When Everyone Gets Back and Fully Healthy.....

[bobf]

Most contending teams have 2-3 all-stars, a couple elite defenders, and are surrounded with shooters.

When healthy, I don't think our roster checks any of those boxes unforunately.

Nurk was probably better than half the west all stars last year. Hassan is up there too. To me that counts as 2+ All stars. That’s also two elite defenders though only one on the court at any time. Collins has the potential to be a great defender though he’s not proved anything yet.

The problem as I see it is our depth. To contend we’d need Trent, Skal, and Little to all blossom into average+ players and one of them, probably Trent, to become a starting level player. And we need to ditch Melo ASAP which we won’t of course. He’s terrible and he detracts from those player’s PT.

 

[Tince]

The Utah Jazz! Oh, wait...

A good example of having 2 or 3 top-tier players but never getting there.

Clyde and Company is another great example from the same era.

Hard to compare teams 30's apart because the styles of the game has changed so much, but it would be interesting to breakdown the differences from the Clyde team and this team. Could make a case the current #1 is better (though it's debatable). Not sure the comparisons 2-9 would be that close, but again, very hard to do.

 

[Tince]

Nurk was probably better than half the west all stars last year. Hassan is up there too. To me that counts as 2+ All stars. That’s also two elite defenders though only one on the court at any time. Collins has the potential to be a great defender though he’s not proved anything yet.

The problem as I see it is our depth. To contend we’d need Trent, Skal, and Little to all blossom into average+ players and one of them, probably Trent, to become a starting level player. And we need to ditch Melo ASAP which we won’t of course. He’s terrible and he detracts from those player’s PT.

Totally on board with your second paragraph in regards to depth; it's a real issue.

I think you'd have a hard time finding a majority of non-Blazer fans who would agree with your first paragraph in terms of Nurk or Whiteside being all-star caliber players. The voting by players or media last year do not indicate they have them ranked inside the top 30 of frontcourt players in the West. I have no problem with you saying they're good defenders, even though they have some liabilities, they're a net positive for sure.

 

[wizenheimer]

Nurk was probably better than half the west all stars last year..

LeBron James
James Harden
Kevin Durant
Damian Lillard
Klay Thompson
Karl-Anthony Towns
LaMarcus Aldridge
Anthony Davis
Stephen Curry
Paul George
Russell Westbrook
Nikola Jokić

better? no...maybe at the level of Klay, LMA, and Westbrook. 8 are definitely better, and I think you can make a case for a couple more

but more than that is that C's...true big men....don't lead teams to championships anymore. Here are the last 15 league MVP's:

G. Antetokounmpo
J. Harden
R. Westbrook
S. Curry
S. Curry
K. Durant
L. James
L. James
D. Rose
L. James
L. James
K. Bryant
D. Nowitzki
S. Nash
S. Nash

and here are the last 15 finals MVP's:

Tim Duncan (3)
Dwyane Wade
Tony Parker
Paul Pierce
Kobe Bryant
Kobe Bryant (2)
Dirk Nowitzki
LeBron James^
LeBron James^ (2)
Kawhi Leonard^
Andre Iguodala^
LeBron James^ (3)
Kevin Durant^
Kevin Durant^ (2)
Kawhi Leonard^ (2)

Dirk was tall, but he was a perimeter player. Out of those 30 MVP's, Duncan was the only big, and he was 15 years ago. It's almost all wings...that's how teams contend and win championships. There's a little hope because there are some PG's among those names, but the last one, Rose, was 9 years ago and he was a controversial choice

Portland would be bucking long odds by having a PG as the best player and a maybe-all-star C as their 2nd best player. The problem, again, is that C's don't win championships any more, and Portland's best player is 6'2 and much easier to shut down than a ball-handling wing. Out of 51 Finals MVP's, only two have been PG's like Dame, Tony Parker in 2007 and Isiah Thomas in 1990.

Portland needs a wing as talented as Dame, but that's a big ask, especially when the GM is clinging so tightly to an undersized non-all-star SG

 

[tester551]

If this is your roster then its very very good. But how do you make that work money-wise. Perhaps someone can enlighten us how regarding how you can pay all those bills? Hassan will want 12-15M a year. Ariza? Melo? Did getting rid of Bazemore make this more feasible??

