What's Rudy Gay Worth?

[STOMP]

I never said a "max contract." I said there's a pretty solid chance that he could get an offer for more than he's worth. There's room between what he's worth (about MLE as things stand) and a max contract.

thats my position that you took issue with... you stated that Portland would have to pay him like a star (stars make the max) or someone else would and the Blazers would lose him outright.

STOMP

 

[PapaG]

On the fact that teams have been maneuvering to get under the cap in anticipation of James, Wade, Bosh and Stoudemire hitting the free agent market.

So, if you're one of the players who will already be maxed, it's a good thing. If you're Rudy Gay, you'll take whatever you can get above the MLE regardless of the four you mentioned. Think Darius Miles without a panic buy by the Blazers.

Are you living in an economic bubble right now?

 

[Minstrel]

thats my position that you took issue with... you stated that Portland would have to pay him like a star (stars make the max) or someone else would and the Blazers would lose him outright.

That wasn't quite my position. My position was that he would want to be paid like a star in order to do an extension. If Portland didn't offer him that kind of salary, he'd choose to go on the free agent market. Once on the free agent market, I think there's a good chance that he'd get an offer for more than he's worth (not necessarily a max deal) and that Portland would have to better that offer to keep him (after being rejecting in his initial demands, he likely wouldn't return for the same amount another team offered him).

Therefore, they'd have to pay him significantly more than he's worth (in my opinion), or else lose him and the talent they traded for him.

 

[Minstrel]

So, if you're one of the players who will already be maxed, it's a good thing. If you're Rudy Gay, you'll take whatever you can get above the MLE regardless of the four you mentioned.

No, if you're Rudy Gay, you'll take the best offer you can get from one of the teams who cleared cap space but failed to get any of James/Bosh/Wade/Stoudemire. Which may be considerably more than the MLE.

 

[STOMP]

Sounds like Travis Outlaw.

he's younger, more coordinated, and has better all around game then Travis. Purely based on physical talents, I'd put his upside higher for sure.

STOMP

 

[PapaG]

No, if you're Rudy Gay, you'll take the best offer you can get from one of the teams who cleared cap space but failed to get any of James/Bosh/Wade/Stoudemire. Which may be considerably more than the MLE.

Or it may not be, if people see Rudy Gay as nothing more than filler now on a bad team, as many here seem to view him.

Why pay luxury tax money to be a mediocre team when people can't afford tickets? Go the Oakland A's route and overperform if at all possible.

 

[Minstrel]

Or it may not be, if people see Rudy Gay as nothing more than filler now on a bad team.

Why pay luxury tax money to be a mediocre team when people can't afford tickets?

Possibly. I don't think he'll be flooded by offers, but there's often one or two bad decision-makers with some money to spend and a desire to make a "big splash." Gay is, at least, a somewhat name player.

You mentioned Darius Miles and Portland's "panic buy" but there are likely to be teams who have been selling "cap space" to their fans as a panacea and will feel the pressure to get someone who is plausibly young and talented, as Nash did with Miles.

 

[PapaG]

Possibly. I don't think he'll be flooded by offers, but there's often one or two bad decision-makers with some money to spend and a desire to make a "big splash." Gay is, at least, a somewhat name player.

You mentioned Darius Miles and Portland's "panic buy" but there are likely to be teams who have been selling "cap space" to their fans as a panacea and will feel the pressure to get someone who is plausibly young and talented, as Nash did with Miles.

I don't see many teams with Allen money to panic on an overpriced contract in this climate, especially for a player who doesn't win. He is a lower-priced version of Gerald Wallace at this point. I wonder how bad Charlotte wants to unload Wallace's contract right now.

 

[STOMP]

That wasn't quite my position. My position was that he would want to be paid like a star in order to do an extension. If Portland didn't offer him that kind of salary, he'd choose to go on the free agent market. Once on the free agent market, I think there's a good chance that he'd get an offer for more than he's worth (not necessarily a max deal) and that Portland would have to better that offer to keep him (after being rejecting in his initial demands, he likely wouldn't return for the same amount another team offered him).

