When have you been less excited for the start of a Blazers season?

[blazerkor]

Odds of drafting an NBA All-Star at different draft positions:

Top Picks

• 1st overall pick: 65.33% chance of becoming an All-Star
• 2nd overall pick: 42.67% chance
• 3rd overall pick: 45.33% chance
• 4th overall pick: 34.21% chance

Lottery Picks (1-14)

• Overall, lottery picks (1-14) have a 28.3% chance of becoming an All-Star

Later First Round

• Picks 15-30 have an 8.2% chance of becoming an All-Star

Second Round

• Second round picks have a 2.6% chance of becoming an All-Star

If your best internal capability is scouting and judging how successful draft picks will be, it is clear that your best opportunity to find success is to draft as high as possible.

Damn, this sure makes it seem like securing the very best odds and getting lucky enough to pick first drastically increases a team's likelihood to pick an all star. I mean better than two out of every three, first pick becomes an All-Star while no other pick is even a 50/50 chance.

This really kills the argument of people questioning the value of tanking.

 

[andalusian]

This really kills the argument of people questioning the value of tanking.

IIRC, in the current system you only get a max of 14% t the #1 pick, so the #1 vs #2/#3 pick is irrelevant

 

[Phatguysrule]

IIRC, in the current system you only get a max of 14% t the #1 pick, so the #1 vs #2/#3 pick is irrelevant

You definitely want one of those top 4 picks as often as you can get them though.

 

[andalusian]

You definitely want one of those top 4 picks as often as you can get them though.

No arguments there. Just the #1 vs #2/#3

 

[blazerkor]

No arguments there. Just the #1 vs #2/#3

Yeah as long as we have one of the bottom three records in the league, then our team has done the prudent thing.

 

[jlprk]

Every current Blazer fan is sacrificing his happiness for the far future. Raise your children to appreciate us 2020s pioneers, when they bask in their 2050s horn of plenty.

 

[SharpeScooterShooter]

I remember that name. But your individual personality never registered with me. I just remember the name. You have Sharper opinions now. Oh I just got it. You must live in Bend.

I was also OB which was banned for continuously starting drama…years ago.
No I don't live in bend. I live in Canby. Used to live in se pdx.

 

[wizenheimer]

This is what it comes down to. Hard tanking for a number one or generational talent is all but ensuring a losing team for many years

I'm not even sure what "hard tanking" means

I guess it might mean what happened last year when the Blazers had Ant-Grant-Ayton-Brogdon-Thybulle-Sharpe-Camara and set the standards of being 8 games under .500 while 20 games into the season; 14 under 30 games into the season; 17 under .500 halfway thru; and 21 games under .500 by the trade deadline. At that point, Portland was 11 games behind 10th seed with the 5th worst record in the league. And they hadn't really started the full speed tank yet....but then they did.

they had dug that hole while using those veterans that so many here are opposed to moving. To me, moving those kinds of veterans: highly paid players who don't have the talent to alter a team's trajectory in any positive way, except peripherally, isn't a hard tank; and it sure the fuck isn't a hard choice...it's an organic tank with the purpose to trying to find the kind of talent that does alter trajectories

Where as its still a crapshoot and requires luck to field a competitive team and then somehow find the pieces needed to take it to the next level and win a ring. But this way provides a team that goes to the playoffs more often than not and wins more often than not..

lol...yeah, that's the ticket! Portland had 11 seasons with Damian Lilllard. 11 seasons when they were supposedly trying to "find the pieces needed to take it to the next level and win a ring". How'd they do? They didn't find a single player that could help Dame take the team to another level. And that's the kind of purgatory you seem to be advocating. The only difference is the Blazers don't have a Dame+Aldridge or a Dame+CJ or a Dame+Nurkic...they have an Ant+Ayton; a level of purgatory much worse than any with Dame because not only do they lack a top-10 talent, they don't even have an all-star talent. All they have is flawed, role-playing talent....or worse

the only fucking way to "find the pieces needed to take it to the next level and win a ring" with an existing core of Ant-Grant-Ayton is to find two all NBA players + an all-star. New additions good enough to send those three guys to the bench or to another team. Why wait?

 

[Cugel]

I have now accepted the fact that both Grant and Simons will be starters on opening night. Maybe at the trade deadline someone will take a flier on one or, ideally, both of them. I anticipate both being overly ball dominant to buoy their stats. My bet is the season looks a lot like last year. The losses don't really bother me but key young guys not getting enough minutes would be infuriating. Then CB will probably jump ship in June 2025.

