When Everyone Gets Back and Fully Healthy.....

[ABM]

......are the Blazers a legitimate contending team?

 

[tlongII]

Yes.

 

[kjironman1]

......are the Blazers a legitimate contending team?

"Contending"? Probably not. The situation is bad. Just getting into the Playoffs will be tough. Trying to get to a position where they can win a series will be even tougher.
In the end there is a reason they play the games. Key injuries at crucial times have had curious effects on the Playoffs. They also say "If you make the playoffs? Anything can happen."

 

[mook]

......are the Blazers a legitimate contending team?

Dame is playing like a top 2 or 3 player. We've got the best shooter in a league dominated by perimeter shooting. When you've got a guy like that and a good roster, you're a contender.

 

[jonnyboy]

I’d love to at least get the 8th spot and give the Lakers a hard time in the first round.

 

[Boise Blazer]

I'm not saying it's going to happen but the satisfaction of beating the Lakers as the 8th seed would be beyond words.

Or an improbable run the WCF as the 8th seed??? Classic. People would be going nuts.

The ONLY thing about this streak for Lillard that is unfortunate is that I wish it was during the playoffs.

 

[kjironman1]

I’d love to at least get the 8th spot and give the Lakers a hard time in the first round.

This is what I've been thinking also. Even if they don't take the series. A solid 8th spot can have a huge effect on the Playoffs in general. How would a game 6 win against the Lakers here in Portland to force a game 7 go down? Anything can happen in a game 7 and we all know that.

 

[wizenheimer]

......are the Blazers a legitimate contending team?

I don't like to jinx things by assuming everybody is healthy. Sometimes, injury-filled seasons are like bop-a-mole. Somebody important is always in street clothes

as for being a contender...I don't think so. They weren't last year, and this year's team isn't better. I suppose if you're assuming the top-teams aren't as good as past top-teams over the last few years, you could put on homer glasses, stretch your imagination, and see the Blazers contending, and even winning.

but the thing is Portland hasn't done anything to solve their kryptonite: other teams selling out the defense to stop Dame by using length, doubles, hedges, and traps. That's how Portland has been closed out of the playoffs the previous 4 years. That's why Portland is 1-16 in those closeout series and have lost 14 games in a row.

 

[Hoopguru]

I don't like to jinx things by assuming everybody is healthy. Sometimes, injury-filled seasons are like bop-a-mole. Somebody important is always in street clothes

as for being a contender...I don't think so. They weren't last year, and this year's team isn't better. I suppose if you're assuming the top-teams aren't as good as past top-teams over the last few years, you could put on homer glasses, stretch your imagination, and see the Blazers contending, and even winning.

but the thing is Portland hasn't done anything to solve their kryptonite: other teams selling out the defense to stop Dame by using length, doubles, hedges, and traps. That's how Portland has been closed out of the playoffs the previous 4 years. That's why Portland is 1-16 in those closeout series and have lost 14 games in a row.

Agree the most part however, if Nurk comes back and Melo & Ariza along with bench contribute we will be a very dangerous team if we make the playoffs?
Having Whiteside too provides both a low post defender and scorer especially with better spacing with Melo and TA. More so than with AFA & Mo.

 

[wizenheimer]

Agree the most part however, if Nurk comes back and Melo & Ariza along with bench contribute we will be a very dangerous team if we make the playoffs?
Having Whiteside too provides both a low post defender and scorer especially with better spacing with Melo and TA. More so than with AFA & Mo.

Portland had a healthy Nurkic and a healthy Ed Davis when the Pelicans swept them. CJ averaged 25 with great efficiency and the Pels didn't worry a bit about CJ beating them...rightfully

IMO, in order to be a real contender, Portland needs a major talent at the wing or at PF. A Kawhi or a PG13 or even a Siakam. Rearranging role players isn't going to make Portland a contender and neither is a different rotation in the 3rd option or lower. Portland needs a player that can consistently punish a team for focusing on Lillard. Somebody who can crush scoring while getting others involved, and who can help well on defense. That's not CJ and it's not Nurkic

 

[Terry Stotts]

as for being a contender...I don't think so. They weren't last year, and this year's team isn't better.

The idea of this thread is that everyone is healthy. This team is absolutely better than last years team if everyone is healthy.

