Which former all-star will Blazers trade for?

[discovery69]

In the 12/29, Trail Blazer Courtside, Mike Barrett predicted:

• Trail Blazers will make a blockbuster deal right before the trade deadline using Raef LaFrenz’s contract to land a "former" all-star

• I assume any blockbuster will not involve Roy, Aldridge and Oden.
• It will not be someone 30 and over so they can grow with the big three.
• It will fill a PG or SF position.

I took 57 all-stars from 2003-2008 (i.e. 2002 and later you get into 30+ yr old players) and went through the process of elimination:

• Current All Stars (24 players)
• 30 and over (20 players)
• Big three (i.e. PGs & SFs) - any blockbuster would fill a position not occupied by Roy, LaMarcus or Greg - (5 players)
• Playoff bound teams - these stars would probably require giving up one of the big three (5 players)
• Team Culture and Position Preferences - (e.g. PGs - pass first, shoot second) (2 players)

Best Guess Final Result:

• Caron Butler

Four best guess trade scenarios:

• Portland & Washington
  • Outgoing: LaFrenz, Outlaw & Rodriguez - Incoming: Butler, Thomas, Crittenton
• Portland - Golden State - Washington
  • Outgoing: LaFrenz, Outlaw & Randolph - Incoming: Butler, Turiaf & Randolph
• Portland - Charlotte - Washington
  • Outgoing: LaFrenz & Outlaw - Incoming: Butler & Thomas
• Portland - Sacramento - Charlotte - Washington
  • Outgoing: Raef LaFrenz - Incoming: Caron Butler

For details you can see the following link or just ignore it:
http://www.clubblazers.com/blazer-blogs/what-former-all-star-will-portland-trade-for-t1503.html

 

[julius]

I'm glad you did the work to figure that out. I would've been confused after about 3 minutes.

Thanks for the link.

 

[alex42083]

I'd be all over getting Caron Butler if he's willing to accept being a role player here. He can play a little point forward, bring the ball up and ease the pressure off of Roy a bit. He's only 28, he can shoot and defend, does a little bit of everything. He can be a slasher too which is what we need. And he's one of those fallen stars on a bad team that KP always said he targets.

 

[mook]

I don't know that you can immediately exclude current All Stars just because Rice says it's a "former All Star." Rice isn't exactly a surgeon with the English language, and he might have just meant, "A guy who is normally an All Star but likely wouldn't be on our team." So next year the guy might be a former All Star, although this year he isn't.

You exclude Rashard Lewis because we wouldn't want a PF, SG or Center. But Lewis is really a natural SF, and you could argue he could fit in here. (I don't think it's likely, though.)

Also, I'm not really sure "former all-star" excludes guys over 30. LaFrentz' contract is going to go away anyhow. If you could trade him for, say, Steve Nash or Tracy McGrady, is it really such a bad thing? You ride him for a year or two, and when their contract is eventually due for renewal, you use that expiring contract to trade that guy again for another over-30 All Star.

I don't know that I'd target McGrady or Nash specifically. I just don't see why we shouldn't parlay a completely broken down overpaid vet (LaFrentz) for an overpaid vet on the downside of his career, but with still a lot left in the tank and a lot of playoff experience.

Obviously, I'd prefer Butler or somebody more in our long-term window.

Anyway, it's an interesting thought experiment, and it's cool you put it together. I'm sniping a bit at your thinking, but I'll admit I could be equally wrong with my points.

I hope you are right, though. I'd love to add Caron to this team.

 

[Shooter]

I like the fact that Outlaw is part of the deal in 3 of your scenarios. The team's basketball I.Q. goes way up the moment he leaves.

 

[MIXUM]

ive said it since pre season...if we wanna make the playoffs..we need a scoring/vet at the SF spot.

webster can backup at the SF spot. Batum will become a DNP

 

[Sedatedfork]

Richard Hamilton and Shawn Marion may also fit your criteria.

 

[BatumKaboom]

Very curious! I cannot wait to see who we get.

 

[Sedatedfork]

Nevermind -- I clicked the link and saw the process of elimination.

 

[talman]

Nice work--thanks for the interesting read! I'd be very happy with Butler!

