When does the "Needle Mover" happen?

[TBpup]

Most fans enjoy a good trade and that hope that something better will come of it. But despite the anticipation of a trade that will 'move the needle', (for quite some time) Neil Olshey's time in Portland has been rife with bargain basement shopping off the proverbial rack.

Want a list of players not acquired via the Draft? This is a 'Who's Who' list of bench players for the most part.

JJ Hickson Ronnie Price Sasha Pavlovic
Eric Maynor Allen Crabbe Dorell Wright
Earl Watson Thomas Robinson Robin Lopez
Terrell Harris Mo Williams Chris Kaman
Steve Blake Arron Afflalo Alonzo Gee
Tim Frazier Mason Plumlee Pat Connaughton
Al-Farouq Aminu Ed Davis Luis Montero
Maurice Harkless Cliff Alexander Noah Vonleh
Brian Roberts Evan Turner Festus Ezeli
Shabazz Napier Tim Quartermann

http://www.prosportstransactions.co...=yes&BeginDate=2012-6-1&submit=Search&start=0

Working for one of the richest owners in all of sports and now with the 2nd highest payroll in the entire NBA, that bucket of mostly refuse is what there is to show since 2012. Lopez, Plumlee, Aminu and more recently Harkless have been the only legit starters out of that group and most could make a very good argument that 3 of the 4 would not be starters for a quality playoff team.

29 players and only Lopez has been a starter both before and/or after his time in Portland. That is not exactly a resume' one would send out to highlight great accomplishment. Neil comes across as very well spoken and someone who could sell a glass of water to a drowning man but the history doesn't seem to back that up.

Is Portland really that tough of a place to get players to come to or is Neil just not as good as many hoped he would be?

 

[SlyPokerDog]

I want a needle mover NOW!

 

[e_blazer]

Most fans enjoy a good trade and that hope that something better will come of it. But despite the anticipation of a trade that will 'move the needle', (for quite some time) Neil Olshey's time in Portland has been rife with bargain basement shopping off the proverbial rack.

Want a list of players not acquired via the Draft? This is a 'Who's Who' list of bench players for the most part.

JJ Hickson Ronnie Price Sasha Pavlovic
Eric Maynor Allen Crabbe Dorell Wright
Earl Watson Thomas Robinson Robin Lopez
Terrell Harris Mo Williams Chris Kaman
Steve Blake Arron Afflalo Alonzo Gee
Tim Frazier Mason Plumlee Pat Connaughton
Al-Farouq Aminu Ed Davis Luis Montero
Maurice Harkless Cliff Alexander Noah Vonleh
Brian Roberts Evan Turner Festus Ezeli
Shabazz Napier Tim Quartermann

http://www.prosportstransactions.co...=yes&BeginDate=2012-6-1&submit=Search&start=0

Working for one of the richest owners in all of sports and now with the 2nd highest payroll in the entire NBA, that bucket of mostly refuse is what there is to show since 2012. Lopez, Plumlee, Aminu and more recently Harkless have been the only legit starters out of that group and most could make a very good argument that 3 of the 4 would not be starters for a quality playoff team.

29 players and only Lopez has been a starter both before and/or after his time in Portland. That is not exactly a resume' one would send out to highlight great accomplishment. Neil comes across as very well spoken and someone who could sell a glass of water to a drowning man but the history doesn't seem to back that up.

Is Portland really that tough of a place to get players to come to or is Neil just not as good as many hoped he would be?

Players don't get a say in trade deals, so the attributes of the city aren't a factor. Probably 99% of NBA trades aren't needle movers and those that are usually involve high end players going both directions. The Blazers haven't had many of those types of players lately. They probably had a shot to make such a move with LA, but chose to try to retain him. Bad move, ultimately.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

In Portland you're more likely to get a needle exchange.

 

[Minstrel]

Working for one of the richest owners in all of sports and now with the 2nd highest payroll in the entire NBA, that bucket of mostly refuse is what there is to show since 2012. Lopez, Plumlee, Aminu and more recently Harkless have been the only legit starters out of that group and most could make a very good argument that 3 of the 4 would not be starters for a quality playoff team.

29 players and only Lopez has been a starter both before and/or after his time in Portland. That is not exactly a resume' one would send out to highlight great accomplishment. Neil comes across as very well spoken and someone who could sell a glass of water to a drowning man but the history doesn't seem to back that up.

Is Portland really that tough of a place to get players to come to or is Neil just not as good as many hoped he would be?

Portland is a very tough place to get a premium free agent. Not very many of them move around and they have so many offers that they can choose based on "soft" factors (like how much they like the area, the glamor of the team, etc) rather than the actual money. So free agency is probably not going to be a factor, no matter who the GM is.