 

[Wade Garrett]

Having both Nurk and Whiteside would go a long way in combating the Lakers size....
There is that.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

Portland had a healthy Nurkic and a healthy Ed Davis when the Pelicans swept them. CJ averaged 25 with great efficiency and the Pels didn't worry a bit about CJ beating them...rightfully

IMO, in order to be a real contender, Portland needs a major talent at the wing or at PF. A Kawhi or a PG13 or even a Siakam. Rearranging role players isn't going to make Portland a contender and neither is a different rotation in the 3rd option or lower. Portland needs a player that can consistently punish a team for focusing on Lillard. Somebody who can crush scoring while getting others involved, and who can help well on defense. That's not CJ and it's not Nurkic

Ariza is a better all-around forward / wing then they've had in a long time (except maybe hood?). Not sure why he wasn't doing anything in Sac, but he's a good defender, a smart offensive player, can hit layups, you don't get uneasy when he has the ball. He's not PG13, or Kawhi, but he's a big upgrade over Baze, ET, Moe or Aminu, Though Ariza and Aminu would be a really good pairing IMO.
He's old so you wonder how long his body holds up. I hate the Melo signing but I tend to think if they're in the playoffs he might work out ok when the game slows down and he can play bully ball.

Also, Dame is getting better, even without going supernova the last few games he's a better player today then he was in that pelican series, just as Whiteside is better than that version of Nurk, and Nurk was better last year than the year before too.

 

[wizenheimer]

The idea of this thread is that everyone is healthy. This team is absolutely better than last years team if everyone is healthy.

LOL..."absolutely"

 

[wizenheimer]

Also, Dame is getting better, even without going supernova the last few games he's a better player today then he was in that pelican series, just as Whiteside is better than that version of Nurk, and Nurk was better last year than the year before too.

that's a lot of assumptions to unpack

start with the notion that some of Portland's players are better than they were when the Blazers got swept by a 6th seed when Blazers had HCA, so somehow...that makes Portland a true contender?
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another thing, it's true Nurkic was better last year than he was the year before. But why would anybody believe that Nurkic will be better this season, or even just as good by the time the playoffs roll around? Nurkic was injured in his first 5-on-5 practice about 7-10 days ago, and hasn't practiced again since. It's looking like he might not play till March and that's only 6 weeks before the playoffs start. And he'll very likely have a minutes restriction when he does return. He will have been out for a year....he's not going to be returning to form quickly

also, having 2 big C's sounds great, but the way the playoffs have gone the last few year is that almost every good team has small-ball lineups they use a lot, and use successfully. Gasol only played 30 minutes a game in the playoffs for Toronto last season. Anticipating that Whiteside/Nurkic will be able to split 48 minutes a game is simply not realistic
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besides that, when Dame is picked up by the defense at halfcourt, and doubled outside of the arc, it's not going to be a C that comes out to the 3 point line, receives the bail-out pass, and solves the riddle that CJ, Curry, Napier, Aminu, Turner, and Harkless haven't solved. Nurk and Whiteside don't have the skillsets to do so. And neither do Ariza, or Melo, or Simons, or Trent

 

[Hoopguru]

that's a lot of assumptions to unpack

start with the notion that some of Portland's players are better than they were when the Blazers got swept by a 6th seed when Blazers had HCA, so somehow...that makes Portland a true contender?
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another thing, it's true Nurkic was better last year than he was the year before. But why would anybody believe that Nurkic will be better this season, or even just as good by the time the playoffs roll around? Nurkic was injured in his first 5-on-5 practice about 7-10 days ago, and hasn't practiced again since. It's looking like he might not play till March and that's only 6 weeks before the playoffs start. And he'll very likely have a minutes restriction when he does return. He will have been out for a year....he's not going to be returning to form quickly

also, having 2 big C's sounds great, but the way the playoffs has gone the last few year is that almost every good team has small-ball lineups they use a lot, and use successfully. Gasol only played 30 minutes a game in the playoffs for Toronto last season. Anticipating that Whiteside/Nurkic will be able to spit 48 minutes a game is simply not realistic
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besides that, when Dame is picked up by the defense at halfcourt, and doubled outside of the arc, it's not going to be a C that comes out to the 3 point line, receives the bail-out pass, and solves the riddle that CJ, Curry, Napier, Aminu, Turner, and Harkless haven't solved. Nurk and Whiteside don't have the skillsets to do so. And neither do Ariza, or Melo, or Simons, or Trent

Ive seen Whiteside Melo and TA come out to three point line to help Dame out alot more so than when Nurk & Davis played against NO.