 

[SharpeScooterShooter]

I'm not even sure what "hard tanking" means

I guess it might mean what happened last year when the Blazers had Ant-Grant-Ayton-Brogdon-Thybulle-Sharpe-Camara and set the standards of being 8 games under .500 while 20 games into the season; 14 under 30 games into the season; 17 under .500 halfway thru; and 21 games under .500 by the trade deadline. At that point, Portland was 11 games behind 10th seed with the 5th worst record in the league. And they hadn't really started the full speed tank yet....but then they did.

they had dug that hole while using those veterans that so many here are opposed to moving. To me, moving those kinds of veterans: highly paid players who don't have the talent to alter a team's trajectory in any positive way, except peripherally, isn't a hard tank; and it sure the fuck isn't a hard choice...it's an organic tank with the purpose to trying to find the kind of talent that does alter trajectories



lol...yeah, that's the ticket! Portland had 11 seasons with Damian Lilllard. 11 seasons when they were supposedly trying to "find the pieces needed to take it to the next level and win a ring". How'd they do? They didn't find a single player that could help Dame take the team to another level. And that's the kind of purgatory you seem to be advocating. The only difference is the Blazers don't have a Dame+Aldridge or a Dame+CJ or a Dame+Nurkic...they have an Ant+Ayton; a level of purgatory much worse than any with Dame because not only do they lack a top-10 talent, they don't even have an all-star talent. All they have is flawed, role-playing talent....or worse

the only fucking way to "find the pieces needed to take it to the next level and win a ring" with an existing core of Ant-Grant-Ayton is to find two all NBA players + an all-star. New additions good enough to send those three guys to the bench or to another team. Why wait?

So you are an Olshey fan and believe he did everything he could to put quality around Dame?

Arent you one of the biggest critics of him? Hanging onto cj for soo long?

Now maybe there truly was nothing better, but im not betting on it with Ego Olshey

Second, Dame is defensively flawed, which as a forum, the general consensus is that that makes it mich harder to build around a ball dominant guard with no d.

However with a balanced core, yes i believe its very possible.

 

[Whyachi]

I have now accepted the fact that both Grant and Simons will be starters on opening night. Maybe at the trade deadline someone will take a flier on one or, ideally, both of them. I anticipate both being overly ball dominant to buoy their stats. My bet is the season looks a lot like last year. The losses don't really bother me but key young guys not getting enough minutes would be infuriating. Then CB will probably jump ship in June 2025.

Soul Asylum hit song Somebody to shove, the chorus is "Waiting by the phone".

if nobody is calling to trade for current Blazers, the Front Office will keep baking cakes and sending out flyers.

 

[Phatguysrule]

I have now accepted the fact that both Grant and Simons will be starters on opening night. Maybe at the trade deadline someone will take a flier on one or, ideally, both of them. I anticipate both being overly ball dominant to buoy their stats. My bet is the season looks a lot like last year. The losses don't really bother me but key young guys not getting enough minutes would be infuriating. Then CB will probably jump ship in June 2025.

What a disaster.

 

[wizenheimer]

So you are an Olshey fan and believe did everything he could to put a quality around Dame?

Arent you one of the biggest critics of him? Hanging onto cj for soo long?.

you might want to look up sarcasm in the dictionary because your interpretation of what I said is terrible

to make it simpler for you: I think your suggestion that a mediocre to middle-of-a-pack team is a better foundation for building a contender than a series of high draft picks is nonsense. That's what Portland theoretically tried to do during Dame's 11 seasons, although the reality is Olshey never really tried because he was so obsessed with the mirage of CJ's elite talent

 

[SharpeScooterShooter]

you might want to look up sarcasm in the dictionary because your interpretation of what I said is terrible

to make it simpler for you: I think your suggestion that a mediocre to middle-of-a-pack team is a better foundation for building a contender than a series of high draft picks is nonsense. That's what Portland theoretically tried to do during Dame's 11 seasons, although the reality is Olshey never really tried because he was so obsessed with the mirage of CJ's elite talent

Wow man.
Okay. First, whoever said or implied my opinion was a better foundation???
once you have answered that, ill refer you to your terrible interpretation comment.. and say that comment fits your very post here….

I asked you questions so how can you even know how i interpreted it????

ffs….

 

[SharpeScooterShooter]

Why is posting in demeaning and downgrading ways so fucking popular????

wtf is wrong with todays lack of respectful communication???

Only on the internet….

 

[wizenheimer]

Wow man.
Okay. First, whoever said or implied my opinion was a better foundation???
once you have answered that, ill refer you to your terrible interpretation comment.. and say that comment fits your very post here….

I asked you questions so how can you even know how i interpreted it????

ffs….

I quoted what you said in a previous post I made

 

[SharpeScooterShooter]

I quoted what you said in a previous post I made

In not one of those quotes did i say my way was better, so i ask again. When did i say my way was better?

are you misinterpreting me by chance?

I have maintained that either way is a crapshoot.
I have also tried to explain that some people prefer playoffs over a crapshoot that ensures a minimum of a few years in the cellar.

This is not my opinion alone, though Im not opposed to tanking for a few years, which we have done We now have several lottery players we dont know yet where their ceiling will land and a couple future firsts.

What im saying is there are some that would like to now try to win to see what we have. Some of us believe if the guys we have pop like we hope, that we then only need to find that last pc or two. This team is incredibly young and needs time to grow. All just my opinion.