Dame
CJ
Ariza
Melo
Nurk
Whiteside
Collins
Trent
Nas/Simons/the others

$31.6m Dame
$29.3m CJ
$14.1m Nurk
$12.8m Ariza
$6.0m Hood
$5.4m Collins
$2.2m Simons
$2.2m Little
$1.9m Mario
$1.7m Trent
$107.2m for 10 players

$4.8m dead cap hit (Nicholson & Varejao)

Signings:
$3.6m Melo (using Bi-annual)
$13.0m Whiteside (using Bird Rights)
$3.8m TBD (1st round pick)
$1.5m Gabriel (using part of MLE)
$4.0m Skal (using Bird Rights)
$25.9m for 5 new players

TOTAL: $137.9m (15 players), but Portland would still have most of the MLE left as long as they don't go over the hardcap line.

Projected cap ~$115m, so tax line would be ~$139m & hard cap would be ~$145m

 

[HailBlazers]

IDK but we're better than last year.

 

[bobf]

better? no...maybe at the level of Klay, LMA, and Westbrook. 8 are definitely better, and I think you can make a case for a couple more
....Portland needs a wing as talented as Dame, but that's a big ask, especially when the GM is clinging so tightly to an undersized non-all-star SG

Ok not 1/2 but I would take last year’s Nurk over LMA, Westbrook, and KAT any day. Klay is a close call.

Yeah I wish we had a dominant wing but they aren’t easy to come by. I’d love to have Iggy, one of my fav players ever, even if he is long in the tooth.

Anyway this was to contend, not necessarily to win.

 

[bobf]

Totally on board with your second paragraph in regards to depth; it's a real issue.

I think you'd have a hard time finding a majority of non-Blazer fans who would agree with your first paragraph in terms of Nurk or Whiteside being all-star caliber players. The voting by players or media last year do not indicate they have them ranked inside the top 30 of frontcourt players in the West. I have no problem with you saying they're good defenders, even though they have some liabilities, they're a net positive for sure.

Fans like silky offense and underrate defense. I would take Nurk and Whiteside over LMA and KAT without a thought.

Defensively RPM ranked them 7th and 14th in the NBA last year, both ahead of AD. BPM has Nurk basically the same as AD and HW a bit worse. Both in the ballpark of Rudy Gobert..

 

[Lanny]

No.

-Lillard can't average 50 PPG in the playoffs.
-Our guards get ZERO respect from the refs, you can beat them down in the paint and get away with it.
-We don't have a big Forward who can impose his will in the playoffs like Kawai,Lebron,AD,Giannis etc.
-We don't rebound the ball and allow too many threes.
-Terry Stotts.

Who's going to average 50 points in the playoffs?

 

[hoopsjock]

I'd like to know what NBA championship team had a compariable roster to this one?

This might be weird to say but the team that came to mind for me with how Dame's been playing is the Kobe-led Lakers who won it in 2009 and 2010.

Obviously Kobe was a bigger wing than Dame is so I'm not trying to argue that a PG is the same as a big wing but in terms of them dominating scoring baskets. Gasol those two years averaged around 18 and 11 as the 2nd best player but the thing that made him a great fit was his passing ability, basketball IQ, and his mesh mentally with Kobe. If healthy, Nurk can play similarly and has a connection with Dame. Whiteside has been better than Bynum was, plus Bynum was injured a lot too (more Nurk like). The problem is that neither Whiteside or Nurk can play the 4 like Gasol could.

But yeah, in terms of a team winning with a scoring machine, a great big man, and mostly role players I think that's a decent comparison.

 

[hoopsjock]

Ariza is a better all-around forward / wing then they've had in a long time (except maybe hood?). Not sure why he wasn't doing anything in Sac, but he's a good defender, a smart offensive player, can hit layups, you don't get uneasy when he has the ball. He's not PG13, or Kawhi, but he's a big upgrade over Baze, ET, Moe or Aminu, Though Ariza and Aminu would be a really good pairing IMO.
He's old so you wonder how long his body holds up. I hate the Melo signing but I tend to think if they're in the playoffs he might work out ok when the game slows down and he can play bully ball.

Also, Dame is getting better, even without going supernova the last few games he's a better player today then he was in that pelican series, just as Whiteside is better than that version of Nurk, and Nurk was better last year than the year before too.

Whoa, what's this? @TorturedBlazerFan is talking about basketball again?

 

[Blazers Roy]

Who's going to average 50 points in the playoffs?