 

[Chris Craig]

Look...

 

[Chris Craig]

Yes. The Blazers healthy can beat anyone

 

[Scalma]

Assuming everyone is healthy and no more moves, a potential playoff rotation could be something like

Dame
CJ
Ariza
Melo
Nurk
Whiteside
Collins
Trent
Nas/Simons/the others


That’s a pretty good rotation. Still think they need another lead guard for the second unit.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

that's a lot of assumptions to unpack

start with the notion that some of Portland's players are better than they were when the Blazers got swept by a 6th seed when Blazers had HCA, so somehow...that makes Portland a true contender?
************************************************************

another thing, it's true Nurkic was better last year than he was the year before. But why would anybody believe that Nurkic will be better this season, or even just as good by the time the playoffs roll around? Nurkic was injured in his first 5-on-5 practice about 7-10 days ago, and hasn't practiced again since. It's looking like he might not play till March and that's only 6 weeks before the playoffs start. And he'll very likely have a minutes restriction when he does return. He will have been out for a year....he's not going to be returning to form quickly

also, having 2 big C's sounds great, but the way the playoffs has gone the last few year is that almost every good team has small-ball lineups they use a lot, and use successfully. Gasol only played 30 minutes a game in the playoffs for Toronto last season. Anticipating that Whiteside/Nurkic will be able to spit 48 minutes a game is simply not realistic
************************************************************

besides that, when Dame is picked up by the defense at halfcourt, and doubled outside of the arc, it's not going to be a C that comes out to the 3 point line, receives the bail-out pass, and solves the riddle that CJ, Curry, Napier, Aminu, Turner, and Harkless haven't solved. Nurk and Whiteside don't have the skillsets to do so. And neither do Ariza, or Melo, or Simons, or Trent

It's not an assumption. Whiteside is better right now than Nurkic was the year of the pelicans series. Nurkic was better last year than the year before. Those are facts not assumptions. I did not say that those things made them a contender did I? However I will say this, really good young players growing up into superstars is how championships are usually won, it took Jordan and Lebron a while to grow into champions. Lebron even got there twice before winning. Steph got better and better until he broke out. So yeah, having Dame actually in his prime instead of just under does mean that he's closer now to a Championship level superstar then he was 2 years ago. (I am not saying Dame is as good as MJ or Lebron).
I never said Nurkic will be back and playing at that level this year either. That's why I talked about Whiteside because chances are he's not being traded and he's a better C than they had available last year in the playoffs and the pelican series since he's better now than Nurk was in that pelican series, but having Nurk if he's anything close to what he was last year like 75% is better back up C than they've had all year, which helps...

The notion of the thread though is if everyone's healthy (which they wont be because Hood is gone until sometime next season). I am saying though that Ariza is a better Wing then they had last year on the roster (with maybe Hood as the exception), he's got a more well-rounded game than either Aminu or Harkless. Are they "contenders" if healthy? Heck I don't know but those aren't assumptions in my mind it's the truth, oh and Trent does have decent size defensively too, they can play small if they have too.

I also disagree with you about the riddle of the trap at half court, we've already seen the Blazers do different things to attack that this year, and they have worked, Dame's shooting more 35 footers (and making them) so teams are spreading themselves out a lot, Ariza, and Melo are way more capable of putting the ball on the floor and not making a mistake then Moe or Aminu were. They've been running a lot of sets where Dame has a bail out option on the opposite wing usually a guy who can shoot or put the ball on the floor and teams aren't trapping as hard.

Again don't know if that makes them a contender, but I think overall if healthy and guys playing the roles they're meant to play they are better than the team they lost to the pelicans in 4, which when you bring up the pelican series you're implying they aren't. I still think they're probably not there talent-wise unless health favors them and the young guys really grow up rapidly, but there is no doubt in my mind having Dame doing come back down to earth and just play at his "averages" he's still a top 5 NBA player right now, and that goes a long ways towards the goal. Probably a few things working against them, they probably need one more solid starter type player, and the hole they dug themselves means even if they got lucky enough to beat LA or Den they won't have HCA in any round of the playoffs.