 

[barfo]

I don't know that you can immediately exclude current All Stars just because Rice says it's a "former All Star." Rice isn't exactly a surgeon with the English language, and he might have just meant, "A guy who is normally an All Star but likely wouldn't be on our team." So next year the guy might be a former All Star, although this year he isn't.

According to discovery69, it was Barrett, not Rice, who said that. And as we know, Barrett is a surgeon with the English language.

I think he could possibly have meant "was an all-star last year but will not be this year".

barfo

 

[Rastapopoulos]

I don't see the Wizards parting with Butler (even though they just won a big game with him out) - with Gilbert Arenas perpetually out with injury he's their only relatively young star. No, I see them wanting to move Antawn Jamison.

Here's a trade that works:

Wizards give up:
Jamison ($9.9M, 4yrs)
DeShawn Stevenson ($3.6M, 2yrs)
Etan Thomas ($6.9M, 2yrs)

Blazers give up Raef's contract, Channing and Outlaw.

It's actually easier to work this without Raef's contract, and this isn't obviously in the Blazers' favor. But Jamison makes a lot more sense to the Wiz than Butler.

PROS:
Consolidation for Portland: instead of 3 young SFs, we now have one and a backup (Martell and Batum)
Improved backup PF: Jamison (who is a former all-star) > Channing
Jamison is a better "featured scorer" with the second team because he's famous for not holding up the ball.
Stevenson is a tough, strong guy with a reputation for defense to put on the chunkier swingmen in the league (LeBron, Bryant).
Thomas, the NBA's foremost anti-war poet, comes to his spiritual home.

CONS:
Jamison is not as good as Outlaw at creating his own shot
Outlaw is everybody's buddy and brings the team together
Jamison sulked when a backup with Dallas

Alternatively, I can see us targeting Kirilenko:

Here's the trade:

Raef, Channing, Ike and Outlaw or Webster
for
Kirilenko and Harpring (as a salary dump)

I really think Kirilenko would be perfect off the bench with the Spaniards as part of a scrambling, pressing squad, and also plays better at PF, replicating some of the advantages of the previous suggestion. He's already moved into a backup role for Utah, and his game has rebounded as a result.

[Edit: I just read your expanded reasoning, and I see you rule out Jamison because he's over 30 and Kirilenko because he's playoff-bound. I think the Jazz are more likely to make a move simply because they know they're going to be shaken up by Boozer opting out, and I also think the Blazers can afford to take on an older player as a sort of "transition" guy: taking us to a higher level until Aldridge is a solid all-star and Batum is older and wiser. I think my reason for ruling out Butler (that is: what else have the Wizards got? You have to assume that they're just giving up on the NBA) is at least as compelling.]

 

[discovery69]

Mook, no problem, I looked at Rashard Lewis, but seriously if you are a playoff team like Orlando would you be making a trade before the deadline with one of your big three.

I'm a newbie on this site, but some of you know who I am from other sites. Anyway....

My inside source told me the Blazers will be a better team then they are now after the trade deadline, but wouldn't tell me who (i.e. cost them their job), but did tell me all the clues I need are already out there.

If you put all the clues together:
- Mike Rice said earlier this year Blazers are looking for a 28 years or younger veteran who has playoff experience.
- Pritchard said he is looking for a player that will fit team culture and be that 3rd or 4th team scorer that will take pressure off of Roy and Aldridge.
- Top three franchise players - Roy, Aldridge & Oden - that would mean a PG or SF
- Nate wants his point guards to be "pass first, shoot second", so it will mean a SF is targeted
- Barratt predicts former all-star

Caron Butler is my guess

 

[THE HCP]

Marbury!!!!!!!!!

 

[barfo]

Mook, no problem, I looked at Rashard Lewis, but seriously if you are a playoff team like Orlando would you be making a trade before the deadline with one of your big three.

I'm a newbie on this site, but some of you know who I am from other sites. Anyway....

My inside source told me the Blazers will be a better team then they are now after the trade deadline, but wouldn't tell me who (i.e. cost them their job), but did tell me all the clues I need are already out there.

If you put all the clues together:
- Mike Rice said earlier this year Blazers are looking for a 28 years or younger veteran who has playoff experience.
- Pritchard said he is looking for a player that will fit team culture and be that 3rd or 4th team scorer that will take pressure off of Roy and Aldridge.
- Top three franchise players - Roy, Aldridge & Oden - that would mean a PG or SF
- Nate wants his point guards to be "pass first, shoot second", so it will mean a SF is targeted
- Barratt predicts former all-star

Caron Butler is my guess

It's a good guess and I for one appreciate the work you did on this!