Which playoff team NEEDS a player to average 50 points in order to win?

 

[DDolla]

Question... who is better? Hassan or a Healthy Nurk?

 

[Phatguysrule]

that's a lot of assumptions to unpack

start with the notion that some of Portland's players are better than they were when the Blazers got swept by a 6th seed when Blazers had HCA, so somehow...that makes Portland a true contender?
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another thing, it's true Nurkic was better last year than he was the year before. But why would anybody believe that Nurkic will be better this season, or even just as good by the time the playoffs roll around? Nurkic was injured in his first 5-on-5 practice about 7-10 days ago, and hasn't practiced again since. It's looking like he might not play till March and that's only 6 weeks before the playoffs start. And he'll very likely have a minutes restriction when he does return. He will have been out for a year....he's not going to be returning to form quickly

also, having 2 big C's sounds great, but the way the playoffs have gone the last few year is that almost every good team has small-ball lineups they use a lot, and use successfully. Gasol only played 30 minutes a game in the playoffs for Toronto last season. Anticipating that Whiteside/Nurkic will be able to split 48 minutes a game is simply not realistic
************************************************************

besides that, when Dame is picked up by the defense at halfcourt, and doubled outside of the arc, it's not going to be a C that comes out to the 3 point line, receives the bail-out pass, and solves the riddle that CJ, Curry, Napier, Aminu, Turner, and Harkless haven't solved. Nurk and Whiteside don't have the skillsets to do so. And neither do Ariza, or Melo, or Simons, or Trent

That 6 seed Pelicans team was a contender when healthy (I have them as the 3rd best team, behind GSW and Houston). They just weren't healthy very much. They were very healthy against Portland in that series.

 

[Hoopguru]

Question... who is better? Hassan or a Healthy Nurk?

Healthy Nurk and still very young....but injuries are a problem

 

[Phatguysrule]

I'm just about done with this discussion, and I'll tell you one reason: last year going into the playoffs (after Nurkic was out) I was having a debate with two or three posters here (and on RealGM as well) about this very thing. They kept saying that Portland was doing things that 'solved' the problem. They gave examples...just like you just did. I was saying the same thing to: that the Blazers didn't have an answer when teams attacked Dame with length and doubles

OKC didn't do it at all and Dame torched them. Denver did it quite a bit but Denver doesn't have good back court length and Harris is the only good perimeter defender. Still Dame's efficiency in that series cratered after the OKC series. And the Warriors then came in and did the same thing they had done forever against Dame...and sweep. All the "solutions" that people talked about Portland finding in the regular season just vanished. Maybe this year's solutions are better, but I'm not going to believe it, for a second, until I see it

I'm not even sure what you're arguing here...are you saying Portland will be a contender when the playoffs start?

This is an excellent post. The Blazers have not shown yet that they can defeat a great team which blankets Dame with two long defenders.

Dame is great. He's creeping up on Walton as best Blazer ever, IMO. Can he hit from the logo with 2 long defenders on him? Maybe once per game. Is that an offense we should rely on? No.

I like to think when doubled up top he'll be able to find either Ariza or CJ for 3, or if they're covered they should be able to swing it to a post for the open layup. I really do think we're better prepared for this with Ariza in the line-up than we have been in the past. Credit to NO for "lucking into" another upgrade.

Is it enough? I'm not sure...

 

[Scalma]

$31.6m Dame
$29.3m CJ
$14.1m Nurk
$12.8m Ariza
$6.0m Hood
$5.4m Collins
$2.2m Simons
$2.2m Little
$1.9m Mario
$1.7m Trent
$107.2m for 10 players

$4.8m dead cap hit (Nicholson & Varejao)

Signings:
$3.6m Melo (using Bi-annual)
$13.0m Whiteside (using Bird Rights)
$3.8m TBD (1st round pick)
$1.5m Gabriel (using part of MLE)
$4.0m Skal (using Bird Rights)
$25.9m for 5 new players

TOTAL: $137.9m (15 players), but Portland would still have most of the MLE left as long as they don't go over the hardcap line.

Projected cap ~$115m, so tax line would be ~$139m & hard cap would be ~$145m

Art.

 

[Serbian]

Ariza has been a huge deal for this. Perfect player for Dame. We got a legit good strong defender that can guard 1 through 4. He is also good hitting open 3s. He doesn’t show lots on stat sheet but he is vital, esp when you got Nuclear Dame on your team

 

[Lanny]

Which playoff team NEEDS a player to average 50 points in order to win?