I've hated the talent on the team with the injuries, and especially before they traded baze, because none of the players fit, they were bad in their roles. Half of them didn't even seem to know what their roles are, but when they're playing the intended roles they're a different team, and it helps that Dame is playing out of his mind, which he will come back down eventually.

 

[wizenheimer]

Ive seen Whiteside Melo and TA come out to three point line to help Dame out alot more so than when Nurk & Davis played against NO.

in my view, that doesn't matter. Sure, just about any player can receive the bail-out pass when Dame is doubled. CJ has been doing that. But then, those other 4 players have to run the offense successfully, and do it consistently; and they haven't been able to do so. The offense breaks down all the damn time. CJ can get his points, at times, but he can't run an offense to save his life against playoff defense and playoff intensity. Portland has not had any player close to capable of punishing a defense for a Dame-centic focus and force an adjustment by the opponent, any adjustment. Hell, they faced the Warriors for the 3rd time in 4 playoffs last year; the Warriors employed the exact same defense they had the two previous times and Portland couldn't even win 1 game as they lost their 10th straight playoff game against them. If they had solved the riddle in any fashion they should have at least won one game, but they couldn't...and Durant didn't even play

I get that in a Blazer forum people want to believe the Blazers are contenders in the best of all possible worlds. You guys might be right. But what I've seen is that Portland has a massive weakness that opponents exploit in the playoffs: their best player, their best scorer, and their only player capable of consistently running the offense is all the same guy. And when an opponent can take him out of the equation, they take out the best player, scorer, and only true facilitator. Whiteside is not going to solve what CJ & friends haven't solved. Ariza & Melo aren't solving it either....IMO

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

in my view, that doesn't matter. Sure, just about any player can receive the bail-out pass when Dame is doubled. CJ has been doing that. But then, those other 4 players have to run the offense successfully, and do it consistently; and they haven't been able to do so. The offense breaks down all the damn time. CJ can get his points, at times, but he can't run an offense to save his life against playoff defense and playoff intensity. Portland has not had any player close to capable of punishing a defense for a Dame-centic focus and force an adjustment by the opponent, any adjustment. Hell, they faced the Warriors for the 3rd time in 4 playoffs last year; the Warriors employed the exact same defense they had the two previous times and Portland couldn't even win 1 game as they lost their 10th straight playoff game against them. If they had solved the riddle in any fashion they should have at least won one game, but they couldn't...and Durant didn't even play

I get that in a Blazer forum people want to believe the Blazers are contenders in the best of all possible worlds. You guys might be right. But what I've seen is that Portland has a massive weakness that opponents exploit in the playoffs: their best player, their best scorer, and their only player capable of consistently running the offense is all the same guy. And when an opponent can take him out of the equation, they take out the best player, scorer, and only true facilitator. Whiteside is not going to solve what CJ & friends haven't solved. Ariza & Melo aren't solving it either....IMO

Just last night guys they used to receive passes and make offensive plays off of traps vs Dame off the top of my head Biggie, Trent, Melo, CJ, Simons, Ariza and Whiteside all scored or created a scoring opportunity off of the Jazz taking the ball out of Dame's hands. Again not saying they are contenders even healthy, but I think you're missing the fact they are attacking those traps differently and getting the ball to guys who are in a position to attack or create offense rather then who are just retreating hoping to get the ball back to Dame. Cause that's been the real stupid part of all of it, a team traps Dame hard he outlets and most of the time they'd dribble it back out and try to get the ball BACK to him instead of do something. It's actually forcing teams to stay honest more because they are doing different things to attack those traps.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

Anyways @wizenheimer who knows they might not be and probably arent contenders this year because even if they would be fully healthy its asking a lot of guys to come back healthy and not need time to get into a rhythm. I will crawl back into my hole, hope you’re doing well. Cheers.