Therefore, they'd have to pay him significantly more than he's worth (in my opinion), or else lose him and the talent they traded for him

you don't pay someone more then they're worth in an extension unless your GM is an idiot (John Nash). The team is offering security of a long term deal and usually gets a break in price for offering guaranteed dollars in advance.

few teams will be able to offer more then a MLE deal in the 2010 off season and fewer still will have need of a starting SF. While it only takes one good offer for a guy to leave, I still contend that you're overstating things thinking that a significantly greater then MLE offer will definitely be there for him in 2010 unless he does really big things next year.

STOMP

 

[Minstrel]

I don't see many teams with Allen money to panic on an overpriced contract in this climate, especially for a player who doesn't win.

True, but Allen was in cost-cutting mode at that time. Nash didn't have unlimited resources to spend...he had a decent payroll and spent it unwisely. If New York can't get two of the top free agents, after having demolished their roster to get cap space, I could certainly see them offering Gay an overpriced deal. Similar players to Gay (Miles, Larry Hughes, Eddie Robinson, etc) have parlayed a few good/decent seasons and a rep as an up-and-coming star wing into fairly large deals for the time.

While it only takes one good offer for a guy to leave, I still contend that you're overstating things thinking that a significantly greater then MLE offer will definitely be there for him in 2010 unless he does really big things next year.

I didn't say "definitely," but I think there's a pretty solid likelihood. Whether I'm overstating it or you're understating it, we'll have to disagree.

Not that it's particularly important, as I don't think this is going to end up a situation for Portland to deal with.

 

[Tince]

So, if you're one of the players who will already be maxed, it's a good thing. If you're Rudy Gay, you'll take whatever you can get above the MLE regardless of the four you mentioned. Think Darius Miles without a panic buy by the Blazers.

Are you living in an economic bubble right now?

I see you point here, but I would conclude that being a free agent in 2010 is much better than being a free agent this year.

To me, the most likely scenario is that a handful of teams will get under the cap with the hope they can bring LeBron, Bosh, Wade, etc. However, history has proven that it is very rare for superstar free agents to leave their team, especially in the prime of their career. Sure there are examples of it happening, and one of those guys will probably go elsewhere, but that will leave a lot of teams with significant cap space, a thin roster, and the pressure to avoid going into the next season with a horrible team. In those cases, guys like Gay will get 9/10 million a year, which to me, is too much.

 

[maxiep]

What Gay showed me this year is he has trouble not being the primary offensive option. And when he's not getting his touches, he zones out of most other phases of the game. That being said, he's a supreme talent.

 

[LittleAlex]

Rudy Gay = Harvey Grant

 

[Nikolokolus]

What Gay showed me this year is he has trouble not being the primary offensive option. And when he's not getting his touches, he zones out of most other phases of the game. That being said, he's a supreme talent.

You nailed it ... I get the distinct feeling he's lost some mojo with Mayo coming in and getting all the hype and a ton of the offense run through him.

Having said that, I still think Memphis has a very good shot at being a very very good team in a couple of years if they keep Conley, Mayo, Gay and Gasol together.

 

[Masbee]

At this point, I'm convinced that Nic Batum is the small forward of the future. I think Outlaw is nice coming off the bench, and I think Webster can fill the starting role for now (if he ever comes back). Would I like to add a star forward at that spot? Sure, but there is so man unanswered questions about that position right now. If we could have gotten Gerald Wallace, Caron Butler, or Rudy Gay before the trade deadline, I would have been all for it, but right now I'm not sure about that position.

Now point guard is a whoooole other situation. I think we need to sign someone or trade for someone in the offseason. Point guard is such a critical position, and I'm not convinced that Steve Blake or Sergio are the answer. Jerryd Bayless could be a star at that spot, but it's pretty clear that he's not ready to take over. I would love to see us sign an Andre Miller, or a Mike Bibby, or trade for someone like Kirk Hinrich.

This is where I am at right now.

This summer and before the trade deadline I wanted to make a consolidation trade and upgrade either or both of the 1 and 3 spot. Looking at what seemed to be out there and who might be available it just seemed that there were a lot more impact players potentially availalbe at SF then PG. The PG I was most interested in trying to snag last summer was Chauncey Billups. Once he went to Denver, we really only had good options at the 3. And when you consider the big name SF's that were thrown around at the trade deadline, that turned out to be the case.