My only question is whether former all-star really means 'not an all-star in 2008' as opposed to 'might not be an all-star in 2009'.

barfo

 

[discovery69]

Rastapopoulos, Jamison would be interesting, but isn't he more of a PF than SF?

Kirilenko would be good, but I don't see Utah making a trade with a division rival right now (maybe the summer time) especially when both Portland and Utah could very well be competing for the last playoff spot.

 

[illmatic99]

My inside source told me the Blazers will be a better team then they are now after the trade deadline,....

Maybe that's because we'll be at full strength again by then. Butler would be awesome, though.

Does anyone have a link to a podcast of that Courtside?

 

[Nikolokolus]

Mook, no problem, I looked at Rashard Lewis, but seriously if you are a playoff team like Orlando would you be making a trade before the deadline with one of your big three.

I'm a newbie on this site, but some of you know who I am from other sites. Anyway....

My inside source told me the Blazers will be a better team then they are now after the trade deadline, but wouldn't tell me who (i.e. cost them their job), but did tell me all the clues I need are already out there.

If you put all the clues together:
- Mike Rice said earlier this year Blazers are looking for a 28 years or younger veteran who has playoff experience.
- Pritchard said he is looking for a player that will fit team culture and be that 3rd or 4th team scorer that will take pressure off of Roy and Aldridge.
- Top three franchise players - Roy, Aldridge & Oden - that would mean a PG or SF
- Nate wants his point guards to be "pass first, shoot second", so it will mean a SF is targeted
- Barratt predicts former all-star

Caron Butler is my guess

That's not a bad guess based on your selection criteria. I'm still holding out hope for Gerald Wallace myself, but I guess we'll see what happens.

 

[MARIS61]

Blockbuster implies getting a much better player than is mentioned in this thread so far.

I disagree with all 3 assumptions made by the OP.

Blockbuster also implies we lose someone very good, which I'd hate to see.

JUST BAKE IT!

 

[MARIS61]

My guess, if it happens, would be we get a PF in his 30's.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Blockbuster implies getting a much better player than is mentioned in this thread so far.

I disagree with all 3 assumptions made by the OP.

Blockbuster also implies we lose someone very good, which I'd hate to see.

JUST BAKE IT!

Do you even watch basketball?

 

[mook]

Blockbuster also implies we lose someone very good, which I'd hate to see.

JUST BAKE IT!

Not really. The Scottie Pippen trade was definitely a blockbuster. What good player did we lose in that deal?

 

[Rastapopoulos]

If you put all the clues together:
- Mike Rice said earlier this year Blazers are looking for a 28 years or younger veteran who has playoff experience.

When did he say this? Did he say this in the same conversation when Barrett said there would be a trade, or is this from a different time? Did he say it as one privy to inside information, or as someone speculating out of his ass?

- Top three franchise players - Roy, Aldridge & Oden - that would mean a PG or SF

Not necessarily. You're assuming this would be a starter, but we picked up Rudy when we already have Roy, and nobody questioned that move.

- Nate wants his point guards to be "pass first, shoot second", so it will mean a SF is targeted

I'm not sure I understand this reasoning. Are you saying that there are no PFSS PGs out there that are (a) available and (b) better than what we've got?

- Barratt predicts former all-star

...like Jamison or Kirilenko!

 

[mook]

According to discovery69, it was Barrett, not Rice, who said that. And as we know, Barrett is a surgeon with the English language.

Ah. I see.

I think he could possibly have meant "was an all-star last year but will not be this year".

That seems pretty reasonable too.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Rastapopoulos, Jamison would be interesting, but isn't he more of a PF than SF?

Yes, which is the point. I see Batum as our SF of the future (with Martell as the backup) because he will be Tayshaun Prince with better offense, whereas when we're giving minutes to Ike Diogu at backup PF, we're in trouble.

Kirilenko would be good, but I don't see Utah making a trade with a division rival right now (maybe the summer time) especially when both Portland and Utah could very well be competing for the last playoff spot.