 

[Hoopguru]

Just last night guys they used to receive passes and make offensive plays off of traps vs Dame off the top of my head Biggie, Trent, Melo, CJ, Simons, Ariza and Whiteside all scored or created a scoring opportunity off of the Jazz taking the ball out of Dame's hands. Again not saying they are contenders even healthy, but I think you're missing the fact they are attacking those traps differently and getting the ball to guys who are in a position to attack or create offense rather then who are just retreating hoping to get the ball back to Dame. Cause that's been the real stupid part of all of it, a team traps Dame hard he outlets and most of the time they'd dribble it back out and try to get the ball BACK to him instead of do something. It's actually forcing teams to stay honest more because they are doing different things to attack those traps.

I saw Little cutting last night as Dame was being trapped and during the bailout Little was hit with the pass and an easy bucket.

 

[stampedehero]

......are the Blazers a legitimate contending team?

A fantasy and day dream with little time for the team to escape 8th seed if they achieved such a goal.

 

[wizenheimer]

Just last night guys they used to receive passes and make offensive plays off of traps vs Dame off the top of my head Biggie, Trent, Melo, CJ, Simons, Ariza and Whiteside all scored or created a scoring opportunity off of the Jazz taking the ball out of Dame's hands. Again not saying they are contenders even healthy, but I think you're missing the fact they are attacking those traps differently and getting the ball to guys who are in a position to attack or create offense rather then who are just retreating hoping to get the ball back to Dame. Cause that's been the real stupid part of all of it, a team traps Dame hard he outlets and most of the time they'd dribble it back out and try to get the ball BACK to him instead of do something. It's actually forcing teams to stay honest more because they are doing different things to attack those traps.

I think you're missing the fact that last night wasn't the playoffs

 

[stampedehero]

Assuming everyone is healthy and no more moves, a potential playoff rotation could be something like

Dame
CJ
Ariza
Melo
Nurk
Whiteside
Collins
Trent
Nas/Simons/the others


That’s a pretty good rotation. Still think they need another lead guard for the second unit.

When is Collins to re appear.?

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

I think you're missing the fact that last night wasn't the playoffs

Yup well when you talk about playoffs you seem to gloss over the times they win there too. So, apparently their losses in the playoffs are all that matter. Last year they did beat two teams but we skip those and do what we can to make it sound like those meant nothing so we can skip to the losses. Which is fine, but you gotta win regular season games to even get there and you have to use the regular season to create good habits too, so the fact they’re working on beating that defense now instead of waiting til March seems like a decent way to go. Kobe always said you gotta fall in love with the process, the process includes the regular season.

 

[wizenheimer]

Yup well when you talk about playoffs you seem to gloss over the times they win there too. So, apparently their losses in the playoffs are all that matter. Last year they did beat two teams but we skip those and do what we can to make it sound like those meant nothing so we can skip to the losses. Which is fine, but you gotta win regular season games to even get there and you have to use the regular season to create good habits too, so the fact they’re working on beating that defense now instead of waiting til March seems like a decent way to go. Kobe always said you gotta fall in love with the process, the process includes the regular season.

I'm just about done with this discussion, and I'll tell you one reason: last year going into the playoffs (after Nurkic was out) I was having a debate with two or three posters here (and on RealGM as well) about this very thing. They kept saying that Portland was doing things that 'solved' the problem. They gave examples...just like you just did. I was saying the same thing to: that the Blazers didn't have an answer when teams attacked Dame with length and doubles

OKC didn't do it at all and Dame torched them. Denver did it quite a bit but Denver doesn't have good back court length and Harris is the only good perimeter defender. Still Dame's efficiency in that series cratered after the OKC series. And the Warriors then came in and did the same thing they had done forever against Dame...and sweep. All the "solutions" that people talked about Portland finding in the regular season just vanished. Maybe this year's solutions are better, but I'm not going to believe it, for a second, until I see it

I'm not even sure what you're arguing here...are you saying Portland will be a contender when the playoffs start?

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

The reason why I say we skip over their wins is because before the playoffs last year all the talk was how crappy they had been in the playoffs and how big that was for Russ and Dame because one of them was going to he 1st round exiters 3 years running. Then Dame won and Then they beat Denver and then in here over the summer a lot of people basically said well OKC really actually sucked, and Denver was young so they sucked, so lets not talk about those wins and lets actually talk about the last few years the series they lost in. So its like when they win we’ll find ways to say it didnt matter, when they lose we’ll talk about how important that is.

Anyways I should fulfill my promise and go back to working.