After passing on the deals at the trade deadline, after watching almost an entire season of the Blazers, I have switched back to trying hard to snag a point guard. Why?

Batum has been a stunner this season. I don't know if he will be a star, but I certainly don't want him to be traded now for anything short of a prime star (ie Caron Butler), and I don't want to bring in a prime vet who will block Batum's development (ie Richard Jefferson, who I opposed trading for).

Add in Outlaw, Webster, & Roy, and we have lots of guys that can platoon the small forward position to make sure it is not a point of major weakness.

Bayless did not contribute. We don't know what we have with him, and it is likely a ways off.

Sergio has not improved enough to matter.

Blake is fine, but would be an outstanding backup guard.

I am not a fan of Bibby. Hinrich is not the player he once was. If he was, I want that guy. That leaves Miller. Defends. Creates. Passes. An above average player who isn't a me-me guy. Makes a great fit with star Roy and budding stars Aldridge and Oden.

Andre Miller would be perfect if only he had a long jumper. Even with that hole in his game, he may be the best option this summer, if we can keep Blake so the coaches have options.

 

[Nikolokolus]

...

I am not a fan of Bibby. Hinrich is not the player he once was. If he was, I want that guy. That leaves Miller. Defends. Creates. Passes. An above average player who isn't a me-me guy. Makes a great fit with star Roy and budding stars Aldridge and Oden.

Andre Miller would be perfect if only he had a long jumper. Even with that hole in his game, he may be the best option this summer, if we can keep Blake so the coaches have options.

Hinrich is a tough call for me, I wonder how much of this year's struggles can be attributed to his thumb injury and missed time and/or being jerked in and out of the starting lineup by Del Negro; not having a clearly defined role can really bugger a player's game up.

As for Miller, I've been thinking about him for awhile now, I worry a little about his age (33-34 next season) and the lack of a perimeter game could be troublesome at times, but he does have a good mid-range shot out to about 16-18 feet which allows him to create a little bit of space for the bigs. As long as you surround him with credible outside shooters (Roy, Fernandez, Aldrdige, Webster and possibly Batum if he keeps improving his shot) I think the difference can be made up with his outstanding post-up game, his ability to finish, and most importantly his ability to get into the lane and create shots for Greg and LaMarcus around the hoop.

Mark my words, if we get Miller you will see more transition buckets and Greg and LaMarcus will get at least 3 or 4 more open looks underneath the basket per game, I'll take that over a point guard hoisting threes any day of the week.

 

[Tince]

Rudy Gay = Harvey Grant

Bad comparison.

Rudy Gay's career averages are already better than Grants, and he already has a better season under his belt than Grant ever put together in 10+ seasons.

 

[Masbee]

I think the difference can be made up with his outstanding post-up game, his ability to finish, and most importantly his ability to get into the lane and create shots for Greg and LaMarcus around the hoop.

Mark my words, if we get Miller you will see more transition buckets and Greg and LaMarcus will get at least 3 or 4 more open looks underneath the basket per game, I'll take that over a point guard hoisting threes any day of the week.

Good point. Miller is much better than anyone we have at setting up bigs and delivering a lob pass.

Notice how many times this season we have complained about the guards inability (refusal?) to work/risk to get the bigs lobs. Jesus man, with the way Joel is a willing diver to the hoop and how huge Greg is, we should see tons of lobs. Then add in lobs to Rudy, Outlaw, Roy, etc. and Miller would rack up the assists like a madman.

The age issue brings up a good point - Miller would be a short-term solution for sure. I don't want to bring him in for big, long money. I don't think any other team will offer him that anyway.

 

[STOMP]

The age issue brings up a good point - Miller would be a short-term solution for sure. I don't want to bring him in for big, long money. I don't think any other team will offer him that anyway.

that dude has missed a total of 5 games in his entire NBA career alleviates some of the age concerns IMO. That he has posted some of his most impressive stats the last two seasons also bodes well.

I'd think a 3 year deal at 8M per would be a ballpark offer of what it would take to sign him.

STOMP