As for trades, there's a sense that "good GMs" are capable of ripping other teams off, but that's rarely true. It's rare that there's a truly incompetent front office out there to take advantage of. Most trades need to appear win-win at the time they happen. Obviously, not all trades end up win-win because players disappoint, get injured, etc. But almost all trades are somewhat balanced at the time they happen based on the information at the time. So while fans constantly dream up "lots of my trash for your single superstar" trades, GMs in the real world don't propose them because they know they'll be rejected and don't want to lose credibility around the league. So how do you pull off a "needle-mover" of a trade? By trading needle-movers of your own and hoping the player(s) you get overperform their past and the player(s) you trade don't. If Olshey considers moving Lillard or McCollum, he may be able to pull off a "needle-mover" trade--of course, the needle could end up moving the wrong way for Portland and the right way for the other team. That's the risk you take.

"Sweet talk" doesn't turn Vonleh, Crabbe and Leonard into a star. You have to give up big value to get big value. Most GMs aren't willing to trade their own stars unless they know that star is likely to leave for nothing. So "needle-move" trades are rare. Olshey may never do one. Most GMs may never do one.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

Dame, CJ and Plums have all moved my needle this season.

 

[LicketyBrindle]

Enticing top tier free agents to Portland has always been a challenge. The list of free agents we've landed who were even able to come in and be solid to good starters is rather short IMO. Rod Strickland, Kenny Anderson, Brian Grant, Andre Miller, Wes Mathews. I may have missed a couple but my point is the same. None of these players with the exception of Mathews ever played a long or ultimately significant role in Blazer history. As luck goes, we've probably had just as much in some of the ones we didn't land as well.

The GM of this franchise is going to need to build this team through identifying high value in the draft and making shrewd if not bold moves/trades. Much like early 90s Drexler teams. Get something solid going that you can sell and then maybe the free agents come. If thought we were going this direction before the offseason now I'm not sure how he plans on fixing it or if he thinks it needs fixing.

 

[julius]

playing a better brand of defense would be a needle mover. Whether that comes from a change in the teams mindset on defense OR a trade for a defensive (young) big man, I don't know.

 

[Minstrel]

playing a better brand of defense would be a needle mover. Whether that comes from a change in the teams mindset on defense OR a trade for a defensive (young) big man, I don't know.

Somewhat in this vein, to me, Olshey's best plan forward would be to convert Lillard or McCollum into a two-way star who may not be quite as great offensively, but still very good offensively and also good/very good on defense (Jimmy Butler stands in as the model acquisition here). Once you have your foundational star tandem (let's say Lillard/Butler), then start working mid-tier free agency and lower-key trades to turn the role-players we have into role-players with better defense. Harkless is a good start. A player like Noel would be nice. Hitting on a draft pick to get a good three-and-D player could round things out nicely. A mix of offensive and defensive role-players on the bench would be helpful.

None of these things are impossible or even historically unusual. It'll just take making quite a few good moves with few missteps over the next couple of years.

 

[UncleCliffy'sDaddy]

Dame, CJ and Plums have all moved my needle this season.

So "needle" is what she calls that thing.....(in before BG)

 

[oldfisherman]

The only trades I questioned when made were overpaying Denver for the Dorell rental, and if we waited too long to trade Batum.

The one FA we let get away without making an offer (at least that was made public) was ROLO. He would have fit in perfectly with this roster. I miss ROLO, and do not understand why we let him get away, for nothing.

Going forward, our best option is to get lucky in the deep draft. We have two first round picks and Houston’s second. PA needs to hire a regiment of scouts to find a needle mover, or two, in this draft.

Guess I like to look forward, not backwards.

 

[HomerLovesKoolAid]

S2 is full of limp needles.

Time to refill the Slyagra.

 

[e_blazer]

Dame, CJ and Plums have all moved my needle this season.

Like that's difficult.
A picture of an Old Maid card moves your needle.

 

[Blazers Roy]

Even if SAC offers as Cousins for Turner and draft picks we'll have to decline it because Paul Allen is still traumatized.

 

[OSUBlazerfan]

You didnt mention the best FA we've ever signed; Andre Miller

 

[SlyPokerDog]

Like that's difficult.
A picture of an Old Maid card moves your needle.

Leave your wife out of this.

 

[e_blazer]

Leave your wife out of this.

LOL.

Go back to humping the mailman's leg.

 

[SheedSoNasty]

We should share needles with other teams. That's a sure way to get what we really want.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I think Neil's performance has been a mixed bag. His drafting is pretty good (Lillard, McCollum, Crabbe). Trading Barton for Afflalo wasn't great. He found some decent value players like Plumlee, Aminu, Davis, etc. but he also handed out some very questionable contracts this last summer for bench players like Turner and Crabbe and Meyers. Win some, you lose some I guess.

But where it gets hard to defend him, is situations like losing Aldridge for nothing; especially when there were warning signs he was a flight risk as much as a year prior. Maybe his hands were tied by Allen, or maybe the organization got bamboozled by Aldridge talking about being "the greatest Blazer ever!"? Who knows? Whatever the reasons, the buck stops with him and he gets paid to be a couple of steps ahead of looming problems and the fact is, he let an All-star player walk out of the door for zero compensation.