 

[HoopsFanAZ]

I’m looking forward to the season and seeing how Avdija, Clingan, Scoot and Sharpe play. Add in Camara, Rupert and the bench crew. I am hoping for one trade prior to the first game … unlikely, I realize. The losses won’t be fun, but how the next generation of Blazers figure it out is worth it. Hate to say it, but I expect lottery picks in both 25 and 26.

 

[Phatguysrule]

I’m looking forward to the season and seeing how Avdija, Clingan, Scoot and Sharpe play. Add in Camara, Rupert and the bench crew. I am hoping for one trade prior to the first game … unlikely, I realize. The losses won’t be fun, but how the next generation of Blazers figure it out is worth it. Hate to say it, but I expect lottery picks in both 25 and 26.

We need to lose. A lot. We need the worst record in the league. At least bottom 3. The only thing that should stop that is Sharpe or Scoot popping.

We should not allow Simons or Grant to contribute to any wins.

We need great picks both of the next two seasons.

 

[Whyachi]

Locked on Blazers spent a half-hour in a Jerami Grant stats & analysis loop.

... then the needle came off the record

"Blazers have no incentive to trade Jerami Grant." - "He's not in the way! He's not in the way! He's not taking opportunities away from anyone else. He's not in the waaay!"

Mike misses the point why Blazer fans jumped on the trade Jerami bandwagon. He's a talented veteran that can get picks & young players back in a trade. Which can amplify the success of a rebuild.

 

[e_blazer]

We need to lose. A lot. We need the worst record in the league. At least bottom 3. The only thing that should stop that is Sharpe or Scoot popping.

We should not allow Simons or Grant to contribute to any wins.

We need great picks both of the next two seasons.

I’ll give you one thing, Phats; you are not a flip-flopper on this subject.

 

[sheed30]

I’ll give you one thing, Phats; you are not a flip-flopper on this subject.

That was a nice way of you saying he repeated himself 20585 times already lol

 

[STOMP]

Mike misses the point why Blazer fans jumped on the trade Jerami bandwagon. He's a talented veteran that can get picks & young players back in a trade. Which can amplify the success of a rebuild.

At his salary, I think you're overestimating his trade value. If he is moved this year I will be very pleasantly surprised if they get much of anything back that we really want especially in draft capital

STOMP

 

[Phatguysrule]

I’ll give you one thing, Phats; you are not a flip-flopper on this subject.

It's absolutely critical for the next decade. Imagine having 2 more guys with potential like Sharpe. We can have thst. It's right there in our grasp and we won't get thst opportunity for at least another decade plus unless we fail spectacularly.

I don't know how anybody can look at this opportunity to add potentially 2 more future Stars to the team and come to any other conclusion. There is no potential payoff in doing anything else.

 

[Phatguysrule]

At his salary, I think you're overestimating his trade value. If he is moved this year I will be very pleasantly surprised if they get much of anything back that we really want especially in draft capital

STOMP

Even if it's only a 2nd rounder that's more valuable than having him be the difference between a win over Detroit and a loss.

I think we'll get more than a second rounder, but we need lotto odds more than anything.

If our young guys pop and that prevents us from losing to the worst teams that's acceptable, IMO. But that's the only reason.

 

[kjironman1]

There is no potential payoff in doing anything else.

This is inherently false but you seem dead set on this so keep saying it. Maybe people will begin to believe you.

 

[Phatguysrule]

This is inherently false but you seem dead set on this so keep saying it. Maybe people will begin to believe you.

Okay. Great. Perhaps that's the misunderstanding. What's the potential payoff in the next 2 years?

We keep everything and make the play-in (at absolute best) both years and draft 13 both years? How does that help anything?

 

[PtldPlatypus]

If our young guys pop and that prevents us from losing to the worst teams that's acceptable, IMO. But that's the only reason.

For clarity's sake, would you be willing to specify precisely which young guys you'd accept contributing to victories, and how many of the worst teams it's OK for our young guys to beat? Scoot/Sharpe/Clingan, obvs; Camara/Murray/Rupert, I assume. Anyone else?

 

[Phatguysrule]

For clarity's sake, would you be willing to specify precisely which young guys you'd accept contributing to victories, and how many of the worst teams it's OK for our young guys to beat? Scoot/Sharpe/Clingan, obvs; Camara/Murray/Rupert, I assume. Anyone else?

Specifically not Grant or Simons. I'm in the middle on Ayton because he physically has the tools to be one of the best centers in NBA. I just don't know if his mentality will ever come around. I'm not sure. I'm leaning toward thinking it would be best to trade Ayton as well, but I'm not 100%.

 

[Pinwheel1]

I can't wait for the season to start! Just not excited that every discussion will be derailed by "tanking".

Maybe we should have a thread for all things tanking. Every game that we lose they can have a place to celebrate, and every game we win they have a place to vent. Dumping/trading any players who would help with the cause can be discussed there.

Then all the other threads can just be about........anything else.