STOMP

 

[La Bomba]

By my post above you guys probably think that I see Gay as a player we shouldn't keep. I am still high on Gay but he just needs time to mature. I think our coach should do what Erik Spoelstra did for Mike Beasley. Basically said play defense or play off the bench.

 

[PapaG]

I don't think it's overstating things. Gay seems to have a superior reputation than his play warrants. A lot of teams are maneuvering to be under the cap in the 2010 off-season. Not for Gay, of course, but a team that doesn't get James/Bosh/Wade/Amare may well offer Gay more than he's worth. 2010 is a good off-season to be a free agent. I think you're understating his ability to get more than he's worth.

Based on what? Half of the teams in the NBA taking a cut-rate loan financed by the NBA right now to stay afloat? I'm guessing we're on a way to a lock-out if things aren't dramatically altered in the way the NBA does business.

 

[Minstrel]

acting like its a foregone conclusion that the market will bear a max (superstar) type contract for him is just not true.

I never said a "max contract." I said there's a pretty solid chance that he could get an offer for more than he's worth. There's room between what he's worth (about MLE as things stand) and a max contract.

As for reputation, I'm not citing any specific source. My feeling is that Gay is viewed as a young, emerging star. He could still become one, but right now I don't think that that's what he is.

 

[Minstrel]

Based on what?

On the fact that teams have been maneuvering to get under the cap in anticipation of James, Wade, Bosh and Stoudemire hitting the free agent market.