The other part of Olshey's tenure that baffles me is the organization pursuing what looks like a very tenuous path to building a contender -- eschewing the draft after losing 4 of 5 starters two years ago and instead trying to rebuild a small market team with cast-offs and retreads that don't exactly fit together. Sure that team surprised us all (and probably Olshey too) by getting to the playoffs, but it sure felt like they were punching above their weight and had a very limited ceiling (as evidenced by the major regression we've seen so far this year).

Maybe this is all part of some long-game that I don't see yet, and he'll redeem himself with a trade that balances this mismatched roster in the next couple of months? If he doesn't then there's plenty of people in the world that want one of the 30 GM jobs in the league and I'm guessing we'll have a new person to criticize and second-guess in a year or so.

 

[UncleCliffy'sDaddy]

I think Neil's performance has been a mixed bag. His drafting is pretty good (Lillard, McCollum, Crabbe). Trading Barton for Afflalo wasn't great. He found some decent value players like Plumlee, Aminu, Davis, etc. but he also handed out some very questionable contracts this last summer for bench players like Turner and Crabbe and Meyers. Win some, you lose some I guess.

But where it gets hard to defend him, is situations like losing Aldridge for nothing; especially when there were warning signs he was a flight risk as much as a year prior. Maybe his hands were tied by Allen, or maybe the organization got bamboozled by Aldridge talking about being "the greatest Blazer ever!"? Who knows? Whatever the reasons, the buck stops with him and he gets paid to be a couple of steps ahead of looming problems and the fact is, he let an All-star player walk out of the door for zero compensation.

The other part of Olshey's tenure that baffles me is the organization pursuing what looks like a very tenuous path to building a contender -- eschewing the draft after losing 4 of 5 starters two years ago and instead trying to rebuild a small market team with cast-offs and retreads that don't exactly fit together. Sure that team surprised us all (and probably Olshey too) by getting to the playoffs, but it sure felt like they were punching above their weight and had a very limited ceiling (as evidenced by the major regression we've seen so far this year).

Maybe this is all part of some long-game that I don't see yet, and he'll redeem himself with a trade that balances this mismatched roster in the next couple of months? If he doesn't then there's plenty of people in the world that want one of the 30 GM jobs in the league and I'm guessing we'll have a new person to criticize and second-guess in a year or so.

I hope the new guy can live without valet parking.......

 

[Denny Crane]

LMA wasn't as tradable as you make it sound. As a pending UFA, any trade partner would be taking the risk he bolts.

As well, our best outcome would be him re-signing. By far.

 

[Nikolokolus]

LMA wasn't as tradable as you make it sound. As a pending UFA, any trade partner would be taking the risk he bolts.

As well, our best outcome would be him re-signing. By far.

I'm thinking about the year before he was UFA. There were some rumblings that he wasn't happy in Portland (as best as I can recall). It doesn't matter, it's all second-guessing at this point. If Matthews' ankle explodes before the trade deadline during his FA year, maybe they move him to the team of his choice for a pick? Who knows?

 

[Denny Crane]

I'm thinking about the year before he was UFA. There were some rumblings that he wasn't happy in Portland (as best as I can recall). It doesn't matter, it's all second-guessing at this point. If Matthews' ankle explodes before the trade deadline during his FA year, maybe they move him to the team of his choice for a pick? Who knows?

NO made it clear his preference was to either keep the team together or rebuild. He made every good faith effort to keep LMA, and thus the others. Trading for Aflallo was one of those efforts. Without 20-20 hindsight, it improved our chances in the playoffs. Even though we got no tangible asset for him, we did get cap relief. I do think ET is better than Aflallo, so we actually made out ok.

 

[UncleCliffy'sDaddy]

NO made it clear his preference was to either keep the team together or rebuild. He made every good faith effort to keep LMA, and thus the others. Trading for Aflallo was one of those efforts. Without 20-20 hindsight, it improved our chances in the playoffs. Even though we got no tangible asset for him, we did get cap relief. I do think ET is better than Aflallo, so we actually made out ok.

I've never understood the Aflallo love around the league but sure has made him a nice living.

 

[Denny Crane]

I've never understood the Aflallo love around the league but sure has made him a nice living.

He's big at 6'5", and is a 3D guy. He's a career .384 3pt shooter, and his 12.3 career PER is good for a backup player.

As a starter, he put up 18/3.5/3.5 at SG.

His contract is hardly something to complain about at $12.5M

 

[oldfisherman]

The only trades I questioned when made were overpaying Denver for the Dorell rental, and if we waited too long to trade Batum.

Correction, I meant Arron Afflalo, not Dorell.

 

[oldfisherman]

 

[BLAZINGGIANTS]

She moves my "needle" most nights before bed.

But she doesn't call it a needle.

 

[Strenuus]

She moves my "needle" most nights before bed.

But she doesn't call it a needle.

Thimble, huh?

 

[Orion Bailey]

She moves my "needle" most nights before bed.

But she doesn't call it a needle.

Sliver?