What player on earth can make 50 points consistently during the playoffs? This was my question.

 

[Blazers Roy]

What player on earth can make 50 points consistently during the playoffs? This was my question.

No one. That was my point lol. That's why our recent showings do not reflect our ceiling this season.

 

[e_blazer]

No one. That was my point lol. That's why our recent showings do not reflect our ceiling this season.

I can see that side of the discussion, but why then are the worst losses of the season often used by some to show that the team isn’t a contender? Isn’t the truth something of an average?

 

[Orion Bailey]

Back and fully healthy to me means having worked through the initial doubts of "back on the court" injury recovery. Are we a contender when fully healthy? Yes. With Hood, next season. Without some major aligning of superstars and the other teams remain about the same. Chemistry and comfortably is huge. It takes time. Will the players give it time and come back? We shall see.

But this...

Dame/Simons
CJ/Trent JR
Ariza/Hood/Hoard
Collins/Melo/Little
Nurk/Whiteside/Skal

...is a contender.

 

[wizenheimer]

I can see that side of the discussion, but why then are the worst losses of the season often used by some to show that the team isn’t a contender? Isn’t the truth something of an average?

teams are never as bad as their worst game or as good as their best games. Neither should be used as a gauge. And most teams go thru bad stretches and good stretches. Those probably aren't good gauges either

in 2017, Portland closed the season on a 17-6 run, beating a lot of good teams. They then got swept in the playoffs losing the games by an average of 18 points. The 17-6 stretch didn't mean they were a good team

the following season, over a 7 week stretch from mid Feb thru April 1, the Blazers had a 13 game win streak, and went 19-4. They then went 1-4 to close the season and got swept by the Pelicans. Looks like the 1-4 was more predictive than the 2 month hot streak

Blazers have won 4 in a row and 7 of the last 10. But before that they were 16-24. Might not be wise to just ignore 40 games and focus on 10

 

[JDC]

teams are never as bad as their worst game or as good as their best games. Neither should be used as a gauge. And most teams go thru bad stretches and good stretches. Those probably aren't good gauges either

in 2017, Portland closed the season on a 17-6 run, beating a lot of good teams. They then got swept in the playoffs losing the games by an average of 18 points. The 17-6 stretch didn't mean they were a good team

the following season, over a 7 week stretch from mid Feb thru April 1, the Blazers had a 13 game win streak, and went 19-4. They then went 1-4 to close the season and got swept by the Pelicans. Looks like the 1-4 was more predictive than the 2 month hot streak

Blazers have won 4 in a row and 7 of the last 10. But before that they were 16-24. Might not be wise to just ignore 40 games and focus on 10

It's all about being healthy and playing well at the right time. Matchups also play a part.

All of those factors were working against them in 2018.

There's reason for optimism that those factors could be trending in the right direction come April/May this year--potentially even more than last year.

 

[borim69]

Are we a contender? Doubt it, but what we have seen the past few games is pretty impressive you have to admit. 2 weeks running and Dame is averaging 11 assists a game that means that whoever Dame is passing too is actually making the shot. This is something we did not see with last years team not with any real consistency. Last years team who would actually leave Harkless, Aminu and the great Evan Turner open to double team Dame.....Everyone. As a coach would you leave Melo open to double team Dame? Maybe he is old and his shot is not what it used to be until he starts burning you. Would you leave Ariza open to double team Dame? Yes until he starts to burn you because he can actually put the ball on the floor and make basketball moves like dribble which both Harkless and Aminu could not do with any consistency. Turner could but he could not put the ball in the hoop so no real threat there.
Coaches once they find a weakness to your greatest threat will exploit that year after year. Hack a Shaq comes to mind if he could actually make charity shots do you think they would have continued that? Our weakness is not as great as it was last year I think our Shaq has learned how to make foul shots.

 

[stampedehero]

Collins with the shoulder and Nurk mending a serious compound ankle fracture. If any of you had serious injuries, you'll know recovery is not instant success. Since these are pro athletes, the team rehab is better than what we would go through but expectations are usually calculated and tagged with caution due to re occurrence of the same or similar injuries that could happen. The one player that had an encyclopedia of bad luck was Allen Iverson.