That's a very good point. I just wonder how they'll react to Boozer's announcement that he'll opt out (which Larry Miller referred to as "the stupidest thing he'd ever heard" - not likely to warm Boozer to Utah). I think they're only happy to keep a high-paid non-star like Kirilenko if they can see him as a glue player on a contender. But if Boozer leaves, they'll likely stick with Millsap but want more scoring from other positions, which Outlaw/Webster could give them. Also, I see them wanting to dump salary. Isn't the owner a car dealer? Not a happy time for them...

 

[Nikolokolus]

When did he say this? Did he say this in the same conversation when Barrett said there would be a trade, or is this from a different time? Did he say it as one privy to inside information, or as someone speculating out of his ass?

This was said at the tail end of the courtside broadcast from this past week, and when the topic was brought up, the other two guys in studio started shushing Barrett in a "don't let the cat out of the bag, 'cause we'll get in trouble" kind of way.

Not necessarily. You're assuming this would be a starter, but we picked up Rudy when we already have Roy, and nobody questioned that move.

Why on earth would KP make a "big" move for a backup using Raef's expiring deal?

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Not really. The Scottie Pippen trade was definitely a blockbuster. What good player did we lose in that deal?

The Wizard!

 

[Masbee]

I don't know that you can immediately exclude current All Stars just because Rice says it's a "former All Star." Rice isn't exactly a surgeon with the English language, and he might have just meant, "A guy who is normally an All Star but likely wouldn't be on our team." So next year the guy might be a former All Star, although this year he isn't.

You exclude Rashard Lewis because we wouldn't want a PF, SG or Center. But Lewis is really a natural SF, and you could argue he could fit in here. (I don't think it's likely, though.)

Also, I'm not really sure "former all-star" excludes guys over 30. LaFrentz' contract is going to go away anyhow. If you could trade him for, say, Steve Nash or Tracy McGrady, is it really such a bad thing? You ride him for a year or two, and when their contract is eventually due for renewal, you use that expiring contract to trade that guy again for another over-30 All Star.

I don't know that I'd target McGrady or Nash specifically. I just don't see why we shouldn't parlay a completely broken down overpaid vet (LaFrentz) for an overpaid vet on the downside of his career, but with still a lot left in the tank and a lot of playoff experience.

Obviously, I'd prefer Butler or somebody more in our long-term window.

Anyway, it's an interesting thought experiment, and it's cool you put it together. I'm sniping a bit at your thinking, but I'll admit I could be equally wrong with my points.

I hope you are right, though. I'd love to add Caron to this team.

Ha, you mirrored my thoughts reading the original post pretty closely.

To recap:

When he said "former" All-Star, who knows what Rice really meant. Could mean a player that was on the team last year, but has no shot of making it this season.

I would not exclude Over 30 "former" All-Stars, as getting a vet at the end of their career, who has a big contract that will expire in a couple years, is just extending the time-frame for hanging on to Raef's expiring. Getting the under 30 all-star is ideal, but may not be available. In which case, certain 30+ vets would be worth an experiment, with little to lose but RLEC.

And, finally, I would not get too hung up on position. Many of the best players can play two positions passably well. Now a 4, could slide to 3, in the Mook example of Lewis. And, if we trade for a "former" all-star, it may be they are a 6th Man. Kinda like Antwan Jamison was for a successful Dallas team a few years back.

 

[SheedSoNasty]

Butler would fit the bill more than Jamison or Kirilenko, IMO. He's a versatile defender that can play a pseudo point forward role while easing some pressure off of our guards. He would complement Roy and eventually Bayless fairly well while not taking much away from them.

Washington has been dreadful this year and might be looking to re-tool. However, things are going to get nasty in Utah and they might want to clear out some space.

OR, it could just mean that we're going after Jamaal Magloire. I hear that he's pretty good.

 

[julius]

Butler would fit the bill more than Jamison or Kirilenko, IMO. He's a versatile defender that can play a pseudo point forward role while easing some pressure off of our guards. He would complement Roy and eventually Bayless fairly well while not taking much away from them.

Washington has been dreadful this year and might be looking to re-tool. However, things are going to get nasty in Utah and they might want to clear out some space.

OR, it could just mean that we're going after Jamaal Magloire. I hear that he's pretty good.

Remember, he was an All Star once.